Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Kaliningrad secession talks

YES!!!

Kaliningrad is one of those obscure places I find fascinating and have researched about. A piece of Russia that used to be a part of Germany and is surrounded by NATO countries.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At this point it's abundantly clear that Russia should have shut off its internet for the duration of the war and that if they had the capacity to knock out Ukraine's internet, they should have done so. How the hell is an army supposed to keep operational security and secrecy if anybody with a smartphone can record troop and vehicle movements and upload it to Twitter/Telegram/etc immediately?

Cope.

I don't need to cope, I'm not Russian. China is not a party to this conflict. However there are surely valuable lessons to be learned, and the PLA should be carefully studying and analyzing this campaign to figure out what worked, what didn't, and what should have been done, and to adjust accordingly.

If you had to guess, what lessons do you think there are to be learned from this in general?

It's still early, I'm no expert, and obviously I don't have all the information, but a few things I've noticed:

-Russia may have assumed that Ukrainian resistance would collapse quickly and/or there were supporters in Ukraine like in 2014. Neither of these materialized and should not have been counted on.
-The "lightning strike", paratrooper drop, and amphibious landing attempts to take cities have generally failed. But there have been successes taking cities in the south which seem to come from a more conventional land attack from the Crimea. Maybe Russia's strategy should not have centered on the former.
-Aforementioned point on operational secrecy. Also cut off enemy's internet if at all possible, Zelensky has used it to great effect to boost morale and will to fight.
-The Ukrainian air force should have been destroyed on the ground on day 1. The fact that it still flies is incredible. The Russians should have learned this the hard way when the Germans destroyed 2000+ airplanes on day 1 of Barbarossa and it basically let them run wild for 6 months.
-The attack may have generated the public will in the West for sanctions that will affect their daily lives and direct intervention is even creeping into the conversation. As of last week it was conventional wisdom that Europe wouldn't risk seeing surges in energy prices but now it seems like they are willing to endure it. This is also too early to call as the sanctions haven't been felt on either side, but Chinese in particular may have discounted this kind of reaction from the West given that to them wearing masks is an intolerable burden to curb COVID.

Thanks for the detailed reply.
Doubtless, I feel the Russians would have succeeded if they had done this all. Fortunately for Ukraine, and unfortunately for Russia, hindsight is 20/20.

[Storr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNONews/status/1498160630209126400

https://twitter.com/sajlent555/status/1498161854614495232?s=20&t=KF6umTBApJR...

[brucejoel99]

Russian column in Melitopol. It would be a shame if the Russians ever figured out to keep their vehicles a few hundred meters apart in convoys.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498167214423396354

Standard tactical adaptation like that takes time, coordination, & communication. It'd be a challenge for any force of this size to adopt new methods in a war zone. There may be adaptation in units that've already taken losses, but many units are just being completely incapacitated through combat. Basically, few units capable of undergoing such an adaptation at this early stage are surviving, & command isn't organized enough to mitigate risks by micromanaging standardized tactics.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Russian column in Melitopol. It would be a shame if the Russians ever figured out to keep their vehicles a few hundred meters apart in convoys.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498167214423396354?s=20&t=KF6umTBAp...

Couldn't we just send the Ukrainians a squadron of A-10's?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNONews/status/1498160630209126400

You can't have a stock market crash without stocks being traded. Absolutely brilliant.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I sort of wonder if the Suez crisis felt a little like this in real time. On one hand, the stakes here are obviously higher due to the extreme irrationality of the aggressor power. On the other hand, at least in this case there was already a general sense among sane people that Russia's glory days were behind it, whereas my understanding of the events of 1956 was that many people still thought of Britain as a more or less equal partner to the USA and USSR until it tried to intervene in Egypt and got soundly thrashed by a bunch of pissed-off Arab nationalist boat pilots.

[Joseph Cao]

At this point it's abundantly clear that Russia should have shut off its internet for the duration of the war and that if they had the capacity to knock out Ukraine's internet, they should have done so. How the hell is an army supposed to keep operational security and secrecy if anybody with a smartphone can record troop and vehicle movements and upload it to Twitter/Telegram/etc immediately?

Cope.

I don't need to cope, I'm not Russian. China is not a party to this conflict. However there are surely valuable lessons to be learned, and the PLA should be carefully studying and analyzing this campaign to figure out what worked, what didn't, and what should have been done, and to adjust accordingly.

I for one fervently hope that the PLA's grasp of military tactics is actively harmed by this campaign, that they learn all the wrong lessons from it, and that the adjustments they make eventually come back to bite them hard in a painful spot.

[Yoda]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNONews/status/1498160630209126400

You can't have a stock market crash without stocks being traded. Absolutely brilliant.

In soviet Russia, stocks trade you.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1498188528638902275?s=20&t=BHhQ5YG...
Google Translation:

Total estimated losses 🇷🇺 from 24.02 to 28.02 as of 6.00
 Aircraft 29
 helicopters 29
 Tanks 191
 Armored fighting vehicles 816
 Cannon 74
 SAM BEECH 1
 City 21
 Automotive 291
 Tanks 60
 UAV OTR 3
 Ships / boats 2
 Air Defense Means 5
 Personnel approximately 5300 (to be specified)

Even if the number of Russians killed were half what is being reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, it would be astonishing. If it really is over 5,000? Wow.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1498188528638902275?s=20&t=BHhQ5YG...
Google Translation:

Total estimated losses 🇷🇺 from 24.02 to 28.02 as of 6.00
 Aircraft 29
 helicopters 29
 Tanks 191
 Armored fighting vehicles 816
 Cannon 74
 SAM BEECH 1
 City 21
 Automotive 291
 Tanks 60
 UAV OTR 3
 Ships / boats 2
 Air Defense Means 5
 Personnel approximately 5300 (to be specified)

Even if the number of Russians killed were half what is being reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, it would be astonishing. If it really is over 5,000? Wow.

Take it with a huge grain of salt. The progress of the war so far is consistent with a Russian:Ukrainian death ratio of around 3:1 to 4:1.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498196443865452545

Mind that air superiority is not air supremacy.

[AndyHogan14]

Google Translation:

Total estimated losses 🇷🇺 from 24.02 to 28.02 as of 6.00
 Aircraft 29
 helicopters 29
 Tanks 191
 Armored fighting vehicles 816
 Cannon 74
 SAM BEECH 1
 City 21
 Automotive 291
 Tanks 60
 UAV OTR 3
 Ships / boats 2
 Air Defense Means 5
 Personnel approximately 5300 (to be specified)

Even if the number of Russians killed were half what is being reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, it would be astonishing. If it really is over 5,000? Wow.

Take it with a huge grain of salt. The progress of the war so far is consistent with a Russian:Ukrainian death ratio of around 3:1 to 4:1.

For sure. But again, even half of the reported number is quite a bit.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1498187986634215424

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498178611916034054

Kyiv Independent, so take it with a grain of salt. If true, reinforces that the Belarus talks were a sham all along.

[Storr]

7933 Mhz USB is currently active. It's weird being able to listen in on battlefield communications half a world away. I wish I knew Russian, lol.

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901/


https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498191746290925569?s=20&t=bNJJqkW...



Here's a Reddit thread (with a translated clip) from yesterday about listening to Russian comms:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/t2fx13/to_listen_to_russian_comms/

[Aurelius]

For a bit of comedy, here's a flashback to 2014:

https://twitter.com/JerryDunleavy/status/1485082384764747776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[AndyHogan14]

According to the Guardian, the "peace talks" will begin at 9:00am GMT/12:00pm in Belarus.

[Storr]

7933 Mhz USB is currently active. It's weird being able to listen in on battlefield communications half a world away. I wish I knew Russian, lol.

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901/


https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498191746290925569?s=20&t=bNJJqkW...



Here's a Reddit thread (with a translated clip) from yesterday about listening to Russian comms:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/t2fx13/to_listen_to_russian_comms/

Right now it sounds like they are having pretty normal communications. Everybody sounds pretty calm, no one sounds like they are stressed or panicking. It's wild that in 2022 a major military during wartime isn't using encrypted communications.  

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Russia moment



^{Stolen from r/noncredibledefense}

What do the Zs mean again? I think this one is my favorite meme so far.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498196443865452545

Mind that air superiority is not air supremacy.

CNN is reporting it as supremacy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russia moment



^{Stolen from r/noncredibledefense}

What do the Zs mean again? I think this one is my favorite meme so far.

Z means Russian vehicles. O means Ukrainian vehicles. The Russians and Ukrainians have the same vehicles and uniforms, so there exists a need to distinguish between the two.

[Storr]

Russia moment



^{Stolen from r/noncredibledefense}

What do the Zs mean again? I think this one is my favorite meme so far.

Z means Russian vehicles. O means Ukrainian vehicles. The Russians and Ukrainians have the same vehicles and uniforms, so there exists a need to distinguish between the two.

Z and O were for different Russian invasion forces. Z for coming north from Crimea. O for going south towards Kyiv.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498178611916034054

Kyiv Independent, so take it with a grain of salt. If true, reinforces that the Belarus talks were a sham all along.

I just read that Belarusian military is expected to join the fight (on Russia's side) if "peace talks" go badly today. Now I consider that a threat.

[Logical]

Russia moment



^{Stolen from r/noncredibledefense}

What do the Zs mean again? I think this one is my favorite meme so far.

Z means Russian vehicles. O means Ukrainian vehicles. The Russians and Ukrainians have the same vehicles and uniforms, so there exists a need to distinguish between the two.

Incorrect. Here's the National Guard of Ukraine's explanation for these markings. Ukrainian vehicles are not marked.
https://twitter.com/ng_ukraine/status/1497905325499981825

Z - the eastern forces of the Russian federation (Kharkiv/Sumy axis)
Z squared - forces from the Crimea (Crimea/Kherson axis)
O - forces from Belarus (Kiev axis)
V - Marines
X - Chechens
A - Special Forces (SOBR, ALPHA, SSO)