2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 192663 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #2050 on: October 27, 2020, 01:53:15 PM »
Their last polls had

9/23: GA
RV (Trump +1), High LV (Trump +2)
RV (Perdue +6), High LV (Perdue +5)

9/15: FL
RV (Biden +5), High LV (Biden +5)
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2051 on: October 27, 2020, 02:00:03 PM »
GA: Trump +2
FL: Tied
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Buzz
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« Reply #2052 on: October 27, 2020, 02:08:00 PM »
GA: Biden +1
FL: Biden +4
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Horus
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« Reply #2053 on: October 27, 2020, 02:25:12 PM »
GA - tied
FL - Trump +4
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soundchaser
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« Reply #2054 on: October 27, 2020, 02:26:28 PM »

A 9-point swing in a Monmouth poll? Not happening.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #2055 on: October 27, 2020, 02:27:40 PM »

Florida to the right of Georgia seems like a bit of a stretch.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2056 on: October 27, 2020, 03:18:24 PM »
GA: Biden+2
FL: Biden+3
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #2057 on: October 27, 2020, 04:03:27 PM »
I am literally chilling the champagne:

https://i.ibb.co/HC42CTW/20201027-165450.jpg
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mark_twain
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« Reply #2058 on: October 27, 2020, 05:28:37 PM »

GA Tie
FL Biden +2
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Buzz
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« Reply #2059 on: October 27, 2020, 06:30:03 PM »
The Marquette poll tomorrow might just be the most important poll left.  Hype level on 100.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2060 on: October 27, 2020, 06:36:37 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2020, 06:55:25 PM by Gass3268 »
Quote from: Buzz on October 27, 2020, 06:30:03 PM
The Marquette poll tomorrow might just be the most important poll left.  Hype level on 100.

Unless Professor Franklin figures out a better way of convincing African Americans in Milwaukee to make a decision, I'm not expecting much of a change from the last poll. Maybe something like Biden +6.
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Malarkey Decider
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« Reply #2061 on: October 27, 2020, 06:37:46 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 27, 2020, 06:30:03 PM
The Marquette poll tomorrow might just be the most important poll left.  Hype level on 100.

That, DMR of Iowa, and ABC/WaPo Final National poll are the ones that I think are most important from here to the election.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #2062 on: October 27, 2020, 06:46:00 PM »
For me, Selzer’s Iowa poll is the most important poll left. I just think they’re better and higher quality than Marquette and will obviously tell us more about the midwest than the national ABC/Wapo poll (though that’s important too). If Biden is at like 48 in the Iowa poll and tied with Trump or even down 1, I may call the midwest for Biden off that alone lol.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2063 on: October 27, 2020, 06:53:36 PM »
Quote from: Malarkey Decider on October 27, 2020, 06:37:46 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 27, 2020, 06:30:03 PM
The Marquette poll tomorrow might just be the most important poll left.  Hype level on 100.

That, DMR of Iowa, and ABC/WaPo Final National poll are the ones that I think are most important from here to the election.

Yep, ABC/Wapo especially nailed the national margin in 2016 and 2018.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #2064 on: October 28, 2020, 01:35:52 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 27, 2020, 06:53:36 PM
Quote from: Malarkey Decider on October 27, 2020, 06:37:46 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 27, 2020, 06:30:03 PM
The Marquette poll tomorrow might just be the most important poll left.  Hype level on 100.

That, DMR of Iowa, and ABC/WaPo Final National poll are the ones that I think are most important from here to the election.

Yep, ABC/Wapo especially nailed the national margin in 2016 and 2018.

When do Wapo and Selzer drop?
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #2065 on: October 28, 2020, 02:16:46 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 27, 2020, 06:53:36 PM
Quote from: Malarkey Decider on October 27, 2020, 06:37:46 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 27, 2020, 06:30:03 PM
The Marquette poll tomorrow might just be the most important poll left.  Hype level on 100.

That, DMR of Iowa, and ABC/WaPo Final National poll are the ones that I think are most important from here to the election.
And 2012 AND 2014
Yep, ABC/Wapo especially nailed the national margin in 2016 and 2018.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2066 on: October 28, 2020, 04:27:37 AM »
A reminder that the Marquette WI poll drops today -- undoubtedly one of the most important post-debate polls. 
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #2067 on: October 28, 2020, 04:29:48 AM »
I'm expecting Marquette to show a pretty modest Biden lead by comparison. I'm guessing Biden +6 and with a ridiculous amount of Jorgensen voters.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2068 on: October 28, 2020, 05:30:48 AM »
Quote from: TheLaRocca on October 28, 2020, 01:35:52 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 27, 2020, 06:53:36 PM
Quote from: Malarkey Decider on October 27, 2020, 06:37:46 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 27, 2020, 06:30:03 PM
The Marquette poll tomorrow might just be the most important poll left.  Hype level on 100.

That, DMR of Iowa, and ABC/WaPo Final National poll are the ones that I think are most important from here to the election.

Yep, ABC/Wapo especially nailed the national margin in 2016 and 2018.

When do Wapo and Selzer drop?

Sezler usually drops on late Saturday afternoon usually and ABC/Wapo usually Saturday night at midnight
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philly09
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« Reply #2069 on: October 28, 2020, 05:57:46 AM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2070 on: October 28, 2020, 06:12:00 AM »
Quote from: philly09 on October 28, 2020, 05:57:46 AM


I could be totally wrong, but I feel like these polls with Biden "struggling" with nonwhites are off. Trump could do maybe a few % better with Latinos, but there are just as many polls showing Trump doing just as bad as 2016 with nonwhites, so I feel like this narrative may collapse come election day.
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philly09
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« Reply #2071 on: October 28, 2020, 06:13:37 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 28, 2020, 06:12:00 AM
Quote from: philly09 on October 28, 2020, 05:57:46 AM


I could be totally wrong, but I feel like these polls with Biden "struggling" with nonwhites are off. Trump could do maybe a few % better with Latinos, but there are just as many polls showing Trump doing just as bad as 2016 with nonwhites, so I feel like this narrative may collapse come election day.

They need to define "Hispanic". Cuban? Venezuelan? Puerto Rican?
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Buzz
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« Reply #2072 on: October 28, 2020, 08:20:45 AM »
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2073 on: October 28, 2020, 08:22:56 AM »
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2074 on: October 28, 2020, 08:23:33 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 28, 2020, 08:20:45 AM


Previously Trump +5 (LV) in standard scenario -- Sep 17-21
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