Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains

[Dr. MB]

Looking at the county map, I think names had a large part to play.

Lupe Valdez easily won the Dallas area, of course, but also the entire Rio Grande region, San Antonio, and the Panhandle where there is a large Hispanic population. White did better in the Houston area and north Texas counties with likely a majority-white primary electorate.

Cedric Davis won three counties – two in East Texas (Jefferson and San Augustine, which probably have a majority-black primary electorate) and Roberts County in North Texas, where only three votes were cast.

Grady Yarbrough has the name of a western cowboy (he's not, he's a retired black teacher from East Texas) but nevertheless he won several counties in the panhandle area.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I know some of Dreaming blue for Texas in November.  I do not think there is much chance of it, especially in Governor’s race.  But let us assume there is a chance in the Senate race and a few congressional seats.
Do you not think nominating a lesbian for Governor is not pressing the envelope little with negative effects on other races?  Are you not a little too much?

[Dr. MB]

I know some of Dreaming blue for Texas in November.  I do not think there is much chance of it, especially in Governor’s race.  But let us assume there is a chance in the Senate race and a few congressional seats.
Do you not think nominating a lesbian for Governor is not pressing the envelope little with negative effects on other races?  Are you not a little too much?

Regardless of who wins the primary runoff, Abbott will win reelection in November. That’s a given.

Those who would care enough about Valdez being a lesbian that it would impact their decision obviously wouldn’t vote for her anyway, and would also likely support Ted Cruz. I doubt there’s any significant number of people who would have normally voted for O’Rourke, but were turned away by the sexuality of a candidate in a different race altogether.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I know some of Dreaming blue for Texas in November.  I do not think there is much chance of it, especially in Governor’s race.  But let us assume there is a chance in the Senate race and a few congressional seats.
Do you not think nominating a lesbian for Governor is not pressing the envelope little with negative effects on other races?  Are you not a little too much?

Regardless of who wins the primary runoff, Abbott will win reelection in November. That’s a given.

Those who would care enough about Valdez being a lesbian that it would impact their decision obviously wouldn’t vote for her anyway, and would also likely support Ted Cruz. I doubt there’s any significant number of people who would have normally voted for O’Rourke, but were turned away by the sexuality of a candidate in a different race altogether.

It still seems to me you are trying to juggle too many balls.  It also seems that Abbott could have coattails.  I do not see how Valdez could help snip them.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I know some of Dreaming blue for Texas in November.  I do not think there is much chance of it, especially in Governor’s race.  But let us assume there is a chance in the Senate race and a few congressional seats.
Do you not think nominating a lesbian for Governor is not pressing the envelope little with negative effects on other races?  Are you not a little too much?

Regardless of who wins the primary runoff, Abbott will win reelection in November. That’s a given.

Those who would care enough about Valdez being a lesbian that it would impact their decision obviously wouldn’t vote for her anyway, and would also likely support Ted Cruz. I doubt there’s any significant number of people who would have normally voted for O’Rourke, but were turned away by the sexuality of a candidate in a different race altogether.

It still seems to me you are trying to juggle too many balls.  It also seems that Abbott could have coattails.  I do not see how Valdez could help snip them.

Democrats are not going to win any statewide races here this time barring a Moore scenario. Yet people like you would still support Hitler or David Duke if they had an R next to their name... anyways, democrats are going to make gains down ballot, its just a question of how much now.

[Beet]

Eh, she's a 70 year old woman. She probably stopped bumping uglies with ladies years ago, if not decades. At this point she's Lesbian In Name Only (LINO). It's more accurate to say she's chaste. I seriously doubt Paul was talking about people like her.

As far as what she brings to the ticket, ask Ted Cruz. He seems to think anyone without a Hispanic name has something to compensate for. Maybe he'll be happy with Valdez.

[Canis]

A lot of people are taking these raw total primary numbers too seriously whats important is how will the independants break i'm sure a vast majority will break for abbot in the governors race but O'rourke has a chance of winning still.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I know some of Dreaming blue for Texas in November.  I do not think there is much chance of it, especially in Governor’s race.  But let us assume there is a chance in the Senate race and a few congressional seats.
Do you not think nominating a lesbian for Governor is not pressing the envelope little with negative effects on other races?  Are you not a little too much?

Regardless of who wins the primary runoff, Abbott will win reelection in November. That’s a given.

Those who would care enough about Valdez being a lesbian that it would impact their decision obviously wouldn’t vote for her anyway, and would also likely support Ted Cruz. I doubt there’s any significant number of people who would have normally voted for O’Rourke, but were turned away by the sexuality of a candidate in a different race altogether.

It still seems to me you are trying to juggle too many balls.  It also seems that Abbott could have coattails.  I do not see how Valdez could help snip them.

Democrats are not going to win any statewide races here this time barring a Moore scenario. Yet people like you would still support Hitler or David Duke if they had an R next to their name... anyways, democrats are going to make gains down ballot, its just a question of how much now.

Your ad hominem attack really adds to the discussion.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I know some of Dreaming blue for Texas in November.  I do not think there is much chance of it, especially in Governor’s race.  But let us assume there is a chance in the Senate race and a few congressional seats.
Do you not think nominating a lesbian for Governor is not pressing the envelope little with negative effects on other races?  Are you not a little too much?

Regardless of who wins the primary runoff, Abbott will win reelection in November. That’s a given.

Those who would care enough about Valdez being a lesbian that it would impact their decision obviously wouldn’t vote for her anyway, and would also likely support Ted Cruz. I doubt there’s any significant number of people who would have normally voted for O’Rourke, but were turned away by the sexuality of a candidate in a different race altogether.

It still seems to me you are trying to juggle too many balls.  It also seems that Abbott could have coattails.  I do not see how Valdez could help snip them.

Democrats are not going to win any statewide races here this time barring a Moore scenario. Yet people like you would still support Hitler or David Duke if they had an R next to their name... anyways, democrats are going to make gains down ballot, its just a question of how much now.

Your ad hominem attack really adds to the discussion.

Your words and actions, my soap box. Your support of Moore.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Eh, she's a 70 year old woman. She probably stopped bumping uglies with ladies years ago, if not decades. At this point she's Lesbian In Name Only (LINO). It's more accurate to say she's chaste. I seriously doubt Paul was talking about people like her.

As far as what she brings to the ticket, ask Ted Cruz. He seems to think anyone without a Hispanic name has something to compensate for. Maybe he'll be happy with Valdez.

I am not attacking the lady. It just seems she is a distraction.  Also, the runoff between her and the pro life White is going to be a distraction.  This runoff seems to show a party in disarray. Wouldn’t it be interesting, if White won.  Is it possible White could win?

In any event I do not see either as being of any assistance to Beto.  

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Eh, she's a 70 year old woman. She probably stopped bumping uglies with ladies years ago, if not decades. At this point she's Lesbian In Name Only (LINO). It's more accurate to say she's chaste. I seriously doubt Paul was talking about people like her.

As far as what she brings to the ticket, ask Ted Cruz. He seems to think anyone without a Hispanic name has something to compensate for. Maybe he'll be happy with Valdez.

I am not attacking the lady. It just seems she is a distraction.  Also, the runoff between her and the pro life White is going to be a distraction.  This runoff seems to show a party in disarray. Wouldn’t it be interesting, if White won.  Is it possible White could win?

In any event I do not see either as being of any assistance to Beto.  

No state wide democrat is going to win this time barring a Moore scenario. It's about down ballot races in CD's, and also I want my county's DA office back in dem hands.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I know some of Dreaming blue for Texas in November.  I do not think there is much chance of it, especially in Governor’s race.  But let us assume there is a chance in the Senate race and a few congressional seats.
Do you not think nominating a lesbian for Governor is not pressing the envelope little with negative effects on other races?  Are you not a little too much?

Regardless of who wins the primary runoff, Abbott will win reelection in November. That’s a given.

Those who would care enough about Valdez being a lesbian that it would impact their decision obviously wouldn’t vote for her anyway, and would also likely support Ted Cruz. I doubt there’s any significant number of people who would have normally voted for O’Rourke, but were turned away by the sexuality of a candidate in a different race altogether.

It still seems to me you are trying to juggle too many balls.  It also seems that Abbott could have coattails.  I do not see how Valdez could help snip them.

Democrats are not going to win any statewide races here this time barring a Moore scenario. Yet people like you would still support Hitler or David Duke if they had an R next to their name... anyways, democrats are going to make gains down ballot, its just a question of how much now.

Your ad hominem attack really adds to the discussion.

Your words and actions, my soap box. Your support of Moore.

We will have to diagree as too whether Moore is comparable to Duke or Hitler.

It is comforting that you have already given up on Beto.  I thought you might have had more staying power.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Eh, she's a 70 year old woman. She probably stopped bumping uglies with ladies years ago, if not decades. At this point she's Lesbian In Name Only (LINO). It's more accurate to say she's chaste. I seriously doubt Paul was talking about people like her.

As far as what she brings to the ticket, ask Ted Cruz. He seems to think anyone without a Hispanic name has something to compensate for. Maybe he'll be happy with Valdez.

I am not attacking the lady. It just seems she is a distraction.  Also, the runoff between her and the pro life White is going to be a distraction.  This runoff seems to show a party in disarray. Wouldn’t it be interesting, if White won.  Is it possible White could win?

In any event I do not see either as being of any assistance to Beto.  

No state wide democrat is going to win this time barring a Moore scenario. It's about down ballot races in CD's, and also I want my county's DA office back in dem hands.

In what county do you reside?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Ms. Valdez being a lesbian has no bearing on O’Rourke’s performance. LOL.

“Well I really want to vote for this guy but some lady in the other race is lesbian so let me vote Cruz”

[VPH]

What I find interesting is Jefferson County's protest voting.

[DINGO Joe]

What I find interesting is Jefferson County's protest voting.

It has the highest % black population of any county in the state, hence the high vote for black candidates.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Eh, she's a 70 year old woman. She probably stopped bumping uglies with ladies years ago, if not decades. At this point she's Lesbian In Name Only (LINO). It's more accurate to say she's chaste. I seriously doubt Paul was talking about people like her.

As far as what she brings to the ticket, ask Ted Cruz. He seems to think anyone without a Hispanic name has something to compensate for. Maybe he'll be happy with Valdez.

I am not attacking the lady. It just seems she is a distraction.  Also, the runoff between her and the pro life White is going to be a distraction.  This runoff seems to show a party in disarray. Wouldn’t it be interesting, if White won.  Is it possible White could win?

In any event I do not see either as being of any assistance to Beto.  

No state wide democrat is going to win this time barring a Moore scenario. It's about down ballot races in CD's, and also I want my county's DA office back in dem hands.

In what county do you reside?

Dallas County Tx.

[libertpaulian]

Dems should be focusing on Blue Georgia, Blue Arizona, and Blue Tennessee this fall, not Blue Texas.

[CatoMinor]

This weekend is the TX LP convention in Houston. While Glass is still likely the favorite to be nominated, it's worth noting that at least 2 of her 3 rivals have a decent shot. Unless I'm mistaken this year will have more counties organized and represented than in the past and is shaping up to see a clash between the more conservative wing, the energized An/Cap activist wing, and the more pragmatic Johnson/Weld wing.

I expect Neal Dikeman will secure the nomination for the U.S. Senate race. He sent out a pretty great e-mail that called out his opponents for not even getting their home counties' votes to become delegates to the convention.

[GlobeSoc]

It would be interesting if Beto won by surging massively vs 2012 in Austin suburbia+Fort Bend and Latino communities throughout the state, while still getting blown out in Houston/Dallas suburbia.

Would seem to be a more plausible path to democrats making Texas competitive than going through Collin county and similar types.

[CatoMinor]

It would be interesting if Beto won by surging massively vs 2012 in Austin suburbia+Fort Bend and Latino communities throughout the state, while still getting blown out in Houston/Dallas suburbia.

Would seem to be a more plausible path to democrats making Texas competitive than going through Collin county and similar types.

You can run up those greater Austin numbers all you like, but the path to victory goes through the suburbs and exurbs of Dallas and Houston. Maybe not winning them, but making them close. That and high turnout from the Valley.

[GlobeSoc]

It would be interesting if Beto won by surging massively vs 2012 in Austin suburbia+Fort Bend and Latino communities throughout the state, while still getting blown out in Houston/Dallas suburbia.

Would seem to be a more plausible path to democrats making Texas competitive than going through Collin county and similar types.

You can run up those greater Austin numbers all you like, but the path to victory goes through the suburbs and exurbs of Dallas and Houston. Maybe not winning them, but making them close. That and high turnout from the Valley.

I meant Williamson and Hays county, I wasn't referring to Travis.

[Canis]

Who is Beto backing in the runoff?

[DINGO Joe]

Who is Beto backing in the runoff?

I'd guess he stays neutral.

[Skill and Chance]

It would be interesting if Beto won by surging massively vs 2012 in Austin suburbia+Fort Bend and Latino communities throughout the state, while still getting blown out in Houston/Dallas suburbia.

Would seem to be a more plausible path to democrats making Texas competitive than going through Collin county and similar types.

You can run up those greater Austin numbers all you like, but the path to victory goes through the suburbs and exurbs of Dallas and Houston. Maybe not winning them, but making them close. That and high turnout from the Valley.

Hmmm... the geographic path to a Dem statewide victory in Texas probably isn't that different from Jones's victory in Alabama.  Looking at the swing to Jones in Birmingham, that would probably mean the winning Texas Dem is getting 82% in Travis, 67% in Harris and Bexar and 75% in Dallas, with Tarrant being about 55% Dem.  If that happens and nothing much changes from 2016 in the rural areas or the exurbs, what does that look like statewide?