California House Races Megathread

[wesmoorenerd]

So SurveyUSA has a poll of CA-50: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=eb9595d8-c029-4d6c-946c-0ada29b42230&c=37

Hunter leads Najjar 47-39% with 42% of voters saying the charges against Hunter are politically motivated. 41% of voters say that the charges make no difference while 11% say they are more likely to vote for him because of the charges.

Jesus f***ing Christ. Republican voters really are shameless. Who would be more likely to vote for a corrupt man that lies out his ass, throws his own wife under the bus, and openly insults the American military?

[IceSpear]

So SurveyUSA has a poll of CA-50: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=eb9595d8-c029-4d6c-946c-0ada29b42230&c=37

Hunter leads Najjar 47-39% with 42% of voters saying the charges against Hunter are politically motivated. 41% of voters say that the charges make no difference while 11% say they are more likely to vote for him because of the charges.

Jesus f***ing Christ. Republican voters really are shameless. Who would be more likely to vote for a corrupt man that lies out his ass, throws his own wife under the bus, and openly insults the American military?

But a serial sexual predator/pedophile lost by 1 point, which proves the voters are logical, reasonable, responsible, and hold their politicians accountable for wrongdoings.

- Pundits/Atlas posters

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Campa-Najjar rolling out some anti-Hunter TV ads tomorrow:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.sacbee.com/latest-news/article217562395.html#storylink=latest_side

[Progressive Pessimist]

Campa-Najjar rolling out some anti-Hunter TV ads tomorrow:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.sacbee.com/latest-news/article217562395.html#storylink=latest_side

It looks like Hunter is about to be *takes off sunglasses* hunted.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mR3jnW2kcUs

That's like the third time I made a CSI Miami joke, and I don't care.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

And here is the ad!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSPbbLKlQug

[IceSpear]

And here is the ad!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSPbbLKlQug

Great ad! Finally a Democrat with balls that doesn't run lame milquetoast ads.

[Coastal Elitist]

And here is the ad!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSPbbLKlQug

Won't matter. This district is full of deplorables that won't vote for a brown person with a muslim sounding name.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Bold Guess- Only David Valadao, Paul Cook, Doug LaMalfa, Kevin McCarthy and Ken Calvert will remain in office after the election

[Coastal Elitist]

Bold Guess- Only David Valadao, Paul Cook, Doug LaMalfa, Kevin McCarthy and Ken Calvert will remain in office after the election

Um, Tom McClintock is not vulnerable. He's in CA-4 which is not competitive it's 85% White.

[IceSpear]

Bold Guess- Only David Valadao, Paul Cook, Doug LaMalfa, Kevin McCarthy and Ken Calvert will remain in office after the election

Um, Tom McClintock is not vulnerable. He's in CA-4 which is not competitive it's 85% White.

Um, Rick Saccone is not vulnerable. He's in PA-18 which is not competitive it's 96% White.

(I agree with you that McClintock is not vulnerable, but that was a terrible argument.)

[Coastal Elitist]

Bold Guess- Only David Valadao, Paul Cook, Doug LaMalfa, Kevin McCarthy and Ken Calvert will remain in office after the election

Um, Tom McClintock is not vulnerable. He's in CA-4 which is not competitive it's 85% White.

Um, Rick Saccone is not vulnerable. He's in PA-18 which is not competitive it's 96% White.

(I agree with you that McClintock is not vulnerable, but that was a terrible argument.)

This isn't the midwest. The majority of California rural whites despise Democrats, which is why Republicans outnumber Democrats by a good number in this district. Which is what I should have said.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

McClintock will underwhelm, but still win. 54-46 probably.

[wesmoorenerd]

Bold Guess- Only David Valadao, Paul Cook, Doug LaMalfa, Kevin McCarthy and Ken Calvert will remain in office after the election

Um, Tom McClintock is not vulnerable. He's in CA-4 which is not competitive it's 85% White.

Um, Rick Saccone is not vulnerable. He's in PA-18 which is not competitive it's 96% White.

(I agree with you that McClintock is not vulnerable, but that was a terrible argument.)

This isn't the midwest. The majority of California rural whites despise Democrats, which is why Republicans outnumber Democrats by a good number in this district. Which is what I should have said.

McClintock is strongly favored, but he's not invulnerable. He's a pretty weak incumbent that doesn't even live in his own district. It's Likely R.

Only three CAGOP incumbents are completely safe this year: Calvert, Cook, and McCarthy.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, the local party is treating him like persona non grata¹ (I get emails from the OCGOP asking for volunteers for Kim, Walters, and Harkey).

That’s because Dana Rohrabacher will cruise to victory in November. The suburban deplorables love him.

[Bumaye]

Yeah, the local party is treating him like persona non grata¹ (I get emails from the OCGOP asking for volunteers for Kim, Walters, and Harkey).

That’s because Dana Rohrabacher will cruise to victory in November. The suburban deplorables love him.

Why do people who hate brown people often spend so much time and money on looking more brown?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, the local party is treating him like persona non grata¹ (I get emails from the OCGOP asking for volunteers for Kim, Walters, and Harkey).

That’s because Dana Rohrabacher will cruise to victory in November. The suburban deplorables love him.

He's such a douche.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, the local party is treating him like persona non grata¹ (I get emails from the OCGOP asking for volunteers for Kim, Walters, and Harkey).

That’s because Dana Rohrabacher will cruise to victory in November. The suburban deplorables love him.

Why do people who hate brown people often spend so much time and money on looking more brown?

ikr, and so many suburban republican kids I know love rap and try to act with that subculture, but they not only have nothing to do with that subculture, but they support a party and candidates who are actively against it, like wtf lmao.

[Mike Thick]

Internal poll by the Fareed campaign for CA-24 shows Carbajal only 1 point ahead of Fareed at 47%-46%.

https://www.scribd.com/document/384680493/CA-24-Olive-Tree-Strategies-R-for-Justin-Fareed-July-2018

My classmate who interns for the Fareed Campaign was like "muh NECK AND NECK" in first period today. The unfortunate fact is that, outside Atlas, it's hard to rebut that without sounding like a pretentious asshole

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Yeah, the local party is treating him like persona non grata¹ (I get emails from the OCGOP asking for volunteers for Kim, Walters, and Harkey).

That’s because Dana Rohrabacher will cruise to victory in November. The suburban deplorables love him.

This isn't Temecula, and the suburban yuppies love Rouda. Rohrabacher is going down.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Internal poll by the Fareed campaign for CA-24 shows Carbajal only 1 point ahead of Fareed at 47%-46%.

https://www.scribd.com/document/384680493/CA-24-Olive-Tree-Strategies-R-for-Justin-Fareed-July-2018

My classmate who interns for the Fareed Campaign was like "muh NECK AND NECK" in first period today. The unfortunate fact is that, outside Atlas, it's hard to rebut that without sounding like a pretentious asshole

Then be a pretentious asshole. Justin Fareed certainly is.

[mencken]

Yeah, the local party is treating him like persona non grata¹ (I get emails from the OCGOP asking for volunteers for Kim, Walters, and Harkey).

That’s because Dana Rohrabacher will cruise to victory in November. The suburban deplorables love him.

This isn't Temecula, and the suburban yuppies love Rouda. Rohrabacher is going down.

The NYT poll had them tied.

[ON Progressive]

Yeah, the local party is treating him like persona non grata¹ (I get emails from the OCGOP asking for volunteers for Kim, Walters, and Harkey).

That’s because Dana Rohrabacher will cruise to victory in November. The suburban deplorables love him.

This isn't Temecula, and the suburban yuppies love Rouda. Rohrabacher is going down.

The NYT poll had them tied.

A long time incumbent with negative net favourables who is tied against a guy with 42% name recognition (and the challenger has high favourables in that 42%) when his party’s president is 14 points underwater in the district is an incumbent that’s very likely to lose in the election.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, the local party is treating him like persona non grata¹ (I get emails from the OCGOP asking for volunteers for Kim, Walters, and Harkey).

That’s because Dana Rohrabacher will cruise to victory in November. The suburban deplorables love him.

This isn't Temecula, and the suburban yuppies love Rouda. Rohrabacher is going down.

The NYT poll had them tied.

A long time incumbent with negative net favourables who is tied against a guy with 42% name recognition (and the challenger has high favourables in that 42%) when his party’s president is 14 points underwater in the district is an incumbent that’s very likely to lose in the election.

Yeah, head to head numbers do not tell the entire story. Mark Pryor was holding up relatively well in the head to head polls until late in the election, but astute observers were noting all along that he was stuck in the low 40s and almost all of the undecideds disapproved of Obama. Kind of like a certain Unbeatable Titan this year that everyone insists is in a pure toss up race.

Name recognition differences matter even more in House races though, where candidates are far lower profile and tend to be more at the mercy of the political environment. The road is littered with the corpses of Democrats in 2010 who "weren't polling that bad" then got BTFO by double digits because they were only polling in the high 30s/low 40s against an opponent with low name recognition.

[mencken]

Yeah, the local party is treating him like persona non grata¹ (I get emails from the OCGOP asking for volunteers for Kim, Walters, and Harkey).

That’s because Dana Rohrabacher will cruise to victory in November. The suburban deplorables love him.

This isn't Temecula, and the suburban yuppies love Rouda. Rohrabacher is going down.

The NYT poll had them tied.

A long time incumbent with negative net favourables who is tied against a guy with 42% name recognition (and the challenger has high favourables in that 42%) when his party’s president is 14 points underwater in the district is an incumbent that’s very likely to lose in the election.

Yeah, head to head numbers do not tell the entire story. Mark Pryor was holding up relatively well in the head to head polls until late in the election, but astute observers were noting all along that he was stuck in the low 40s and almost all of the undecideds disapproved of Obama. Kind of like a certain Unbeatable Titan this year that everyone insists is in a pure toss up race.

Name recognition differences matter even more in House races though, where candidates are far lower profile and tend to be more at the mercy of the political environment. The road is littered with the corpses of Democrats in 2010 who "weren't polling that bad" then got BTFO by double digits because they were only polling in the high 30s/low 40s against an opponent with low name recognition.

Ah, so we are resorting to Dick Morris logic now. Gotcha.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Ah, so we are resorting to Dick Morris logic now. Gotcha.

Excellent link. I think you are quite correct that anyone who is very confident that "undecideds will definitely break to the Democrats" on the grounds that 2016 "will be a Democratic wave" doesn't really have solid ground to stand on. Zaybay, for example, comes to mind as someone who has emphasized that point very strongly.

Not only was Dick Morris burned by that in 2012, but huge numbers of liberals who were confident John Kerry would win because the undecideds would break to him were burned by it in 2004.

But while I agree very much that the so-called "incumbent rule" is not really a rule and certainly is not reliable, there is one other point to pay attention to, which is mentioned by the article you link to.

That is:

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So this is (at least potentially) actually pretty consistent with what IceSpear is saying, since he is referencing the fact that all of the Democratic challengers in these polls have low name recognition.

That is something that is true for congressional races much more than for high-profile Presidential races, and so while this thinking would clearly be incorrect for a Presidential race, it may apply at least somewhat more to congressional midterm races.

I would say that it is definitely a bad position for an incumbent to be in. Although I don't think we can justifiably be anything close to certain that this means that the undecideds in these races will in fact break for the Democratic challengers, if I had to choose to either be the incumbent or the challenger in this situation, I would rather be the challenger, wouldn't you? The challenger just has more upside.