Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[MT Treasurer]

I'm surprised you guys still trust polls so much after how badly they were off in Nov 2020

Surprised to see someone from Georgia saying that.

A January runoff election with unrepresentative turnout patterns in a deeply polarized (and thus easier-to-model) state that is not only zooming to the left but also a place where Democrats benefit from unusually D-friendly migration patterns and 'low-propensity' D voter participation/activation does not negate the consistent patterns observed on a national level in every November election since 2014. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that many of these polls are quite clearly inflating Biden's approval numbers.

[MT Treasurer]

Virginia - Future Majority/Change Research (D): Approve +1 (50/49)

https://futuremajority.org/wp-content/uploads/FM-Memo-August-23-2021-FL-VA-Freedom-and-Democracy.pdf

This is getting funny really quick.

[MT Treasurer]

A NH poll today has him -10 in the state

Here’s the link, in case anyone is interested:

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/667/

And again....

NH men: 31% Approve, 65% Disapprove (-34)
NH women: 56% Approve, 44% Disapprove (+12)

[MT Treasurer]

2014 was clearly based on people getting bored or frustrated with Obama than Republicans becoming popular.

Republicans don’t win (wave) elections because their party is popular, they win them because they’re seen as the lesser of two evils in a two-party system.

If you (and I don’t mean you but the people who have voiced this sentiment in this thread) "feel" like there’s not the same intense backlash against Biden as against Obama among the vast majority of those who disapprove of his performance, maybe you’re talking to the wrong people in the wrong places — this seems to be a general problem these days, not just among pollsters. In most red or bright red states (not just MT), Biden never even benefited from the kind of goodwill that Obama benefited from, and whatever goodwill he had/still has he’s trying hard to squander. I also think the blame very much lies with Pelosi/Schumer here as well — there’s a good chance he would be governing at least somewhat differently and less uncompromisingly if he didn’t have a trifecta, but maybe that’s just wishful thinking since he would have just issued way more executive orders then. Either way, the party is dragging him to the left and wants him to legislate like a president with veto-proof majorities, and the only notion of compromise this administration seems to believe in is one in which a gun is held to the head of the other side and the dominant party dictates the terms of the compromise.  

The reason this decline in Biden's approval numbers should concern Democrats isn’t because of the current situation in Afghanistan (most of this will eventually be forgotten and is unlikely to be much of an issue in November 2022) but rather because it suggests than Biden does not have an unshakable floor of ~48% he can count on to approve of him no matter what, i.e., like previous administrations, this one cannot rely on 'polarization' to save it from a widespread backlash at the polls. I’ve stopped counting the times when 'polarization' was supposed to result in an atypical midterm election — I was one of those who thought that we would see such a midterm in 2018 because Trump had changed everything and I was even 'feeling' the hidden backlash against obstructionist Democrats the day before Democrats flipped the Alabama Senate seat. Nearly all of us who regularly post on a forum like this live in a bubble, guys.

I also think the Democrats' messaging on COVID and (of course) culture issues is absolutely abysmal and will be the main reason for any red wave, certainly more so than some foreign policy blunder. It’s impossible to overstate just how out of touch they’re with large swathes of the country on these issues, and they’re doing their best to exacerbate this in what many people feel is just a country in which one party loves to spit on their values and rub it in their faces (Biden's flip-flip on Hyde is emblematic of this, as is the OR outdoor mask mandate for vaccinated and unvaccinated people). Just because you as a partisan Democrat don’t see why this might generate backlash or don’t 'feel' any backlash doesn’t mean it isn’t real.

[MT Treasurer]

FL-Quinnipiac:

53% Disapprove
40% Approve

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3818

[MT Treasurer]

FL-Quinnipiac:

53% Disapprove
40% Approve

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3818

looks like poor Ron DeSantis is not doing too mutch better than biden is

51% Disapprove
44% Approve

Which is crazy because unlike Biden he actually won this state in 2018 and now his poll number are dropping like a stone...

This is inaccurate — you picked out his numbers on "handling public schools." His overall approval rating is +2 (47/45). It’s the first question...

[MT Treasurer]

It’s not that uncommon for Republicans to be overpolled in NH, at the very least you’re far less likely to see a D bias in NH than in the Midwest or even NC/FL. Polling like this also led people to believe that Ayotte was more likely to win than Toomey/Johnson or that Shaheen's race was the bellwether race of the 2014 cycle, all of which didn’t transpire. NH polling was also fairly accurate in 2020 at the federal level (in a year in which it was wildly off in general, even in states in which it had traditionally understated D strength like NV/AZ/TX).

Even if Sununu +8 and those Biden disapproval numbers are inflated, the larger pattern clearly isn’t very reassuring for Democrats in any of these battleground states/districts. If Biden’s even slightly underwater in NH, I don’t see them holding the Senate/House.

[MT Treasurer]

IA-Selzer

9/12-9/15 (changes from June)
31% approve (-12)
62% disapprove (+10)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

This state is so gone for Democrats it’s not even funny. Could see it voting 15-16 points to the right of the nation in 2024 (it was 11 points more R than the nation in 2020).

[MT Treasurer]

More evidence of the Biden Comeback! THANK YOU NEW HAMPSHIRE!
https://twitter.com/steinhausernh1/status/1473340541324730372?s=21

Angry NH women.

I mean, yes...

Among NH women: +41 (70% Approve, 29% Disapprove)
Among NH men: -42 (29% Approve, 71% Disapprove)

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/682/

[MT Treasurer]

More evidence of the Biden Comeback! THANK YOU NEW HAMPSHIRE!

Angry NH women.

I mean, yes...

Among NH women: +41 (70% Approve, 29% Disapprove)
Among NH men: -42 (29% Approve, 71% Disapprove)

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/682/

Angry NH women about to secede and create a liberal utopia.

As long as NH women don’t become your (our) instruction manual, I’m fine with the Orwellian status quo.

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1494738707903098894

This is the worst poll for Democrats I’ve seen in a long time, and that says a lot. Usually, you could explain much of the Biden disapproval-approval spread and the ramifications of those numbers for the midterms away by pointing out the unusually large % of Democrats who disapprove of Biden (i.e., people who were never going to vote Republican for Congress) — this is indeed a very valid point! — but here it’s driven by an earthshaking collapse among independents, a group Biden won 54-41 in November 2020. A 58% disapproval-39% approval rating when 89% of Democrats approve of Biden and the sample is D+3 is the kind of poll that signals absolute electoral oblivion for Democrats in November and an election in which we’re no longer even talking about states like AZ/NV (or GA/NH, for that matter).

[MT Treasurer]

New Hampshire (UNH):

43% Approve
55% Disapprove

Feb 18-22, 2022
MoE 3%

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1687&context=survey_center_polls

Texas (Emerson)

39% Approve
53% Disapprove

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/texas-2022-beto-and-abbott-matchup-likely-in-governor-s-race-ag-paxton-tries-to-avoid-runoff-in-republican-primary

Feb 21-22, 2022
MoE 4%

[MT Treasurer]

The fact that pollsters continue to ask about "approval" on issues such as inflation and gas prices is just .... mindboggling

→ The fact that pollsters continue to ask about "approval" on the issues that are currently doing the most damage to my party's electoral prospects and refuting my "Ukraine will cause a pronounced and sustainable shift in Biden's approval" narrative is just .... mindboggling

Russia/Ukraine: 46/54 (was 41/59 last poll)
Economy: 38/62
Inflation: 31/69

haha

[MT Treasurer]

NEVADA (Suffolk, 4/2 - 4/6)

35% Approve
59% Disapprove (-24)

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2022/04_12_2022_complete_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=664826247F9A90E494EF38057E069F7DCEBC0108

[MT Treasurer]

MAINE (March 14 - April 7)

34% Approve
57% Disapprove

The survey of roughly 600 registered Maine voters, which was conducted between March 14 and April 7 and released by Portland-based Digital Research Inc. on Monday

https://bangordailynews.com/2022/05/09/politics/janet-mills-entered-spring-with-slim-lead-over-paul-lepage/

[MT Treasurer]

NEW HAMPSHIRE (NH Journal/Praecones Analytica, May 25-26, n=526)

39% Approve
57% Disapprove (-18)

https://patch.com/new-hampshire/across-nh/new-poll-3-4-granite-staters-say-border-security-important-issue-2022

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LATINO VOTERS ONLY (Bendixen & Amandi International, May 12-18, n=1800)

Arizona - 50% Approve, 48% Disapprove (+2)

Florida - 36% Approve, 63% Disapprove (-27)

Nevada - 53% Approve, 45% Disapprove (+8)

Pennsylvania - 62% Approve, 34% Disapprove (+28)