Texas 2022 megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

I wouldn't be surprised if O'Rourke does better in Collin than in Tarrant.

Long term I think this is prolly gonna happen anyways cause Collin is rapidly being developed as we speak whereas Tarrant is mostly defined.

I feel like Tarrant goes the way of Maricopa or Pinellas while Collin goes the way of Orange, CA.

[Real Texan Politics]

How does Beto do in Starr county?

He's more than likely gonna lose it.

[Real Texan Politics]

Is Abbott even campaigning? It feels like he's doing nothing.

Well he is doing this...
https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1562484436188680194?s=20&t=6EN2B_uT...

[Real Texan Politics]

I'm always one to not make a big fuss over crowd size because I see how people used it to say Bernie was going to win in 2016 or 2020, but I think there is a *there* there here with Beto's crowds.

Beto is going to even dark red territory and getting people excited and getting a ton of people show up. Abbott appears to not even be actively campaigning, let alone going to blue or dark blue territory.

It's interesting he is pulling crowds in rural red areas. He's been promoting a lot of videos of R voters switching to support him which is smart. I wonder how many actually flip to him.

A lot of them probably voted for Biden in 2020. Maybe it helps his margins in the big suburbs, but not as much in the rurals.

[Real Texan Politics]

If D's win the H, TX, OH and FL will flip blue only if D's win the H

Which they won’t so neither of those are flipping.

Actually even if the dems barely held onto the house, neither of those would flip. It would take a blue tsunami (which is practically impossible, even come November), for any of those states to flip, and even then it would be extremely narrow.

But of course I’m arguing with you so…

[Real Texan Politics]

The problem for Beto is Democrats simply don't have the votes to win the state. The ceiling for them was his 2018 result against Ted Cruz. That might change in the future, but Republicans pretty much are guaranteed 50% of the vote on any given day. Cruz got 51%, Trump got 52%, Cornyn got 53%, despite Dems ramping up their turnout. This might change in the future, but at least in 2022 it is likely to hold true.

How much do you think Abbott gets this time? 55 is about my guess.

[Real Texan Politics]

I have serious doubts it'll be that close.

[Real Texan Politics]

I have serious doubts it'll be that close.

Beto isnt gonna win by THAT much

Beto isn't even gonna win at all

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/brittbaileytv/status/1576759649226739712?s=46&t=BLcAavqH...
Safe R -> Safe D

Idk to what extent Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Phil Bredesen had on his campaign, but Harry’s Beto endorsement will probably be (sorta?) similar.

[Real Texan Politics]

Interested to see if the youth turnout increases this year for Beto. If he can actually get them to the polls...

Beto’s a much more energetic candidate than Lupe Valdez was in 2018, so I think youth turnout could go up this year. Dobbs could be a factor in that too.

[Real Texan Politics]

Interested to see if the youth turnout increases this year for Beto. If he can actually get them to the polls...

Beto’s a much more energetic candidate than Lupe Valdez was in 2018, so I think youth turnout could go up this year. Dobbs could be a factor in that too.

It's interesting how even Valdez won Hays County in 2018. It would be reasonable to expect for it and adjoining Travis County to swing strongly Democratic this year. O'Rourke should also flip Fort Bend County, which Abbott won by only 493 votes against Valdez. But what about Tarrant and Williamson Counties? O'Rourke won them in 2018, and Biden won them in 2020. If Abbott wins by about the margin Cornyn did in 2020, he should hold those counties (as Cornyn did).

I expect Abbott to win both, but I’m more confident in Tarrant than Williamson.

[Real Texan Politics]

Interested to see if the youth turnout increases this year for Beto. If he can actually get them to the polls...

Beto’s a much more energetic candidate than Lupe Valdez was in 2018, so I think youth turnout could go up this year. Dobbs could be a factor in that too.

It's interesting how even Valdez won Hays County in 2018. It would be reasonable to expect for it and adjoining Travis County to swing strongly Democratic this year. O'Rourke should also flip Fort Bend County, which Abbott won by only 493 votes against Valdez. But what about Tarrant and Williamson Counties? O'Rourke won them in 2018, and Biden won them in 2020. If Abbott wins by about the margin Cornyn did in 2020, he should hold those counties (as Cornyn did).

I expect Abbott to win both, but I’m more confident in Tarrant than Williamson.

Austin area has always seemed to be Beto’s strength and Williamson County trends are far more brutal for Rs.

Exactly, plus Tarrant is more swingy and was closer than Williamson in 2020.

[Real Texan Politics]

Alright folks, here’s a question for y’all because I’m curious to know what y’all think.

What are some counties that you think Abbott will win but Paxton will lose? For me, the only one that comes to mind is the aforementioned Williamson County.

[Real Texan Politics]

Beto doubling down on the Harry Styles endorsement
https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/1577483425711276037?s=46&t=5j5OnCL0XS...

[Real Texan Politics]

Beto doubling down on the Harry Styles endorsement
https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/1577483425711276037?s=46&t=5j5OnCL0XS...

The single-issue Harry Styles voters/closeted Republicans aren't that big of a demographic.

No, but celebrity endorsements are not completely meaningless and it could cause an apolitical young woman to turn out instead of staying home.

Could help Beto out slightly in the suburbs, mainly around Austin and potentially Dallas.

[Real Texan Politics]

Alright folks, here’s a question for y’all because I’m curious to know what y’all think.

What are some counties that you think Abbott will win but Paxton will lose? For me, the only one that comes to mind is the aforementioned Williamson County.

Tarrant?

I wouldn't write it off completely, although it wasn't that democratic in 2020.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1579226077045854208

Beto is somehow winning the sign war in rural Texas, at least the hill country area. Saw more Beto signs than republican signs on my road trip

Honestly not even sure if the Abbott campaign is pumping out signs at all. There’s a ton of Mealer signs over here in Cypress and I’ve only seen like 5 Beto signs so far. I reckon the majority of Mealer voters are voting for Abbott as well, but maybe they don’t want to admit it due to retaliation fears?

This is definitely a blue not red wave developing  and Johnson +1 in WI isn't an R wave he should be up by more than that but users are trying to act like he's safe and he isnt

You do realize Beto would lose in a blue wave too, right? I mean he’s already lost in one blue wave year so…

[Real Texan Politics]

Fwiw, in Collin county, it pains me to say that Beto is being demolished in the sign game. I know it probably doesn't matter in the end but I've only just started to see a few Beto signs on the highways after the parade of GOP signs. Democratic congressional candidates are doing a little better...

Interestingly, on private residences, I've seen way more Beto signs than GOP, however.

Highway signs are completely meaningless. Signs on houses are pretty meaningless too but at least might be a measure of something.

Reminds me of earlier this year. Don Huffines had a killer highway sign game, but that obviously didn’t translate over to home signs (of which I think I only saw two at the same house) and of course the primary results.

[Real Texan Politics]

Mealer just picked up a major endorsement
https://twitter.com/HoustonChron/status/1580266965159276544?s=20&t=R7VTH1sxv...

[Real Texan Politics]

I'm expecting an Abbott winning margin somewhere around 4 or 5 points at this stage. The margins Abbott will get from rural TX are going to be brutal, but Beto looks well placed in more urban counties.

Nah, can't see Texas voting to the left of 2020. Maybe in a blue wave year, but not this time around. Abbott probably wins by 8 at the bare minimum.

[Real Texan Politics]

Not sure if I understand the logic behind endorsing both Alexandra Mealer and Beto O’Rourke
https://twitter.com/houstonchron/status/1582458995503431682?s=46&t=dp2bBjkTT...

[Real Texan Politics]

Given that Republicans seem to have some National Momentum on their side I would that the National Republican Surge has probably put the Texas Governor Race out of reach for Democrats.

You're just now figuring that out?

[Real Texan Politics]

Those Hays numbers basically confirm that Abbott will NOT be winning Hays County, nor will it be close.
https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1584716639345422337?s=20&t=aH_YuG-...
Not surprising in the slightest, as if you wanna judge by crowd sizes, Beto's rally at Texas State University may have had one of his biggest crowds during his college rally tour.

[Real Texan Politics]

The fact that Abbott couldn't even win Hays in 2018 shows how gone it is for the GOP.

I'm not sure if 2018 is the "even then" year since it was the strongest statewide performance for a Democrat in a long time. Not being able to win it THIS year is the "it's gone" year.

With brutal trends for Rs, a major university with a large student population, and with Austin not being too far away, those factors are pretty much enough for this county to already be considered "gone"

I currently have Hays as likely D and have no plans to change that.

[Real Texan Politics]

The fact that Abbott couldn't even win Hays in 2018 shows how gone it is for the GOP.

I'm not sure if 2018 is the "even then" year since it was the strongest statewide performance for a Democrat in a long time. Not being able to win it THIS year is the "it's gone" year.

With brutal trends for Rs, a major university with a large student population, and with Austin not being too far away, those factors are pretty much enough for this county to already be considered "gone"

What happened in Hays could happen in Bastrop, given time. Though it's far from there...yet. The area around Austin is like the opposite of the RGV in how it's been trending.

A lot of it may also have to do with rapid urbanization in the areas between Austin and these exurban cities like Bastrop and (until recently) San Marcos. With places like Bastrop and Elgin, there's still quite a bit of rural countryside in between those towns and the main urban cluster of Austin and its suburbs. But with the recent rapid growth of Kyle and Buda, that rural countryside that used to separate Austin and San Marcos is being urbanized fast. This can also already be seen with the suburbs of Georgetown, Hutto, and Taylor, and that's also part of why trends in Williamson County are some of the most brutal for Republicans, possibly even more so than in Collin, Denton, or Fort Bend.