Texas 2022 megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wouldn't be surprised if O'Rourke does better in Collin than in Tarrant.

Long term I think this is prolly gonna happen anyways cause Collin is rapidly being developed as we speak whereas Tarrant is mostly defined.

I feel like Tarrant goes the way of Maricopa or Pinellas while Collin goes the way of Orange, CA.

I think while it could be politically simillar, Tarrant is very different from Maricopa because Maricopa is still experiencing tons of growth of an expanding Phoenix, and Pinellas has a heavy retiree population. Honestly Tarrant is  as a county as it’s very politically and racially  polarized for how diverse it is.

Collin feels like a lot of the counties that experiencing suburban spillover from a city such as Fort Bend, Hamilton, Delaware, Gwinnett, or Williamson. Obviously, some of these counties are further along in suburbs development than others and have slightly different politics but in all cases the county is being pushed left. Orange County is more or less fully built up at this point so I don’t think it’s the right comparison though could be in another 10 or 20 years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Year Beto is gonna lose 52/46 just like Biden lost the state, I am crossing my fingers on FL, Trump llwon FL bye 3 but D's are gonna do way better than Biden especially CRIST

[wbrocks67]

NYT: After Recent Turmoil, the Race for Texas Governor Is Tightening

But in recent weeks there has been a perceptible shift in Texas, as registered in several public polls and some internal campaign surveys, after the school shooting in Uvalde that killed 19 children and two teachers and the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on abortion, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, that brought back into force a 1925 law banning all abortions except when the woman’s life is at risk.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/24/us/texas-governor-campaign-abbott-orourke.html?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's wave insurance it's a 45/40 lead for Abbott and Biden lost the state  52/46 it only flips if D's win the H but voters in MI, PA, WI, KY and KS have sent D Govs to the state capitol with R state legislature that's why Ryan is winning because of checks and balance and Fetterman and Barnes and Beasley Ds are checked by R state legislature

The maps are blank on EDay with no ratings and they said D's were gonna net gain seats in 2020 they were wrong

[ProgressiveModerate]

NYT: After Recent Turmoil, the Race for Texas Governor Is Tightening

But in recent weeks there has been a perceptible shift in Texas, as registered in several public polls and some internal campaign surveys, after the school shooting in Uvalde that killed 19 children and two teachers and the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on abortion, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, that brought back into force a 1925 law banning all abortions except when the woman’s life is at risk.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/24/us/texas-governor-campaign-abbott-orourke.html?

Tightening doesn’t necessarily mean O’Rourke is in a winnable range yet. Abbott + 12 -> Abbott + 8 or so is notable but that’s still a large gap to close. This race is def closer than it was a few months ago though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NYT: After Recent Turmoil, the Race for Texas Governor Is Tightening

But in recent weeks there has been a perceptible shift in Texas, as registered in several public polls and some internal campaign surveys, after the school shooting in Uvalde that killed 19 children and two teachers and the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on abortion, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, that brought back into force a 1925 law banning all abortions except when the woman’s life is at risk.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/24/us/texas-governor-campaign-abbott-orourke.html?

Tightening doesn’t necessarily mean O’Rourke is in a winnable range yet. Abbott + 12 -> Abbott + 8 or so is notable but that’s still a large gap to close. This race is def closer than it was a few months ago though.

Lol, we Ds are optimistic the maps are blank on EDay Biden only lost by 6 in TX

Did you know Bevin was favored in 2019 and Beshear won in KY in an R plus 20 state so Beto can win in TX, look at the compiled map the user prediction had Bevin winning just like now R nut maps wrong

[wesmoorenerd]

Abbott remains a strong favorite but this isn't the Safe R race a lot of people seem firmly convinced it is. A strong Likely R seems appropriate.

[I love boats]

How does Beto do in Starr county?

[Real Texan Politics]

How does Beto do in Starr county?

He's more than likely gonna lose it.

[LostInOhio]

I think Beto was about a decade too early here for his time. Sadly this second loss will likely end his political career; I doubt he could convince donors a third run at office is worth it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't seen anymore FL or TX polls and the primary is next mnth

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

I think Beto was about a decade too early here for his time. Sadly this second loss will likely end his political career; I doubt he could convince donors a third run at office is worth it.

Beto is one of the most unappealing pols I have ever seen.  Had he remained a Rep. from El Paso he'd have been able to have had a significant career.  Right now, he's the personification of the Peter Principle.  There's a lot of that in politics, so he isn't unique.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Beto was about a decade too early here for his time. Sadly this second loss will likely end his political career; I doubt he could convince donors a third run at office is worth it.

Beto is one of the most unappealing pols I have ever seen.  Had he remained a Rep. from El Paso he'd have been able to have had a significant career.  Right now, he's the personification of the Peter Principle.  There's a lot of that in politics, so he isn't unique.

Rs have donated TX since Bush W , with Rick Perry and Gregg Abbott and since Kennedy ASSASSINATION in Dallas they can't control mass shootings, we haven't had an Election yet, there can be upsets that's why Tim Ryan is winning, D's were supposed to gain seats last time we lost seats we won KY an R plus 20 state and TX is way less than KY Crist or Beto if we win the H can win, voters like in the states of KY and KS send D's to Gov and have R state legislature, don't be shocked if Beto or Crist or Ryan win and D's win the H

Abbott is polling the same as Bevin 45/40 in the polls and Bevin lost and users predicting Bevin to win on the compiled map and they were wrong then they are wrong now on an R nut map

Just because users predict an R nut map can be wrong just like they were when they predicted Bevin to win, I don't make R nut maps because what happens when your fav candidate wins and you predicted it going R wait till we have results before you DOOM

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Beto was about a decade too early here for his time. Sadly this second loss will likely end his political career; I doubt he could convince donors a third run at office is worth it.

Beto is one of the most unappealing pols I have ever seen.  Had he remained a Rep. from El Paso he'd have been able to have had a significant career.  Right now, he's the personification of the Peter Principle.  There's a lot of that in politics, so he isn't unique.

If he loses TX-Gov big time in 2022 which seems like the more likely scenario, his political career likely fades, at least until he is able to reinvent himself.

If he comes surprisingly close, it could give him a 2018 boost again

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

I think Beto was about a decade too early here for his time. Sadly this second loss will likely end his political career; I doubt he could convince donors a third run at office is worth it.

Beto is one of the most unappealing pols I have ever seen.  Had he remained a Rep. from El Paso he'd have been able to have had a significant career.  Right now, he's the personification of the Peter Principle.  There's a lot of that in politics, so he isn't unique.

If he loses TX-Gov big time in 2022 which seems like the more likely scenario, his political career likely fades, at least until he is able to reinvent himself.

If he comes surprisingly close, it could give him a 2018 boost again

A surprisingly close loss will put him in the Harvey Gantt/Erskine Bowles  category.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1552324255316119553?t=bId9UIBpS7GpMm-FbIbd-A&s=19

Democracy Corp have D's far outpacing Biden 39 Percent Approvals do t be surprised if there are upsets as I told you guys before if polls were the end all be all we would not have to vote, having said that this only flips if D's win the H

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Beto was about a decade too early here for his time. Sadly this second loss will likely end his political career; I doubt he could convince donors a third run at office is worth it.

Beto is one of the most unappealing pols I have ever seen.  Had he remained a Rep. from El Paso he'd have been able to have had a significant career.  Right now, he's the personification of the Peter Principle.  There's a lot of that in politics, so he isn't unique.

If he loses TX-Gov big time in 2022 which seems like the more likely scenario, his political career likely fades, at least until he is able to reinvent himself.

If he comes surprisingly close, it could give him a 2018 boost again

A surprisingly close loss will put him in the Harvey Gantt/Erskine Bowles  category.

I disagree; neither were ever anywhere close to as big of names as O' Rourke is today and that was in a time where there was much less national media on this sort of stuff

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

I think Beto was about a decade too early here for his time. Sadly this second loss will likely end his political career; I doubt he could convince donors a third run at office is worth it.

Beto is one of the most unappealing pols I have ever seen.  Had he remained a Rep. from El Paso he'd have been able to have had a significant career.  Right now, he's the personification of the Peter Principle.  There's a lot of that in politics, so he isn't unique.

If he loses TX-Gov big time in 2022 which seems like the more likely scenario, his political career likely fades, at least until he is able to reinvent himself.

If he comes surprisingly close, it could give him a 2018 boost again

A surprisingly close loss will put him in the Harvey Gantt/Erskine Bowles  category.

I disagree; neither were ever anywhere close to as big of names as O' Rourke is today and that was in a time where there was much less national media on this sort of stuff

That's true.  Bowles and Gantt never were elected to Federal office.

[Mr. Smith]

I think Beto was about a decade too early here for his time. Sadly this second loss will likely end his political career; I doubt he could convince donors a third run at office is worth it.

Beto is one of the most unappealing pols I have ever seen.  Had he remained a Rep. from El Paso he'd have been able to have had a significant career.  Right now, he's the personification of the Peter Principle.  There's a lot of that in politics, so he isn't unique.

If he loses TX-Gov big time in 2022 which seems like the more likely scenario, his political career likely fades, at least until he is able to reinvent himself.

If he comes surprisingly close, it could give him a 2018 boost again

A surprisingly close loss will put him in the Harvey Gantt/Erskine Bowles  category.

I disagree; neither were ever anywhere close to as big of names as O' Rourke is today and that was in a time where there was much less national media on this sort of stuff

Feingold then.

Ideally he ends up creating a bit of a Machine that ultimately leads to the big shift.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before there will be upsets on EDay the maps are blank, this only flips if D's win the H, that's why it's called wave insurance the 303 map solidifies the Senate and wave insurance solidifies the DH, but every election isn't the same we won KY Gov and R plus 20 state when Bevin was polling like Abbott 45/40 it's a longshot, we will win FL first

[The Dowager Mod]

Beto dropping the f bomb on an idiot. 
https://twitter.com/BetoMedia/status/1557536616431980544

[ProgressiveModerate]

Oh but now O Rourke has an impure soul cause he used the fbomb. Moderate suburban moms will make Collin County R + 69

[Adam Griffin]

Beto swore during 2018 as well. It's a good thing. When Democrats show emotion, that they care, & most importantly that they're willing to fight, they tend to outperform the average Generic D in a given cycle. "I am who I am & I am willing to fight for you" is the most potent combination of forces that can occur. A  cardboard cutout of a cardboard cutout - regardless of 20th century resume - often underperforms, whereas in the other extreme, somebody like Ojeda-18 did 35 points better than the past presidential contest.

Show voters that 1) you believe what you say you believe and 2) that you're willing to fight for them, and you'll almost always do better than a Generic D in any given cycle. Beto's not going to win, but if every D in such a comparable situation gave up the DC-focused shenanigans, there'd be a lot more victories - especially in rural areas.

[patzer]

I think Beto was about a decade too early here for his time. Sadly this second loss will likely end his political career; I doubt he could convince donors a third run at office is worth it.

This is his third run at office. He ran for President in 2020.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Beto dropping the f bomb on an idiot. 
https://twitter.com/BetoMedia/status/1557536616431980544

Oh yeah, that's a good one.