Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH, TX and FL are pretty much over but I still have hopes for Ryan and DEMINGS Ds have a better chance in SD, OK GOV than TX

[Gass3268]

Beto is going to outwork his way to another very close loss.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Beto is going to outwork his way to another very close loss.

A very close 10 point loss

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I doubt it's gonna be that large Latino and blk voters and females are just now coming around to Ds like they were always going to do that's why R users are getting nervous about their projection in a red wave that why so many of them left the only polls that have Rs still ahead are Trafalgar and Rassy and that's Fox news but they still have Fetterman and Kelly and Shapiro and WARNOCK ahead

The power of blk and Brown voters and females didn't show up in VA but it did in CA, AK and NY 19 Romney won 60% of the white vote in 2012 and still lost a landslide why because in WI 52/35/2 believe R policies favor the rich not the poor

That's why I still have a wave insurance maps other users don't think outside the box

[GeorgiaModerate]

I doubt it's gonna be that large Latino and blk voters and females are just now coming around to Ds like they were always going to do that's why R users are getting nervous about their projection in a red wave that why so many of them left the only polls that have Rs still ahead are Trafalgar and Rassy and that's Fox news but they still have Fetterman and Kelly and Shapiro and WARNOCK ahead

The power of blk and Brown voters and females didn't show up in VA but it did in CA, AK and NY 19 Romney won 60% of the white vote in 2012 and still lost a landslide why because in WI 52/35/2 believe R policies favor the rich not the poor

That's why I still have a wave insurance maps other users don't think outside the box

We have never doubted that you think outside the box.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not sure its been said yet, Abbott is likely going to win his race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think 2012 stands for itself it gave us the 303 map and 50/45 and 303 map we have today and that yr we won OH, MO and FL Senate races and that proves that we can win OH, NC and UT Senate races, can we win the H yes we can and nothing is final until all the votes are casted

The media always talk about the right track wrong track number 30/79%, the Wrong track number was bad in 2012 but they never talk about how bad the Rs do on economics injustice which is just as bad as the right track wrong track number that's why Ds are outpolling Biden Approvals

In WI especially that's why Johnson will lose it was 52/35/2 of Romney policies favor the rich and counter the right track wrong track number

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hot take: Abbott is gonna win

Yeah it's a 303 map, wave insurance means D H not RH but my map of course projects a DH nothing is inevitable until all votes are casted


TX only flips if Ds win the H, but WI can flip in a neutral cycle and maybe OH and NC and UT flips if Rs still win the R but of course not TX

[wbrocks67]

Another data point that this is looking closer to 2020 than anything else

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1582407875233992704

[Real Texan Politics]

Not sure if I understand the logic behind endorsing both Alexandra Mealer and Beto O’Rourke
https://twitter.com/houstonchron/status/1582458995503431682?s=46&t=dp2bBjkTT...

[Calthrina950]

Not sure if I understand the logic behind endorsing both Alexandra Mealer and Beto O’Rourke
https://twitter.com/houstonchron/status/1582458995503431682?s=46&t=dp2bBjkTT...

I don't, not entirely. But they seem to be making the case that Abbott "fooled" them, governing as a hardline extremist rather than as a seasonable, moderate establishment Republican. They view his refusal to enact any gun control legislation in the aftermath of Uvalde as a disgrace, condemn his handling of the utilities crisis from last year, and believe that his "border operation" is a waste of taxpayer money and public resources.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Houston Chronicle in 2020 also had a very bipartisan list of endorsements and it wasn’t always just “who’s more bipartisan”, but they generally seem to swing with the public.

[2016]

Given that Republicans seem to have some National Momentum on their side I would that the National Republican Surge has probably put the Texas Governor Race out of reach for Democrats.

[Real Texan Politics]

Given that Republicans seem to have some National Momentum on their side I would that the National Republican Surge has probably put the Texas Governor Race out of reach for Democrats.

You're just now figuring that out?

[Real Texan Politics]

Those Hays numbers basically confirm that Abbott will NOT be winning Hays County, nor will it be close.
https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1584716639345422337?s=20&t=aH_YuG-...
Not surprising in the slightest, as if you wanna judge by crowd sizes, Beto's rally at Texas State University may have had one of his biggest crowds during his college rally tour.

[Roll Roons]

The fact that Abbott couldn't even win Hays in 2018 shows how gone it is for the GOP.

[Ferguson97]

The fact that Abbott couldn't even win Hays in 2018 shows how gone it is for the GOP.

I'm not sure if 2018 is the "even then" year since it was the strongest statewide performance for a Democrat in a long time. Not being able to win it THIS year is the "it's gone" year.

[Real Texan Politics]

The fact that Abbott couldn't even win Hays in 2018 shows how gone it is for the GOP.

I'm not sure if 2018 is the "even then" year since it was the strongest statewide performance for a Democrat in a long time. Not being able to win it THIS year is the "it's gone" year.

With brutal trends for Rs, a major university with a large student population, and with Austin not being too far away, those factors are pretty much enough for this county to already be considered "gone"

I currently have Hays as likely D and have no plans to change that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The fact that Abbott couldn't even win Hays in 2018 shows how gone it is for the GOP.

I'm not sure if 2018 is the "even then" year since it was the strongest statewide performance for a Democrat in a long time. Not being able to win it THIS year is the "it's gone" year.

With brutal trends for Rs, a major university with a large student population, and with Austin not being too far away, those factors are pretty much enough for this county to already be considered "gone"

What happened in Hays could happen in Bastrop, given time. Though it's far from there...yet. The area around Austin is like the opposite of the RGV in how it's been trending.

[Real Texan Politics]

The fact that Abbott couldn't even win Hays in 2018 shows how gone it is for the GOP.

I'm not sure if 2018 is the "even then" year since it was the strongest statewide performance for a Democrat in a long time. Not being able to win it THIS year is the "it's gone" year.

With brutal trends for Rs, a major university with a large student population, and with Austin not being too far away, those factors are pretty much enough for this county to already be considered "gone"

What happened in Hays could happen in Bastrop, given time. Though it's far from there...yet. The area around Austin is like the opposite of the RGV in how it's been trending.

A lot of it may also have to do with rapid urbanization in the areas between Austin and these exurban cities like Bastrop and (until recently) San Marcos. With places like Bastrop and Elgin, there's still quite a bit of rural countryside in between those towns and the main urban cluster of Austin and its suburbs. But with the recent rapid growth of Kyle and Buda, that rural countryside that used to separate Austin and San Marcos is being urbanized fast. This can also already be seen with the suburbs of Georgetown, Hutto, and Taylor, and that's also part of why trends in Williamson County are some of the most brutal for Republicans, possibly even more so than in Collin, Denton, or Fort Bend.

[Mr. Smith]

The fact that Abbott couldn't even win Hays in 2018 shows how gone it is for the GOP.

I'm not sure if 2018 is the "even then" year since it was the strongest statewide performance for a Democrat in a long time. Not being able to win it THIS year is the "it's gone" year.

With brutal trends for Rs, a major university with a large student population, and with Austin not being too far away, those factors are pretty much enough for this county to already be considered "gone"

What happened in Hays could happen in Bastrop, given time. Though it's far from there...yet. The area around Austin is like the opposite of the RGV in how it's been trending.

A lot of it may also have to do with rapid urbanization in the areas between Austin and these exurban cities like Bastrop and (until recently) San Marcos. With places like Bastrop and Elgin, there's still quite a bit of rural countryside in between those towns and the main urban cluster of Austin and its suburbs. But with the recent rapid growth of Kyle and Buda, that rural countryside that used to separate Austin and San Marcos is being urbanized fast. This can also already be seen with the suburbs of Georgetown, Hutto, and Taylor, and that's also part of why trends in Williamson County are some of the most brutal for Republicans, possibly even more so than in Collin, Denton, or Fort Bend.

Not to mention Temple/Belton/Killeen to the north.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The fact that Abbott couldn't even win Hays in 2018 shows how gone it is for the GOP.

I'm not sure if 2018 is the "even then" year since it was the strongest statewide performance for a Democrat in a long time. Not being able to win it THIS year is the "it's gone" year.

With brutal trends for Rs, a major university with a large student population, and with Austin not being too far away, those factors are pretty much enough for this county to already be considered "gone"

What happened in Hays could happen in Bastrop, given time. Though it's far from there...yet. The area around Austin is like the opposite of the RGV in how it's been trending.

A lot of it may also have to do with rapid urbanization in the areas between Austin and these exurban cities like Bastrop and (until recently) San Marcos. With places like Bastrop and Elgin, there's still quite a bit of rural countryside in between those towns and the main urban cluster of Austin and its suburbs. But with the recent rapid growth of Kyle and Buda, that rural countryside that used to separate Austin and San Marcos is being urbanized fast. This can also already be seen with the suburbs of Georgetown, Hutto, and Taylor, and that's also part of why trends in Williamson County are some of the most brutal for Republicans, possibly even more so than in Collin, Denton, or Fort Bend.

Not to mention Temple/Belton/Killeen to the north.

Honestly, Bell County is a bit too far out to ever truly be part of Austin the way Denton has been pulled into DFW, however, it does seem like some of it's influence still pulls over a little bit.

[Ferguson97]

https://www.univision.com/univision-news/politics/inflation-worries-texas-voters-republican-candidates-most-favored-midterm-elections-univision-news-poll

Choice for governor

Latinos: Beto 58 / Abbott 28

'How well do you think the word 'socialist' describes Biden and the Democrats'

Latinos: Describes well 60 / Does not describe well 40

Texas Latinos, apparently: "The Democrats are socialists and that's a good thing"

[Real Texan Politics]

https://www.univision.com/univision-news/politics/inflation-worries-texas-voters-republican-candidates-most-favored-midterm-elections-univision-news-poll

Choice for governor

Latinos: Beto 58 / Abbott 28

'How well do you think the word 'socialist' describes Biden and the Democrats'

Latinos: Describes well 60 / Does not describe well 40

Texas Latinos, apparently: "The Democrats are socialists and that's a good thing"

I just cannot see Beto winning Hispanics by 30. I don’t even think Hillary Clinton won them by that much (at least in Texas)?

[Ferguson97]

I just cannot see Beto winning Hispanics by 30. I don’t even think Hillary Clinton won them by that much (at least in Texas)?

According to NBC, she won Latinos by 27% in Texas (compared to 36% nationwide).

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/tx/