USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[Skill and Chance]

So I guess the biggest question is Alabama's 7th vs New York's 26th. Any other possible surprises to look out for?

MN holding on to its 8th district is an underrated surprise scenario IMO.  Civic engagement is super high there, and 2020 was a year when people had to go out of their way more than usual to get counted.   

[Skill and Chance]

Also, I think there's an underrated possibility that the oil crash plus lack of state interest/investment in supporting the count keeps Texas at +2 instead of +3.

[Skill and Chance]

Also, I think there's an underrated possibility that the oil crash plus lack of state interest/investment in supporting the count keeps Texas at +2 instead of +3.

Can California avoid loosing a seat ?. The state has been doing suprisingly well in some respects with tax revenue.

Highly unlikely.  CA-53 is almost as far down the order of precedence as VA-12.  There would have to be 4 or 5 different surprises in other states for that to happen.  

TX-39, AL-07, NY-26, and MN-08 are all sitting right on the bubble.  

[Skill and Chance]

I'm making the prediction Florida will be bigger than expected (Expected Population: 21,673,328) because of improved outreach to people. I've seen it with my own eyes, this year it was way bigger and more expansive than it was 10 years ago, there were signs and flyers everywhere, and the census takers knocked on our door 5 different times even after we filled the form out online. The last census my family didn't even get counted, there was zero outreach. This maybe is just my neighborhood but I wouldn't be surprised if it's a common experience.

Yes, I strongly expect FL to overperform.  Absolutely no doubt it gains 2 seats.  The housing market there is on fire in a way that puts 2006 to shame. 

[Skill and Chance]

Inner NOVA also tends to always beat its estimates, probably also due to super high civic engagement.  VA isn't close enough to the bubble for it to matter this time, but it could put the state back on track to pick up VA-12 in 2031.

[Skill and Chance]

A lot is riding on whether pandemic Sunbelt migration/WFH from vacation home was over or undercounted.  The later most people in an area responded, the more it would be accounted for.  College towns could also end up underpopulated vs. expectations.  In some states, it's a tradeoff between more more exposure to pandemic migration/resort WFH vs. more exposure to the commodities crash.  If you're Texas or Montana, I don't know which outcome you are hoping for...

[Skill and Chance]

If you consider self-response rates as a good indicator for how much we can expect states to overperform or underperform, then Nevada is another prime target for overperforming.

Nevada tied with Washington state to experience the highest increase in self-response rate between 2010 and 2020, and went from 61.4% to 66.6% (+5.2%)

Michigan comes in third, with its self-response rate increasing by +3.6%, and Arizona and Colorado tie for fourth, with both of them having their self-response rates increase by +2.8%.

On the flipside, Montana had the worst decline, with its self-response rate going from 64.6% to 60.4% (-4.2%).

South Carolina (-3.7%), North Dakota (-3.6%), West Virginia (-2.9%), and Wyoming (-2.3%) all experienced collapses in self-response rates as well.

Among larger states, Texas was notable for its decrease in self-response rate as well.


Here's a full map where you can take a look at trends in self-reporting between 2010 and 2020:



Image Link

Hmmm... this looks really bad for MT-02 and fairly bad for TX-39, but pretty encouraging for AL-07, MN-08, and NY-26 and really great for C0-08, AZ-10, and OR-06.  And look, there's those extra 50K people in VA-10/11 again!

[Skill and Chance]

Wow major Sunbelt undercount!

[Skill and Chance]

This is close to the best case scenario for Dems from this apportionment.  Total control over 26 seats in NY, additional CD in MN forces MN-01 to get more urban, no extra GOP leaning seat in AZ, Texas is an unambiguous plus because they have to concede an Austin seat now anyway and the RGV redraw is harder with bigger seats, even the safe seat in RI stays.  Wow.

[Skill and Chance]

The seat not lost in RI was definitely D. The seat not lost in MN was probably R? The seat not lost in AL would have been D if Republicans could get away with it.

The seats not gained in TX, FL, and AZ all definitely R.

On paper, yes, but a court map is going to force one of the 4 outstate R districts to get more urban, probably MN-01. 

[Skill and Chance]

The seat not lost in RI was definitely D. The seat not lost in MN was probably R? The seat not lost in AL would have been D if Republicans could get away with it.

The seats not gained in TX, FL, and AZ all definitely R.

AZ is a commision and idk the lean.

True for TX and FL though.

Yes, in TX they basically have to concede an Austin seat and make Allred's Dallas suburbs seat safe Dem to protect the surrounding GOP incumbents.  Also, fewer districts makes it harder to mess with Fletcher in Houston if they were so inclined.  

IDK what to make of FL, really comes down to whether the court is now a rubber stamp and whether the legislature assumes they will be.

[Skill and Chance]

New York was 89 people away from not losing any seats?

What.

Looks like active state investment in the count really mattered in the pandemic environment.  

[Skill and Chance]

These patterns seem extremely suggestive of large Latino under-counts, likely down to the Trump admin's relentless politicizing and citizenship question.

The next question is whether things have shifted enough to alter existing VRA district requirements in SW states.  

[Skill and Chance]

Also, can’t wait for the imminent (and asinine) 269-269 TIE scenarios/maps/threads on the 2024 board.

It's a lot more probable now with AZ staying at an odd number of EVs.

[Skill and Chance]

New York was 89 people away from not losing any seats?

What.

I guess when those people were declaring "I'm leaving New York!" they actually meant leaving Manhattan for Westchester or LI.

Or barely anyone other than a few self-important pundits actually left cities?

Anyway, this is good but CA losing while so many other places don't is just disgusting.

Oh there were definitely people who left cities, just 1) not as much as the media portrayed it, and 2) not as far from major cities as the media also portrayed--people moved from Manhattan to Jersey City/Westchester, or from DC to Arlington/Alexandria

Also, the oil crash didn't get enough attention.  Likely explains lack of TX-39 and lower MT population than RI.

[Skill and Chance]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

I don't know but I get the feeling that Boise and SLC are the metros to watch this decade. Whether it shows up in apportionment by 2030 is beyond my guess.

Correct. 10-year projections are a crapshoot but the inner Mountain West (Idaho to 3, Utah and Nevada to 5, Arizona to 10) all look probable for 2030.

MS-04 has to be in danger for 2030 if the current trend continues.  How far from the chopping block was MS this time around?

[Skill and Chance]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

At this rate:

New York: 50,000,000
California: 40,000,000
New Jersey: 30,000,000
Texas: 25,000,000
Florida: 15,000,000

So multiple Cat 5 hurricane hits or the Great Gulf Coast Mosquito Fever of 2027?

[Skill and Chance]

VA not having gained anything since 1990 is honestly astonishing to me.

Not that shocking.  Early 2010's austerity followed by the 1st anti-military industrial complex Republican since WWII effectively ended the NOVA population boom.

[Skill and Chance]

Of the close seats here is my opinion of the results

FL/TX Gaining only 3 instead of 5. Good for D's in EC. Probably good news for D's in the house. albiet with the Caveat is that if there was a minority undercount here it would expand any packed seats. This could hurt Fletcher as the 3 Houston packs, can expand a bit more if my assumption is true. In FL I am not sure.

AZ-not gaining, not sure. This does mean Dems now have the excuse of using least change to protect the gerrymander in outstate. The Gerrymander in Maricopa is actually a slight dummymander by now by overpacking AZ09. AZ does have a Latino population but whites are relatively liberal here so the main group is whites.
MT+1- not a surprise but wasn't a certainty. Good for Rs in the EC but the Montana supreme court rigged the commission pretty hard so good for D's in the house.

MN keeps- not super surprising. Good for D's in the EC. IMO neutral overall for the house delegation.

RI-Keeping, definitely good for D's in the EC and 98% good for D's in the house map. They might want to consider shoring up the outer seat a touch.

AL-Keeping, good for R's in the EC. Probably good for Rs in house too as I didn't expect them to try to chop the black seat

NY-1. Surprised it was that close to 27 . Not surprised by 26 exactly though. However its mostly good for D's although 26 seats is a bit awkward compared to 25 where 1 NYC/1 Upstate would be cut. With 26 seats the mean of population loss is somewhere in Delgado's/SPM's seat and the Hudson River Valley is relatively bottlenecked.

Yes, I misspoke earlier.  Texas at only 38 CDs hurts Fletcher but helps the South Texas Dems as the VRA districts all have to be bigger than expected and under VRA rules, they specifically need to use Trump-voting Hispanic areas to help Tony Gonzalez.  That could save Vicente Gonzalez's seat for Dems.

[Skill and Chance]

2020 election with 2020 reapportionment numbers:
303 D - 236 R

2016:
231 D - 307 R

2012:
329 D - 209 R

2008:
357 D - 181 R

2004:
242 D - 296 R

2000:
249 D - 289 R

1996:
364 D - 174 R

1992:
353 D - 185 R

Ignored F*ithless electors.

Interesting that it only shifts a couple EV in the most recent 3 elections, but would have hugely benefited Bush and the 1990's Republicans. 

[Skill and Chance]

In terms of NY being so close, what would've been the 436th seat?

NY-27, apparently.

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats are already trying to get LA (?), MN and PA redistricting thrown to state courts over federal courts.

https://twitter.com/DemRedistrict/status/1386845658280349699?s=20

LA has explicitly partisan state court elections.  The state supreme court is 5R/1D/1I(former rural Dem).  Not sure what they are thinking there?

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats are already trying to get LA (?), MN and PA redistricting thrown to state courts over federal courts.

https://twitter.com/DemRedistrict/status/1386845658280349699?s=20

LA has explicitly partisan state court elections and only 1 Dem is on the supreme court right now.  Not sure what they are thinking there?

Maybe they think it would be better than the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals?

With Biden and the Dem senate, even the 5th Circuit will likely be less lopsided conservative by the time redistricting gets there.

[Skill and Chance]

The house size needs to be expanded. The undercount is so obvious here

If just nineteen seats were added to the house, no states would lose any seats this redistricting cycle (I believe WV-3 is the 454th seat). You’d have thought that some representative from a state that’s losing out would want to put forward a bill to expand the house a bit so they can keep their seat...

It also has the potential to change close presidential election outcomes.  2000 flips by roughly doubling the size of the House and 1916 would have flipped with a stadium-size House roughly 60X the current size!

[Skill and Chance]

Apologies if someone has already mentioned this, but if there was a significant Hispanic undercount, would it have affected Mexican/Central American Americans more than groups like Cuban Americans?

Most likely.  I bet FL and TX were both undercounted though.  

Good going Republicans!  Making Hispanics afraid to answer the census likely cost you two seats in Congress and 2 electoral votes for a decade.

This is the standard take, but I think it needs more supporting evidence that it currently has, which we’ll only know when we get the redistricting data.

FL and TX only mildly missed their estimates baselines - both by less than a point, depending on the baseline. MN beat its estimates baseline by about 1 point, AL 2 and NY and RI about 4 points. So the real story may be NY and (especially) RI doing much better than expected more than TX and FL lagging. (PR, HI, NJ and VT were among the other major overachievers).

AZ significantly underperformed its baseline estimate, just as it did in 2010. It’s a serial lagger for some reason.

Hmmm... this makes it seem more like an issue with the estimates missing young Millennial/Gen Z urban hipsters than the census itself missing Sunbelt Hispanics?