COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Sbane]

Promising numbers from today. Let's not lift the restrictions until at least may, then we will be able to allow the warm weather to prevent the case numbers from getting out of control.

The summer will be a break. We will use the time to implement tracing and prepare the medical system for the fall wave so that we won't have to implement lockdowns when the fall wave hits.

Hopefully it works out this way. We should have a better idea of which therapies work by that time. If it is one of the experimental drugs such as Remdesivir, we should help the drug company ramp up production.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/jacobbogage/status/1248323451196248071

What percentage of Americans go to games anyway?  Plus, people are viewing it from the prism of today, not the prism of the coronavirus landscape when these events happen.

But, regardless, I'm in the minority of people who will have no hesitation about doing anything I normally would.  I'm not scared of this virus.

Nor remotely "scared" about potentially infecting countless other people with your recklessness.

As best I can tell your motivation is something about owning the libs. Truly awe-inspiring.

Please don't assume my motivations for anything.  A German study based on antibodies just concluded that this has a 0.37% fatality rate.  That's slightly worse than the flu, but not bad enough to justify keeping society shut down.  If people think that they are uniquely predisposed, they should be able to make personal decisions to self-quarantine past when it's no longer mandatory.  But all I said is that I'm going to go on living my life the day the government says I can and won't continue to isolate myself.  I'm not sure how that's controversial.

This has nothing to do with "owning the libs" (I've actually been following this since January and was told by friends that it was no big deal six weeks before everything shut down).  I can recognize that this is an extremely contagious virus but also that it's not a particularly deadly one.

It's not just about the death rate though. This overwhlemed the hospitals in Lombardy. It overhwlemed the hospitals in NYC. I said this before and you didn't say anything.

The UW model has revised itself downwards on multiple occasions and now shows that most states are going to come nowhere near hospital capacity.  In fact, I've heard some reports of some hospitals becoming less busy than usual with the lack of elective procedures and other contagious illness.  While I didn't really agree with this aggressive of social distancing, we've kind of made our bed with it for the month of April.  Models show that cases will be quite low by May 1st.  I'm just arguing that we have to begin reopening then.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Some latest plots from the UK and France which I have upgraded to include predicted growth.

The model is based on amplitude of the initial responses from data from China, South Korea, Australia, Italy and Spain and the time periods between maximum growth and maximum Active cases.

This allows a positively skewed bell curve to be calculated for other countries based on best fit.

The results are:

UK



Peak Active Cases and the associated date will change slightly when new data comes in, but the model updates itself daily. UK has the least predictable situation as it has yet to slow down. Germany, Italy and Spain should show a clearer picture.


France



France has a higher predicted peak in Active Cases but should be out of the woods earlier.

These models can change, and obviously will change as new data comes in. For example, the USA has a highly accelerated growth curve, so those cases will resolve to an outcome just as fast. Hence a steeper recovery is predicted.

In terms of growth alone, this is something that is starting to really take shape:



These growth curves are real key to understanding how this virus will play out over time.

Will make some Germany, Spain and USA predictive plots tomorrow (and Australian).

[Skill and Chance]

Some observations from the per capita maps:

1. Tech-oriented areas have fared remarkably well, even if they had other factors going against them (large homeless populations, substantial density and public transit, etc).  Compare the Bay Area, Seattle, Denver, and Austin to any of the large NE/Midwest cities.  Pittsburgh, with substantial high tech influence, also stands out in a happy way compared to the rest of the Rust Belt.  

2. Most rural areas have so far escaped with a single digit or barely double digit # of cases, but a handful got nailed worse than NYC per capita and have hundreds.  There are very few in between outcomes.    

3. The South has fared surprisingly well given that they were later to take precautions and in some states, more reluctant.  Florida has a problem, particularly in Miami, but it thus far did not see explosive NY style growth as feared.  Atlanta has thus far avoided the fate of New Orleans.

4. Something went very wrong in New Orleans vs. the rest of the South.  Orleans and Jefferson parishes are comparable to NYC per capita, and there are all kinds of suburban and rural parishes in eastern Louisiana that have ~1/2 the confirmed infection rate of NYC.  The only other place in the South we see anything like this is around Albany, GA, one of the worst hit rural areas in the country.  Mardi Gras is something (nearly) unique to NOLA and it could be a significant factor.  The parts of Texas with the most Louisiana cultural influence also have a worse problem than statewide.

5. Ski resorts fared very poorly per capita.  This may be something peculiar to skiing/mountains, because other types of resorty areas (Vegas, Orlando, most beaches) don't seem to have fared any worse than the nationwide average.  

6.  Smaller cities didn't necessarily help.  Detroit has a worse problem than Chicago and NEPA has a worse problem than Philadelphia.

7.  Kentucky has fared significantly better than Tennessee and Ohio than any of PA/MI/IN/IL.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

WSJ Opinion:  Virus mortality crashes as economic misery skyrockets.

WSJ should be embarrassed for publishing this dog crap and paying this moron. A journalist and "economist" with zero medical credentials belittling the advice of medical experts and accusing them of a waging a "war" on the economy? Get the fkcu out of here with that. I think COVID-19 will be a crystallizing moment for the country, when it finally realizes its had just about enough of the right wing's war on expertise and knowledge.

The WSJ is just highbrow FoxNews. Like everything else Murdoch (and most things Republicans), it's the civilizational equivalent of radioactive waste.

[It’s so Joever]

WSJ Opinion:  Virus mortality crashes as economic misery skyrockets.

WSJ should be embarrassed for publishing this dog crap and paying this moron. A journalist and "economist" with zero medical credentials belittling the advice of medical experts and accusing them of a waging a "war" on the economy? Get the fkcu out of here with that. I think COVID-19 will be a crystallizing moment for the country, when it finally realizes its had just about enough of the right wing's war on expertise and knowledge.

The WSJ is just highbrow FoxNews. Like everything else Murdoch (and most things Republicans), it's the civilizational equivalent of radioactive waste.

Only the opinion pieces.

[T'Chenka]

LMFAO, I go to work and come back and there's now a poster in here arguing that the death count is inflated because a bunch of people got COVID-19, got hospitalized for it, and then died... for non-COVID reasons. What the f__k is this? Cirque de Soliel has NOTHING on these mental gymnastics.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Some observations from the per capita maps:

3. The South has fared surprisingly well given that they were later to take precautions and in some states, more reluctant.  Florida has a problem, particularly in Miami, but it thus far did not see explosive NY style growth as feared.  Atlanta has thus far avoided the fate of New Orleans.

Part of it is weather.  While warmer weather isn't going to make the virus go away by itself, it does tend to spread slightly less effectively in warmer weather.  Much of the South has been in the 80s over the last few weeks, so that has probably slowed it a little bit.  I will say that cooler weather is forecasted for the next week or two, but probably still warmer than other parts of the country.

[Skill and Chance]

Some observations from the per capita maps:

3. The South has fared surprisingly well given that they were later to take precautions and in some states, more reluctant.  Florida has a problem, particularly in Miami, but it thus far did not see explosive NY style growth as feared.  Atlanta has thus far avoided the fate of New Orleans.

Part of it is weather.  While warmer weather isn't going to make the virus go away by itself, it does tend to spread slightly less effectively in warmer weather.  Much of the South has been in the 80s over the last few weeks, so that has probably slowed it a little bit.  I will say that cooler weather is forecasted for the next week or two, but probably still warmer than other parts of the country.

I am hesitant about the weather explanation because of New Orleans and looking internationally, Singapore.  New Orleans was 68 degrees on Mardi Gras and had many days above 80 in March.  Granted, Mardi Gras can have an exceptional level of physical contact and crowding vs. US norms.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Some observations from the per capita maps:

3. The South has fared surprisingly well given that they were later to take precautions and in some states, more reluctant.  Florida has a problem, particularly in Miami, but it thus far did not see explosive NY style growth as feared.  Atlanta has thus far avoided the fate of New Orleans.

Part of it is weather.  While warmer weather isn't going to make the virus go away by itself, it does tend to spread slightly less effectively in warmer weather.  Much of the South has been in the 80s over the last few weeks, so that has probably slowed it a little bit.  I will say that cooler weather is forecasted for the next week or two, but probably still warmer than other parts of the country.

Weather is definitely a factor. In Western Australia, we have had a very hot humid climate for the last week.

If you were to come from USA to Western Australia, you could go outside into the heat and the hot humid air will literally open up your nose and sinuses and thin out the volume of tissue where inflammation could occur where infections thrive.

This means that people have clear sinuses. Most flu and bacterial infection will therefore have a reduced probability of infecting people. At the middle-end of winter when you have sticky inflamed tissue in your nostrils and throat to infect, this is more likely a much better scenario for viral spread.

So cold weather makes for more infectious people for the flu.

But the main reason is that most viruses don't like humid air. If you were made of a thin lipid casing, you probably would not like hot humid conditions either.

That is why we have a flu season. In cold weather, the lipid coating of the flu remains intact more.

This has been clearly established:

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/flu-virus-fortified-colder-weather

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Updated cumulative European case & death graphs (5-day weighted averages).  Italy & Spain remain down from their highs of three weeks ago, but I'm seeing very little improvement over the past several days.

[emailking]

So cold weather makes for more infectious people for the flu.

But the main reason is that most viruses don't like humid air. If you were made of a thin lipid casing, you probably would not like hot humid conditions either.

That is why we have a flu season. In cold weather, the lipid coating of the flu remains intact more.

How does it remain intact in the 100 deg body? That's what I don't get about these temperature arguments. The UV index explanation makes more sense.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1248374630399672321

Mass graves... just one more day in Donald Trump's Great Republican America.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1248374630399672321

Mass graves... just one more day in Donald Trump's Great Republican America.

From 25 burials a week to 24 per day. RIP.

[Del Tachi]

5. Ski resorts fared very poorly per capita.  This may be something peculiar to skiing/mountains, because other types of resorty areas (Vegas, Orlando, most beaches) don't seem to have fared any worse than the nationwide average. 

Seasonality in tourism.  Ski resorts are busy in January/February, beaches are not. 

[Meclazine for Israel]

So cold weather makes for more infectious people for the flu.

But the main reason is that most viruses don't like humid air. If you were made of a thin lipid casing, you probably would not like hot humid conditions either.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3030173/

That is why we have a flu season. In cold weather, the lipid coating of the flu remains intact more.

How does it remain intact in the 100 deg body? That's what I don't get about these temperature arguments. The UV index explanation makes more sense.

This article suggests influenza simply has a range of stiffness and softness with temperature.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3030173/

"For the temperatures tested here (13–37°C), the envelope stiffness was only mildly affected by temperature, showing no drastic transition."

Which means that it can survive inside a host comfortably in a liquid environment in your lungs or mouth.

But left outside on a surface in hot and humid conditions, it's survival is limited if the surface temperature gets above 40 deg C.

The real question is whether it can get through air conditioning and how long it can survive on a cold surface before losing it's bio-active status.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/1248300398454112258?s=20

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1248374630399672321
Mass graves... just one more day in Donald Trump's Great Republican America.

Keep America Great™

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I just noticed that Trump's grandfather Frederick Trump was one of the early deaths of Spanish flu in the weak 1st wave.

[Joe Republic]

I just noticed that Trump's grandfather Frederick Trump was one of the early deaths of Spanish flu in the weak 1st wave.

"I didn't know people died from the flu." — Frederick Trump’s grandson, March 8th 2020

[T'Chenka]

I just noticed that Trump's grandfather Frederick Trump was one of the early deaths of Spanish flu in the weak 1st wave.

"I didn't know people died from the flu." — Frederick Trump’s grandson, March 8th 2020

His grandson is a dullard. That's my new word for Trump and I feel it's pretty accurate.

[FrancoAgo]

Someones can link me the german study with a fatality rate of 0.37%?
Also if is in deutsch

[Smeulders]

Someones can link me the german study with a fatality rate of 0.37%?
Also if is in deutsch

https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf

Edit: The link is a rather brief summary of the results. No information about the subpopulations, no information about confidence intervals. I am going to assume the researchers know what they are doing, but some things to keep in mind.

- The sample size is 1000, but in 400 households. Clearly all participants are not independent, so confidence intervals would be (much) higher than 1000 person study with truly independent participants.
- There is some talk that Germans criteria for a Covid death are much stricter than most other countries. Nothing unreasonable, but something people need to be aware off. 

[FrancoAgo]

Someones can link me the german study with a fatality rate of 0.37%?
Also if is in deutsch

https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf

thanks