2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[Minnesota Mike]

If he makes the ballot, this is probably pretty bad for Biden, as polls show him losing 10% of primary voters to RFK.

LOL no. If he matters at all, which I doubt, he takes more votes from Trump.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If he makes the ballot, this is probably pretty bad for Biden, as polls show him losing 10% of primary voters to RFK.

LOL no. If he matters at all, which I doubt, he takes more votes from Trump.

Then why do polls show so many voters in the Democratic Primary choosing RFK Jr. over Biden? He actually polls better than DeSantis does versus Trump.

[President Johnson]

Congrats to your 0.1% of the popular vote.

[Tekken_Guy]

If he makes the ballot, this is probably pretty bad for Biden, as polls show him losing 10% of primary voters to RFK.

LOL no. If he matters at all, which I doubt, he takes more votes from Trump.

Then why do polls show so many voters in the Democratic Primary choosing RFK Jr. over Biden? He actually polls better than DeSantis does versus Trump.

Because RFK appeals to “Trump Democrats”.

[The Mikado]

The important question is does he drop out of the Dem primary when he does that?

Anyway I expect Marianne Williamson's campaign is basically broke (it had just a couple hundred k at the end of last quarter and we'll be finding out soon) and she will probably drop out in the next few months. Quite possible Biden will be the only Dem name on the ballot in most states.

[randomusername]

If he makes the ballot, this is probably pretty bad for Biden, as polls show him losing 10% of primary voters to RFK.

LOL no. If he matters at all, which I doubt, he takes more votes from Trump.

Then why do polls show so many voters in the Democratic Primary choosing RFK Jr. over Biden? He actually polls better than DeSantis does versus Trump.

Well this is misleading because there are more candidates in the Republican primary than in the Democratic to split the anti-Biden vote. Biden has a 50.1 average lead against RFK Jr. vs Trump's 43.1 average lead against DeSantis, according to RCP.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If he makes the ballot, this is probably pretty bad for Biden, as polls show him losing 10% of primary voters to RFK.

LOL no. If he matters at all, which I doubt, he takes more votes from Trump.

Then why do polls show so many voters in the Democratic Primary choosing RFK Jr. over Biden? He actually polls better than DeSantis does versus Trump.

Because RFK appeals to “Trump Democrats”.

Trump isn't winning 15% of Democrats (the percentage RFK Jr. is currently polling). If he was, he'd win in a landslide nationally.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The Democratic version of Trump continues to stay in character.

I'm often at odds with the Democrats as a party for a number of reasons. But watching how they handled RFK Jr. versus how the GOP has treated Donald Trump (and continues to treat him) makes it clear how much better they are as a party than the morally bankrupt GOP.

[Roronoa D. Law]

If he makes the ballot, this is probably pretty bad for Biden, as polls show him losing 10% of primary voters to RFK.

LOL no. If he matters at all, which I doubt, he takes more votes from Trump.

Then why do polls show so many voters in the Democratic Primary choosing RFK Jr. over Biden? He actually polls better than DeSantis does versus Trump.

Cause people want someone else and his last name is Kennedy. His support is fragile and not well informed either. A lot the voters will fall in line if Biden is the nominee or not vote at all. This isnt going anywhere

[GeorgiaModerate]

If he makes the ballot, this is probably pretty bad for Biden, as polls show him losing 10% of primary voters to RFK.

LOL no. If he matters at all, which I doubt, he takes more votes from Trump.

Then why do polls show so many voters in the Democratic Primary choosing RFK Jr. over Biden? He actually polls better than DeSantis does versus Trump.

Because RFK appeals to “Trump Democrats”.

Also, polls consistently show RFKjr with higher favorability among Republicans than Democrats.  But in any event, I expect his candidacy will have a negligible effect on the race.

[Morning in Atlas]

We're so ****ing back.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If he makes the ballot, this is probably pretty bad for Biden, as polls show him losing 10% of primary voters to RFK.

LOL no. If he matters at all, which I doubt, he takes more votes from Trump.

Then why do polls show so many voters in the Democratic Primary choosing RFK Jr. over Biden? He actually polls better than DeSantis does versus Trump.

Because RFK appeals to “Trump Democrats”.

Trump isn't winning 15% of Democrats (the percentage RFK Jr. is currently polling). If he was, he'd win in a landslide nationally.

But not all -- or even that many -- of those RFK voters will follow him to an independent candidacy.  And of those that do, many were probably not voting for Biden anyway, and latched onto RFK because he was an alternative with a famous name.  That is, they're not so much dedicated RFK voters as anti-Biden voters.

If you think this is going to pull a significant number of net votes away from Biden, you're engaging in very wishful thinking.

[The Mikado]

I think a lot of people are focusing on the "famous name" angle and not the just general "some people want to vote against Biden in the primary and will pick any name from a list given to them to do so" angle. Wouldn't be surprised to see Williamson rise somewhat with RFK withdrawing from the Dem primary (if this indeed happens) just because she'll be the only non-Biden name left in the poll. Some Biden 70 Williamson 17 or whatever polls will indicate that a lot of RFK support in the primary is just looking for the most famous non-Biden name.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1707835343813148721

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

If he makes the ballot, this is probably pretty bad for Biden, as polls show him losing 10% of primary voters to RFK.

LOL no. If he matters at all, which I doubt, he takes more votes from Trump.

Then why do polls show so many voters in the Democratic Primary choosing RFK Jr. over Biden? He actually polls better than DeSantis does versus Trump.

Because RFK appeals to “Trump Democrats”.

Trump isn't winning 15% of Democrats (the percentage RFK Jr. is currently polling). If he was, he'd win in a landslide nationally.

Do you know how many Trumpers I've seen say they're gonna vote for Rfk, Jr. in the Dem primary since Trump has the GOP one locked up? More than a handful, and considering you don't have to prove anything to 'vote' in a poll, I think you're giving those polls for Rfk, Jr a fair bit too much credit. I am pretty certain those people wouldn't be voting for Democrats in any scenario outside their Manchurian candidate/trojan horse, lol.

[All Along The Watchtower]

"You know, I voted for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in 2020 and was gonna vote for them again in 2024, but I really like what RFK Jr's been saying about the evils of vaccines, about how Anthony Fauci and Bill Gates deliberately prolonged COVID, about how the COVID virus is a Jewish-Chinese COVID bioweapon, and about how gender dysphoria is a consequence of a contaminated water supply."

- a non-negligible number of Democrats by November 2024

[xavier110]

I don’t know what 4D chess the billionaire alt-conservatives bankrolling and advising him are playing here, but I don’t get it. Failure after failure with RDS and RFK Jr.

My only theory is that they’re trying to make their actual favored candidate — Trump — look palatable, in comparison, for conspiratorial Rs and Ds. Lol

[AltWorlder]

The important question is does he drop out of the Dem primary when he does that?

Anyway I expect Marianne Williamson's campaign is basically broke (it had just a couple hundred k at the end of last quarter and we'll be finding out soon) and she will probably drop out in the next few months. Quite possible Biden will be the only Dem name on the ballot in most states.

Joe Exotic has proven to be a pretty disappointing meme primary candidate. Most underperforming meme since Kanye.

"You know, I voted for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in 2020 and was gonna vote for them again in 2024, but I really like what RFK Jr's been saying about the evils of vaccines, about how Anthony Fauci and Bill Gates deliberately prolonged COVID, about how the COVID virus is a Jewish-Chinese COVID bioweapon, and about how gender dysphoria is a consequence of a contaminated water supply."

- a non-negligible number of Democrats by November 2024

Most voters are low-information and don't pay attention to all of these news and probably thinks he's legit because he has a Kennedy in the name. Just like many Trump voters probably assumed he's a good guy because he's on TV and hosted The Apprentice, now how can you accuse someone who's famous of being a racist, you're just being crazy and overreacting

[DrScholl]

He's taken up a very right-wing, conspiracy sort of platform so he will take more votes from Trump.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Plot twist: JFK Jr will become VP after all!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If he makes the ballot, this is probably pretty bad for Biden, as polls show him losing 10% of primary voters to RFK.

LOL no. If he matters at all, which I doubt, he takes more votes from Trump.

Then why do polls show so many voters in the Democratic Primary choosing RFK Jr. over Biden? He actually polls better than DeSantis does versus Trump.

Because he’s winning voters that are probably done with the Democratic Party and are protest voting, just like that guy in 2012 got votes in WV/OK

[Progressive Pessimist]

RFK as a third party will probably get more attention for his outlandish platforn, and any tepid Democrats will recognize for sure that he isn't worth supporting.

I could see him winning more Trumpy voters, but I still doubt he ends up with much of an impact in the end.

[emailking]

If he makes the ballot, this is probably pretty bad for Biden, as polls show him losing 10% of primary voters to RFK.

LOL no. If he matters at all, which I doubt, he takes more votes from Trump.

Then why do polls show so many voters in the Democratic Primary choosing RFK Jr. over Biden? He actually polls better than DeSantis does versus Trump.

Those aren't general election polls.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

He'll barely get any votes. He'd have a better shot running for the Libertarian nomination.

[beaver2.0]

If he makes the ballot, this is probably pretty bad for Biden, as polls show him losing 10% of primary voters to RFK.

I hardly think 10% of Democrats will end up pulling a lever for RFK Jr in a general election. I think his best chance was in the primary where he was a good protest choice. In a general election, many Democrats that might have voted for him in the primary will feel that they are throwing the election to Trump.