PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

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I hope Doug Mastriano runs for either and then loses horribly in the general, can't stand hearing about him daily anymore.  Seriously the worst state legislature in my local area I've ever had the misfortune of having to hear about.

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Yes, it’s pretty much a given that any D nominee here will vastly outspend whoever the Republicans put up, but we’ve also seen that there are obvious limits as to how far that can get you, especially in what is likely to be a more unfavorable environment for Democrats than 2020. Costello’s not going to win the primary, nor do we need a 'centrist' Republican to hold this seat if the messaging + rhetoric are right/the campaign is conducted competently. Toss-up with any Democrat, but Tilt R for now.

I fail to see how its not a tossup, too many unknowns about 2022 and the state GOP has a history of f-ing up by nominating insane people in winnable races or managing to blow things horribly in otherwise good GOP years

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Ah, not how i'd classify a tossup but fair enough.

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Republicans probably should and will abandon Parnell unless he can unequivocally show these allegations are untrue. They show him to be horrible and probably unelectable unless a massive wave carries him over the top. Needless baggage with plenty of good alternatives.

Eh, I mean who though? Bartos? Who feels like the Gary Black of this race? The PA GOP senate bench is horrific to say the least, Parnell included

Plenty of candidates are not currently running because the race seemed to be solidifying behind Parnell. There is a deep bench of U.S. and State Representatives. Or I could see one of the lagging Governor candidates, McSwain or Mastriano, jumping in here once Barletta sews up that primary. Still early days.

This is definitely true, that said I do not think Mastriano is a strong GE candidate

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Do y'all feel that Dr. New Jersey is still going to win the GOP primary?

Given the lack of quality polling I have no idea, I do not think he is in anyway a lock-in tho.

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I know Lamb is a "fake moderate" but he would have been able to contrast himself from someone like Barnette as a moderate vs radical. Nominating Fetterman takes that ability away from the Dems, because Fetterman on the issues is very similar to Bernie Sanders. While Barnette also comes off as very right wing, Republicans can afford to get more leeway with picking their nominee because of the national environment.

These are basically my exact thoughts, it is going to hard for Fetterman to play the “Barnette is an extremist” card when he’s going to be pummeled with ads calling him a socialist, which are at least somewhat true in reality.

Why I think Barnette is stronger than Oz/McCormick, despite any baggage of her being "extreme": It's becoming clear that Fetterman is going to try and run a somewhat populist localized campaign, much like Tim Ryan. He can easily attack Oz and McCormick as out of touch, out of state, rich guys who don't care about working people and who are insincere with their political flip-flopping. Can't really do that with Barnette.

Ultimately, none of this will actually matter, the types of voters who would be swayed by that messaging are gone for Democrats now and on the other hand, Fetterman actually could be uniquely weak in some of the suburban areas that Democrats need to do well in to win in Pennsylvania (not that any of this will actually matter in a year as red as this one).

Its not going to be hard to label her at all if the GOP ticket is her and Mastriano

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Just got home but surprised by both McCormick and Barnette, but this goes to show the value of money in the bank on election day. McCormick had a professional operation in place and Barnette didn't. It's not everything, but it helps in a close race.

Anyway, both races remain Lean R for me.

RGA won't even commit to spending for Mastriano or against Shapiro, making the Gubernatorial election Lean D for now. And that frees up more PADP resources in the form of people power for Fetterman, so the Senate election between Fetterman and Oz should remain a tossup.

I'm going to laugh so hard when this take (which, the majority of people here agree with) inevitably does not age well. Y'all will never learn.

I live on the border of Mastriano's state senate district and noticed him throughout his so far short political career, please tell me what he has going for him besides the national environment, I'm open to changing my opinion but yeah what makes him a winnable candidate?

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SMP up with ad on puppygate

https://twitter.com/joshkraushaar/status/1579956337332875265?s=46&t=hkw_m16l...

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Can anyone actually view the ad though? The link is not working for me.

I watched it, took a few tries, its a brutal ad.