Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/brianamos/status/1554629624289705986?s=21&t=343sr1SoELpi...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If these results hold and No does end up winning by a landslide, the GOP seriously needs to rethink their strategy on abortion for the midterms.

[Person Man]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

Those were bans instead of constitutional carve outs.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mappingfl/status/1554630702078906368?s=21&t=343sr1SoELpi...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Reno County has a double digit "No" lead with 33% in...this is a county that Trump won by 34 points and Kobach won by 5 points.

[Skill and Chance]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

Those were bans instead of constitutional carve outs.

Yes, this is fundamentally a more moderate pro-life referendum than those personhood votes.  This referendum is the equivalent of Dobbs at the state level if it passes.  It doesn't put an abortion ban in the constitution.    

[Skill and Chance]

Everyone keep in mind that if this is all EV, it could still get very close.  Remember the Oklahoma Medicaid Expansion referendum?

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/mappingfl/status/1554630702078906368?s=21&t=343sr1SoELpi...

DDHQ says its only 23% in.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mappingfl/status/1554630702078906368?s=21&t=343sr1SoELpi...

DDHQ says its only 23% in.

Straight from the state.
https://twitter.com/bruneelections/status/1554630998196948998?s=21&t=343sr1S...

[Tintrlvr]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

I'll take 50.1% No. Even that would be seen in the media as a devastating rejection of Dobbs regardless of how grounded in history that interpretation would be.

[Devils30]

88-12 No in Lawrence, this is a bloodbath for the Christian right.

[Nyvin]

Everyone keep in mind that if this is all EV, it could still get very close.  Remember the Oklahoma Medicaid Expansion referendum?

But there's also nothing in from Johnson, Douglas, or Sedgwick, which No should do pretty good in.

[Skill and Chance]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

I'll take 50.1% No. Even that would be seen in the media as a devastating rejection of Dobbs regardless of how grounded in history that interpretation would be.

IDK Kansas has always been considerably less pro-life than top line Republican, so it isn't the best example.  A devastating rejection of Dobbs would be if Kentucky rejects its abortion amendment in November.  However, it would still be significant for the Kansas pro-life referendum to underperform Trump that badly.

[Tintrlvr]

Everyone keep in mind that if this is all EV, it could still get very close.  Remember the Oklahoma Medicaid Expansion referendum?

But there's also nothing in from Johnson, Douglas, or Sedgwick, which No should do pretty good in.

Douglas is reporting, 88% No.

[Tintrlvr]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

I'll take 50.1% No. Even that would be seen in the media as a devastating rejection of Dobbs regardless of how grounded in history that interpretation would be.

IDK Kansas has always been considerably less pro-life than top line Republican, so it isn't the best example.  A devastating rejection of Dobbs would be if Kentucky rejects its abortion amendment in November.  However, it would still be significant for the Kansas pro-life referendum to underperform Trump that badly.

I agree with you again from a political wonk perspective, but not from a media narrative perspective, which is more important.

[Person Man]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

I'll take 50.1% No. Even that would be seen in the media as a devastating rejection of Dobbs regardless of how grounded in history that interpretation would be.

IDK Kansas has always been considerably less pro-life than top line Republican, so it isn't the best example.  A devastating rejection of Dobbs would be if Kentucky rejects its abortion amendment in November.  However, it would still be significant for the Kansas pro-life referendum to underperform Trump that badly.

I agree with you again from a political wonk perspective, but not from a media narrative perspective, which is more important.

And perception is reality.

[Devils30]

Everyone keep in mind that if this is all EV, it could still get very close.  Remember the Oklahoma Medicaid Expansion referendum?

But there's also nothing in from Johnson, Douglas, or Sedgwick, which No should do pretty good in.

It's going to tighten considerably. It can tighten a ton and No still gets a comfortable win.

[If my soul was made of stone]

[Person Man]

Consequences are a bitch.

[politicallefty]

Sedgwick 62% NO (49% reporting)

[Crumpets]

Current results Atlas-style:

[Person Man]

Sedgwick 62% NO (49% reporting)

When it’s done, that would be a decent barometer.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1554636579049771009?s=20&t=9JkrBQOvdV_...

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1554636579049771009?s=20&t=9JkrBQOvdV_...

It won’t be that close if that’s true.

[Tintrlvr]

Ellis County (Hays) is the first county to finish reporting. Hays is a very small city in rural west Kansas, definitely should vote more like rural counties than urban counties but not completely rural. It does have a small state college that shouldn't matter very much to the result overall. Anyway, it was 70-27 Trump in 2020, and the final result tonight is 56-44 Yes, i.e., a swing of 15.5 points. That would portend about a 40-60 victory for No statewide on a universal swing. This seems over now, only question is how large the margin for No ends up being.