2012 NDP leadership convention

[MaxQue]

Two things.

1. Topp answered to Dewar by saying than he is at 28% in his own internals. Dewar answered they aren't scientific.

2. La Presse is saying than NDP insiders are saying than Ashton will withdraw soon and endorse Mulcair.

[RogueBeaver]

Dewar is really losing it. First attacking Nash from the left on healthcare, now saying Mulcair and possibly Cullen are capable of committing ideological treason. Forgive me for thinking he was in the NDP's ideological middle.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/02/14/dewar%E2%80%99s-camp-suggests-unnamed-leadership-contenders-could-%E2%80%98dishonour%E2%80%99/29611

[DL]

Impossible to gauge, but my best guess is that Mulcair would be in trouble if he doesn't win on the first ballot.

Mulcair is in trouble if he doesn't LEAD on the first ballot - but i think there is ZERO chance of him winning outright on the first ballot. Getting over 50% of the vote in a competitive 7 person race is almost impossible. I think he only has to lead and be over 30% on the first count to be unstoppable

[lilTommy]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/topp-battles-to-regain-front-runner-status-in-ndp-race/article2338679/

Well people wanted the gloves to come off didn't they?
I agree that Dewars lack of fluency in french is a terrible downside... He should step out of the race.
I do not agree that Mulcair is that much of Liberal centrist threat; not understanding the PQ provincial scene strikes me as odd from Topp (if your a federalist your choices are the PLQ or greens, and if you want to get elected just the PLQ. he fails to note that i can think of two other federal NDPers who are/were PLQ MNAs... Henri-francois Gautrin and Nathalie Rocheford)

Topp will have NO SEAT (and ZERO electoral experience) meaning we run the risk of another Turmel (shes done the best she can and she just counting the days now) situation coming about... two leaders one in the house another out-and-about.
Topp from the get go struck me as being an opportunist... Jack wasn't even buried when he stepped up and took the "annointed-by-jack" monicker, that has always come across as distasteful to me. He should step out of the race too.

It should be a Mulcair-Nash-Cullen-Ashton race, Yes i totally think Topp should drop out before Ashton does
(Singh was a given, hes made his name know and will be a fantastic NS candidate in 2015)

[Hatman 🍁]

Good point. If Topp wins, that means Turmel will be leader for another 6 months at least (if an MP steps aside for Topp), and maybe even longer. Another reason to not vote for him.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, I don't get this whole "Mulcair as ev0l centrist" meme. Anyone even vaguely familiar with his provincial career knows he was very much a left-Liberal. Indeed that's one of the reasons he resigned 6 years ago.

Agreed on Topp. If he won, I'd recommend Peter Julian as parliamentary leader.

[Holmes]

Might as well ask it here. I finally got my NDP card in the mail, and Horwath is on it. So I'm assuming other provinces have their provincial leader on the card as well. So what's on Quebec's card?

[Hatman 🍁]

Might as well ask it here. I finally got my NDP card in the mail, and Horwath is on it. So I'm assuming other provinces have their provincial leader on the card as well. So what's on Quebec's card?

Last time I got a card, there was no one on it. I think each province decides on what to do, or even to have a card in the first place.

[MaxQue]

No idea. Some people have cards, some have not. Depends of which the system was working well in Quebec when you became a member.

[lilTommy]

Might as well ask it here. I finally got my NDP card in the mail, and Horwath is on it. So I'm assuming other provinces have their provincial leader on the card as well. So what's on Quebec's card?

Last time I got a card, there was no one on it. I think each province decides on what to do, or even to have a card in the first place.

Mine is old school, with the old logo... I'd rather a big'ole picture of andrea
Hmmm would it be so bad if all the cards in quebec had pictures of Tommy Douglas and Jack Layton all over them? lol

The NDP is unique in that your a member of the provincial party and that rolls up and creates the federal membership... except in quebec... which is why i always did and still do want a NPDQ but thats another long story eh

[Хahar 🤔]

The NDP in Quebec can't and shouldn't be associated with provincial politics.

[RogueBeaver]

None of the parties are associated with provincial politics- not since Harper's brief fling with Dumont anyways. The last formal organizational link (between the PLQ, or as it was then known, the FLQ) was severed in 1965.

[RogueBeaver]

The poor judgment doesn't help either.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1132655--tim-harper-paul-dewar-et-l-elephant-dans-la-salle

[lilTommy]

... On that note, somehow people don't think Pauls french is that bad?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/dewar-counters-french-flak-with-quebec-caucus-support-in-ndp-race/article2341985/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=Home&utm_content=2341985

- Hélène Laverdière and Hoang Mai (both i would say big names among the PQ MPs) endorse Paul...

Topp WOULD ask an MP from quebec to step aside for him... the last minutes of the interview. Jack never ask anyone to step down...
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Politics/1244504890/ID=2198024357

[RogueBeaver]

He fails the French qualification, period.

Layton didn't have to because the election was a year away. Topp can't be outside for an entire Parliament, that's absurd.

[DL]

If Topp becomes leader, he will not "ask" anyone to resign. I strongly suspect that he already knows an MP who wants "out" and has made the offer to him.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair: Divert some gas tax revenue for transit.

http://www.theprovince.com/news/Confident%2BMulcair%2Bsays%2Bwill%2Btransfer%2Bcent%2Btransit/6179223/story.html

Cullen: Let's raise taxes.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/ndps-cullen-would-make-rich-canadians-corporations-energy-sector-pay-more-taxes-139649573.html

[RogueBeaver]

Everyone scrambling for top-tier status.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-leadership-contenders-scramble-for-top-tier-status/article2344196/

[lilTommy]

Membership numbers are out and they are IMPRESSIVE! to say the least:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/02/21/pol-ndp-membership-numbers.html

http://blogs.canada.com/2012/02/21/ndp-leadership-membership-numbers-rise-across-the-country-with-huge-jump-in-quebec/

FEB 2012              OCTOBER 2011

AB –     10,249              9033
BC –     38,735              30,000
MB –     12056              10,307
NB –     955                    (Not previously reported)
NL –      1030                  200
NS –     3844                  1300
NT/NU/YK – 924         (Not previously reported)
ON –      36,760              22,225
PE –      268                     135
QC –       12,266             1695
SK –      11,264              8929

TOTAL 128,351           83,824

Looks like three tiers of Provinces: ON & BC with 30+ members, but add up to 58% of the membership if my math is right; AB, PQ, MB, SK with 10+ adds up to about 35% of the membership; all the rest which is about 7%

Those are good numbers in Quebec... but i know they were hoping for 15K. Other good news is strong numbers in MB and NS where we are the go'ts AND strong numbers in SK where the party took a beating in last years provincial election.

Thoughts?

[minionofmidas]

Surprised at Alberta numbers.

[RogueBeaver]

What do you guys think about this?

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/20/ndp-leadership-toward-a-topp-mulcair-alliance/

[lilTommy]

Surprised at Alberta numbers.

I'm partially surprised... the Liberal brand in ALTA is horrible, so where else can progressive minded voters go? the NDP having the ONLY opposition MP helps to some degree i think in getting the brand out there. On the prov level, Brian Masson (leader) is the most experienced of all the leaders (they are all less then what 2yrs as leaders?) also the NDP is seen (what i can see) as the only stable and reliable opposition party... the liberals are a mess and wildrose is Reform-in-carnate. I'm hoping that by 2015 this might mean more seat gains ( 3 or 4 more seats maybe!)

[RogueBeaver]

If forced to choose between Nash and Mulcair, where would BC go?

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Mulcair%2Bleadership%2Bfront%2Brunner%2Bmembers%2Bhold%2Bcards/6182285/story.html

Is Topp's view of Mulcair as a potential ideological traitor widespread amongst rank and file Dippers?

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/article/1134802--ndp-leadership-candidate-brian-topp-we-want-to-win-for-a-purpose

[Hatman 🍁]

A lot of members in the territories. Almost as many as all of New Brunswick!

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm impressed by Saskatchewan. The NDP ought to gain a number of seats there.