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DL
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,417
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« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2011, 09:12:34 PM » |
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In which case it's still Mulcair. Comartin is also electable but too old, Julian is too left but will be the left-union candidate in Nash's absence. Dewar's unilingualism rules him out.
I don't you know much about any of these people. Julian is not espcially "left" - I think the main knock against him is that he's a bit of a nerd. I don't know what makes you so sure Nash wouldn't run? and as for Dewar - he is not unilingual - he actually speaks French quite well. Let's not for get that the caucus does not elect the leader it is a one member one vote process. Right now out of about 100,000 NDP members in Canada only about 5,000 are in Quebec - that will undoubtedly rise, but the fact remains that the bulk of NDP members are in Ontario, BC and Manitoba...
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DL
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,417
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« Reply #4 on: August 25, 2011, 10:50:52 PM » |
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Did anyone outside of Toronto know who Jack was in 2003? Not many. too young.
More than you might think. When Layton decided to run for NDP leader in 2002 - he had run for mayor of Toronto, he had served a term a President of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (giving him a range of contacts across the country) he had already written a couple of books and he was a household name in Toronto (which whether you like it or not is the nerve centre of the country). Its true that Ducasse impressed people with a nice speech at the convention in 2003 - but after that he more or less sank without a trace and hasn't done much to maintain a profile. Also, in the 2002/2003 NDP leadership contest, the party only had 13 MPs and was near death - so it was clear that the party could not limit itself to a sitting MP and needed to do something drastic. Now the NDP has 102 MPs and vast amount of talent.
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DL
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,417
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« Reply #19 on: September 12, 2011, 09:47:23 AM » |
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To give you an idea, there was 72,000 members in PQ in 2004, 155,000 in 2005 and 74,000 in 2006. (source:quebecpolitique.com). There was a leadership race in 2005.
I'd say "double" is a rough estimate to what happens to the membership numbers during a leader's campaign. [/quote] In the case of the NDP in Quebec, I think membership will far more than double over the next six months. Even if there were no leadership race at all with 59 MPs all creating riding associations and assembling lists of contacts - the # of NDP members would probably go from 1,750 to about 10,000 (at least) no matter what. Now with a leadership contest it may go much higher than that.
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