New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

At what time exit polls will be released? 8 PM I'm right?

In 2016, initial exit poll numbers starting trickling in at around 7:13 PM. I would assume, like Iowa, they get adjusted based on first & final wave of poll closures.


And speaking of which, I went back to CNN's 2012/2016 coverage to get an idea of when precinct updates should be coming. Hopefully, this will be much handier than when I did this for Iowa.

The three winners were declared as soon as all polls closed. Bernie better hope for a projection in the 30-60 minutes or we'll probably be waiting until the morning for a winner.

2016 was pretty uniform in D/R reporting, so look at those a little loosely. I just went by when either party arrived to that percentage. And in both years, it didn't reach 99% for around 8-12 hours after midnight


Eastern time

2016
  8:00     All Polls close
  8:04     10% precincts in
  8:57     20% precincts in
  9:23     30% precincts in
  9:52     40% precincts in
10:12     50% precincts in
10:28     60% precincts in
10:50     70% precincts in
11:32     80% precincts in
12:30     90% precincts in

2012
  7:54     10% precincts in
  8:00     All Polls close
  8:23     Second/third place projections
  8:30     20% precincts in
  8:53     30% precincts in
  9:10     40% precincts in
  9:27     50% precincts in
  9:51     60% precincts in
10:15     70% precincts in
10:56     80% precincts in
11:37     90% precincts in

[T'Chenka]

Done work at 10PM Eastern, can't wait to turn on my phone and see who won.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Morning, y'all!

Just for reference, here's a quick guide for the last two (2008, 2016) Democratic Primaries in New Hampshire.

2016:

Democratic Primary



Bernie Sanders: 152,193 votes (60.14%) -- 15.0 delegates
Hilllary Clinton: 95,355 votes (37.68%) -- 9.0 delegates
Other:  4,514 votes (2.15%) -- 0.0 delegates

Total votes:  252,062

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2008:

Democratic Primary



Hillary Clinton: 112,404 votes (39.1%) -- 9.0 delegates
Barack Obama: 104,815 votes (36.5%) -- 9.0 delegates
John Edwards:  48,699 votes (16.9%) -- 4.0 delegates
Other: 19,609 votes (7.2%) -- 0.0 delegates


Total votes:  287,527

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And for further reference, here are the turnout totals from the GOP Primaries in 2016, 2012, and 2008:  

2016 New Hampshire Republican Primary: 285,916

2012 New Hampshire Republican Primary: 248,475

2008 New Hampshire Republican Primary: 234,851

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/MichaelCBender/status/1227024346805391361

Biden? 

[StateBoiler]

Weld at this point has 13.5%, that qualified for delegates!

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/MichaelCBender/status/1227024346805391361

Biden? 

Maybe one good thing that will come out of this is Democrats will recognize how idiotic open primaries are.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/MichaelCBender/status/1227024346805391361

Biden? 

Except they can’t cause Republicans can’t vote in the Dem primary.

[Mr. Illini]

Against all common sense and historical knowledge, I am going to over-analyze the Dixville Notch results.

Bloomberg probably could've done well if he had gotten early enough to actually get his name on the ballot. He fits the common sense, independent New England voter well.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/MichaelCBender/status/1227024346805391361

Biden? 

Except they can’t cause Republicans can’t vote in the Dem primary.

Sure they can. They are "independents", and since this is a president-only vote, they can as an independent vote in the Republican primary for all the other races on the NH ballot later in the year.

[Walmart_shopper]

I know these votes don't mean anything but...I think it's a bit of a surprise that Klobuchar did this well in these early precincts. It makes sense because she does connect with the average American, but these Northern areas were supposed to be heavy Sanders, or at least people were saying. The fact that Bernie got so few votes is kind of surprising, too. Will it hold? Who knows. But why not analyze what we have, right?

In 2016 the southwest corner of the state was strongest for Bernie. The weakest was the Manchester-Nashua-Concord population bubble that are now Boston suburbs.

[kelestian]

https://twitter.com/MichaelCBender/status/1227024346805391361

Biden? 

But who is the weakest? In reality and in Trump's head? Surely not Bernie. Maybe Warren?

[Grassroots]

Republican results so far:



Donald Trump
–   81.6%   31

Bill Weld
–   13.2%   5

Mary Maxwell
–   2.6%   1

Bob Ely
–   0%   0

Eric Merrill
–   0%   0

Joe Walsh
–   0%   0

Juan Payne
–   0%   0

Larry Horn
–   0%   0

Matthew Matern
–   0%   0

President Boddie
–   0%   0

Rick Kraft
–   0%   0

Robert Ardini
–   0%   0

Rocky De La Fuente
–   0%   0

Star Locke
–   0%   0

Stephen Comley
–   0%   0

William Murphy
–   0%   0

Zoltan Istvan
–   0%   0
Other candidates
–   2.6%   1

Lmao

[GeorgiaModerate]

Love to read analysis based on 30 early votes out of an expected 250k or so.

This is definitely the place to come for it.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Why didn't Trump encourage his supporters to vote for him as a write-in instead? New Hampshire's pretty lax on write-ins, correct? I wonder how Write-in Trump will do. Wonder if he'll beat Bennet

[Oryxslayer]

At what time exit polls will be released? 8 PM I'm right?

In 2016, initial exit poll numbers starting trickling in at around 7:13 PM. I would assume, like Iowa, they get adjusted based on first & final wave of poll closures.


And speaking of which, I went back to CNN's 2012/2016 coverage to get an idea of when precinct updates should be coming. Hopefully, this will be much handier than when I did this for Iowa.

The three winners were declared as soon as all polls closed. Bernie better hope for a projection in the 30-60 minutes or we'll probably be waiting until the morning for a winner.

2016 was pretty uniform in D/R reporting, so look at those a little loosely. I just went by when either party arrived to that percentage. And in both years, it didn't reach 99% for around 8-12 hours after midnight


Eastern time

2016
  8:00     All Polls close
  8:04     10% precincts in
  8:57     20% precincts in
  9:23     30% precincts in
  9:52     40% precincts in
10:12     50% precincts in
10:28     60% precincts in
10:50     70% precincts in
11:32     80% precincts in
12:30     90% precincts in

2012
  7:54     10% precincts in
  8:00     All Polls close
  8:23     Second/third place projections
  8:30     20% precincts in
  8:53     30% precincts in
  9:10     40% precincts in
  9:27     50% precincts in
  9:51     60% precincts in
10:15     70% precincts in
10:56     80% precincts in
11:37     90% precincts in

This is because some towns, like mirror versions of Dixvile Notch, do not report until the day after. Unless the race once again ends up incredibly close, these towns will not matter in the medias quest to declare a winner.

[KaiserDave]

Bennet will surprise

[brucejoel99]

I have no idea what to expect of the vote today except to say that I'm feeling some Klobmentum in the air.

[2016]

You all got it wrong:
Preliminary Exit Polls will be released at 5pm ET.

[Gass3268]

NYT Results Page: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/11/us/elections/results-new-hampshire-primary.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=Navigation

The Needle (is back): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/11/us/elections/results-new-hampshire-live-forecast.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=Navigation

Is there a results page yet from the state? I'm trying to work on some maps that require the full results.

[wbrocks67]

Anecdotal, but interesting nonetheless:

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1227230671313285120

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Merged per request.

Can we not have "predict" threads merged with the main thread for results?  I think if there are numbers posted in this thread, they should be results.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Those assholes know we're going to overreact to the couple of early votes and decided to troll us hard this year.

[atheist4thecause]

https://twitter.com/MichaelCBender/status/1227024346805391361

Biden? 

Maybe one good thing that will come out of this is Democrats will recognize how idiotic open primaries are.

It's a semi-closed primary, although Republicans can register as Democrats because of same day registration. I think it's dangerous for Republicans to vote for their "weakest" candidate because that is an all-or-nothing approach. If that candidate then wins, you have your least favorite candidate. If you vote for who you like the most, then you end up with a reasonable alternative even if the Republican loses.

The implications might not be what Republicans think, either. Republicans can vote for Bernie Sanders thinking he's the weakest because he's the least Republican in their view, and then that can energize the Democratic base like crazy. Then the candidate ill inevitably move towards the middle in the generals and you'll have a real problem on your hand potentially.

Either way, is there any actual evidence any primary has ever been decided in any state because of Republican crossovers? That's a genuine question, btw.

[redjohn]

It's almost Klobbering time

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

here are some demographic maps I made last time around: