Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Now an invasion still might be worth it if 1) you think a West-aligned Ukraine is a truly existential threat to Russian security,...

That's the thing though, its not is it. And they're not really all that "West-aligned" in any event.

You have to look at this from the point of view of the Kremlin leadership and whatever their goals are if you wish to understand Russian decisionmaking. You can't look at it from your own personal point of view and hope to understand what is going to happen, even if you think the Russians are wrongheaded.

Russians post-Soviet era have the impression of once they were defeated, NATO is yet still trying to practice encirclement. Yeltsin even complained about NATO moving eastward. NATO is from the viewpoint of the Russians an existential threat because NATO is first and foremost an anti-Russian defense conglomeration. There's no civilian purpose to NATO's existence. So if Ukraine joins NATO, then that's another border point Russia has to defend against. It's why North Korea will probably never just be allowed to join with South Korea and maybe even why the state continues to exist: the Chinese are not going to accept a border with a U.S. ally, North Korea's a buffer. Right now in Donbass the Russians have a de facto buffer.

Or, why US never have accepted Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1468620348941811712?t=-Yn7k3r_Th4G6TuiqGHXfA&a...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1468654556607397889?s=20

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1468620348941811712?t=-Yn7k3r_Th4G6TuiqGHXfA&a...

"The idea that the United States is going to unilaterally use force to confront Russia invading Ukraine is not in the cards right now"

This is answering a question no one is asking. Unilateral means we're going it alone. Well, the event of us using force would (I hope) be at Ukrainian invitation to help them defend their country, which means it would automatically not be unilateral.

"Adds that U.S. involvement in Ukraine will depend on what other NATO countries are doing."

Based on historical practice, they'll all sit around the table and wait to find out what we're doing.

My educated guess is Biden is doing nothing that the other main countries in NATO won't do. He's looking for others to share responsibility in the decision and burden.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1468657675097579522

Joe Biden makes diplomatic concession to Russia with Nato talks plan
US president wants allies to discuss Moscow’s ‘concerns’ in attempt to prevent invasion of Ukraine

Joe Biden has made a significant diplomatic concession to Moscow designed to prevent an invasion of Ukraine, signalling he wants to convene meetings between Nato allies and Russia to discuss Vladimir Putin’s grievances with the transatlantic security pact.

Speaking on Wednesday, a day after he held a bilateral call with Russia’s leader, the US president said he hoped to announce high-level talks by Friday “to discuss the future of Russia’s concerns relative to Nato writ large”.

The talks would explore “whether or not we can work out any accommodation as it relates to bringing down the temperature along the eastern front”, Biden added.

The US president said he hoped the participants would include not just Washington and Moscow but also “at least four of our major Nato allies”, although he declined to name the specific countries.

Moscow wants Nato to commit to halting any eastward expansion and to refrain from deploying troops and equipment that could be used to attack Russia from neighbouring countries.

But Biden’s reference to finding a potential “accommodation” with Moscow in eastern Europe will startle many eastern Nato members and US allies, who fear Putin is using the threat of military force to win concessions on the US security presence in Europe.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1468620348941811712?t=-Yn7k3r_Th4G6TuiqGHXfA&a...

"The idea that the United States is going to unilaterally use force to confront Russia invading Ukraine is not in the cards right now"

This is answering a question no one is asking. Unilateral means we're going it alone. Well, the event of us using force would (I hope) be at Ukrainian invitation to help them defend their country, which means it would automatically not be unilateral.

"Adds that U.S. involvement in Ukraine will depend on what other NATO countries are doing."

Based on historical practice, they'll all sit around the table and wait to find out what we're doing.

My educated guess is Biden is doing nothing that the other main countries in NATO won't do. He's looking for others to share responsibility in the decision and burden.

Which is what he should do. The values that America represents will outlive America and there will always be adversaries to those ideas. It's best that we have a way to preserve continuity so we don't live in a world totally devoid of our values or where America is the sole defender of them.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1468620348941811712?t=-Yn7k3r_Th4G6TuiqGHXfA&a...

"The idea that the United States is going to unilaterally use force to confront Russia invading Ukraine is not in the cards right now"

This is answering a question no one is asking. Unilateral means we're going it alone. Well, the event of us using force would (I hope) be at Ukrainian invitation to help them defend their country, which means it would automatically not be unilateral.

"Adds that U.S. involvement in Ukraine will depend on what other NATO countries are doing."

Based on historical practice, they'll all sit around the table and wait to find out what we're doing.

My educated guess is Biden is doing nothing that the other main countries in NATO won't do. He's looking for others to share responsibility in the decision and burden.

Which is what he should do. The values that America represents will outlive America and there will always be adversaries to those ideas. It's best that we have a way to preserve continuity so we don't live in a world totally devoid of our values or where America is the sole defender of them.

The problem is this is NATO where remove the U.S. from the room and no one remaining will step up.

I don't see the European countries doing anything of material value (the threat of financial sanctions in the aftermath of Russia doing something is not an item of material value), which means if Biden is wanting to share responsibility and burden for the decision (due to he took all the flack for Afghanistan, deserved or not), NATO will do nothing of material value.

If you're Macron and you have an ultimate goal of an EU defense structure instead of a NATO one, a punt here could be enough to piss off the eastern Europeans and may help you reach that goal.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1469309773711560709?t=FPfzFapgLdPCMMwLmWrSew&...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1469305679773147136?t=MY4zcUwUTOJZsRtKRZFxV...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1469342612817600512?t=UA1I_WQOQDljMF7UK...

[KaiserDave]

BigSerg’s Russian chauvinism is tired, predictable, boring, and idiotic.

[BigSerg]

Sounds like Ukraine begging for mercy now. Pathetic

https://twitter.com/TommyLundn/status/1469377622316572680?t=47Qhejh470GZOH7jkLfl...

[KaiserDave]

Thank you proving my point!

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1469486257201897473?s=20

[KaiserDave]

“ A source familiar with the matter, however, said there are a number of other options on the table for further assistance to Ukraine, including a much larger package of aid that would be approved in the event of further incursion by Russia.”

Literally read you silly silly man

[America Needs R'hllor]

BigSerg’s Russian chauvinism is tired, predictable, boring, and idiotic.

Maybe instead of shilling for Putin bullying his neighbors and making his country the most despised in the continent anytime he's facing some crisis caused by his government's poor handling of domestic affairs, Russia fans should worry about why the glorious, strong Russian people won't take the covid vaccine and are right now suffering tens of thousands of deaths a month as a consequence!

[Omega21]

BigSerg’s Russian chauvinism is tired, predictable, boring, and idiotic.

Maybe instead of shilling for Putin bullying his neighbors and making his country the most despised in the continent anytime he's facing some crisis caused by his government's poor handling of domestic affairs, Russia fans should worry about why the glorious, strong Russian people won't take the covid vaccine and are right now suffering tens of thousands of deaths a month as a consequence!

Similar to the Balkans, younger Russians probably just don't care about Corona.

The <40 age group is aware their risks are low (barring chronic illness or obesity), so the fastest way to incite them to protest would be to restrict their freedom of movement.

The same thing happened in Serbia in 2020. Vucic announces lockdown > Tens of thousands of young men start protesting and even storm the Parliament > Tomorrow the Corona commission says the "situation has changed" and no lockdown is necessary.

To this day, the only measure active is a Test/Vax/Natural Immunity mandate in Hospitality after 20:00, & guess what? The wave already passed and cases are plummeting back to August levels.

As said previously on another thread:

Young people there are generally brasher and less scared about such things. While you might have luck convincing a 20-year-old German to fear a virus with a 0.1-0.2% chance of death (for their age group), you won't have such luck in the countries such as these.

[It’s so Joever]

BigSerg’s Russian chauvinism is tired, predictable, boring, and idiotic.

Maybe instead of shilling for Putin bullying his neighbors and making his country the most despised in the continent anytime he's facing some crisis caused by his government's poor handling of domestic affairs, Russia fans should worry about why the glorious, strong Russian people won't take the covid vaccine and are right now suffering tens of thousands of deaths a month as a consequence!

Similar to the Balkans, younger Russians probably just don't care about Corona.

The <40 age group is aware their risks are low (barring chronic illness or obesity), so the fastest way to incite them to protest would be to restrict their freedom of movement.

The same thing happened in Serbia in 2020. Vucic announces lockdown > Tens of thousands of young men start protesting and even storm the Parliament > Tomorrow the Corona commission says the "situation has changed" and no lockdown is necessary.

To this day, the only measure active is a Test/Vax/Natural Immunity mandate in Hospitality after 20:00, & guess what? The wave already passed and cases are plummeting back to August levels.

As said previously on another thread:

Young people there are generally brasher and less scared about such things. While you might have luck convincing a 20-year-old German to fear a virus with a 0.1-0.2% chance of death (for their age group), you won't have such luck in the countries such as these.

Well you are correct that toxic masculinity in a rapidly changing world is a serious problem in many places.

[Omega21]

BigSerg’s Russian chauvinism is tired, predictable, boring, and idiotic.

Maybe instead of shilling for Putin bullying his neighbors and making his country the most despised in the continent anytime he's facing some crisis caused by his government's poor handling of domestic affairs, Russia fans should worry about why the glorious, strong Russian people won't take the covid vaccine and are right now suffering tens of thousands of deaths a month as a consequence!

Similar to the Balkans, younger Russians probably just don't care about Corona.

The <40 age group is aware their risks are low (barring chronic illness or obesity), so the fastest way to incite them to protest would be to restrict their freedom of movement.

The same thing happened in Serbia in 2020. Vucic announces lockdown > Tens of thousands of young men start protesting and even storm the Parliament > Tomorrow the Corona commission says the "situation has changed" and no lockdown is necessary.

To this day, the only measure active is a Test/Vax/Natural Immunity mandate in Hospitality after 20:00, & guess what? The wave already passed and cases are plummeting back to August levels.

As said previously on another thread:

Young people there are generally brasher and less scared about such things. While you might have luck convincing a 20-year-old German to fear a virus with a 0.1-0.2% chance of death (for their age group), you won't have such luck in the countries such as these.

Well you are correct that toxic masculinity in a rapidly changing world is a serious problem in many places.

I don't spend enough time in woke Twitter bubbles to fully comprehend what that means.

[Good Habit]

Well you are correct that toxic masculinity in a rapidly changing world is a serious problem in many places.

I don't spend enough time in woke Twitter bubbles to fully comprehend what that means.

Well, you don't need to spend time in woke bubbles.... try to imagine that 0.1 % risk of death would be acceptable - say -for airtravel - this would mean that 5 - 10 civilan airliners would crash EVERY DAY - and that the likely expectation of survival for an airline crew should not exceed 4 years of service...

While similar death rates happen in some "fields of occupation" - like military service in wartimes  - this would be a tipical example of "masculinity" - and war is almoust certainly "toxic"..

[Omega21]

Well you are correct that toxic masculinity in a rapidly changing world is a serious problem in many places.

I don't spend enough time in woke Twitter bubbles to fully comprehend what that means.

Well, you don't need to spend time in woke bubbles.... try to imagine that 0.1 % risk of death would be acceptable - say -for airtravel - this would mean that 5 - 10 civilan airliners would crash EVERY DAY - and that the likely expectation of survival for an airline crew should not exceed 4 years of service...

While similar death rates happen in some "fields of occupation" - like military service in wartimes  - this would be a tipical example of "masculinity" - and war is almoust certainly "toxic"..

CDC: Deaths 18-29 years old in 2020/21

Covid: 4,700
All other Causes: 122,000

Covid caused an increase of death by approximately 2,6%.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

So no, 2,6% more deaths than usual is not tragic or anything to fear.

Don't get me wrong, I got vaccinated because, well, why not? The cost/benefit is clearly positive IMO. But this does not mean that Covid is scary for young, healthy people.

Also, I totally understand what you mean, but if you dig a bit you will find that the statistics for someone getting cancer up to 25 or dying from X cause are not as good as you would hope. So the CDC numbers above should help clear up just how more likely people are to die of something else.

[KaiserDave]

Big Serg’s new signature indicates why nobody should pay his “posts” the slightest bit of mind. Very pathetic stuff!

[BigSerg]

Across the occupied territories of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, 235 units of military equipment manned by Russia’s armed formations were have been deployed in violation of the Minsk agreements

That’s according to the Joint Forces Operation HQ press service, Ukrinform reports.

"OSCE SMM observers have recorded 235 units of military hardware manned by the Russian armed formations in the temporarily occupied territory, deployed in violation of the Minsk agreements," the statement said.

Thus, OSCE monitors found in various areas of the temporarily occupied territories a number of military hardware units deployed in violation of the withdrawal lines and located outside the designated arms storage areas.

This is about BM-21 Grad MLR systems, SAU 2S1 self-propelled artillery, howitzers, mortars, guns, as well as T-64 and T-72 main battle tanks. In addition, four armored personnel carriers were spotted in the city of Luhansk, moving in convoy.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/3367151-russians-deploying-heavy-military-hardware-in-donbas-in-breach-of-minsk-agreements-jfo-command.html

[KaiserDave]

T-64s and T-72s! BigSerg should read his news clippings before posting them. The Russians look like quite a Paper Tiger!

[BigSerg]

T-64s and T-72s! BigSerg should read his news clippings before posting them idiotically. The Russians look like quite a Paper Tiger!

Can you stop trolling? It's annoying to see "This user is currently ignored" in my thread. Thanks