NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[2016]

https://twitter.com/juliegraceb/status/1329920656385957888?s=20

I still think retiring Congressman George Holding would be the better option.

Anyways Burr was a Congressman before he ran for Senate in 2004 defeating Erskine Bowles.

Strong chance North Carolina will have another former Congressman moving into the Senate.

[2016]

Dems only need a slim Majority to pass DC and PR statehood would do fine in a 51/49 Senate.

D. C. Statehood will never ever get passed. Give it up! You have Sinema & Manchin to deal with.

Puerto Rico I can see being passed some Day down the Road after divisive Nancy Pelosi finally leaves Congress.

[2016]

Former Mayor of Charlotte & former North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory expected to launch Senate Bid this week
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/12/former-north-carolina-governor-senate-run-480960
This is OVAH for Democrats before it begins. Jeff Jackson isn't going to beat McCrory in a Biden Midterm.

[2016]

Former Mayor of Charlotte & former North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory expected to launch Senate Bid this week
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/12/former-north-carolina-governor-senate-run-480960
This is OVAH for Democrats before it begins. Jeff Jackson isn't going to beat McCrory in a Biden Midterm.

I mean, McCrory managed to lose as an incumbent even as Trump carried the state by 3 points. I agree this is a lean R race, but McCrory hardly seems like the strongest candidate.

True but State Senator Jeff Jackson is no Roy Cooper.
Former decreased Senator Kay Hagan had argueably the best Midterm Organization in a lifetime in 2014 yet she still lost to current Senator Thom Tillis.

Democrats would need either to coax Cooper into the Race or they need a Wave Midterm Election to win NC in a Non-Presidential Year. The Race starts as Lean R bordering Likely R.
McCrorys Entrance also means that Lara Trump most likely won't run.

Lara Trump is IMO the only Candidate Jeff Jackson could actually beat.

[2016]

We already know that Jackson isn't Cooper with Covid cases rising I would edit my earlier prediction D's are poised to win WI, PA and NH and Rs will pick up GA for wave insurance

They won't poll the state, since Biden honeymoon is over, he not at 60%, the Ds would have released a poll by now

But, if we have a boom Economy, there will be a blue Wave

EVEN with a boom Economy there won't be a blue Wave. A Midterm Wave favouring the Party with an Incumbent President has never happened and it won't happen.

Democrats won't win Wisconsin either. They had a D+8 Wave in 2018 and Evers barely beat Scott Walker by some 30K Votes.

So what are you smoking here! The only Republican Seat where Democrats actually start as Favourites is in PA!

[2016]

We already know that Jackson isn't Cooper with Covid cases rising I would edit my earlier prediction D's are poised to win WI, PA and NH and Rs will pick up GA for wave insurance

They won't poll the state, since Biden honeymoon is over, he not at 60%, the Ds would have released a poll by now

But, if we have a boom Economy, there will be a blue Wave

EVEN with a boom Economy there won't be a blue Wave. A Midterm Wave favouring the Party with an Incumbent President has never happened and it won't happen.

Democrats won't win Wisconsin either. They had a D+8 Wave in 2018 and Evers barely beat Scott Walker by some 30K Votes.

So what are you smoking here! The only Republican Seat where Democrats actually start as Favourites is in PA!

1998 and 2002?

I don’t see why it’s impossible for 2022 to be a good year for dems. Dems are passing party line bills and can take credit for the economic recovery and bash R’s over the head for voting against it. And I’m saying this as someone who might be a 2020 D > 2022 R voter.

1998 Democrats made Bill Clintons Impeachment a huge Issue. I think it was one of the reasons why they gained Seats in the Senate.
2002 Republicans gained Seats because of 9/11.

Democrats would a similar Event to 9/11 to make gains. I am pretty confident that one Chamber will flip.

[2016]

We already know that Jackson isn't Cooper with Covid cases rising I would edit my earlier prediction D's are poised to win WI, PA and NH and Rs will pick up GA for wave insurance

They won't poll the state, since Biden honeymoon is over, he not at 60%, the Ds would have released a poll by now

But, if we have a boom Economy, there will be a blue Wave

EVEN with a boom Economy there won't be a blue Wave. A Midterm Wave favouring the Party with an Incumbent President has never happened and it won't happen.

Democrats won't win Wisconsin either. They had a D+8 Wave in 2018 and Evers barely beat Scott Walker by some 30K Votes.

So what are you smoking here! The only Republican Seat where Democrats actually start as Favourites is in PA!

1998 and 2002?

I don’t see why it’s impossible for 2022 to be a good year for dems. Dems are passing party line bills and can take credit for the economic recovery and bash R’s over the head for voting against it. And I’m saying this as someone who might be a 2020 D > 2022 R voter.

1998 Democrats made Bill Clintons Impeachment a huge Issue. I think it was one of the reasons why they gained Seats in the Senate.
2002 Republicans gained Seats because of 9/11.

Democrats would a similar Event to 9/11 to make gains. I am pretty confident that one Chamber will flip.

I feel like the economy massively improving and COVID basically being over are far more relevant to people's lives than a President being impeached. I don't see why 2022 can't be a good midterm for dems.

Not to say that the economy will be amazing by Nov 2022, or that dems will have a good midterm... I just don't see why it's being ruled out as a possibility.

North Carolina though is a very difficult State to get especially in a Midterm. I mean by all accounts Joe Biden & Cal Cunningham should have won their respective Races last year but they didn't. Georgia voting to the left of North Carolina is almost unheard of.

And then the bullsh**t bingo Media already portraying the Republican Party extinct, done, whatever you name it because of the Senate Retirements.

The only Senate Retirement that hurt Republicans was Pat Toomeys. Burr retiring in NC is actually a good thing and so is Blunt in MO. And in OH Republicans have a pretty deep bench they can draw from. The same is the case in WI and potentially IA.

I mean I hear a lot of the crap stuff I've heard after Obama won in 2008.

[2016]

Pat McCrorys YouTube Announcement is even more devastating for Democrats. He isn't even mentioning President Biden, all about VP Kamala Harris who is the most far leftist VP in the History of this Country
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_H6GKNj9Y-0&t=108s

And this is what Republicans should be doing the next 3 years. Go after Harris!

[2016]

Mark Robinson NOT running:

https://twitter.com/jamesarkin/status/1384283689933152256?s=21

If Lara Trump doesn't run, is this just McCroy's nomination to lose?

Walker and (probably) Ted Budd are running as well.

Ted Budd runs because he wants McCrory to win the Primary.

[2016]

McCrory...tell me, how did this turn out for Bredesen, Bullock, Thompson, Strickland, and pretty much every Gov. this decade except Voldemort [and even that was a close one]?

Didn't Bredesen outperform the rest of the Democratic ticket in Tennessee by 10+ points? If McCrory does as well as he did then he'll win by a fine margin.

This. So much this. I don't think McCrory would outperform that much, but he'd still be favored since it's North Carolina in a Biden midterm.

I think so too!

[2016]

McCrory...tell me, how did this turn out for Bredesen, Bullock, Thompson, Strickland, and pretty much every Gov. this decade except Voldemort [and even that was a close one]?

Didn't Bredesen outperform the rest of the Democratic ticket in Tennessee by 10+ points? If McCrory does as well as he did then he'll win by a fine margin.

McCroy lost the state as Trump Won it, he's not popular or fondly remembered.

McCrory lost his Race in 2016 against one of the most popular Individuals in North Carolina in Roy Cooper and only by some 10,000 Votes. Can you imagine how that would look like in a Biden Midterm? Jeff Jackson is no Roy Cooper! And all these threats with Court Packing, New Green Deal, Statehoods left and right is only going to rile up the Republican Base! The Democrats know they are done in Republican-leaning States come 2022 if this continues.

[2016]

Looks like this Voter Registration Drive by Republicans is happening everywhere...even in a State which has a Democratic Governor...
https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1466834601461129220
GOP cut the Voter Registration Deficit in NC by almost 80K. And these are New Voters who a nearly certain to vote in next years Midterms.

[2016]

We need to see a poll, we haven't seen 1cotton picking poll and users think OH and NC are safe R

No one said that they are Safe R you Troll. Both States are Likely R at this Point which is a Fair Rating!

[2016]

We need to see a poll, we haven't seen 1cotton picking poll and users think OH and NC are safe R

No one said that they are Safe R you Troll. Both States are Likely R at this Point which is a Fair Rating!

Your the one who is a troll thinking that Rs are the Majority party and we won 80/74M the D's are the Majority party not Rs we can win all these seats

It's a 538 Map not half the US map , plenty of D's have endorsed wave insurance like Kenyatta Voter he endorsed every D we can endorse our candidates if they lose its called a campaign

It's not a D or R yr until all the votes are counted, until then wait to see if it's an R wave not before Nov 22nd. Polls are snapshots in time

You are wrong! The Overall Political Climate isn't going to change over the next year.

There were only 2 Midterm Elections in the past 30 Years where the Party who occupied the White House actually gained Seats in both Chambers of Congress. In 1998 Voters deemed that Republicans went too far on the Clinton Impeachment hence Republicans lost Seats and Democrats gained Seats AND in 2002 where National Security were front and Center, GWB had an over 50 % Job Approval Rating, etc. Republicans gained Seats in the House & Senate.

None of this will happen next year. Democrats will lose Seats.

[2016]

Rep. Mark Walker (R) dropping out of the Senate Race and running for Congress.

[2016]

It's also pretty unlikely that the current NC map stands, so it's not clear if Walker will even have a place to go.

Why do you say it's unlikely? The NC State Supreme Court has already decided to throw out the appeal over redistricting.

[2016]

The NC change makes sense, but there's no way Colorado isn't safe.

Colorado is never SAFE during a Democratic Presidential Midterm Year. True, the State has shifted to the left over the years but it isn't Virginia.

[2016]

Cook has moved this race to Lean R

It's the right thing to do! If you compare Job Approvals Biden is in a much worse Situation to Obama in February 2010.

[2016]

Trump backed Ted Budd is struggling
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/09/trump-budd-north-carolina-struggles-senate-primary-00015472

And to be quite frank: Pat McCrory was always the safer bet to lock down this Senate Race.

[2016]

Trump backed Ted Budd is struggling
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/09/trump-budd-north-carolina-struggles-senate-primary-00015472

And to be quite frank: Pat McCrory was always the safer bet to lock down this Senate Race.

Budd is leading in fund-raising and the polls are essentially tied. Will be interesting if ad buys from Club For Growth can pull Budd ahead.

I'd rather have someone to lock this Race up early and not have to spent up money and Resources in NC. McCrory would lock this up! If Budd or Walker is the Nominee there is always a chance those two would make some inflamatory racist remarks against a Black Female Candidate in Beasley and put this Seat back in play.

I am worried about that!

[2016]

New Survey USA Poll has President Biden at 42 % Approval in the State with 55 % Disapprove of him.
https://www.wral.com/wral-news-poll-55-of-nc-voters-surveyed-disapprove-of-the-job-biden-is-doing/20231321/

There is no way Beasley can win a Senate Race in that State with those kind of Numbers for the President.

[2016]

New Survey USA Poll has President Biden at 42 % Approval in the State with 55 % Disapprove of him.
https://www.wral.com/wral-news-poll-55-of-nc-voters-surveyed-disapprove-of-the-job-biden-is-doing/20231321/

There is no way Beasley can win a Senate Race in that State with those kind of Numbers for the President.

Do you know where Trump was at when he net gained seats in 2018/2020 he was at 42% Approvals and he net gained seats both Election and was impeach you only look at Biden Approvals but Trump was at 42% and obviously there not believable because Hassan is up by 15 and Kelly is up by 4

We have a far superior Turnout model than 2010/14 it was Same day voting 82M votes and now we have 125M VBM that's why they need to poll OR, ME, MI, PA and WI we can't know where Approvals are without the big three they refuse to poll, Trump is still campaigning for Rs, Biden isn't campaigning he is on Act blue supporting Tim Ryan to Sen his best Buddy, he is telling everyone we need Ryan in the Senate, Fettetman, Barnes and Kelly, and Valentine, Biden isn't going all out for Beasley and Deming's


We can lose this seat Biden wants Fettetman, Ryan, Kelly and Barnes in the Senate


Beasley is down by Seven and so is Deming's and Ryan, Valentine, Fettetman, Hassan, Barnes can certainly overcome the partisan trend of their states

You are talking complete nonsense here:
Trump had 51 % or more in FL, IN, MO, ND in 2018. Republicans won all 4.
The only two Senate Seat Republicans lost where Trump was at 50+ % was Montana & West Virginia.
Trump had 44-45 % in PA, WI, MI, NV and AZ and Democrats won all of them in 2018.

There will not be 125 Million Americans Voting in November. No way. ZERO Chance because that would exceed 2018 Turnout.

Stop posting crap. 2022 will have lower Turnout compared to 2018.

Republicans leading the crucial Independent Vote by 20+ Points in almost every Senate Battleground State.

[2016]

Republicans have cut the Democratic Registration Edge in North Carolina by 116K from November 2020 to August 27th 2022
https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1565706536416157698

There are more Independents now living in the Tar Heel State than Democrats or Republicans.

[2016]

Democrats are not going to win here in a Midterm where President barely cracks 40 % in the State when it comes to his Job Approval.

I expect this Race to be put away by Republicans in the next couple of weeks.

[2016]

Budd is doing just fine right now considering NC polling.

Tillis basically never led in any of the Major Polling Outfits in his Race against Hagan.