NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The EDay isn't for 5 weeks let's wait but I am not listening to Progressive Moderate whom has AZ, GA and PA Lean R and Cook and Sabato have them Lean D he made a D nut map in 2020 and predicted GA to go R wrong too just like now he is predicting GA wrong

WARNOCK he as been leading 46/41 and if it goes to a runoff it benefits WARNOCK

.every poll has been tied, the last three

Even McConnell said if the Rs win it won't be 54 seats the most is 52 seats AZ and PA aren't gonna go R

[wbrocks67]

Democrats are not going to win here in a Midterm where President barely cracks 40 % in the State when it comes to his Job Approval.

I expect this Race to be put away by Republicans in the next couple of weeks.

We've been over this already, Biden's JA is pretty irrelevant to these contests.

Also, this race should've been put away a month ago. The fact that Republicans have had to spend so much money here and the two are still tied is bad for Budd.

[Schiff for Senate]

Democrats are not going to win here in a Midterm where President barely cracks 40 % in the State when it comes to his Job Approval.

I expect this Race to be put away by Republicans in the next couple of weeks.

We've been over this already, Biden's JA is pretty irrelevant to these contests.

Also, this race should've been put away a month ago. The fact that Republicans have had to spend so much money here and the two are still tied is bad for Budd.

Let the GOP waste its precious money here rather than in actually competitive races like NV and GA and PA. I'm glad they are. I only hope our side isn't doing in the same - focus on the most competitive of races rather than seats that are going to go red (and that we don't even need by any means).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Most users always talk about Biden JA and Trump has the same Approvals even now

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Budd is doing just fine right now considering NC polling.

[2016]

Budd is doing just fine right now considering NC polling.

Tillis basically never led in any of the Major Polling Outfits in his Race against Hagan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

EDay is in five weeks we will see what happens in NC

[ProgressiveModerate]

Budd is doing just fine right now considering NC polling.

Tillis basically never led in any of the Major Polling Outfits in his Race against Hagan.

He still underperformed the partisanship of his state pretty big time given the year and also the fact NC was redder in 2014. Polarization wasn’t as bad in 2014 tbf. In 2020, the poling miss in NC-Sen was far more severe and inexcusable and may have been due to the scandal causing the race to close last minute. Reminder that most polls had Cunningham outperforming Biden iirc, and he regularly hit that 48-50% range.

[If my soul was made of stone]

NC was redder in 2014

[gestures wildly at the GOP gaining row offices in 2016, NC being widely expected to at least swing D in the 2016 Presidential, row office elections swinging R in 2020...)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Budd is doing just fine right now considering NC polling.

Yeah people getting excited about this are going to be very disappointed on election day.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC was redder in 2014

[gestures wildly at the GOP gaining row offices in 2016, NC being widely expected to at least swing D in the 2016 Presidential, row office elections swinging R in 2020...)

Ok I think I misspoke. It’s trended left on the Pres level, but Dems have lost a ton of crossover/residual support downballot on the state level.

A senate race I think of as federal and more closely aligns with Pres results than Gov results; senate races just lag a cycle or so behind in terms of shifts.

Going forwards, I’d suspect Nc will trend left since there seems to be far more upside for Dems as thing stand today and population shifts are particularly horrible for the gop.

[wbrocks67]

Seems odd to me that Cooper is not doing more for Beasley since he's the most popular figure in NC.

[wbrocks67]

This is rather interesting

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1577312808974356480

[Devils30]

This is rather interesting

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1577312808974356480

Only chance for Beasley is matching Biden in the rurals and getting a Dobbs boost out of the Triangle, Greensboro and Charlotte- kind of like the special elections.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is rather interesting

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1577312808974356480

Considering generational turnover and growth patterns this isn’t too surprising. For example, Wake County alone will have ~40k more residents than in 2020. Even if only 20k of them actually vote, that could def have an impact around the margins.

On the flip side, I’d be curious to know how NC’s black belt is holding up cause the depopulation of it has been absolutely brutal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D Pa, AZ, MH
Competitive D GA, NV
Tossup WI, OH, NC
Competitive R IA, IN, FL
Safe R MO

3/8 net gain D seats

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1577355589721653249

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1577355589721653249

The classification Toss-up or at least Tilt Republican may be accurate on these terms, though Budd is still very likely to win. I think the result will be similar to 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1577355589721653249

The classification Toss-up or at least Tilt Republican may be accurate on these terms, though Budd is still very likely to win. I think the result will be similar to 2020.

Lol it's time to vote stop worrying about rankings it's a 303 map with wave insurance of course Rs don't want Ds to win OH, UT, NC and DL that means we will hold the Senate in 24 because they only can win it if we are stuck at 50/52 seats by winning OH, MT and WV

OH, FL, NC and Ut and WI are gonna be characterized as too close to call and our VBM and Early voting exceeds Rs it's called prediction maps not ratings maps that we make, some users think it's a ratings maps but your R nut map gonna be wrong if we win wave insurance

Remember in 2020 the rankings said Ds net seats in H we lost seats and Trump had same Approval as BIDEN

Budd ISNOT VERY LIKELY TO WIN AND NEITHER IS JOHNSON OR LAXALT OR LOMBARDO A 1/3PT LEAD IS NOTHING FOR OUR VBM THAT EXCEEDS RS, Hurricane Ian doesn't touch wI, OH, UT or NC it only touches FL you can argued that Abbott and DeSantis are safe they are up 7 not 2 pts but we still have to vote

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1577355589721653249

The classification Toss-up or at least Tilt Republican may be accurate on these terms, though Budd is still very likely to win. I think the result will be similar to 2020.

DDHQ uses an unusually wide defintion of Toss-up.  IIRC it's anything less than a 65% favorite.

[President Johnson]

FiveThirtyEight has a new piece out on this race:

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1577721286092021761

From the article:

[...]

According to FiveThirtyEight’s midterm election forecast, Republican Rep. Ted Budd currently has around a 2-in-3 chance of beating Democrat Cheri Beasley, a former chief justice of the state Supreme Court, to succeed retiring Sen. Richard Burr.2 That doesn’t mean the race is a done deal: Our polling average shows a much more competitive race, with the most recent surveys showing the two candidates neck and neck.

But the idea that the race could be close shouldn’t comfort Democrats too much. North Carolina is no stranger to close Senate matchups. In fact, in the past three Senate elections, the Democratic candidate has never lost by more than 6 percentage points.

[...]

In the end, we still expect this race to be a close one given past Senate margins in North Carolina, and the fact that Beasley is a fairly strong candidate. That September Emerson College survey found Budd and Beasley practically neck and neck in terms of their favorability numbers: Forty-eight percent of voters in North Carolina had a favorable view of the Republican compared with 46 percent who felt the same way about Beasley. Their unfavorability numbers were about the same, too: Thirty-eight percent viewed Budd unfavorably versus 40 percent for Beasley.

So all hope isn’t lost for Beasley. Since Democrats’ dreams of winning a North Carolina Senate race since 2008 has been a sort of pipe dream, it’s unclear whether she can pull through. But the possibility is still there. “In this state, anything could happen,” Bitzer told me. “So who knows?”

[It’s so Joever]

If there is a D upset, it will be here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If there is a D upset, it will be here.

I still maintain Ohio is more likely than NC.  If we’re treating a Barnes win in Wisconsin as a Democratic upset, then that’s obviously more likely than NC or OH flipping, although right now I predict we narrowly come up short in all three.

[wbrocks67]

Dems seemingly have some faith here - Senate Majority PAC adding another $4M in the next two weeks

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/democrats-ramp-spending-north-carolina-senate-race-rcna51008

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have a good chance in NC, UT, SD, IN and OH and LA

I know users ignored that poll in SD GOV showing Ds within reach of Kristie Noem but Bengs has taken over what Franken spot used to be