NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC might be the only state with as much of a clown car GOP Senate primary as Pennsylvania.

Lol Jackson has been putting out Facebook campaign ads, he will be the Nominee

[2016]

Former Mayor of Charlotte & former North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory expected to launch Senate Bid this week
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/12/former-north-carolina-governor-senate-run-480960
This is OVAH for Democrats before it begins. Jeff Jackson isn't going to beat McCrory in a Biden Midterm.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, this is definitely gonna be a close race between Jackson and McCrory

[Not Me, Us]

Former Mayor of Charlotte & former North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory expected to launch Senate Bid this week
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/12/former-north-carolina-governor-senate-run-480960
This is OVAH for Democrats before it begins. Jeff Jackson isn't going to beat McCrory in a Biden Midterm.

I mean, McCrory managed to lose as an incumbent even as Trump carried the state by 3 points. I agree this is a lean R race, but McCrory hardly seems like the strongest candidate.

[2016]

Former Mayor of Charlotte & former North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory expected to launch Senate Bid this week
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/12/former-north-carolina-governor-senate-run-480960
This is OVAH for Democrats before it begins. Jeff Jackson isn't going to beat McCrory in a Biden Midterm.

I mean, McCrory managed to lose as an incumbent even as Trump carried the state by 3 points. I agree this is a lean R race, but McCrory hardly seems like the strongest candidate.

True but State Senator Jeff Jackson is no Roy Cooper.
Former decreased Senator Kay Hagan had argueably the best Midterm Organization in a lifetime in 2014 yet she still lost to current Senator Thom Tillis.

Democrats would need either to coax Cooper into the Race or they need a Wave Midterm Election to win NC in a Non-Presidential Year. The Race starts as Lean R bordering Likely R.
McCrorys Entrance also means that Lara Trump most likely won't run.

Lara Trump is IMO the only Candidate Jeff Jackson could actually beat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know that Jackson isn't Cooper with Covid cases rising I would edit my earlier prediction D's are poised to win WI, PA and NH and Rs will pick up GA for wave insurance

They won't poll the state, since Biden honeymoon is over, he not at 60%, the Ds would have released a poll by now

But, if we have a boom Economy, there will be a blue Wave

[2016]

We already know that Jackson isn't Cooper with Covid cases rising I would edit my earlier prediction D's are poised to win WI, PA and NH and Rs will pick up GA for wave insurance

They won't poll the state, since Biden honeymoon is over, he not at 60%, the Ds would have released a poll by now

But, if we have a boom Economy, there will be a blue Wave

EVEN with a boom Economy there won't be a blue Wave. A Midterm Wave favouring the Party with an Incumbent President has never happened and it won't happen.

Democrats won't win Wisconsin either. They had a D+8 Wave in 2018 and Evers barely beat Scott Walker by some 30K Votes.

So what are you smoking here! The only Republican Seat where Democrats actually start as Favourites is in PA!

[beesley]

Budd rumored to enter:

I hope Budd and Walker perform similarly, then Walker drops out first and runs for Budd's house seat for the sheer ridiculousness of it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are likely to net PA and WI, and GA and NC are Tossups to give D's 52/48 Senate who knows about the H

WARNOCK is Vulnerable due to Voter suppression laws

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Waiting on Beasley's entrance--do we have an ETA on that?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

We already know that Jackson isn't Cooper with Covid cases rising I would edit my earlier prediction D's are poised to win WI, PA and NH and Rs will pick up GA for wave insurance

They won't poll the state, since Biden honeymoon is over, he not at 60%, the Ds would have released a poll by now

But, if we have a boom Economy, there will be a blue Wave

EVEN with a boom Economy there won't be a blue Wave. A Midterm Wave favouring the Party with an Incumbent President has never happened and it won't happen.

Democrats won't win Wisconsin either. They had a D+8 Wave in 2018 and Evers barely beat Scott Walker by some 30K Votes.

So what are you smoking here! The only Republican Seat where Democrats actually start as Favourites is in PA!

1998 and 2002?

I don’t see why it’s impossible for 2022 to be a good year for dems. Dems are passing party line bills and can take credit for the economic recovery and bash R’s over the head for voting against it. And I’m saying this as someone who might be a 2020 D > 2022 R voter.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know that Jackson isn't Cooper with Covid cases rising I would edit my earlier prediction D's are poised to win WI, PA and NH and Rs will pick up GA for wave insurance

They won't poll the state, since Biden honeymoon is over, he not at 60%, the Ds would have released a poll by now

But, if we have a boom Economy, there will be a blue Wave

EVEN with a boom Economy there won't be a blue Wave. A Midterm Wave favouring the Party with an Incumbent President has never happened and it won't happen.

Democrats won't win Wisconsin either. They had a D+8 Wave in 2018 and Evers barely beat Scott Walker by some 30K Votes.

So what are you smoking here! The only Republican Seat where Democrats actually start as Favourites is in PA!

1998 and 2002?

I don’t see why it’s impossible for 2022 to be a good year for dems. Dems are passing party line bills and can take credit for the economic recovery and bash R’s over the head for voting against it. And I’m saying this as someone who might be a 2020 D > 2022 R voter.

Because D's are giving 300 to people on Unemployment extra and only 18M of us are on Unemployment, not everyone is on Unemployment.  It's not Right and not fair and they're not any Green jobs yet

Look they aren't even polling GA, NC, OH  they only poll WI and NH Senate races, the Cook ratings are off but Ds will win WI, NH, and PA in a Neutral Environment

But, they can also lose the H with 5 vulnerable Ds and TX and FL gaining 6 seats in the H

In a gerrymandering way without HR 1 you know DeSantis and Abbott are gonna gerrymander those into R Districts

I am not saying this on definite terms but Covid and border security needs to get better in order for a blue wave to happen

[2016]

We already know that Jackson isn't Cooper with Covid cases rising I would edit my earlier prediction D's are poised to win WI, PA and NH and Rs will pick up GA for wave insurance

They won't poll the state, since Biden honeymoon is over, he not at 60%, the Ds would have released a poll by now

But, if we have a boom Economy, there will be a blue Wave

EVEN with a boom Economy there won't be a blue Wave. A Midterm Wave favouring the Party with an Incumbent President has never happened and it won't happen.

Democrats won't win Wisconsin either. They had a D+8 Wave in 2018 and Evers barely beat Scott Walker by some 30K Votes.

So what are you smoking here! The only Republican Seat where Democrats actually start as Favourites is in PA!

1998 and 2002?

I don’t see why it’s impossible for 2022 to be a good year for dems. Dems are passing party line bills and can take credit for the economic recovery and bash R’s over the head for voting against it. And I’m saying this as someone who might be a 2020 D > 2022 R voter.

1998 Democrats made Bill Clintons Impeachment a huge Issue. I think it was one of the reasons why they gained Seats in the Senate.
2002 Republicans gained Seats because of 9/11.

Democrats would a similar Event to 9/11 to make gains. I am pretty confident that one Chamber will flip.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

We already know that Jackson isn't Cooper with Covid cases rising I would edit my earlier prediction D's are poised to win WI, PA and NH and Rs will pick up GA for wave insurance

They won't poll the state, since Biden honeymoon is over, he not at 60%, the Ds would have released a poll by now

But, if we have a boom Economy, there will be a blue Wave

EVEN with a boom Economy there won't be a blue Wave. A Midterm Wave favouring the Party with an Incumbent President has never happened and it won't happen.

Democrats won't win Wisconsin either. They had a D+8 Wave in 2018 and Evers barely beat Scott Walker by some 30K Votes.

So what are you smoking here! The only Republican Seat where Democrats actually start as Favourites is in PA!

1998 and 2002?

I don’t see why it’s impossible for 2022 to be a good year for dems. Dems are passing party line bills and can take credit for the economic recovery and bash R’s over the head for voting against it. And I’m saying this as someone who might be a 2020 D > 2022 R voter.

1998 Democrats made Bill Clintons Impeachment a huge Issue. I think it was one of the reasons why they gained Seats in the Senate.
2002 Republicans gained Seats because of 9/11.

Democrats would a similar Event to 9/11 to make gains. I am pretty confident that one Chamber will flip.

I feel like the economy massively improving and COVID basically being over are far more relevant to people's lives than a President being impeached. I don't see why 2022 can't be a good midterm for dems.

Not to say that the economy will be amazing by Nov 2022, or that dems will have a good midterm... I just don't see why it's being ruled out as a possibility.

[2016]

We already know that Jackson isn't Cooper with Covid cases rising I would edit my earlier prediction D's are poised to win WI, PA and NH and Rs will pick up GA for wave insurance

They won't poll the state, since Biden honeymoon is over, he not at 60%, the Ds would have released a poll by now

But, if we have a boom Economy, there will be a blue Wave

EVEN with a boom Economy there won't be a blue Wave. A Midterm Wave favouring the Party with an Incumbent President has never happened and it won't happen.

Democrats won't win Wisconsin either. They had a D+8 Wave in 2018 and Evers barely beat Scott Walker by some 30K Votes.

So what are you smoking here! The only Republican Seat where Democrats actually start as Favourites is in PA!

1998 and 2002?

I don’t see why it’s impossible for 2022 to be a good year for dems. Dems are passing party line bills and can take credit for the economic recovery and bash R’s over the head for voting against it. And I’m saying this as someone who might be a 2020 D > 2022 R voter.

1998 Democrats made Bill Clintons Impeachment a huge Issue. I think it was one of the reasons why they gained Seats in the Senate.
2002 Republicans gained Seats because of 9/11.

Democrats would a similar Event to 9/11 to make gains. I am pretty confident that one Chamber will flip.

I feel like the economy massively improving and COVID basically being over are far more relevant to people's lives than a President being impeached. I don't see why 2022 can't be a good midterm for dems.

Not to say that the economy will be amazing by Nov 2022, or that dems will have a good midterm... I just don't see why it's being ruled out as a possibility.

North Carolina though is a very difficult State to get especially in a Midterm. I mean by all accounts Joe Biden & Cal Cunningham should have won their respective Races last year but they didn't. Georgia voting to the left of North Carolina is almost unheard of.

And then the bullsh**t bingo Media already portraying the Republican Party extinct, done, whatever you name it because of the Senate Retirements.

The only Senate Retirement that hurt Republicans was Pat Toomeys. Burr retiring in NC is actually a good thing and so is Blunt in MO. And in OH Republicans have a pretty deep bench they can draw from. The same is the case in WI and potentially IA.

I mean I hear a lot of the crap stuff I've heard after Obama won in 2008.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The absence of polls show that these races aside from WI, PA and NH that they are Lean R

It's not gonna be a boom Economy next yr, the Prez usually lose 1 or both Houses since Bill Clinton's

I have buyers remorse, we could have done better with a different Prez.

.Biden said with Obama we are gonna cure Cancer and then again in 2020 cure Covid, not so, we are stuck with Covid

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know that Jackson isn't Cooper with Covid cases rising I would edit my earlier prediction D's are poised to win WI, PA and NH and Rs will pick up GA for wave insurance

They won't poll the state, since Biden honeymoon is over, he not at 60%, the Ds would have released a poll by now

But, if we have a boom Economy, there will be a blue Wave

EVEN with a boom Economy there won't be a blue Wave. A Midterm Wave favouring the Party with an Incumbent President has never happened and it won't happen.

Democrats won't win Wisconsin either. They had a D+8 Wave in 2018 and Evers barely beat Scott Walker by some 30K Votes.

So what are you smoking here! The only Republican Seat where Democrats actually start as Favourites is in PA!

1998 and 2002?

I don’t see why it’s impossible for 2022 to be a good year for dems. Dems are passing party line bills and can take credit for the economic recovery and bash R’s over the head for voting against it. And I’m saying this as someone who might be a 2020 D > 2022 R voter.

1998 Democrats made Bill Clintons Impeachment a huge Issue. I think it was one of the reasons why they gained Seats in the Senate.
2002 Republicans gained Seats because of 9/11.

Democrats would a similar Event to 9/11 to make gains. I am pretty confident that one Chamber will flip.

I feel like the economy massively improving and COVID basically being over are far more relevant to people's lives than a President being impeached. I don't see why 2022 can't be a good midterm for dems.

Not to say that the economy will be amazing by Nov 2022, or that dems will have a good midterm... I just don't see why it's being ruled out as a possibility.

The Economy isn't the issue, many people are living off of limited income and when you live on limited income in a Pandemic, it's unfair that Unemployment issurance which only account for 18M people, are getting more money than everyone else, when stimulus money runs out, your monthly income is not enough. The 1400 and 1.9R was only supposed to go as far as the Covid cases, but we are seeing an increase in Covid cases now, certain parts of the Economy is still closed


Again, the South is gonna vote Red, but the North will stay D and the H and S like in 2018 can go in different directions, I am still a D and will vote that way but the odds are in the Rs favor in the House with Redistricting

[Lognog]

Former Mayor of Charlotte & former North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory expected to launch Senate Bid this week
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/12/former-north-carolina-governor-senate-run-480960
This is OVAH for Democrats before it begins. Jeff Jackson isn't going to beat McCrory in a Biden Midterm.

I mean, McCrory managed to lose as an incumbent even as Trump carried the state by 3 points. I agree this is a lean R race, but McCrory hardly seems like the strongest candidate.

Yeah, personally I'm rooting for him in the primary because he seems like the weakest candidate of the ones that can get the nomination

[Vern]

I can see Walker or Budd, heck even both dropping out and just running for Congress. Once we get a new map, we will know more.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/carolinajournal/status/1382051383524868108?s=21

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1382312563430539268

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1382312563430539268

And here’s his announcement tweet and video:

https://twitter.com/patmccrorync/status/1382314665645051905?s=21

[Pink Panther]

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1382312563430539268

This race probably goes from Lean R to Tilt R, since McCory probably is the favorite to win the nomination unless Trump runs.

[Lognog]

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1382312563430539268

This race probably goes from Lean R to Tilt R, since McCory probably is the favorite to win the nomination unless Trump runs.

What about Walker?

[Meatball Ron]

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1382312563430539268

This race probably goes from Lean R to Tilt R, since McCory probably is the favorite to win the nomination unless Trump runs.

What about Walker?

McCrory, Robinson (if he runs), and Trump (if she runs) are all likelier to win the primary than Walker. Not basing that on this poll alone, but it shows the general magnitude of Walker's name recognition deficit:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/548028-lara-trump-leads-gop-field-in-north-carolina-senate-race-poll-shows