Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hollywood]

Russia's sheer size means that it won't be quick to move stuff in by rail or road. You're looking at 28 hours without stopping from Ufa to Minsk by car and trucks aren't as fast. 30 hours by passenger train and freight is slower.

The Russian Force isn't that large given that they are invading a country with an advanced and well-trained military.  The Russians are using about 175-250K Troops, while the Ukrainians have 250k troops, and 350K Reservists.  This is a country with advanced technology, and boasts a pretty impressive nuclear power plants and a respectable manufactured technological and chemical goods sector.  This isn't Iraq and Afghanistan in which 30-50% of the population are either F-ing blood relatives, children or pet Goats.  You can't just sweep a first-world country away with a blitzkrieg in three weeks.  

In the last two weeks, the Ukrainians were able to out-maneuver the Russians and mobilize to various covered positions and supply depots, because they know the landscapes, pitfalls, and best places to fight and ambush.  The Russians have finally put an end to the maneuverability of the Ukrainians over the last week by taking it slower than they may have anticipated, and utilizing their surveillance drones to identify the energy depots, weapons caches, as well as soldiers and positions hiding in the Civilian Population.  The Russians are now shelling and bombing Western Areas.  They will have complete control of the air-space within the next day or two, and then they will move much quicker.  

Based on Russian Intelligence Reports, War Games, and Combat in Syria/Kazakhistan, the Russian forces have updated and re-organized their battalions to cheaply and slowly gain ground superiority over areas in the field with advanced technology.  Once they take a position, they have drones, anti-aircraft, UAVs, EMP Guns, etc to hold the ground while surveilling the area with smaller drones like has been done by the Israelis in their country and Russia in Syria.  

[Hollywood]

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

They have been taking heavy casualties - extremely heavy casualties according to some estimates - and morale is clearly low for this and other reasons. These things matter a lot in wars, much more than the speed of any advance, particularly in a country with only one significant natural barrier until you reach its extreme western end.

Throughout its varied incarnations, the Russian military has often been able to take casualties and still yet function at a rate that other militaries could not, but this related to the ability of the Empire (whether Romanov or Soviet) to bring new soldiers to the front or create whole new armies that opponents were unable to do for basic demographic reasons. Even so it was often a close-run thing: had the Russian army been destroyed after Borodino (as nearly happened) then that would have been terminal for the defence against Napoleon, for instance. Not only that, but sometimes things still fell through: the sheer weight of casualties suffered during the (technically successful!) Brusilov Offensive in 1916 contributed directly to the collapse of the Russian war effort and the fall of the Tsar.

The thing is, the Russian military these days does not have the capacity to do that. It has lost many of its most productive recruiting grounds (one of which was Ukraine!), the post-Soviet demographic disaster has had a predictable impact on its pool of potential recruits, it has problems in attracting genuine volunteers to become career soldiers, and the military and the state are so utterly riddled with corruption that it lacks the capacity to even enforce conscription at anything like the levels it would theoretically need.

I make no predictions as to how this will unfold (other than to say that thousands more will die and that I really cannot see how any form of military victory can now be turned into a political one: and a military victory that cannot be turned into a political victory is not a victory at all) and given the record of predictions before the invasion neither should anyone else, but certain assumptions based on the military history of Russia that a lot of people have internalised simply do not hold and it is important to be aware of this.

What's the source of these casualties?  Ukraine?  I find the Russian numbers far more believable at this point in the war, and I realize that they're spreading a lot of BS over their airways.  Ukrainians didn't take out 10K Russians while only losing a few hundred Soldiers while counting some armed Ukrainians as "Civilians".  There are Ukrainian Civilians helping and fighting the Russians that they call 'Russian Soliders' or 'Saboteurs'.  Its BS.  For example, I remember the story about those 'Snake Island' Ukrainians that died heroes resisting a Russian Vessel after exclaiming, "Russian Warship. Go F Yourself".  Total Fabrication.  They surrendered immediately without firing a shot, and I believe it cause I saw that none of them were hurt.    The US, EU and NATO are all qualifying their numbers by warning people that the death toll is substantially higher than the official report.  

[Hollywood]

Russia strikes at Ukrainian air bases today

"Russian forces attack airfields in Ukraine as Zelensky pleads for fighter jets

MUKACHEVO, Ukraine — Russia targeted a military air base and a commercial airport in central Ukraine on Sunday, according to Russian and Ukrainian officials, in attacks that could deny Ukraine usable airstrips as Kyiv presses Western allies to send fighter planes to combat Moscow’s invasion.

A spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said the military had struck and disabled Ukraine’s Starokostiantyniv military air base, about 150 miles southwest of Kyiv, early Sunday, using long-range, high precision weapons. The airport was among dozens of targets, including a Russian-made air defense system owned by Ukraine, the spokesman said.

Later Sunday, in a video message, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a missile strike on Vinnystia, about 70 miles southeast of the air base, had “completely destroyed the airport.”



"



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-HD5A5ZR5TBD3HA6BGJPATPXNTY

Bad, bad news if Russia can take out critical airports like that.

They were always going to take out the Ukrainian Air Defense, but they had to be careful of the anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles.  The Ukrainians have a large well-trained army and citizenry.  I think people under-estimated the Ukrainians as if it was the Iraqi Army.  

Right now, Ukraine desperately needs a re-supply of anti-aircraft missiles, but the Russians have pretty much taken out their supply lines from the Dneiper River all the way to the Russian border, and they've encircled many Ukrainian Forces in the East.  Russian has taken out communication, energy deposits, and weapons caches throughout Ukraine.  Mobile Networks are down in many parts of the country.  Food supplies are dwindling to the point where everyone is foraging for food like they're living in the 'Walking Dead' Universe.  The last few days have been devastating.  They literally cannot receive weapons unless it's consistently air dropped.  Good Luck!

[Hollywood]

Russia strikes at Ukrainian air bases today

"Russian forces attack airfields in Ukraine as Zelensky pleads for fighter jets

MUKACHEVO, Ukraine — Russia targeted a military air base and a commercial airport in central Ukraine on Sunday, according to Russian and Ukrainian officials, in attacks that could deny Ukraine usable airstrips as Kyiv presses Western allies to send fighter planes to combat Moscow’s invasion.

A spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said the military had struck and disabled Ukraine’s Starokostiantyniv military air base, about 150 miles southwest of Kyiv, early Sunday, using long-range, high precision weapons. The airport was among dozens of targets, including a Russian-made air defense system owned by Ukraine, the spokesman said.

Later Sunday, in a video message, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a missile strike on Vinnystia, about 70 miles southeast of the air base, had “completely destroyed the airport.”



"



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-HD5A5ZR5TBD3HA6BGJPATPXNTY

Bad, bad news if Russia can take out critical airports like that.

They were always going to take out the Ukrainian Air Defense, but they had to be careful of the anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles.  The Ukrainians have a large well-trained army and citizenry.  I think people under-estimated the Ukrainians as if it was the Iraqi Army.  

Right now, Ukraine desperately needs a re-supply of anti-aircraft missiles, but the Russians have pretty much taken out their supply lines from the Dneiper River all the way to the Russian border, and they've encircled many Ukrainian Forces in the East.  Russian has taken out communication, energy deposits, and weapons caches throughout Ukraine.  Mobile Networks are down in many parts of the country.  Food supplies are dwindling to the point where everyone is foraging for food like they're living in the 'Walking Dead' Universe.  The last few days have been devastating.  They literally cannot receive weapons unless it's consistently air dropped.  Good Luck!

Well Iraq was fundamentally different cause of the fact Suddam was oppressing a majority of the population and many viewed the US as the lesser evil. Where things started to go wrong in Iraq was the way we implemented de baathification.


The issue with that was given that Iraq was a one party dictatorship for decades at that point, banning any person who had associations with the Ba'th party from employment in public sector jobs was always gonna backfire. The reason is there were probably many Iraqis who had worked in those public sector jobs who were not bad people but because they had to be part of the Ba'th party to get employment and banning them from getting jobs meant we had to build literally every institution from scratch which led to anarchy.

What we should have done is have competent experienced people who not actually horrible people run those institutions and agencies from the start which would have made the transition away from Suddam's Government much more smooth.

Okay.  But our media is saying that Putin is not loved by a majority of citizens.  They say the same thing about all our enemies.  Most French People loved Napoleon even though he took dictatorial powers, and conquered the Austrians.  It was a different story in Spain.  

Where things went wrong?  You're the first person to not say "Mueller", "Bush", and "Cheney" intentionally lied so they could subsidize the military industrial companies of their friends and associates.  Why is this so hard to accept?  Is it cause Cheney hate Trump so she must be good.  I wonder how much money she's making with the Ukraine conflict.

What's interesting about the information you're providing about the Bath Party being prevented from work in the public sector is the fact that their Russians in Ukraine claiming that they weren't allowed public jobs cause of their associations with Russia.  They couldn't run for government positions, and they were routinely harassed.  Now you're saying it's a pattern? Yeah.  I saw the pattern for this Ukraine Conflict coming way back in 2018, and then I was sure it would happen when Biden won the election.  

The fact of the matter is that if I was a Russian Dictator that had promised to bring parts of the Soviet Empire back into the fold, I would absolutely take Ukraine for its economic and military importance as soon as Biden took office.  And boneheads will still continue to push for this absurd money-making Iranian deal for John Kerry, despite this administration being made fool of by multiple 'potential' and 'current' allies.    

And honestly, what we should have done in Iraq was left Saddam Hussein cause he was doing a good job managing an Iraqi population where almost 50% were inbreeding, and an eye-dropping small minority are estimated to be pedophilias cause that's a religion.  We couldn't even consider your suggestion about the Bathist, because the Bush Administration and Intelligence Agencies consistently and continuously lied about the situation.  Why wasn't anyone in the integrity Administration of Bush 2 brave enough to leak that information like was done for Trump?  

[Hollywood]

Could Putin use the WNBA star as a bargaining chip with the US?

Is she even worth anything?  Her income is derived from the charity that the male basketball players generate by being talented entertainers while the entirety of WNBA is loses huge sums of money to produce their farce of season.  She's widely hated by the fans for her sexually abusive comments, and her ludicrous claims of victimhood cause society doesn't see it fit to let her steal more money from the guys that earn it.  

But seriously, they'll get her back in exchange for something valuable.  Trump could probably get ungrateful butt back quickly.  

[Hollywood]

In case you have not yet, read this article. It is the ultimate roller coaster ride. Russia has already lost with its best troops, it should pick one target (east Ukraine, Kiev or Odessa), rather than three at once, but Putin runs the show and wants all three to be in the best negotiating position, Russia will be out of gas in two weeks, so it is now or never for them, but Russia can still probably win a war of attrition, and Ukraine is being worn down too,  Putin can mobilize the whole country in his chase for the white whale, and maybe get it, opposition is just in the cities, Putin controls the fake news, and on and on. Maybe you will get less sea sick than I did, on the high seas of Putin's obsessive quest, with no one to tell him enough already. The guy has some credibility in the sense he lists what he does not know, fog of war and all of that. He's a more modest than hubristic expert.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/21/michael-kofman-russia-military-expert-00018906

Oh, the image  looks like a modern children's crusade (and why would the guy on the corner who is most visible and looks like 14 be part of the propaganda message - to win favor with those into child abuse?), but then I read that Putin was like a neutron bomb that had fused Russian orthodox mysticism, hedonism and sadism into a new element, and like all new elements, a highly volatile one.

My main takeaways from the article;

- Russia has used up all of its top forces and will run out of gas soon. Time isn't on the side of Russia, but it'll be worse for Ukraine if the fighting lasts longer than a month.

- This could very well end in a "Russian win". But since they look to accomplish many things at once, their original objective of regime change seems to have been cast aside, they're not prioritizing major cities and they don't seem to have the forces/logistics to conquer Kiev, no one knows what the hell a "Russian win" actually means or looks like anymore.

The only problem with the war of attrition point is I don’t see how Putin can politically pull it off. I know he dominates the news waves in Russia but I don’t see how forced conscription or seizing private business for the war effort when the country is teetering on economic collapse doesn’t see pushback on the home front

Remember it’s not running out of men that loses a war of attrition, it’s running out of material and/or national morale collapsing. It’s very hard to see the later happening, Ukrainians don’t seem like they are going to ever stop fighting and it’s generally been accepted that terror bombing campaigns, which is effectively what Russian seems to be doing, actually harden not break national resolve. As for the former, Russian production capacity isn’t looking great nor are the cash reserves they would need to get foreign equipment, if they could even find a seller.

Ukrainians shared a Report that a Chinese Ship was using the Southern to drop off supplies.  The report came from Turkey as the ship passed through Straight of Bosporous, but ti was later removed the interactive Ukraine Map.  Probably cause it's really dumb idea to tell the Russians that you have yes on their caro. 

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1556607935199027201

All those issues are side-effects of war and occupation. To quote Tywin Lannister from Game of Thrones, "I'm sure if spies snuck into our own encampment, they'd report growing discontent amongst the Southern Lords.  This is War.  No one's content."  Let me demonstrate by providing videos that Twitter, Google, and YouTube censor from their platforms to keep the simpletons uninformed.  

This is a video from June 12 of Ukrainian Soldiers surrendering weapons to their commander after refusing to fight. https://rumble.com/v1bubcr-07.12.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

This is another Brigade refusing to fight in May. https://rumble.com/v162aqx-ukraine-armed-forces-brigade-refuse-to-follow-order.html

This is a video of Ukrainian Soldier calling out Zelensky for pulling back the guns so he can shoot some propaganda. https://rumble.com/v175zmz-ukraine-war-surrendered-afu-fighter-told-how-they-were-forced-to-participat.html

There's dozens of videos that were shot by Ukrainian and Russian Cameramen, and many videos by the former armed force or individuals can be independently verified by anyone that's willing to seek the information.  

There's people chronicling the events in Ukraine, and I'm able to see the extent of Russian advancements, as well as some of the casualties after some battles.  I am positive that the situation for Ukrainian Soldiers on the Eastern Front is exponentially worse than it is for the Russians defending Cherson  The media keeps insisting there will be some large offensive by the Ukrainians towards Cherson, but both sides know it's impossible given the collapse of the Ukrainian fortified lines near Bakmut and Aviidivka.  And they'v already tried a major offensive on Cherson multiple times, and it's essentially a large kill zone for the Russian Artillery.  They would suffer devastating casualties in a win or lose scenario.  

[Hollywood]

I don't think the Russians are exaggerating the Ukrainian losses over the past two days, because we're starting to get some corroboration from photographs and videos.  The video below is a close-up showing a line of Ukrainian Land Vehicles and Infantry getting obliterated by Russian bombardments.  Soldiers are literally blasted off the ground, and several dozen are hit while hiding in trenches.  On Rumble, I viewed a couple of zoomed-out video showing several miles of Ukrainian Land Vehicles smoldering underneath clouds of smoke.  https://gettr.com/post/p1p0d3ef32b

In the past three days, I believe the Ukrainians have suffered massive casualties, probably exceeding 3 thousand men.  The front line looks absolutely horrifying.  Aside from battles in WW1-2 films, I've never seen anything like it in my life.  

[Hollywood]

I don't think the Russians are exaggerating the Ukrainian losses over the past two days, because we're starting to get some corroboration from photographs and videos.  The video below is a close-up showing a line of Ukrainian Land Vehicles and Infantry getting obliterated by Russian bombardments.  Soldiers are literally blasted off the ground, and several dozen are hit while hiding in trenches.  On Rumble, I viewed a couple of zoomed-out video showing several miles of Ukrainian Land Vehicles smoldering underneath clouds of smoke.  https://gettr.com/post/p1p0d3ef32b

In the past three days, I believe the Ukrainians have suffered massive casualties, probably exceeding 3 thousand men.  The front line looks absolutely horrifying.  Aside from battles in WW1-2 films, I've never seen anything like it in my life.  

People in this thread kept going after bilaps because he was pro-Putin (and, in some cases, because he was Serbian), but at least he knew better than to buy into this crap.

If there were 3k casualties on either side within 3 days, there'd be more visual evidence.

I'm not buying into anything.  In fact, I'm estimating more deaths than the Russians.  Based on what I've seen, it's my opinion that the Ukrainian death toll over the past three days has risen above 3k.

How do you know there would be more visual evidence?  It's not like it's easy to find videos from the battlefield, and US media is really only reporting disseminations from Ukrainian Government, which has been very little at this point.  Sometimes the Ukrainians suffers hundreds and thousands of casualties within a week, and the media doesn't report it.  The Ukrainians don't even report casualties. It's literally part of their strategy to keep their population supportive of the war by not bumming them out.   lol.

It actually really pisses me off that Pro-Ukrainian Crusaders in the US are absolutely fine with me criticizing the Russians for getting their butts kicked out of Kiev and Kherson, but then get all pissy when I post Ukrainian failures and casualties.  It's not like the Russian Advocates aren't a bunch of annoying A-Holes, but I can at least get a break from their POV on mainstream media.

[Hollywood]

The most important news of the day was supposed to involve the IAEA mission in Zaporizhzhia, but theUkrainian decided to pull off a military action as the Inspectors were approaching the location.  Sixty Ukrainian Soldiers took helicopters over the Dnipro, landed on rooftops and streets, and then attempted to take control.  The Inspector was delayed until after the Russians mopped up the area.  I’m honestly baffled by this performance.  

The IAEA Chief confirmed that the action took place.   The Russians claim that the IAEA were stopped at the border checkpoint, and told by the Ukrainians that the Russians had fired on their own positions.  https://rumble.com/v1i7pqq-iaea-mission-heads-to-russian-held-nuclear-plant.html

[Hollywood]

There are some new videos coming from the Kherson Front from Russian Aerial Cameras.  The first video is actually from a Ukrainian Soldier showing the evacuation of dead and grievously injured soldiers.  Both the Russian and Ukrainian Militaries acknowledged that Ukraine has progressed through the three bridgeheads near Lozove, and Ukraine did so due to cover provided by small forests.  The Russians aren't worried about it.  As soon as the Ukrainians move their armored vehicles into the open plains and steppes, Russian artillery and aerial bombardments are hitting Ukrainians up and down the segment. They are attempting to blow the bridgeheads and cut the Ukrainians off from the North.  If Ukraine has plans to initiate a larger offensive on Kherson, they need to do it before the Russians neutralize this segment in Lozove.
https://rumble.com/v1ifrib-hows-the-counter-offensive-going-khokhols.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqlx-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqmr-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqop-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqnb-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

[Hollywood]

There are some new videos coming from the Kherson Front from Russian Aerial Cameras.  The first video is actually from a Ukrainian Soldier showing the evacuation of dead and grievously injured soldiers.  Both the Russian and Ukrainian Militaries acknowledged that Ukraine has progressed through the three bridgeheads near Lozove, and Ukraine did so due to cover provided by small forests.  The Russians aren't worried about it.  As soon as the Ukrainians move their armored vehicles into the open plains and steppes, Russian artillery and aerial bombardments are hitting Ukrainians up and down the segment. They are attempting to blow the bridgeheads and cut the Ukrainians off from the North.  If Ukraine has plans to initiate a larger offensive on Kherson, they need to do it before the Russians neutralize this segment in Lozove.
https://rumble.com/v1ifrib-hows-the-counter-offensive-going-khokhols.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqlx-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqmr-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqop-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqnb-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

What options do you see the Ukrainians having here re: Lozove?
It would make sense if the open plains work more to the Russians' advantage than forests, though HIMARS should reduce any disparities on that front.

The HIMARS are not used for repeated and sustained artillery bombardments, particularly convoys and infantry that are moving across the battlefield.  They require pre-determined targets as opposed to moving targets, and need to mobilized to covered positions once fired so the enemy can’t locate them.  The problem with HIMARS is that they take too much time to fire, and it’s difficult to make operational fire corrections.  The Ukrainians simply don’t have a lot of artillery that can promptly direct divided warheads towards moving targets via UAV information.  The Russians clearly have these types of UAV assisted Artillery systems as demonstrated by the videos I posted. 

I don’t see any clear options for Ukraine.  The problem is that they lack Air Support, Anti-Aircraft defense systems, and artillery.  The HIMARS are great for hitting supply-lines and stationary Russian targets, but they aren’t able reduce the huge disadvantage the VSU faces in open field combat.  These large Ukrainian convoys are sitting ducks, and they seem to be getting funneled into kill zones. 

In sum, it is simply easier to defend than it is to take territory, and the VSU doesn’t even appear to have the offensive weaponry to take on the Russians.  The Ukrainians had no element of surprise, because they announced their intentions to launch this counter-offensive a couple of months.  They are undoubtedly taking massive casualties, as well as lost a significant number of land vehicles.  I simply don’t have an answer for them.    If they stop the offensive, it’s a big win for Russia.  If they continue, they risk losing several thousand additional troops with slim odds of success (whatever that looks like). 

[Hollywood]

If they stop the offensive, it’s a big win for Russia.  If they continue, they risk losing several thousand additional troops with slim odds of success (whatever that looks like). 

it's not a big win if Russia is cut off on the west side of Dnipro, the decisive factor is how long Russia remains able to resupply its forces. 

"Success" would be getting close enough to Kherson that an uprising within the city could succeed.

If the Offensive Stopped, there would be no more Ukrainian advancements.  The Ukrainians wouldn't be able to cut off supplies if the stopped, right?  Would that not be a big win for Russia?  I imagine it would be a psychological hit for Ukraine given that they've boasted about this campaign for two months. 

If the Ukrainians can get close enough to spark an uprising, I would consider that a huge success.  From what I can gather, they are having a tough time making any meaningful progress over the open fields south of the Ingulets River, as well as the plains to N and NW of Kherson. 

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1566435358492999682

Great example of their social media game being adept in giving people hope about Ukraine's position.
Let's hope they can back up this optimism with long-term action.

The VSU actually made some progress on the NE segment of the Kherson Front. They fought the Russians tooth-and-nail for Vysokopillia (part of contested area) before the Russians withdrew to the South.  Vysokopillia is one of three towns that fortify a high point that Russians use to bombard Ukrainian forces moving south from their garrison in Kryvyi Rih.  The Ukrainians must also take Arkhanheiskie (Russian zone) before funneling through open field lying between the Inhulets River and some canals.  They will also have to control Myroliubivka (contested area protect by mines to the east) in order to protect the offensive.  

Too early to say whether these are substantive gains.  I think the Ukrainian forces are going to run into the same problems they had at the Lozove when they have to cross open terrain.  The VSU boasted that they had liberated four towns/settlements as the Russians withdrew from their positions.  Russian Troops swung around and launched a counter-offensives to protect the supply-lines, and reinforcements from the other direction wedged (and partially encircle) the VSU into a kill zone for their aerial and artillery bombardments.

[Hollywood]

I don't see any reason for Putin to blow-up his number 1 bargaining chip with Germany before Winter.  I'd go with accident before I thought the Russians gave away their 'Queen'. 

However, everyone knows that public pressure this winter will provide incentive for NATO Leaders to negotiate with Russia, especially after the Italian and Swedish Elections.  A concession to Russia remains an option as long as the pipeline functions, so the only good geopolitical move for Nato is removing it from the board without anyone seeing or blaming you. 

[Hollywood]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?    

[Hollywood]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?    

Why the hell should I be able to explain Putin's thought processes? The man started a war that he apparently can't win.

I pretty much expected you to shirk the question, because you know it doesn't add up.  

Starting a war in the past that you believe Putin currently cannot win is the worst excuse for not coming up with a thought process, because Putin and Russian Leadership clearly expressed (thought) they could win.  Almost everyone thought they could win until Ukraine pushed them back with NATO weapons.  There's also 8+ years of history that explains the rationale for Russia's invasion.  You found a way to come up with  silliest example possible to demonstrate that you were unable to conceive of a logical reason for Putin to blow-up his geopolitically strategic pipeline.  

[Hollywood]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?    

They need an "official" excuse not to supply gas rather than say the obvious out loud: That they don't want to supply as long as Germany has sanctions imposed on Russia, aids Ukraine with arms and other military equipment and takes in Ukrainian refugees.

Nice.  That's an acceptable response.  

1) They already had a good BS excuse for failing to provide natural gas, and that blow-back was falling back on German Leaders.  Blowing up the pipeline would provide German Leaders with the perfect excuse for them to turn public ire away from them and toward Russia.

2) I also don't see the logic in blowing up the pipeline that you've shut off in order to compel countries to remove sanctions, or alternatively, pay for LNG with roubles.    

3) How does one stop a country from delivering aid to Ukraine when they've blown up the most important bargaining chip?  It completely precludes the possibility of accomplishing goal (2), (3) and (4).  There's no reason to comply with any demands anymore.

4) They don't care about the Refugees in Germany.  I imagine it help put pressure on Germany just like it did after WW1.  

[Hollywood]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?   

Why the hell should I be able to explain Putin's thought processes? The man started a war that he apparently can't win.

The pipeline being blown up does nothing but assist US designs. Only a small number of people are able to sabotage the pipeline; presently, everything points to America doing this and not Russia.

The Russians, if they were to sabotage the pipeline, would most likely do so after the winter was over, not now. There is a method to their madness.

NS1 has been shut down and NS2 was incomplete. They aren't valuable to Russia anymore.

They in fact were. They had long-term value and gave the Russians more avenues to act. The blowing up of these pipelines corners Russia still further.

My brother, most people here are not critical thinkers when it comes to "their side".

So not only is the UA claiming responsibility (high level officials), but Poles are also thanking the US for the sabotage. To top it all off, this is very bad for Russia, as now people can't protest for NS2 to be opened when they start sliding into poverty due to insane prices. In essence, this means Europe can't negotiate with Russia even if it wanted to now.

We need to stop trying lol

Exactly  It's seems pretty obvious that a NATO Partner would blow-up the pipeline.  It had been a geopolitical weakness for European Leaders that were expressing their willingness to endlessly deepen the economic struggles of their people for as long as Ukraine needed support.  The action clearly solves the problem, and blaming Russia to reaffirm the narrative.  The timing of the event with the referendums is also a bit suspicious.  

And I'm not even trying. Isn't it just fun to see people climb to new levels of absurdity in order to justify their rationale for believing the Russians are automatically responsible for every unfortunate, awful, or controversial event. The media and Ukrainians tried blaming Russians for shelling their own positions at the Zap Power Plant for over month, and somehow members thought that was more realistic than the Ukrainians shelling it. Then the Ukrainians admitted to shelling the NUCLEAR plant, because Russians were firing artillery from nearby positions.  At what point does one stop reaching for new fantasies to justify a single falsehood?

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/Wise_old_Dan/status/1574862547429236758?s=20&t=BoZKitdr3...

I guess the point that woman tweeting the photos was making is that all the Russian Soldiers are menacing 65+ year-old Men that fall asleep while on duty, but it's clear to anyone with a brain that those three photos are staged at some location, and the fourth photo of women legitimately crying at some other location was added to give it more credibility.  LOL

[Hollywood]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?   

Why the hell should I be able to explain Putin's thought processes? The man started a war that he apparently can't win.

The pipeline being blown up does nothing but assist US designs. Only a small number of people are able to sabotage the pipeline; presently, everything points to America doing this and not Russia.

The Russians, if they were to sabotage the pipeline, would most likely do so after the winter was over, not now. There is a method to their madness.

NS1 has been shut down and NS2 was incomplete. They aren't valuable to Russia anymore.

They in fact were. They had long-term value and gave the Russians more avenues to act. The blowing up of these pipelines corners Russia still further.

My brother, most people here are not critical thinkers when it comes to "their side".

So not only is the UA claiming responsibility (high level officials), but Poles are also thanking the US for the sabotage. To top it all off, this is very bad for Russia, as now people can't protest for NS2 to be opened when they start sliding into poverty due to insane prices. In essence, this means Europe can't negotiate with Russia even if it wanted to now.

We need to stop trying lol

Exactly  It's seems pretty obvious that a NATO Partner would blow-up the pipeline.  It had been a geopolitical weakness for European Leaders that were expressing their willingness to endlessly deepen the economic struggles of their people for as long as Ukraine needed support.  The action clearly solves the problem, and blaming Russia to reaffirm the narrative.  The timing of the event with the referendums is also a bit suspicious.  

And I'm not even trying. Isn't it just fun to see people climb to new levels of absurdity in order to justify their rationale for believing the Russians are automatically responsible for every unfortunate, awful, or controversial event. The media and Ukrainians tried blaming Russians for shelling their own positions at the Zap Power Plant for over month, and somehow members thought that was more realistic than the Ukrainians shelling it. Then the Ukrainians admitted to shelling the NUCLEAR plant, because Russians were firing artillery from nearby positions.  At what point does one stop reaching for new fantasies to justify a single falsehood?

It just doesn't strike me as particularly realistic that "a NATO partner" would blow up the pipeline, simply for the reason that you would need to successfully keep that a secret for all eternity because if it ever came out it could threaten the very existence of the alliance. That seems like a very high risk operation, a gamble that could potentially backfire tremendously. That wouldn't strike me as a particularly sound decision. Actually, it would be in Russia's best interest if a "NATO partner" blew up the pipeline and then someone (maybe Russia itself) makes it public.

All in all, that just doesn't seem like a thing that happens in the real world.

You really don't think it happens?  Gulf of Tonkin?  Reichstag Fire?  It's always in a country's interest to blame their enemy.  It's in the US, Germany and Ukrainian interest to blame Russia, and vice versa.  Blaming another country for an attack you committed isn't a new phenomenon. Russia had no other interest in attacking the pipeline, because they could accomplish the same goal by shutting it down.  And how would they have pulled off the attack totally unnoticed despite the pipeline sitting between Skane and Mecklenburg.  They did see a US Battleship in the area.  https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/damage-nord-stream-pipelines-unprecedented-may-have-been-sabotaged

There have be been huge protests in Germany calling for the opening of the Nordstream. The US promised to shut down the pipeline if Russia invaded, and it was our national international interest to stop it.  The US wants to sell Natural Gas, and the price finally makes sense. Poland was so interested that they celebrated the attack. Ukraine had been researching ways to take it down.  Every member has an interest in stopping Russia from negotiating. All parties had leaders and parties with political interest, and their concerns about upcoming elections were evident given the results in Italy and Sweden.  
https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/huge-protest-german-citizens-demand-end-to-sanctions-on-russia/

Honestly, how would the US know about the attack?  It was the US.  There's no reason the Russians would blow-up their own assets.  That would be like accusing Bush of 9/11.

[Hollywood]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?    

Why the hell should I be able to explain Putin's thought processes? The man started a war that he apparently can't win.

The pipeline being blown up does nothing but assist US designs. Only a small number of people are able to sabotage the pipeline; presently, everything points to America doing this and not Russia.

The Russians, if they were to sabotage the pipeline, would most likely do so after the winter was over, not now. There is a method to their madness.

NS1 has been shut down and NS2 was incomplete. They aren't valuable to Russia anymore.

They in fact were. They had long-term value and gave the Russians more avenues to act. The blowing up of these pipelines corners Russia still further.

My brother, most people here are not critical thinkers when it comes to "their side".

So not only is the UA claiming responsibility (high level officials), but Poles are also thanking the US for the sabotage. To top it all off, this is very bad for Russia, as now people can't protest for NS2 to be opened when they start sliding into poverty due to insane prices. In essence, this means Europe can't negotiate with Russia even if it wanted to now.

We need to stop trying lol

Exactly  It's seems pretty obvious that a NATO Partner would blow-up the pipeline.  It had been a geopolitical weakness for European Leaders that were expressing their willingness to endlessly deepen the economic struggles of their people for as long as Ukraine needed support.  The action clearly solves the problem, and blaming Russia to reaffirm the narrative.  The timing of the event with the referendums is also a bit suspicious.  

And I'm not even trying. Isn't it just fun to see people climb to new levels of absurdity in order to justify their rationale for believing the Russians are automatically responsible for every unfortunate, awful, or controversial event. The media and Ukrainians tried blaming Russians for shelling their own positions at the Zap Power Plant for over month, and somehow members thought that was more realistic than the Ukrainians shelling it. Then the Ukrainians admitted to shelling the NUCLEAR plant, because Russians were firing artillery from nearby positions.  At what point does one stop reaching for new fantasies to justify a single falsehood?

It just doesn't strike me as particularly realistic that "a NATO partner" would blow up the pipeline, simply for the reason that you would need to successfully keep that a secret for all eternity because if it ever came out it could threaten the very existence of the alliance. That seems like a very high risk operation, a gamble that could potentially backfire tremendously. That wouldn't strike me as a particularly sound decision. Actually, it would be in Russia's best interest if a "NATO partner" blew up the pipeline and then someone (maybe Russia itself) makes it public.

All in all, that just doesn't seem like a thing that happens in the real world.

Does it matter? No matter what the truth is, each party will keep believing what they want to believe. How about we all just say it was God and move on?

LOL. This is going to have major impacts on people, as well as the conflict.  The more I read, the more I see circumstantial facts pointing to the US, Germany, and Ukraine.   I think it's probably best for your side to call it an accident. 

[Hollywood]

So since apparently one of the "Hot Topics" of the day has to do with the "sabotage" of a couple Russian owned Natural Gas Pipelines, naturally got to check in to see what my "Old Mate" Sutton has to say on the topic.

We still don't know "who dunnit", but in theory we now have a couple possibilities floating around.

Here's a link to his original thread, where he postulates in theory had Russia carried out the sabotage mission would likely be either divers or AUVs.

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1574750304570073088?s=20&t=GKitl_h5k...

Now we have his latest update:

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1574879207603183623?s=20&t=GKitl_h5k...

BUMP--- Apparently Atlas is more interested in bickering about "opinions" versus "data".

It says June 17th on the top right you data whiz. How did nobody catch the most important data on the damn image?  Not one person?  The date is on the Tweet, June 18, so you got some comparison data already. LOL.  

BTW... Media starting to censor commentators and journalists that mention culpability of US and NATO members.  

[Hollywood]

So since apparently one of the "Hot Topics" of the day has to do with the "sabotage" of a couple Russian owned Natural Gas Pipelines, naturally got to check in to see what my "Old Mate" Sutton has to say on the topic.

We still don't know "who dunnit", but in theory we now have a couple possibilities floating around.

Here's a link to his original thread, where he postulates in theory had Russia carried out the sabotage mission would likely be either divers or AUVs.

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1574750304570073088?s=20&t=GKitl_h5k...

Now we have his latest update:

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1574879207603183623?s=20&t=GKitl_h5k...

BUMP--- Apparently Atlas is more interested in bickering about "opinions" versus "data".

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1574798581810200578

You guys are just posting two tweets about how certain modes of attack require a host ship to drop divers and underwater drones.  Then there is a third tweet from June 18 that is labeled by the poster as the "Latest Update".  That's disinformation.  It isn't fact or opinion.  It's a lie. 

The only facts in the tweet relate to the feasibility of blowing up the pipeline.  Sure.  It's feasible if you want to get caught.  lol.

[Hollywood]

"A former Polish Defense Minister, Radek Sikorski, has attributed to the United States the sabotage of two pipelines, Nord Stream 1 and 2, which carry natural gas from Russia to Germany. “Thank you, USA,” Sikorski wrote on Twitter. Sikorski was Minister of National Defense from 2005 - 2007 and served as Deputy Minister of National Defense and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, previously. He is currently an elected member of the European parliament."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2022/09/27/us-blew-up-russian-gas-pipelines-nord-stream-1--2-says-former-polish-defense-minister/?sh=320b7a95312e