Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hollywood]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?    

Why the hell should I be able to explain Putin's thought processes? The man started a war that he apparently can't win.

I pretty much expected you to shirk the question, because you know it doesn't add up.  

Starting a war in the past that you believe Putin currently cannot win is the worst excuse for not coming up with a thought process, because Putin and Russian Leadership clearly expressed (thought) they could win.  Almost everyone thought they could win until Ukraine pushed them back with NATO weapons.  There's also 8+ years of history that explains the rationale for Russia's invasion.  You found a way to come up with  silliest example possible to demonstrate that you were unable to conceive of a logical reason for Putin to blow-up his geopolitically strategic pipeline.  

[Omega21]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?   

Why the hell should I be able to explain Putin's thought processes? The man started a war that he apparently can't win.

The pipeline being blown up does nothing but assist US designs. Only a small number of people are able to sabotage the pipeline; presently, everything points to America doing this and not Russia.

The Russians, if they were to sabotage the pipeline, would most likely do so after the winter was over, not now. There is a method to their madness.

NS1 has been shut down and NS2 was incomplete. They aren't valuable to Russia anymore.

They in fact were. They had long-term value and gave the Russians more avenues to act. The blowing up of these pipelines corners Russia still further.

My brother, most people here are not critical thinkers when it comes to "their side".

So not only is the UA claiming responsibility (high level officials), but Poles are also thanking the US for the sabotage. To top it all off, this is very bad for Russia, as now people can't protest for NS2 to be opened when they start sliding into poverty due to insane prices. In essence, this means Europe can't negotiate with Russia even if it wanted to now.

We need to stop trying lol

[Helsinkian]

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?    

False flag operation to discredit USA or some other Western nation and get an excuse for the Russian navy to operate in that part of the Baltic sea in the name of safeguarding Russia's assets.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/374News/status/1574755327882436609

Incredible if true. I thought Russia would come up with plausible numbers so that gullible morons in the West could fall for it but nope. It's a ****  you, we're North Korea figure.

I mean Lukashenko got 80% in his last election, and it's not possible to be more popular than Luka.  I mean Luka is Putin's best friend and he's always happy to help, but does Putin ask? No.  He just mucks it up.  Sad.

[Oryxslayer]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?    

They need an "official" excuse not to supply gas rather than say the obvious out loud: That they don't want to supply as long as Germany has sanctions imposed on Russia, aids Ukraine with arms and other military equipment and takes in Ukrainian refugees.

Yes. Everything about the Russian strategy after Kharkiv is desperation fueling intensification of presently faltering strategies. Giving themselves an excuse to intensify the perceived squeeze on the EU is perfectly in keeping with these tactics. Of course, like mobilization, this is unlikely to impact their situation positively since Germany has already stockpiled reserves for the winter so they can wiggle out of the economic noose.

Similarly, if one takes a step back, everything that has happened since Kyiv has benefited US/NATO at the expense of Russia. Central Asia is adrift and seeking new friends precisely because Moscow is no longer a perceived threat. Russia continuously falling into pits of her own creation should not be blamed on anyone else, even if everyone else is laughing at how she does fall into said pits.

[Virginiá]

Apparently Ukraine actually hasn't received NASAMS air defense systems yet, and the statements about it before were either mistranslated or mistaken. Not sure. Either way, should be delivered by the end of November. Traditionally batteries have 12 launchers but at least the first two systems Ukraine is getting will have 8, possibly to speed up the delivery.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1574858316605493262

[Storr]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?   

Why the hell should I be able to explain Putin's thought processes? The man started a war that he apparently can't win.

The pipeline being blown up does nothing but assist US designs. Only a small number of people are able to sabotage the pipeline; presently, everything points to America doing this and not Russia.

The Russians, if they were to sabotage the pipeline, would most likely do so after the winter was over, not now. There is a method to their madness.

NS1 has been shut down and NS2 was incomplete. They aren't valuable to Russia anymore.

They in fact were. They had long-term value and gave the Russians more avenues to act. The blowing up of these pipelines corners Russia still further.

My brother, most people here are not critical thinkers when it comes to "their side".

So not only is the UA claiming responsibility (high level officials), but Poles are also thanking the US for the sabotage. To top it all off, this is very bad for Russia, as now people can't protest for NS2 to be opened when they start sliding into poverty due to insane prices. In essence, this means Europe can't negotiate with Russia even if it wanted to now.

We need to stop trying lol

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63044747

"Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak said the damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 was "an act of aggression" towards the EU.

He added that Russia wanted to cause pre-winter panic and urged the EU to increase military support for Ukraine."

""Gas leak from NS-1 [Nord Stream 1] is nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards the EU. Russia wants to destabilise the economic situation in Europe and cause pre-winter panic," Ukraine's Mr Podolyak tweeted in English."

[Hollywood]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?    

They need an "official" excuse not to supply gas rather than say the obvious out loud: That they don't want to supply as long as Germany has sanctions imposed on Russia, aids Ukraine with arms and other military equipment and takes in Ukrainian refugees.

Nice.  That's an acceptable response.  

1) They already had a good BS excuse for failing to provide natural gas, and that blow-back was falling back on German Leaders.  Blowing up the pipeline would provide German Leaders with the perfect excuse for them to turn public ire away from them and toward Russia.

2) I also don't see the logic in blowing up the pipeline that you've shut off in order to compel countries to remove sanctions, or alternatively, pay for LNG with roubles.    

3) How does one stop a country from delivering aid to Ukraine when they've blown up the most important bargaining chip?  It completely precludes the possibility of accomplishing goal (2), (3) and (4).  There's no reason to comply with any demands anymore.

4) They don't care about the Refugees in Germany.  I imagine it help put pressure on Germany just like it did after WW1.  

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1574862655067660295?t=9HVMAfxpORbr0D_JL...

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1574862655067660295?t=9HVMAfxpORbr0D_JL...

The Black Shirts don't want a bunch of Slavs resettling on Roman lands. That much we can be sure of. There can be bad motives for doing good things. 

[Omega21]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63044747

"Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak said the damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 was "an act of aggression" towards the EU.

He added that Russia wanted to cause pre-winter panic and urged the EU to increase military support for Ukraine."

""Gas leak from NS-1 [Nord Stream 1] is nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards the EU. Russia wants to destabilise the economic situation in Europe and cause pre-winter panic," Ukraine's Mr Podolyak tweeted in English."

Anton Herashchenko, current official advisor and a former deputy minister at the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, posted a pic of a UA diver and claimed UA responsibility in a post on his official Telegram.

Not long after he deleted the post (probably after getting flak from higher-ups).

This does not change a single thing regarding the war. Russia was, and still is, the aggressor, and should not be allowed to lob off territories whose residents don't even want to secede (I don't care about Crimea).

Still, doesn't mean I will switch off my brain and mindlessly point the finger at them for everything.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63044747

"Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak said the damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 was "an act of aggression" towards the EU.

He added that Russia wanted to cause pre-winter panic and urged the EU to increase military support for Ukraine."

""Gas leak from NS-1 [Nord Stream 1] is nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards the EU. Russia wants to destabilise the economic situation in Europe and cause pre-winter panic," Ukraine's Mr Podolyak tweeted in English."

Anton Herashchenko, current official advisor and a former deputy minister at the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, posted a pic of a UA diver and claimed UA responsibility in a post on his official Telegram.

Not long after he deleted the post (probably after getting flak from higher-ups).

This does not change a single thing regarding the war. Russia was, and still is, the agressor, and should not be allowed to lob off territories who's residents don't even want to seceed (I don't care about Crimea).

Still, doesn't mean I will switch off my brain and mindlessly point the finger at them for everything.

It's pretty naive to take the statements of Ukrainian government officials on something of this quality completely at face value. As if they are people who would never say something untruthful for purpose of getting a short-term and/or long-term advantage against their foes? Ukrainian politicians, like politicians everywhere, bend the truth as needed to try to get what they want.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1574862655067660295?t=9HVMAfxpORbr0D_JL...

The Black Shirts don't want a bunch of Slavs resettling on Roman lands. That much we can be sure of. There can be bad motives for doing good things. 

Or, maybe, it's genuine.

And you're just spiteful because the color you don't like won an election in a country you don't live in.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?    

Why the hell should I be able to explain Putin's thought processes? The man started a war that he apparently can't win.

I pretty much expected you to shirk the question, because you know it doesn't add up.  

Starting a war in the past that you believe Putin currently cannot win is the worst excuse for not coming up with a thought process, because Putin and Russian Leadership clearly expressed (thought) they could win.  Almost everyone thought they could win until Ukraine pushed them back with NATO weapons.  There's also 8+ years of history that explains the rationale for Russia's invasion.  You found a way to come up with  silliest example possible to demonstrate that you were unable to conceive of a logical reason for Putin to blow-up his geopolitically strategic pipeline.  

Yes, it is true that the Russians believed that they could win the war. Apparently, they were wrong.

So they are capable of making mistakes and stupid decisions.

The rest of your post consists of a load of chest-thumping that I'm going to ignore here.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1574862655067660295?t=9HVMAfxpORbr0D_JL...

The Black Shirts don't want a bunch of Slavs resettling on Roman lands. That much we can be sure of. There can be bad motives for doing good things.  

Or, maybe, it's genuine.

And you're just spiteful because the color you don't like won an election in a country you don't live in.

That doesn’t mean it’s not true. You know what though? Just like with Poland, I’m OK with that. We agree with what is the #1 problem right now. If after the war, Ukraine pushes in an Azov-like direction, I’m not going to be happy about that either. There might be Nazis on both sides(Zelensky is not one of them..quite the opposite, actually) but one of them has nukes.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63044747

"Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak said the damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 was "an act of aggression" towards the EU.

He added that Russia wanted to cause pre-winter panic and urged the EU to increase military support for Ukraine."

""Gas leak from NS-1 [Nord Stream 1] is nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards the EU. Russia wants to destabilise the economic situation in Europe and cause pre-winter panic," Ukraine's Mr Podolyak tweeted in English."

Anton Herashchenko, current official advisor and a former deputy minister at the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, posted a pic of a UA diver and claimed UA responsibility in a post on his official Telegram.

Not long after he deleted the post (probably after getting flak from higher-ups).

This does not change a single thing regarding the war. Russia was, and still is, the aggressor, and should not be allowed to lob off territories whose residents don't even want to secede (I don't care about Crimea).

Still, doesn't mean I will switch off my brain and mindlessly point the finger at them for everything.

If you read all my posts on the issue very carefully, you may notice that I never actually blamed Russia for the pipeline disruptions. I was merely questioning that America is blamed for it without any hard evidence to support it and that Russia is ruled out as the perpetrator without any hard evidence to support it either. It is you who is prematurely jumping on a wagon here and now you seem to projecting it onto people who disagree with you on the issue.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Wise_old_Dan/status/1574862547429236758?s=20&t=BoZKitdr3...

[Hollywood]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?   

Why the hell should I be able to explain Putin's thought processes? The man started a war that he apparently can't win.

The pipeline being blown up does nothing but assist US designs. Only a small number of people are able to sabotage the pipeline; presently, everything points to America doing this and not Russia.

The Russians, if they were to sabotage the pipeline, would most likely do so after the winter was over, not now. There is a method to their madness.

NS1 has been shut down and NS2 was incomplete. They aren't valuable to Russia anymore.

They in fact were. They had long-term value and gave the Russians more avenues to act. The blowing up of these pipelines corners Russia still further.

My brother, most people here are not critical thinkers when it comes to "their side".

So not only is the UA claiming responsibility (high level officials), but Poles are also thanking the US for the sabotage. To top it all off, this is very bad for Russia, as now people can't protest for NS2 to be opened when they start sliding into poverty due to insane prices. In essence, this means Europe can't negotiate with Russia even if it wanted to now.

We need to stop trying lol

Exactly  It's seems pretty obvious that a NATO Partner would blow-up the pipeline.  It had been a geopolitical weakness for European Leaders that were expressing their willingness to endlessly deepen the economic struggles of their people for as long as Ukraine needed support.  The action clearly solves the problem, and blaming Russia to reaffirm the narrative.  The timing of the event with the referendums is also a bit suspicious.  

And I'm not even trying. Isn't it just fun to see people climb to new levels of absurdity in order to justify their rationale for believing the Russians are automatically responsible for every unfortunate, awful, or controversial event. The media and Ukrainians tried blaming Russians for shelling their own positions at the Zap Power Plant for over month, and somehow members thought that was more realistic than the Ukrainians shelling it. Then the Ukrainians admitted to shelling the NUCLEAR plant, because Russians were firing artillery from nearby positions.  At what point does one stop reaching for new fantasies to justify a single falsehood?

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/Wise_old_Dan/status/1574862547429236758?s=20&t=BoZKitdr3...

I guess the point that woman tweeting the photos was making is that all the Russian Soldiers are menacing 65+ year-old Men that fall asleep while on duty, but it's clear to anyone with a brain that those three photos are staged at some location, and the fourth photo of women legitimately crying at some other location was added to give it more credibility.  LOL

[Middle-aged Europe]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?   

Why the hell should I be able to explain Putin's thought processes? The man started a war that he apparently can't win.

The pipeline being blown up does nothing but assist US designs. Only a small number of people are able to sabotage the pipeline; presently, everything points to America doing this and not Russia.

The Russians, if they were to sabotage the pipeline, would most likely do so after the winter was over, not now. There is a method to their madness.

NS1 has been shut down and NS2 was incomplete. They aren't valuable to Russia anymore.

They in fact were. They had long-term value and gave the Russians more avenues to act. The blowing up of these pipelines corners Russia still further.

My brother, most people here are not critical thinkers when it comes to "their side".

So not only is the UA claiming responsibility (high level officials), but Poles are also thanking the US for the sabotage. To top it all off, this is very bad for Russia, as now people can't protest for NS2 to be opened when they start sliding into poverty due to insane prices. In essence, this means Europe can't negotiate with Russia even if it wanted to now.

We need to stop trying lol

Exactly  It's seems pretty obvious that a NATO Partner would blow-up the pipeline.  It had been a geopolitical weakness for European Leaders that were expressing their willingness to endlessly deepen the economic struggles of their people for as long as Ukraine needed support.  The action clearly solves the problem, and blaming Russia to reaffirm the narrative.  The timing of the event with the referendums is also a bit suspicious.  

And I'm not even trying. Isn't it just fun to see people climb to new levels of absurdity in order to justify their rationale for believing the Russians are automatically responsible for every unfortunate, awful, or controversial event. The media and Ukrainians tried blaming Russians for shelling their own positions at the Zap Power Plant for over month, and somehow members thought that was more realistic than the Ukrainians shelling it. Then the Ukrainians admitted to shelling the NUCLEAR plant, because Russians were firing artillery from nearby positions.  At what point does one stop reaching for new fantasies to justify a single falsehood?

It just doesn't strike me as particularly realistic that "a NATO partner" would blow up the pipeline, simply for the reason that you would need to successfully keep that a secret for all eternity because if it ever came out it could threaten the very existence of the alliance. That seems like a very high risk operation, a gamble that could potentially backfire tremendously. That wouldn't strike me as a particularly sound decision. Actually, it would be in Russia's best interest if a "NATO partner" blew up the pipeline and then someone (maybe Russia itself) makes it public.

All in all, that just doesn't seem like a thing that happens in the real world.

[ꙮ]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

On the other hand, Anton Geraschenko (UA official), claimed UA is responsible, then deleted the post.

When the US military conducts secret sabotage operations they typically inform the President, the Vice President, the joint chiefs, and all the Polish MEPs, so this leak is pretty believable.

In all seriousness I could see either side doing it. Russia wasn’t using the pipelines at this point anyway, so attacking the pipeline allows them to blame the west/US and potentially hurt their international position. On the other hand, attacking the pipeline does prevent Russia from reversing course with regards to gas. I just don’t know if the US would take such direct action in the conflict. Everything so far has been weapons supply or intelligence sharing.

[Person Man]

Polish MEP outing the US as the Nordstream saboteurs lol

https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915

This is if you take his claim of knowledge at face value.

I mean I could also go on Twitter and state that it was Bill Gates.

True, but you can hardly come up with a motive for Russia doing it, unless they also blow other non RU pipes.

(UA official also claimed responsibility before deleting the post)

Why not?

What's the Russian motive for blowing up the pipeline right before winter?    

Why the hell should I be able to explain Putin's thought processes? The man started a war that he apparently can't win.

The pipeline being blown up does nothing but assist US designs. Only a small number of people are able to sabotage the pipeline; presently, everything points to America doing this and not Russia.

The Russians, if they were to sabotage the pipeline, would most likely do so after the winter was over, not now. There is a method to their madness.

NS1 has been shut down and NS2 was incomplete. They aren't valuable to Russia anymore.

They in fact were. They had long-term value and gave the Russians more avenues to act. The blowing up of these pipelines corners Russia still further.

My brother, most people here are not critical thinkers when it comes to "their side".

So not only is the UA claiming responsibility (high level officials), but Poles are also thanking the US for the sabotage. To top it all off, this is very bad for Russia, as now people can't protest for NS2 to be opened when they start sliding into poverty due to insane prices. In essence, this means Europe can't negotiate with Russia even if it wanted to now.

We need to stop trying lol

Exactly  It's seems pretty obvious that a NATO Partner would blow-up the pipeline.  It had been a geopolitical weakness for European Leaders that were expressing their willingness to endlessly deepen the economic struggles of their people for as long as Ukraine needed support.  The action clearly solves the problem, and blaming Russia to reaffirm the narrative.  The timing of the event with the referendums is also a bit suspicious.  

And I'm not even trying. Isn't it just fun to see people climb to new levels of absurdity in order to justify their rationale for believing the Russians are automatically responsible for every unfortunate, awful, or controversial event. The media and Ukrainians tried blaming Russians for shelling their own positions at the Zap Power Plant for over month, and somehow members thought that was more realistic than the Ukrainians shelling it. Then the Ukrainians admitted to shelling the NUCLEAR plant, because Russians were firing artillery from nearby positions.  At what point does one stop reaching for new fantasies to justify a single falsehood?

It just doesn't strike me as particularly realistic that "a NATO partner" would blow up the pipeline, simply for the reason that you would need to successfully keep that a secret for all eternity because if it ever came out it could threaten the very existence of the alliance. That seems like a very high risk operation, a gamble that could potentially backfire tremendously. That wouldn't strike me as a particularly sound decision. Actually, it would be in Russia's best interest if a "NATO partner" blew up the pipeline and then someone (maybe Russia itself) makes it public.

All in all, that just doesn't seem like a thing that happens in the real world.

Does it matter? No matter what the truth is, each party will keep believing what they want to believe. How about we all just say it was God and move on?

[Logical]

Lyman will be liberated by tomorrow at the earliest. Russians in the area are effed.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1574880755754344462

[NOVA Green]

So since apparently one of the "Hot Topics" of the day has to do with the "sabotage" of a couple Russian owned Natural Gas Pipelines, naturally got to check in to see what my "Old Mate" Sutton has to say on the topic.

We still don't know "who dunnit", but in theory we now have a couple possibilities floating around.

Here's a link to his original thread, where he postulates in theory had Russia carried out the sabotage mission would likely be either divers or AUVs.

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1574750304570073088?s=20&t=GKitl_h5k...

Now we have his latest update:

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1574879207603183623?s=20&t=GKitl_h5k...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

At least this particular batch is getting more than three days’ training, but this speech is brutally honest.

https://www.twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1574906007414767619