Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Frodo]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1566113531606466561

The objective of this counteroffensive presumably is to trap the Russians in Kherson, not push them out.  The fact they have been reinforced in prior weeks is good news -that means when they are eventually forced to surrender en masse when their supplies inevitably run out, that's more soldiers Putin is going to find hard to replace. With the Russian army so decimated and weakened, that in turn will make the retaking of Ukrainian territory east of the river that much easier.

[Badger]

For now Russia can supply their army on the west bank of the Dniepr with barges and pontoons but if things go terribly wrong for them there they will have nowhere to run. The Russians will be forced to leave a great deal of materiel and men stranded in Kherson.

Fingers crossed!

[Badger]

I'm not sure how the Russians thought they could take over a country with people willing to do this:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1566034579848413185?s=20&t=ITlpdEtcws...

Solva Ukraine!

[Hollywood]

There are some new videos coming from the Kherson Front from Russian Aerial Cameras.  The first video is actually from a Ukrainian Soldier showing the evacuation of dead and grievously injured soldiers.  Both the Russian and Ukrainian Militaries acknowledged that Ukraine has progressed through the three bridgeheads near Lozove, and Ukraine did so due to cover provided by small forests.  The Russians aren't worried about it.  As soon as the Ukrainians move their armored vehicles into the open plains and steppes, Russian artillery and aerial bombardments are hitting Ukrainians up and down the segment. They are attempting to blow the bridgeheads and cut the Ukrainians off from the North.  If Ukraine has plans to initiate a larger offensive on Kherson, they need to do it before the Russians neutralize this segment in Lozove.
https://rumble.com/v1ifrib-hows-the-counter-offensive-going-khokhols.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqlx-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqmr-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqop-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqnb-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

[Person Man]

I'm not sure how the Russians thought they could take over a country with people willing to do this:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1566034579848413185?s=20&t=ITlpdEtcws...

TeraChad!

[Omega21]

70,000 protesters take to the streets in Prague

For weeks, the right and left have been mobilizing for a “hot autumn” with demonstrations against rising energy prices. In Prague, communists and right-wing extremists were successful with their calls: around 70,000 people protested against the government's Ukraine policy on Saturday.

According to the police, around 70,000 people gathered at the rally under the motto "The Czech Republic First" on central Wenceslas Square to demonstrate against inflation driven by the energy crisis, corona vaccinations and the admission of migrants.

The demonstrators called for the resignation of Prime Minister Petr Fiala 's centre-right government , which has only been in office since December. "The best for the Ukrainians and two sweaters for us," read one banner. The government was thus accused of supporting Ukraine with sanctions against Russia, but not helping the Czechs, who were suffering from massively rising heating costs as a result.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article240849187/Massenproteste-In-Tschechien-zeigt-sich-was-Deutschland-bevorstehen-koennte.html

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are some new videos coming from the Kherson Front from Russian Aerial Cameras.  The first video is actually from a Ukrainian Soldier showing the evacuation of dead and grievously injured soldiers.  Both the Russian and Ukrainian Militaries acknowledged that Ukraine has progressed through the three bridgeheads near Lozove, and Ukraine did so due to cover provided by small forests.  The Russians aren't worried about it.  As soon as the Ukrainians move their armored vehicles into the open plains and steppes, Russian artillery and aerial bombardments are hitting Ukrainians up and down the segment. They are attempting to blow the bridgeheads and cut the Ukrainians off from the North.  If Ukraine has plans to initiate a larger offensive on Kherson, they need to do it before the Russians neutralize this segment in Lozove.
https://rumble.com/v1ifrib-hows-the-counter-offensive-going-khokhols.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqlx-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqmr-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqop-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqnb-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

What options do you see the Ukrainians having here re: Lozove?
It would make sense if the open plains work more to the Russians' advantage than forests, though HIMARS should reduce any disparities on that front.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm not sure how the Russians thought they could take over a country with people willing to do this:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1566034579848413185?s=20&t=ITlpdEtcws...

If my church had saints, this guy should be canonized as one.

[NOVA Green]

Very informative read from a Ukrainian journalist who lived in Kherson City until a week or so back when he left about his involvement in underground resistance movement and the GUR.

https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/hersonskiy-zhurnalist-kostyantin-rizhenko-pro-okupaciyu-hersona-interv-yu-nv-novini-ukrajini-50267149.html

So apparently what is left of Atlas has no commentary whatsoever regarding the live account of a journalist in KC, who joined the armed resistance against Russian Occupation?

Suspect most of Atlas are too lazy to click on links, and like most Millennials need some content a bit more visual in style?

Ok-- will likely attempt quotes tomorrow from the articles in question, for what appears to be essentially a community heavily impacted by conditions such as attention-deficit-disorder...

No picture, no text quotes... basically ignore...

Whatever....

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very informative read from a Ukrainian journalist who lived in Kherson City until a week or so back when he left about his involvement in underground resistance movement and the GUR.

https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/hersonskiy-zhurnalist-kostyantin-rizhenko-pro-okupaciyu-hersona-interv-yu-nv-novini-ukrajini-50267149.html

So apparently what is left of Atlas has no commentary whatsoever regarding the live account of a journalist in KC, who joined the armed resistance against Russian Occupation?

Suspect most of Atlas are too lazy to click on links, and like most Millennials need some content a bit more visual in style?

Ok-- will likely attempt quotes tomorrow from the articles in question, for what appears to be essentially a community heavily impacted by conditions such as attention-deficit-disorder...

No picture, no text quotes... basically ignore...

Whatever....

It's very interesting. I've been a bit swamped lately though. I'll check this out later tonight.

[Hollywood]

There are some new videos coming from the Kherson Front from Russian Aerial Cameras.  The first video is actually from a Ukrainian Soldier showing the evacuation of dead and grievously injured soldiers.  Both the Russian and Ukrainian Militaries acknowledged that Ukraine has progressed through the three bridgeheads near Lozove, and Ukraine did so due to cover provided by small forests.  The Russians aren't worried about it.  As soon as the Ukrainians move their armored vehicles into the open plains and steppes, Russian artillery and aerial bombardments are hitting Ukrainians up and down the segment. They are attempting to blow the bridgeheads and cut the Ukrainians off from the North.  If Ukraine has plans to initiate a larger offensive on Kherson, they need to do it before the Russians neutralize this segment in Lozove.
https://rumble.com/v1ifrib-hows-the-counter-offensive-going-khokhols.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqlx-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqmr-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqop-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqnb-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

What options do you see the Ukrainians having here re: Lozove?
It would make sense if the open plains work more to the Russians' advantage than forests, though HIMARS should reduce any disparities on that front.

The HIMARS are not used for repeated and sustained artillery bombardments, particularly convoys and infantry that are moving across the battlefield.  They require pre-determined targets as opposed to moving targets, and need to mobilized to covered positions once fired so the enemy can’t locate them.  The problem with HIMARS is that they take too much time to fire, and it’s difficult to make operational fire corrections.  The Ukrainians simply don’t have a lot of artillery that can promptly direct divided warheads towards moving targets via UAV information.  The Russians clearly have these types of UAV assisted Artillery systems as demonstrated by the videos I posted. 

I don’t see any clear options for Ukraine.  The problem is that they lack Air Support, Anti-Aircraft defense systems, and artillery.  The HIMARS are great for hitting supply-lines and stationary Russian targets, but they aren’t able reduce the huge disadvantage the VSU faces in open field combat.  These large Ukrainian convoys are sitting ducks, and they seem to be getting funneled into kill zones. 

In sum, it is simply easier to defend than it is to take territory, and the VSU doesn’t even appear to have the offensive weaponry to take on the Russians.  The Ukrainians had no element of surprise, because they announced their intentions to launch this counter-offensive a couple of months.  They are undoubtedly taking massive casualties, as well as lost a significant number of land vehicles.  I simply don’t have an answer for them.    If they stop the offensive, it’s a big win for Russia.  If they continue, they risk losing several thousand additional troops with slim odds of success (whatever that looks like). 

[Lord Halifax]

If they stop the offensive, it’s a big win for Russia.  If they continue, they risk losing several thousand additional troops with slim odds of success (whatever that looks like). 

it's not a big win if Russia is cut off on the west side of Dnipro, the decisive factor is how long Russia remains able to resupply its forces. 

"Success" would be getting close enough to Kherson that an uprising within the city could succeed.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/Italo81740918/status/1565942324546490370

[Hollywood]

If they stop the offensive, it’s a big win for Russia.  If they continue, they risk losing several thousand additional troops with slim odds of success (whatever that looks like). 

it's not a big win if Russia is cut off on the west side of Dnipro, the decisive factor is how long Russia remains able to resupply its forces. 

"Success" would be getting close enough to Kherson that an uprising within the city could succeed.

If the Offensive Stopped, there would be no more Ukrainian advancements.  The Ukrainians wouldn't be able to cut off supplies if the stopped, right?  Would that not be a big win for Russia?  I imagine it would be a psychological hit for Ukraine given that they've boasted about this campaign for two months. 

If the Ukrainians can get close enough to spark an uprising, I would consider that a huge success.  From what I can gather, they are having a tough time making any meaningful progress over the open fields south of the Ingulets River, as well as the plains to N and NW of Kherson. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are some new videos coming from the Kherson Front from Russian Aerial Cameras.  The first video is actually from a Ukrainian Soldier showing the evacuation of dead and grievously injured soldiers.  Both the Russian and Ukrainian Militaries acknowledged that Ukraine has progressed through the three bridgeheads near Lozove, and Ukraine did so due to cover provided by small forests.  The Russians aren't worried about it.  As soon as the Ukrainians move their armored vehicles into the open plains and steppes, Russian artillery and aerial bombardments are hitting Ukrainians up and down the segment. They are attempting to blow the bridgeheads and cut the Ukrainians off from the North.  If Ukraine has plans to initiate a larger offensive on Kherson, they need to do it before the Russians neutralize this segment in Lozove.
https://rumble.com/v1ifrib-hows-the-counter-offensive-going-khokhols.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqlx-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqmr-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqop-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html
https://rumble.com/v1icqnb-09.03.2022-chronicle-of-military-operations-russia-ukraine.html

What options do you see the Ukrainians having here re: Lozove?
It would make sense if the open plains work more to the Russians' advantage than forests, though HIMARS should reduce any disparities on that front.

The HIMARS are not used for repeated and sustained artillery bombardments, particularly convoys and infantry that are moving across the battlefield.  They require pre-determined targets as opposed to moving targets, and need to mobilized to covered positions once fired so the enemy can’t locate them.  The problem with HIMARS is that they take too much time to fire, and it’s difficult to make operational fire corrections.  The Ukrainians simply don’t have a lot of artillery that can promptly direct divided warheads towards moving targets via UAV information.  The Russians clearly have these types of UAV assisted Artillery systems as demonstrated by the videos I posted.  

I don’t see any clear options for Ukraine.  The problem is that they lack Air Support, Anti-Aircraft defense systems, and artillery.  The HIMARS are great for hitting supply-lines and stationary Russian targets, but they aren’t able reduce the huge disadvantage the VSU faces in open field combat.  These large Ukrainian convoys are sitting ducks, and they seem to be getting funneled into kill zones.  

In sum, it is simply easier to defend than it is to take territory, and the VSU doesn’t even appear to have the offensive weaponry to take on the Russians.  The Ukrainians had no element of surprise, because they announced their intentions to launch this counter-offensive a couple of months.  They are undoubtedly taking massive casualties, as well as lost a significant number of land vehicles.  I simply don’t have an answer for them.    If they stop the offensive, it’s a big win for Russia.  If they continue, they risk losing several thousand additional troops with slim odds of success (whatever that looks like).  

Hmm.
I guess I've placed too much hope on HIMARS without understanding their limitations.
It would make sense that the Russians (and the Ukrainians too), with their artillery-driven military philosophies, would have a wider range of rocket systems than most other militaries. Iirc, HIMARS is an American missile system. It probably saw usage against fixed targets, like enemy bases, during the previous twenty years...
Ukraine should use its HIMARS for what they are best at (and what they have continued to use them on) - bridges, rail, Russian HQs, things that can't move easily...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1566385878599172096
Looks like Ukraine is taking advantage of Russia moving all their resources to Kherson

[Hindsight was 2020]

Also a great thread on what Ukraine seems to be doing in Kherson
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1566326321763975168
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1566326328743321600
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1566326336733552641
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1566326355356270594
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1566326373832183808

[Torie]

I know this article is behind the NYT paywall, which is too bad because it has a series of just riveting images of destruction and pathos. It basically says the Ukraine news clampdown on its Kherson campaign has created a media vacuum for Russia to make undocumented claims of Ukraine's forces being routed. Presumably that is for local consumption.

One bit did catch my eye regarding the new recruits being rounded up to get the campaign in the east going again:

“'Images of the 3rd Army Corps elements have shown the volunteers to be physically unfit and old,” an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War said.' ”

One would think Russia would have more control over the messaging than that. If need be, they could just put up images of Hollywood extras as it were. If one is going to make phony assertions of Ukraine's butt being kicked in the Kherson push, one might as well also use phony images.

"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/04/world/ukraine-russia-war-news

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1566435358492999682

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-04/energy-crisis-europe-s-aluminum-smelters-are-struggling-to-survive

"Metal Plants Feeding Europe’s Factories Face an Existential Crisis"

Big victory for USA aluminum producers but really bad news for EU industry which will be saddled with higher input costs

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1566435358492999682

Great example of their social media game being adept in giving people hope about Ukraine's position.
Let's hope they can back up this optimism with long-term action.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very informative read from a Ukrainian journalist who lived in Kherson City until a week or so back when he left about his involvement in underground resistance movement and the GUR.

https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/hersonskiy-zhurnalist-kostyantin-rizhenko-pro-okupaciyu-hersona-interv-yu-nv-novini-ukrajini-50267149.html

So apparently what is left of Atlas has no commentary whatsoever regarding the live account of a journalist in KC, who joined the armed resistance against Russian Occupation?

Suspect most of Atlas are too lazy to click on links, and like most Millennials need some content a bit more visual in style?

Ok-- will likely attempt quotes tomorrow from the articles in question, for what appears to be essentially a community heavily impacted by conditions such as attention-deficit-disorder...

No picture, no text quotes... basically ignore...

Whatever....

It's very interesting. I've been a bit swamped lately though. I'll check this out later tonight.

So I've now read through it all, earliest occasion I could give the thing the time and focus it deserves.
I will probably be the only person to give such an assessment of what he said in-thread, but then again, I have loads of free time. Reading it is no problem, you can simply left-click and use Google Translate (same trick I use a lot on the Japanese part of the internet). I am summarizing each question with different words and quotation marks.
Anyway:

"how is your friend doing"
He doesn't precisely know how his friend is doing. To be expected. Fog of war can extend to the lowest levels of the human element in war.

"what done next?"
There is a clear sense of betrayal in his words. I guess that is how it feels when the government just falls apart, as Ukraine calculated it was impossible to maintain its presence on the ground. "Anti-tank hedgehog" is difficult to understand in its totality, but I assume it must be an anti-tank weapon akin to caltrops.
(Turns out I was right. These are also called Czech hedgehog.)

"March 1"
This man is a fairly important figure in the local resistance, from the looks of it. His role in organizing a resistance in a vacuum seems fairly instrumental in helping people figure out what to do in resisting the Russians.

"Wave of protests"
People refusing humanitarian help from the Russians. It seems very realistic that at least at this stage people would turn their back on Russian aid. The Russians follow a careful approach in interactions with occupied people - setting expectations a certain way early on. The Putinist playbook is apathy - they want apathy. And there's a very clear intent to discourage civil activity.

"What caused Kherson departures"
Makes sense that the more people who don't like the way the Russians do it would leave the more they see it happening. Not surprising to me.

"Kherson went underground"
A lot to unpack here. A lot of what he said made some level of intuitive sense to me. It makes sense a (ex-)civilian resistance would emphasize making a good map and have to navigate a messy situation on the ground.
Also, here's a toast to VPNs - key in letting people escape the grasp of mighty authorities who want to control the internet activity of ordinary people.

"Safety, Telegram channel, et cetera"
Fascinating window into intelligence gathering. It's also a reminder of how brutal this stuff gets by necessity. Liquidation. Killing. All that stuff. The Russians have had some level of difficulty dealing with this...

"Why did you leave when you did"
It is very natural a man like him is going to have to consider leaving, given what Kherson is right now. Also natural he cannot say everything about how he conducted his safety checks on his own person. But he feels fortunate that the Russian military is not the most, uh, diploma'd. In the end, he left Kherson because it was harder and harder to hide in there.

"What is the situation in Kherson"
Ukrainian propaganda, he explains, got people too hopeful, when reality turns out not to reach that standard. Played into the Russians' hands. It is hard to explain the nuance of how military success is achieved to people who want simple goals. Maybe it would have been better to say "no matter how bad or good it may be now, the Russians will be kicked out of our land". But the Ukrainians made choices and cannot take them back. They were not necessarily bad ones either, it must be said. There are few completely perfect things in life and that applies to the choices we make too. It must be said that both Russia and Ukraine have said grandiose things in this war - Russia has said it was back forever, after all...

"Why has a referendum not happened"
Simple. The situation is unclear, in Kherson city. The Russians are afraid of looking weak if the city falls in the hands of Ukraine again. Indeed, apathy is strongly helped by the idea that doing X will change nothing. For Russia to do a referendum before the situation is ready would be akin to driving a car without an engine safely being placed in - it makes things so that it can easily blow up in your face.

"How do they behave in Kherson"
Mainly they are looting and the higher-ups know that the volume of resistance is considerable. Here, though, I'm not entirely sure how much I trust what he says, because this could be domestic consumption designed to keep morale up. If things are how he is says, more broadly, whatever the Russians do, their main goal is taking, and the city will be severely scarred mentally by the time things are over.

I'd like to thank NOVA Green for giving us this.

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1566435358492999682

Great example of their social media game being adept in giving people hope about Ukraine's position.
Let's hope they can back up this optimism with long-term action.

The VSU actually made some progress on the NE segment of the Kherson Front. They fought the Russians tooth-and-nail for Vysokopillia (part of contested area) before the Russians withdrew to the South.  Vysokopillia is one of three towns that fortify a high point that Russians use to bombard Ukrainian forces moving south from their garrison in Kryvyi Rih.  The Ukrainians must also take Arkhanheiskie (Russian zone) before funneling through open field lying between the Inhulets River and some canals.  They will also have to control Myroliubivka (contested area protect by mines to the east) in order to protect the offensive.  

Too early to say whether these are substantive gains.  I think the Ukrainian forces are going to run into the same problems they had at the Lozove when they have to cross open terrain.  The VSU boasted that they had liberated four towns/settlements as the Russians withdrew from their positions.  Russian Troops swung around and launched a counter-offensives to protect the supply-lines, and reinforcements from the other direction wedged (and partially encircle) the VSU into a kill zone for their aerial and artillery bombardments.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1566435358492999682

Great example of their social media game being adept in giving people hope about Ukraine's position.
Let's hope they can back up this optimism with long-term action.

The VSU actually made some progress on the NE segment of the Kherson Front. They fought the Russians tooth-and-nail for Vysokopillia (part of contested area) before the Russians withdrew to the South.  Vysokopillia is one of three towns that fortify a high point that Russians use to bombard Ukrainian forces moving south from their garrison in Kryvyi Rih.  The Ukrainians must also take Arkhanheiskie (Russian zone) before funneling through open field lying between the Inhulets River and some canals.  They will also have to control Myroliubivka (contested area protect by mines to the east) in order to protect the offensive.  

Too early to say whether these are substantive gains.  I think the Ukrainian forces are going to run into the same problems they had at the Lozove when they have to cross open terrain.  The VSU boasted that they had liberated four towns/settlements as the Russians withdrew from their positions.  Russian Troops swung around and launched a counter-offensives to protect the supply-lines, and reinforcements from the other direction wedged (and partially encircle) the VSU into a kill zone for their aerial and artillery bombardments.

Seems to me that Vysokopillia is more elevated than most other areas in and around Kherson. Makes sense that the most elevated areas would be hugely strategically important.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1566550046379839488?s=20&t=uxem_yD...