Italy 2013: The official thread

[Leftbehind]

Yeah, I read that he takes the casual dress thing to a whole new level. Not wanting to wear a tie during the debate? Come on. Now it just seems like an act. Though Sky forcing him to wear one seems just as silly.

Right, because it's monumentally unreasonable to choose not to wear a tie and resist against being forced to do so(!)

[Leftbehind]

Renzi is NOT a centrist.
He is a center-left candidate,who supports biological testament,ius soli,civil unions and adoption for homosexual couples...

Your standard liberals support those.

[Leftbehind]

Latest poll by German firm Wahlfieber...

PD - 32.4%
M5S - 15%
VTR (Monti) - 14.2%
PdL - 13.3%
SeL - 6.9%
LN - 4.5%
Others - 15%

It would have been nice if "Others" was broken down to see where UdC, IdV, etc. stand.

Wahlfieber isn't a poll though. It's the German version of Intrade.

Oops! It was listed in the polling section of the Wiki page. Someone might want to remove that...

Yeah, they should remove it. It's kinda strange that they think a German company would poll an Italian election ... Unless this Wahlfieber company actually did (?) Maybe they commissioned a poll ? I have to check this ... Do you have the link, Phil ?

I did find it odd that a German company would poll the election. Then again, considering the impact that this could have on Europe, it isn't that crazy.

http://wahlfieber.de/de_du/markt/ITA-2013--parlamentswahlen-in-italien-2013/

YouGov have polled the French election.

[Leftbehind]

I'd recommend going back to the first page; Antonio furnished us with a fair bit of info then.

[Leftbehind]

the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

From socialist to social democrat though. I can't see a similar movement happening the opposite way (however much I'd like it to), even less so to the PDL or Monti lists - well maybe the latter, but I'd be surprised to see many leftists opting for his vision!

[Leftbehind]

What's SEL done today to lose your vote, are you saying you'd vote for them if the election was today?

[Leftbehind]

Fair enough - the rise of IU and BE, and SEL holding significant influence are something I'd wish for, so I can see why we wouldn't be voting in the same manner.

[Leftbehind]

Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     

I'd vote SEL anyway (as I've said in the past), but this would be a powerful argument for me.

[Leftbehind]

It's weird how the thread's titled "now it's four and Grillo's rebounding" on the index, and yet in this subforum it's just regular old Italy 2013: The official thread.

[Leftbehind]

So that's why.

[Leftbehind]

Actually, isn't there some speculation that one of the reasons the Labour Party suffered a stunning unexpected loss in the 1970 UK election was that people were in a foul mood after England lost the World Cup?

In the 1970 UK general election, there was a last-minute swing from Labor to the Conservatives, who ended up winning; it's thought that this is because the election took place shortly after England lost a significant match to West Germany during the 1970 World Cup (furthermore, it's thought England only lost because goalkeeper Gordon Banks was forced not to play due to a stomach illness).

Sometimes history rests on the seemingly insignificant.

Speculation perhaps, but it's the first I've heard of it and nowhere near as decisively regarded a factor as Vosem's post makes out (can't recall it even being mentioned in the BBC coverage of the 1970's GE that was repeated recently). I'd think, far more meaningful, were the dire set of balance of payment figures that came out during the campaign, something the country had had been assured devaluation would solve. Oh and that's to say nothing of how accurate polling even was back then. Most polls were conducted by Gallup, Harris and NOC and beyond Harris (who haven't polled since Aug 2010) the others don't poll in the UK any longer, with Gallup having a shoddy reputation. Polling's came on a long way since then, with polls in the 1990's considered suspect (weighted incorrectly etc), let alone 1970.

[Leftbehind]

Complain about the victory of trolls and clowns here

[Leftbehind]

Renzi winning PD leadership from this would really be the cherry on a horrible cake for the Italian Left.

[Leftbehind]

Renzi winning PD leadership from this would really be the cherry on a horrible cake for the Italian Left.

Because Bersani was such a bold left-wing hero...

Neither was John Smith, but he was infinitely better than Blair, for instance. Didn't realise you were a Renzi supporter(!). 

[Leftbehind]

Syrup-tongued saviours tend not to keep very well once the bottle is opened.

That's my fear. Besides, if Renzi is all that, once leader he'll be much harder for an actual left-leaning candidate to replace than a member of the ambition-less old-guard.

[Leftbehind]

Laura Boldrini <=> Julia Gillard, anyone ?

What's with the drop in Grillo support in the last two polls posted by jaichind ? He seemed to top the race a few days before that.

Probably the threat of markets etc spooking some PDL voters back?

I can't see any resemblance to Gillard.

[Leftbehind]

Give us these fycking new elections!

I know, how long are they going to drag this out for? It was obvious on the night that there'd need to be be new elections; Bersani should've made nothing more than a polite attempt at forming a coalition and then announced that (predictable) failure and the need for new elections.

[Leftbehind]

I too get the impression that Phil is a secret admirer of Berlusconi, but won't dare admit it.

[Leftbehind]

I too get the impression that Phil is a secret admirer of Berlusconi, but won't dare admit it.

Yeah, that makes sense. I'm all about liking and defending only non-controversial figures.

By the way, for the longest time I was more of a Silvio fan (though I've been clear that I've always been more fascinated with Berlusconi than anything else. "OH NO!!! That's code for SUPPORTER!").

See my above paranthetical point when you want to talk about my "support" for Silvio not jiving with my admiration for Santorum.

Bottom line: the fact that this being made about me is pathetic. Stick to discussing what is going on politically in Italy, not who I may or may not support. And if anyone chooses to voice their support for someone you don't like, learn how to be an adult: accept it, discuss it respectfully if necessary and move on.

Look, I don't actually care about whether you like Berlusconi, but I think the fit you threw above does nothing to dispel the notion that you're ashamed to support him. I think you've read hostility in my post that wasn't there: this isn't a witch-hunt for Berlusconi supporters, just a sneaking suspicion said with a smile. I expect most right-wingers to support his coalition - I know most UK right-wingers would - so it's not a case of me not being able to stomach your support for him. There's just a hint of barely concealed glee in your posts about him that's difficult to overlook.

Also - AG said - there's a difference between supporting less-than-popular socons, and discredited corrupt buffoons like Berlusconi, so there's a very real reason why even deeply right-wing people are hesitant to show support for him.

[Leftbehind]

Deputy PM and Home Office: Angelino Alfano (PDL)
Economy: Fabrizio Saccomanni (director of Bank of Italy)
Development: Flavio Zanonato (PD)
Transports: Maurizio Lupi (PDL)
Health: Beatrice Lorenzin (PDL)
Justice: Anna Maria Cancellieri (Home Office Sec under Monti)
Work: Enrico Giovannini (National Statistics Institute President)
Education: Maria Chiara Carrozza (PD, Rector of a University)
Culture, Tourism: Massimo Bray (PD)
Agriculture: Nunzia di Girolamo (PDL)
Environment: Andrea Orlando (PD)
Foreign: Emma Bonino
Defence: Mario Mauro (Monti's List, former PDL)
EU Affairs: Enzo Monavero Milanesi (same position held under Monti)
Regional Affairs: Graziano Del Rio (PD)
Territorial Cohesion: Carlo Trigilia
Relationship with Parliamenet : Dario Franceschini (PD)
Reforms: Gaetano Quagliariello (PDL)
Integration: Cécile Kyenge Kashetu (PD)
Equal Rights, Youth, Sport: Josefa Idem (PD, former Olympic Gold)
Public Administraton: Giampiero D’Alia (UDC)

Under Secretary to the Presidency: Patroni Griffi (Public Administration Secretary under Monti)

[Leftbehind]

Probably SEL or Civil Revolution depending on how close the former remains to this monstrosity of a coalition.

[Leftbehind]

Berlusconi gets sentenced to 4 years for his media charges, but can still appeal to the Court of Cassation.

He'll probably force PD to pass a law to save his ass. These f**king idiots are f**kingly idiotic enough to go along.

On the slim chance PD have a shred of moral integrity, and don't, we'd then be looking at a collapse of this monstrosity of a coalition before it even began. It'd be absolutely toxic for their supporters, no? Surely self-preservation could force a moral stand?

[Leftbehind]

Recommended course of action if they do support Berlusconi:

[Leftbehind]

Have they f**king voted him out yet or what?

[Leftbehind]

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