Italy 2013: The official thread

[Keystone Phil]

"Love him or hate him" is exactly the philosophy I don't agree with. I have never hated nor loved him, he's a politician like others, who I won't vote. Too much importance has been given to any his littel gestures or word.

I wasn't saying those were the only choices. It's a phrase. I wanted to incorporate the extremes to get across the point that everyone can agree on his serious impact on the country. It's something you admit in that post. Rightly or wrongly or somewhere in between , that's the fact of the matter.

[Keystone Phil]

I just realized: the Milan Derby is on the first day of voting and Balotelli will be playing against his old club. This will come after Inter got fined for racist chants against Mario (even though he wasn't there) during their most recent match. Couldn't write a more perfect script for Silvio unless, of course, Milan loses.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What are the general news (aside from corruption scandals) on economic development in the individual regions? And how could this impact on voting for the House and the Senate?

Formigoni has also been indicted in Lombardia. Apart from that I can't say much, except that the economy sucks everywhere.

[DL]

I'm not sure what "comeback" anyone sees for Berlusconi. The last polls behind the embargo consistently showed his coalition of parties 5 or 6 points behind the left and the 20% or so that would vote PdL is essentiually the bedrock 20% of Italians who will always vote for the rightwing option come hell or high water.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm not sure what "comeback" anyone sees for Berlusconi. The last polls behind the embargo consistently showed his coalition of parties 5 or 6 points behind the left and the 20% or so that would vote PdL is essentiually the bedrock 20% of Italians who will always vote for the rightwing option come hell or high water.

You're right, the Right coalition hasn't gained that much ground in the past few months. It's more the left coalition that has been dwindling, from about 40% to now the low 30s.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

I'm not sure what "comeback" anyone sees for Berlusconi. The last polls behind the embargo consistently showed his coalition of parties 5 or 6 points behind the left and the 20% or so that would vote PdL is essentiually the bedrock 20% of Italians who will always vote for the rightwing option come hell or high water.

Yeah that's a good point. though I don't see how Berlusconi is still the conservative leader. they should have taken that from him right around the time of the fraud conviction.

[Tender Branson]

The Champions League game between AC Milan and Barcelona on Feb. 20 should be interesting.

Do you think a win by Milan will lead to a Right win in Lombardy, or will a win by Milan have nothing to do with a potential Right wing a few days later ?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

People are over-analysing the importance of sports on election results. I'm not sure wich is more silly, people thinking Scotland will vote for indipendance because they host a non-important sport-event the same year, or people thinking a Milan win will make people vote for Silvio.

Is there any election in the past 50 years in a Western Democracy that's is believed to have been determained by a single sports event?

Swing-voters might be idiots, but they're not that dumb.

[DL]

People are over-analysing the importance of sports on election results. I'm not sure wich is more silly, people thinking Scotland will vote for indipendance because they host a non-important sport-event the same year, or people thinking a Milan win will make people vote for Silvio.

Is there any election in the past 50 years in a Western Democracy that's is believed to have been determained by a single sports event?

Swing-voters might be idiots, but they're not that dumb.

Actually, isn't there some speculation that one of the reasons the Labour Party suffered a stunning unexpected loss in the 1970 UK election was that people were in a foul mood after England lost the World Cup?

[Keystone Phil]

The Champions League game between AC Milan and Barcelona on Feb. 20 should be interesting.

Do you think a win by Milan will lead to a Right win in Lombardy, or will a win by Milan have nothing to do with a potential Right wing a few days later ?

Yeah, that's big, too (ought to be an incredible few days of Calcio), but the derby is going to be huge and it absolutely could have political implications. A derby means other people in the region will be livid but those types have a burning hatred for Berlusconi already and were always going to turn out against him. Centrist or uneasy right leaning AC Milan fans might finally be pushed into Silvio's camp.

As for the post dismissing the comeback, the center-right isn't at "20% or so." They're at about 30% now.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, I don't think a Milan victory helps SB win nationally. Maybe boost him provincially a bit but that's it.

[Kitteh]

People are over-analysing the importance of sports on election results. I'm not sure wich is more silly, people thinking Scotland will vote for indipendance because they host a non-important sport-event the same year, or people thinking a Milan win will make people vote for Silvio.

Is there any election in the past 50 years in a Western Democracy that's is believed to have been determained by a single sports event?

Swing-voters might be idiots, but they're not that dumb.

Rugby had a very clear and definite impact on the New Zealand 2011 election.

[Vosem]

People are over-analysing the importance of sports on election results. I'm not sure wich is more silly, people thinking Scotland will vote for indipendance because they host a non-important sport-event the same year, or people thinking a Milan win will make people vote for Silvio.

Is there any election in the past 50 years in a Western Democracy that's is believed to have been determained by a single sports event?

In the 1970 UK general election, there was a last-minute swing from Labor to the Conservatives, who ended up winning; it's thought that this is because the election took place shortly after England lost a significant match to West Germany during the 1970 World Cup (furthermore, it's thought England only lost because goalkeeper Gordon Banks was forced not to play due to a stomach illness).

Sometimes history rests on the seemingly insignificant.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For those who are interested in serious issues, today was a new scandal-fest. Tons of arrests have been made in I think four unrelated affair. The TV anchor said there hadn't been so many arrests since the Mani Pulite days.

[RogueBeaver]

What sort of scandals? Nothing MP level presumably.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What sort of scandals? Nothing MP level presumably.

All sorts... There is the Formigoni thing, which of course annoys PdL (and Lega to a smaller extent), MPS which for some reason is being tied to PD, Finmeccanica which might hurt Monti and also possibly Lega, and many others. I'm only following these things distractly, because I'm a bit fed up with all these corruption scandals. Methinks abstention (and maybe M5S) will be the only one benefitting from all this.

[Keystone Phil]

So Monti is coming in fourth. Jeeze.

[RogueBeaver]

So Monti is coming in fourth. Jeeze.

A guess or something more concrete?

[Keystone Phil]

So Monti is coming in fourth. Jeeze.

A guess or something more concrete?

No, that's my prediction now. These scandals plus the M5S surge before the end of polling makes it seem inevitable.

By the way, does anyone know if it's just the publication of polling that's banned? I'd imagine the parties would be mighty pissed if they couldn't at least do private polling within two weeks of an election.

[Franknburger]

What sort of scandals? Nothing MP level presumably.

All sorts... There is the Formigoni thing, which of course annoys PdL (and Lega to a smaller extent), MPS which for some reason is being tied to PD, Finmeccanica which might hurt Monti and also possibly Lega, and many others. I'm only following these things distractly, because I'm a bit fed up with all these corruption scandals. Methinks abstention (and maybe M5S) will be the only one benefitting from all this.

What about this anti-corruption party (forgot about the name) that was always polling around 2-4%? Shouldn't the scandals help them making the threshold? And, if yes, could that have consequences for the Senate'

[Leftbehind]

Actually, isn't there some speculation that one of the reasons the Labour Party suffered a stunning unexpected loss in the 1970 UK election was that people were in a foul mood after England lost the World Cup?

In the 1970 UK general election, there was a last-minute swing from Labor to the Conservatives, who ended up winning; it's thought that this is because the election took place shortly after England lost a significant match to West Germany during the 1970 World Cup (furthermore, it's thought England only lost because goalkeeper Gordon Banks was forced not to play due to a stomach illness).

Sometimes history rests on the seemingly insignificant.

Speculation perhaps, but it's the first I've heard of it and nowhere near as decisively regarded a factor as Vosem's post makes out (can't recall it even being mentioned in the BBC coverage of the 1970's GE that was repeated recently). I'd think, far more meaningful, were the dire set of balance of payment figures that came out during the campaign, something the country had had been assured devaluation would solve. Oh and that's to say nothing of how accurate polling even was back then. Most polls were conducted by Gallup, Harris and NOC and beyond Harris (who haven't polled since Aug 2010) the others don't poll in the UK any longer, with Gallup having a shoddy reputation. Polling's came on a long way since then, with polls in the 1990's considered suspect (weighted incorrectly etc), let alone 1970.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The 1970 thing is nonsense. Everyone believes it, but it's nonsense. The 1966-1970 Labour government was (somewhat incredible to believe now given its many and manifest achievements) one of the most unpopular governments of the 20th century. A several points during that parliament, senior Party figures (and not just the usual panickers) were genuinely concerned at the prospect of a repeat of the 1931 election. Then in 1970 there was a 'remarkable' (to use the word chosen by one member of the cabinet in his memoirs) recovery in the government's polling numbers. What almost certainly happened was that the polling firms (and this was an industry still in its infancy in Britain in many respects) overestimated the scale of the Labour recovery; probably Labour was never genuinely ahead during the campaign.

[SPQR]

The Champions League game between AC Milan and Barcelona on Feb. 20 should be interesting.

Do you think a win by Milan will lead to a Right win in Lombardy, or will a win by Milan have nothing to do with a potential Right wing a few days later ?

Oh my...please stop overestimating football's impact on elections.

[SPQR]

Anyway,Finmeccanica's president, who was arrested this week,claimed last year that he "owes literally everything to Maroni",who is the Lega North secretary...

[Keystone Phil]

The Champions League game between AC Milan and Barcelona on Feb. 20 should be interesting.

Do you think a win by Milan will lead to a Right win in Lombardy, or will a win by Milan have nothing to do with a potential Right wing a few days later ?

Oh my...please stop overestimating football's impact on elections.

Spoken like a truly jealous Inter fan.