Italy 2013: The official thread

[Beet]

Sh_t.

[Keystone Phil]

Tecnè

Italia. Bene Comune - 32.9%
Center-right - 28.9%
M5S - 16.5%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.2%
Rivoluzione Civile - 5.1%
Others - 3.4%

Looks like Grillo's comments helped. Dear Lord.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What if 1994 strikes and Grillo wins?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What if 1994 strikes and Grillo wins?

He can't technically "win" since he doesn't have a coalition and thus doesn't qualify for the majority bonus. I have absolutely no idea what happens if an individual party comes ahead of all the coalitions. That would be a heck of a crazy situation to see, though. After all, Grillo doesn't even actually want to rule. His main plank is end representative democracy altogether and replace it with some fuzzy internet stuff nobody understands a sh*t about.

[Insula Dei]

What if 1994 strikes and Grillo wins?

He can't technically "win" since he doesn't have a coalition and thus doesn't qualify for the majority bonus. I have absolutely no idea what happens if an individual party comes ahead of all the coalitions. That would be a heck of a crazy situation to see, though. After all, Grillo doesn't even actually want to rule. His main plank is end representative democracy altogether and replace it with some fuzzy internet stuff nobody understands a sh*t about.

Wow, it's hard to understate how much of a joke Grillo really is.

On a completely unrelated note, whatever happened to UDEUR? Are they in the Third Pole? Do they even exist anymore?

[Keystone Phil]

What if 1994 strikes and Grillo wins?

He can't technically "win" since he doesn't have a coalition and thus doesn't qualify for the majority bonus. I have absolutely no idea what happens if an individual party comes ahead of all the coalitions. That would be a heck of a crazy situation to see, though. After all, Grillo doesn't even actually want to rule. His main plank is end representative democracy altogether and replace it with some fuzzy internet stuff nobody understands a sh*t about.

And remember that he personally can't win because of his criminal history.

Cue to the Berlusconi jokes...


And UDEUR now exists in Campania as UDEUR Populars for the South. It supposedly fell into the Third Pole a few years ago.

[Zuza]

Wikipedia states that UDEUR is now a part of Project South list which in turn is a part of Berlusconi's coalition.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is Demopolis biased? Their latest poll (made 01/31-02/01) has the left still 8 points ahead.

[Keystone Phil]

Is Demopolis biased? Their latest poll (made 01/31-02/01) has the left still 8 points ahead.

Do you mean EMG? The latest Demopolis I can find has the margin at six.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is Demopolis biased? Their latest poll (made 01/31-02/01) has the left still 8 points ahead.

Do you mean EMG? The latest Demopolis I can find has the margin at six.

Yeah, sorry, meant EMG.

For some reason I though la7's polls were conducted by Demopolis...

[Keystone Phil]

M5Surge

SWG from today...

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.6%
Center-right - 28.1%
M5S - 18%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.3%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.9%
Other - 2.1%


Lorien

Italia. Bene Comune - 35.2%
Center-right - 29.8%
M5S - 14.8%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.4%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.7%
Other - 2.1%

[Hash]

So calling for a terrorist attack on a democratic institution/parliament in Italy is a vote-winner? You never cease to amaze, Italy.

[minionofmidas]

What if 1994 strikes and Grillo wins?

Then we party like it's 1994.

[minionofmidas]

What if 1994 strikes and Grillo wins?

He can't technically "win" since he doesn't have a coalition and thus doesn't qualify for the majority bonus. I have absolutely no idea what happens if an individual party comes ahead of all the coalitions.

Are you sure of this? the (Italian) wiki just states "the coalition that wins the most votes" as if it were self-evident that no single list could beat the strongest coalition. I did find this stating "the list or coalition".

[Antonio the Sixth]

What if 1994 strikes and Grillo wins?

He can't technically "win" since he doesn't have a coalition and thus doesn't qualify for the majority bonus. I have absolutely no idea what happens if an individual party comes ahead of all the coalitions.

Are you sure of this? the (Italian) wiki just states "the coalition that wins the most votes" as if it were self-evident that no single list could beat the strongest coalition. I did find this stating "the list or coalition".

That would mean that a coalition getting less votes than the M5S alone would still win 54% of seats? The ridiculousness of Italy's electoral system just took a whole new proportion.

Ah wait, so Sole24Ore has a different interpretation? Interesting... Don't know how reliable that is. I hope the text of the law is available somewhere.

[minionofmidas]

That would mean that a coalition getting less votes than the M5S alone would still win 54% of seats? The ridiculousness of Italy's electoral system just took a whole new proportion.

I am reasonably certain that that is not the case. Either a list winning still gets the bonus, or there is no bonus. One or the other.

Also, if I read the Italian wiki correctly a party polling over 4% that is a member of a coalition polling below 10% still gets in? That could be relevant for Monti...

[Leftbehind]

It's weird how the thread's titled "now it's four and Grillo's rebounding" on the index, and yet in this subforum it's just regular old Italy 2013: The official thread.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Phil likes to mess up with thread titles.

That would mean that a coalition getting less votes than the M5S alone would still win 54% of seats? The ridiculousness of Italy's electoral system just took a whole new proportion.

I am reasonably certain that that is not the case. Either a list winning still gets the bonus, or there is no bonus. One or the other.

Also, if I read the Italian wiki correctly a party polling over 4% that is a member of a coalition polling below 10% still gets in? That could be relevant for Monti...

Yeah, A coalition polling < 10% is not counted as a coalition but rather as individual parties running on their own. The general, non-coalition threshold for parties is 4%. LOL, that would be really funny if the Monti coalition got < 10%, with only the Monti list > 4%. This would mean Fini and Casini completely shot themselves in the foot with that deal with Monti...

[Keystone Phil]

Phil likes to mess up with thread titles.

I like to do that when there are developments to bring attention to the thread. If you don't want to see that, don't quote the post. 


I don't think Monti's coalition would dip below 10% (and I certainly hope it wouldn't because then FLI/Fini are screwed).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Phil likes to mess up with thread titles.

I like to do that when there are developments to bring attention to the thread. If you don't want to see that, don't quote the post. 

Oh, I don't really care. But it might be confusing sometimes.

[Leftbehind]

So that's why.

[Keystone Phil]

Silvio's brother (publisher of Il Giornale) is creating a storm over what he said at a rally about Balotelli:

"Let's go and watch our household's little n***** [play]," he said to laughter.
"The girls here are all invited as well. They have the chance to meet Silvio Berlusconi."


http://www.goal.com/en/news/10/italy/2013/02/06/3729919/balotelli-is-ac-milans-little-n-paolo-berlusconi?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

[RogueBeaver]

Ugh. Just ugh.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is Italy. Don't expect that to be a game changer.

[MaxQue]

This is Italy. Don't expect that to be a game changer.

Well, politically, Italy is awful since the Roman Empire (and let's not talk of the mafia). They should really stick to food and history books (and exporting smart kids to Paris suburbs).

I'm kidding, but the fact than DC was in power for decades and than Berlusconi always seems to find a way back is really depressing about that country, which deserves better than crooks.