Congressional Primary Results Megathread: AR, GA, KY & TX (Runoff) - May 22

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Braun is definitely the favorite after looking at these early results.

Yep.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

When’s WV close? I’m just hoping to see Blankenšhit lose

Polls close at 7:30, not sure how quickly results tend to come in once the polls are closed

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Mike Braun
27,332   42.4%
Todd Rokita
18,690   29.0
Luke Messer
18,421   28.6
64,443 votes, 6% reporting (330 of 5,375 precincts)

It is extremely foolish to make this probjection with 94% of the vote outstanding

I disagree. We've got a good amount of data from varied sections of the state and all come to the same conclusion.

The fact that I can't say with confidence whether Rokita or Messer looks better positioned to beat Braun is a pretty good indication that Braun will probably win. He might end up with less than 40% of the vote, but he still looks like he's favored now anyway.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The thing is, Messer is doing better in his home territory than Rokita is in his, but Rokita's in second almost everywhere where Braun's winning. So no clear favorite to 11th hour Braun, and unless we get something shocking out of Lake County, Braun has this.

Either that, or else the precincts we have in from Indianapolis and its suburbs would need to be very unrepresentative of those counties.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Which District is Pittenger?

NC-09. 54-43 Trump Charlotte suburbs.

Stretches from Mecklenburg County east along the South Carolina border to Robeson County and the Fayetteville suburbs in Cumberland County

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This is terrifying:

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/993996218756820993

I don't know whether I should be mad or laugh my ass off.

All because it'll own the libs.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Lol at anyone looking at early returns in WV. I remember when it looked like Hillary might not get crushed in the primary there based on early returns.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Networks are calling Braun the winner in Indiana GOP Primary

There's enough in from Marion and Hamilton counties now that that seems like a safe call.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

THERE ARE MORE VOTES IN FOR THE DEM PRIMARY IN WV. WTF.

SWEARENGIN HAS MORE VOTES THAN ANY REPUBLICANS

Lol

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Manchin only leading 57-43 in Monongalia county with 25% of the vote in. Disastrous night for him.

That would be the one place where you'd expect Swearengin to do well though. That's one of the very few places in WV where the Dem base is closer to the national Dem base than the typical WV Dem base.

Was Hillary's best county in WV in the general election.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Barring some crazy change in how things are going, the correct lesson to learn from tonight is to not trust reports about Republican internal polling at all. Either they are lying, or they are telling the truth and are just terrible at polling.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Cocaine Mitch and the deep state bandits stole this from Blankensh**t

Blankenship losing the primary and then spending the rest of the year attacking the Republican party is probably a better outcome than him winning the primary, given that he is certifiably insane.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Yeah, Blankenship losing the primary is definitely a better outcome for Dems than him winning it. Sure.

It's better for the country because there is a 0% chance he wins the general election.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Yeah, Blankenship losing the primary is definitely a better outcome for Dems than him winning it. Sure.

Gotta love the coping mechanisms of some of the hacks here, lol.

Personally I didn't really care whether Blankenship won or not, since I think he was underestimated and Jenkins was overestimated. Manchin is in deep trouble regardless of his opponent.

I'm assuming this is directed at me. Pardon me for thinking it's bad for society for either party to be nominating lunatics. Pardon me for being horrified as Trump won primary after primary in 2016 as so many liberals thought it was great because "lol he'll never win".

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Since I’m on mobile and can’t see the map, can anyone please tell me if Manchin is losing any counties?

He is not, closest appears to be Mingo, 55.4-44.6

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Weird to see Manchin do so poorly in Mingo, but still clearing 70% in almost all of the other coal counties.

What makes Mingo different?

I think Mingo just enjoys being eccentric now. It's like Loving County, Texas.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Looks like Ohio and Indiana are unmitigated disasters for the Dems based on the turnout numbers, especially with Indiana practically ensuring Donnelly is a 1-termer.  

OH and IN literally had zero competitive statewide primaries for the Dems (in fact, Donnelly and Brown weren't even contested!), while IN and OH had decently competitive statewide primaries for the GOP.

Don't feed the troll.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Severe weather warning in Philly, Tornado warning in central PA, blue skies in the west

Weather has basically cleared up by now in York County. Had some hail earlier, aroung 5:30.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Key Races to watch:

PA-01 Ds
PA-04 Ds
PA-05 Ds
PA-07 both
PA-09 Rs
PA-13 Rs
PA-14 Rs
PA-lt. Gov
PA-Sen Rs

NE-02 Ds

ID-Gov Both
ID-01 Rs

OR-Gov Rs

Some I doubt will be too close, but they all have chances to be interesting.

I may be biased, but I think PA-10 is worth watching too.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

results pages?

Here is PennLive's results for the PA congressional races: http://www.pennlive.com/news/2018/05/pa_primary_2018_live_results_f.html

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Key Races to watch:

PA-01 Ds
PA-04 Ds
PA-05 Ds
PA-07 both
PA-09 Rs
PA-13 Rs
PA-14 Rs
PA-lt. Gov
PA-Sen Rs

NE-02 Ds

ID-Gov Both
ID-01 Rs

OR-Gov Rs

Some I doubt will be too close, but they all have chances to be interesting.

I may be biased, but I think PA-10 is worth watching too.

Yes it is, but I personally think it won't be a competative primary at all. We will see though.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/15/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-primary-elections.html <- Nytimes link, but apparently results might be paywalled for some people.

Nate Cohen essentially confirmed they are now behind the paywall

Just open it in an incognito window. All browsers has them.

Well that's handy.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

First precinct just reported, in Philly.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Lol, there was only one Republican voter in that last precinct.

3rd district, sounds about right.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Is anybody else seeing random lines on the NYT map for PA?

Interstate highways, it would seem.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Mike Stack is the incumbent?  What was wrong with him?

Wolf hasn't endorsed him, and he had a weird scandal with being verbally abusive toward his staff. Also, no one really liked him to begin with.