Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I keep seeing that we can't send them this or that western weapons system because they lack the training and experience.  I sure hope there are a few hundred Ukrainian techs, troops and teachers currently sitting in various NATO classrooms right now learning these systems (and how to teach them to others).  Sure they might not be ready for months or even years, but better to get that process started sooner than later, right?

This is what was/is being done with Starstreak MANPADS. I would guess it was happening with the Switchblades, too.

I hope it’s being done with other systems, but - beside light ones - I doubt it. The West does not really want to engage with the challenges around the supply of heavy/complex weaponry for other reasons besides training - the difficulty of integrating new and “smart” systems into a defence network that’s already under attack, the risk of secret technologies being captured and studied by Russia, and the cost of supply are all factors here.

If it did want to train the Ukrainian Army to use complex Western weapons, my guess is that we would have seen some supply of Soviet equivalents in the short-term while a training program happened in the medium term. Giving Ukraine old air defences, for instance, should have been a much quicker win than a Patriot missile training program, and the former not happening does not bode well for any Ukrainian officials hoping for the latter.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/MaximColch/status/1508461578416496643

what

See thread,

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580?s=20&t=3pd0svMdBlS...

Incidentally this also explains why a few days ago Russian-affiliated trolls on twitter out of the blue started claiming Rustem Umerov was dead.

It’s a good thing there isn’t a country involved in the peace talks with a long history of poisoning peop….oh wait.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Things are escalating.


https://mobile.twitter.com/TomRiversABC/status/1508465215033253890


https://mobile.twitter.com/mariatad/status/1508499290288664578

[Torie]

The Economist delves into the price of Russian oil, the quantity of which has been cut in half. The mag expects the existing 30% discount will go up to 40%. Interestingly, the real bite is not governments, but private firms fearing bad publicity:

"Instead seaborne exports have cratered because Western buyers, such as big energy firms, fear a public backlash. They also face financial and logistical headaches as cautious banks cut credit, ship owners struggle to obtain insurance and freight costs soar. And each time sanctions are tweaked, says Antonia Tzinova of Holland & Knight, a law firm, compliance staff must study hundreds of pages of ambiguous legalese, making many Russian deals hardly worth the hassle. As a result, Urals crude, the grade pumped out by Russia, is currently trading at a discount of around $30 a barrel. One trader expects the gap to hit $40 within a week’s time."

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/what-can-russia-do-to-sell-its-unwanted-oil/21808447

The bailout country for Russia is China.  However the transport cost is much higher than to Europe (40 days rather than 4), but China will buy when the price gets down to what it thinks is the bottom given the size of the discount. But 30% is not enough of a discount. In the meantime, the price of oil overall will be higher as the market is disrupted and now operating in inefficient ways in order to further the goal of defunding Russia.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1508518460405526530

But Ukraine and its western backers remain sceptical of Putin’s intentions, worrying that the Russian president could be using the talks as a smokescreen to replenish his exhausted forces and plan a fresh offensive.

[Lord Halifax]

Ha! https://gur.gov.ua/content/sotrudnyky-fsb-rossyy-uchastvuiushchye-v-prestupnoi-deiatelnosty-stranyahressora-na-terrytoryy-evropy.html

Ukrainian intelligence just released the names of 620 FSB agents throughout Europe. And...their dates of birth, addresses, places of employment and make and registration numbers of their cars. OUCH!

The FSB in Europe is basically crippled.

Number 611 on that list isn't me I promise.

you seem a bit too eager to deny it Vlad

611. SHCHEMELININ VLADIMIR SERGEEVICH, 01/10/1965, 4510523559, 01/19/2010 MOSCOW IN THE MESHCHANSKIY DISTRICT, 770007, 107031, Moscow, Bolshaya Lubyanka St., 1/3, Federal Security Service (FSB) of the Russian Federation, Drinks. Systematically violates traffic rules

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1508474128906469388

Of course not, because NATO was never a serious issue and all the complaining about its expansion is nonsense. Putin knows that NATO won't invade Russia and when 5% of your borders is next to NATO territory, that's not "encircles". What Putin really is afraid of is democracy and the EU. A stable and democratic Ukraine with a prospering economy would threaten his power in Russia because many Russians would start asking why they can't have this as well. A lot of Ukrainians have family relationships in Russia, something Putin can't just shut down with State TV propaganda.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1508474128906469388

Of course not, because NATO was never a serious issue and all the complaining about its expansion is nonsense. Putin knows that NATO won't invade Russia and when 5% of your borders is next to NATO territory, that's not "encircles". What Putin really is afraid of is democracy and the EU. A stable and democratic Ukraine with a prospering economy would threaten his power in Russia because many Russians would start asking why they can't have this as well. A lot of Ukrainians have family relationships in Russia, something Putin can't just shut down with State TV propaganda.

Until Putin's other choices are worse.  Which makes the toughest part it seems to me the issue of how to provide Ukraine with security guarantees which make it functionally impossible for Russia to come back for another course at a later date.

[DaleCooper]

But Ukraine and its western backers remain sceptical of Putin’s intentions, worrying that the Russian president could be using the talks as a smokescreen to replenish his exhausted forces and plan a fresh offensive.

This needs to be treated as a given, but the ultimate goal here still needs to be to get Russia out of Ukraine as soon as possible so that we can arm Ukrainians to the teeth and train them in the meantime so that Russia's sh-t military won't even be able to get this far again. Ukraine, if properly prepared, can handle another Russian invasion, tragic as that would be. Putin's military is pathetic, and I don't think a new wave of miserable drunk 20-year-old conscripts will be capable of doing what the first wave failed to do.

[Storr]

Extremely loud bass warning.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1508458794468139014?s=20&t=EobyGCczd44...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The cables of some old naval mines deployed earlier in the conflict have been broken and some have been drifting out into the Black Sea, being subsequently intercepted by Romania and Turkey. Could this threat to shipping in the Black Sea linger well beyond the duration of the conflict?

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1508541666680004612

Given their age and the reality that they have fewer warships to worry about, it's likely these are Ukrainian.

[pppolitics]

Is this for real or a hoax?

https://twitter.com/LtTimMcMillan/status/1508504806347972615

[Storr]

Spoiler: Putin did it.

The FSB paid some Chechens to do it, and they took the fall. Such an assassination could only have occured with the approval of the President.

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1508455925295820812?s=20&t=EobyGCczd...

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508349553388494848?s=20&t=EobyGCczd44...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Is this for real or a hoax?

https://twitter.com/LtTimMcMillan/status/1508504806347972615

My guess is that this is used by DPR/LPR forces or South Ossetian "volunteers", who tend to be worse equipped and have had to scrounge/remake their own vehicles for years.

Technicals aren't ideal in general and are much worse than a tank in a mechanised assault on a city, but sometimes they're the best use for spare parts or old guns that were supposed to be stationary (but are actually more useful atop a truck). Ukraine uses a limited number as well, and they'll become more common as the war goes on.

If this is actually the official Russian army, it's still pretty embarrassing at this stage, but you shouldn't turn your nose up at them completely. Chad took their country back from an armed and armoured Libyan force with weaponised Toyotas, and they're not much less useful today than they were then.

[Storr]

I'm sure Russian reservists will be excited about this:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1508528772181549072?s=20&t=IuSX1_ter...

[2952-0-0]

Of course not, because NATO was never a serious issue and all the complaining about its expansion is nonsense. Putin knows that NATO won't invade Russia and when 5% of your borders is next to NATO territory, that's not "encircles". What Putin really is afraid of is democracy and the EU. A stable and democratic Ukraine with a prospering economy would threaten his power in Russia because many Russians would start asking why they can't have this as well. A lot of Ukrainians have family relationships in Russia, something Putin can't just shut down with State TV propaganda.

I think this problem would be survivable, anyway. A Ukraine that's in the EU, NATO, and prosperous would be portrayed in official Russian media as one that's spiritually polluted by the west, and therefore Russia proper needs a strong leader to keep it spiritually pure.

The TV news would report about gay pride parades in Kyiv, and the supposedly rampant neo-Nazi skinheads (don't ask how they could co-exist). The heated debates in the Ukrainian parliament - in Russian, no less - can be shown as proof that Ukraine's politics are in disarray. The nation's strong western-aligned geopolitical status would be proof that Ukraine is a client of the EU/US, and therefore proof that Russia needs a strong leader to preserve its sovereignty. Also, the Ukrainian government is bound to make domestically controversial decisions, which will provoke mass opposition: that can be spun as evidence that Ukrainians are unhappy with the entire political system, rather than the decisions themselves.

Official North Korean media portray South Korea this way, even though most North Koreans know full well their southern compatriots are magnitudes wealthier. China's official media also similarly frame Taiwan this way, though China's own economic development does give itself more domestic credibility. Hence, it's possible to imagine Putin using the state media to ideologically protect himself from a western-aligned and prosperous Ukraine.

OTOH, DDR propaganda portrayed West Germany in that same way, but we know how East Germans responded - and Putin knows that from personal experience.

I think Putin's decision to invade Ukraine will be something whose motivation will be argued by historians for generations to come, like Hitler's decision to declare war on the US.

[Storr]

The Copeium Federation

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1508555716256276488?s=20&t=IuSX1_terb6...

[Storr]

It looks like much of the 4th Guards Tank Division was denazified destroyed trying to sweep from Trostyanets', bypassing Sumy, west to help encircle Kyiv. Oryx currently tallies 10 T-80BVs and 46 T-80Us lost by the Russians.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html


https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1508559298779140100?s=20&t=ngZBw_mp...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1508565854874705921?s=20&t=ngZBw_mpHUKglR...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ugh...


https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1508510102789230594

[Person Man]

It looks like much of the 4th Guards Tank Division was denazified destroyed trying to sweep from Trostyanets', bypassing Sumy, west to help encircle Kyiv. Oryx currently tallies 10 T-80s and 46 T-80Us lost by the Russians.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html


https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1508559298779140100?s=20&t=ngZBw_mp...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1508565854874705921?s=20&t=ngZBw_mpHUKglR...

You didn’t have to strike that out.

[Torrain]

Kadyrov seems to be becoming more important to the war.

https://www.twitter.com/neilphauer/status/1508426419273142278

Ukrainian snipers: 👀

Honest question to those with more knowledge of Moscow-Chechen relations.
Is this Putin deploying a trusted ally to “try get the job done”, or has he just pushed Kadyrov to the front line in order to speed up a change of leadership in Chechnya?

Or is this a “little of Column A, little of Column B” situation?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kadyrov seems to be becoming more important to the war.

https://www.twitter.com/neilphauer/status/1508426419273142278

Ukrainian snipers: 👀

Honest question to those with more knowledge of Moscow-Chechen relations.
Is this Putin deploying a trusted ally to “try get the job done”, or has he just pushed Kadyrov to the front line in order to speed up a change of leadership in Chechnya?

Or is this a “little of Column A, little of Column B” situation?

The first. Kadyrov is ruthless. And after describing him as such, I saw that the word appears twice in his Wikipedia article.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/BattlefieldUkr/status/1508530385319337992?s=20&t=P-zSJI3...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1508550322523979780

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1508550322523979780

Graham, Kinzinger and Angus King often differ from their party lines in various ways (Graham is hawkish and reckless, Kinzinger is in his posting arc as his career circles the drain, and King is an independent).

Blinken sings a much happier tune, and I don't believe a serious shift is on the horizon while that's the case. The White House will shift before the Senate does (and probably the House, too).