2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 191608 times)
republican1993
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« Reply #2325 on: October 31, 2020, 09:35:17 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 31, 2020, 09:28:37 PM
Nate is teasing us on the polls tomorrow and I'm a bit turned on

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage#trump-gets-his-best-poll-of-the-cycle-heres-how-to-put-it-in-perspective

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No other indications of a last-minute surge. There’s another respect in which the Selzer poll is a bit of an outlier: It shows Mr. Trump gaining seven points compared with its prior survey. Four years ago, the Selzer poll was not alone in showing Mr. Trump picking up three points compared to a prior poll in early October, after the first debate.

This year, there’s not any other indication of a seven-point swing toward Mr. Trump, and there’s no reason to expect it either. The news environment doesn’t seem to have changed. The coronavirus spike is still the biggest national story, and I wouldn’t expect that to help the president. Maybe the final wave of polls over the next couple of days will hint at a shift, but for now there isn’t one.

Quote
Pennsylvania. Don’t let Iowa make you lose sight of the most important state in the election: Pennsylvania. We got an additional data point there today from Muhlenberg College, which showed Mr. Biden with a five-point lead in the state. That’s slightly better for Mr. Trump than our average or its last poll of the state about a week ago, when Mr. Biden led by seven points. These sample sizes are small, so this kind of change could very easily just be noise. But I do think the majority of telephone polls in Pennsylvania over the last week or two have shown a subtle shift toward Mr. Trump. We’ll get a lot more from Pennsylvania on Sunday or Monday.


So unless he's totally throwing us off, I expect a Biden +4-6 result in PA, maybe a Biden +5 in AZ, Biden up by a couple points in Florida, and a pretty good Biden result in Wisconsin, +8-10.

which in reality won't be even the end result so why does it matter? florida will be decided by a point
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #2326 on: October 31, 2020, 09:48:00 PM »
Sounds like some really bad Texas polls tomorrow...
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forza nocta
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« Reply #2327 on: October 31, 2020, 09:49:46 PM »
Wait so no Wapo national poll tonight? Gah damn it
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2328 on: October 31, 2020, 09:49:58 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 31, 2020, 09:48:00 PM
Sounds like some really bad Texas polls tomorrow...



Lief, buddy
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Yank2133
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« Reply #2329 on: October 31, 2020, 09:50:13 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 31, 2020, 09:48:00 PM
Sounds like some really bad Texas polls tomorrow...



“If”

Are you actually reading these tweets?
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charcuterie
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« Reply #2330 on: October 31, 2020, 09:51:06 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 31, 2020, 09:48:00 PM
Sounds like some really bad Texas polls tomorrow...


I don't think that's ANY indication a Texas poll, let alone a bad one, is on the way.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #2331 on: October 31, 2020, 10:00:01 PM »
Quote from: forza nocta on October 31, 2020, 09:49:46 PM
Wait so no Wapo national poll tonight? Gah damn it
Midnight.Right?
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forza nocta
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« Reply #2332 on: October 31, 2020, 10:03:35 PM »

Others here were saying its just PA/FL state polls tonight. Dont know if that means we won’t get the national poll tonight.
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philly09
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« Reply #2333 on: October 31, 2020, 10:10:33 PM »
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Horus
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« Reply #2334 on: October 31, 2020, 10:14:06 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on October 31, 2020, 10:10:33 PM


The last five or so days of 2016 actually saw improvement for Hillary in national polls. Her worst day in the model was November 3rd. So unless the movement towards Trump is massive I wouldn't be worried much about national numbers. Now if Pennsylvania is within the MoE...
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #2335 on: October 31, 2020, 10:20:15 PM »
Quote from: Horus on October 31, 2020, 10:14:06 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 31, 2020, 10:10:33 PM


The last five or so days of 2016 actually saw improvement for Hillary in national polls. Her worst day in the model was November 3rd. So unless the movement towards Trump is massive I wouldn't be worried much about national numbers. Now if Pennsylvania is within the MoE...
Ehhh Biden+4 would not be good
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2336 on: October 31, 2020, 11:11:22 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2020, 11:31:20 PM by LimoLiberal »
Tomorrow:
PA-NYT/Siena
WI-NYT/Siena
AZ-NYT/Siena
FL-NYT/Siena
MI-EPICMRA - speculative
10 state polls from Emerson?

Tomorrow or Monday:
Fox state polls - speculative - but probably include Pennsylvania
CBS/YouGov state polls - speculative - but probably include Pennsylvania
NBC/WSJ national poll?

Monday
PA-Monmouth
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #2337 on: October 31, 2020, 11:17:59 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 31, 2020, 11:11:22 PM

Tomorrow:
PA-NYT/Siena
WI-NYT/Siena
AZ-NYT/Siena
FL-NYT/Siena
MI-EPICMRA - speculative

Tomorrow or Monday:
Fox state polls - speculative - but probably include Pennsylvania
CBS/YouGov state polls - speculative - but probably include Pennsylvania
NBC/WSJ national poll?


Also Pa Monmouth tommorow
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forza nocta
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« Reply #2338 on: October 31, 2020, 11:25:44 PM »
Also, like 10+ polls from Emerson tomorrow
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Buzz
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« Reply #2339 on: October 31, 2020, 11:30:37 PM »
Great night of polling.  Can’t wait to wake up and see Biden winning every NYT poll by at least 3!  Predictable as it gets with that bunch.  The Emerson polls are the wildcard, who knows what they have to show.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #2340 on: November 01, 2020, 12:00:49 AM »
NYT Florida: +3

Biden - 37
Trump - 34
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philly09
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« Reply #2341 on: November 01, 2020, 12:35:48 AM »
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AnOdyssey
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« Reply #2342 on: November 01, 2020, 01:34:39 AM »
The polls are wrong

Why? Forget the "shy Trump voter", its the "Shy Biden Voter."

Likely, if you are voting Trump, you're not going to be shy about it.

So, I feel Biden is underestimated by certain pollsters.  
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philly09
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« Reply #2343 on: November 01, 2020, 03:54:31 AM »
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Buzz
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« Reply #2344 on: November 01, 2020, 05:57:11 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 31, 2020, 06:58:35 AM
NYT Predictions:
PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +3
WI: Biden +8
AZ: Biden +5

Monmouth:
PA: Biden +9

Damnit, Wisconsin.  Why you be so cray cray
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #2345 on: November 01, 2020, 06:00:39 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on November 01, 2020, 05:57:11 AM
Quote from: Buzz on October 31, 2020, 06:58:35 AM
NYT Predictions:
PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +3
WI: Biden +8
AZ: Biden +5

Monmouth:
PA: Biden +9

Damnit, Wisconsin.  Why you be so cray cray
Solid prediction though, gotta give you that.
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Buzz
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« Reply #2346 on: November 01, 2020, 07:19:55 AM »
Happy Super Poll Sunday!



Predictions:
Ohio: Trump +3
Iowa: Trump +2
Michigan: Biden +9
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2347 on: November 01, 2020, 08:10:41 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on November 01, 2020, 07:19:55 AM
Happy Super Poll Sunday!



Predictions:
Ohio: Trump +3
Iowa: Trump +2
Michigan: Biden +9

Ohio: Trump +4
Iowa: Trump +5
Michigan: Biden +7
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Person Man
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« Reply #2348 on: November 01, 2020, 09:36:57 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 01, 2020, 08:10:41 AM
Quote from: Buzz on November 01, 2020, 07:19:55 AM
Happy Super Poll Sunday!



Predictions:
Ohio: Trump +3
Iowa: Trump +2
Michigan: Biden +9

Ohio: Trump +4
Iowa: Trump +5
Michigan: Biden +7
1/3
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2349 on: November 01, 2020, 09:40:43 AM »
I find it hard to believe that CBS/WP and Monmouth won't release a final national poll.
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