GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Epaminondas]

Here are the gaps in votes in double-barrel Senate seats since 1980:

- Minnesota 2018: 150,000 voted both Klobuchar (D) and Housley (R), gap of 13.5 points

- Mississippi 2018: 51,000 voted for Wicker and Espy, or a gap of 9.3 points

- South Carolina 2014 : 20,000 voted Scott (R) and Hutto (D), gap of 9.5 points

- Oklahoma 2014: 2,000 voted Inhofe (R) and Connie Johnson (D), gap of 0.6 points

- New-York 2010: 100,000 voted Schumer (D) and DioGuardi (R), gap of 6.2 points

- Mississippi 2008: 83,000 voted Cochrane (R) and Musgrove (D), gap of 12.8 points

- Wyoming 2008: 6,000 voted Enzi (R) and Nick Carter (D), gap of 4.4 points

- Kansas 1996: 77,000 voted Roberts (R) and Docking (D), gap of 17 points

- Tennessee 1994: 52,000 voted Thompson (R) and Sasser (D), gap of 5.5 points

- California 1992: 555,000 voted split between Feinstein (D) and Herschensohn (R), gap of 11.4 points

- North Darkota 1992 (1 month apart): turnout drop of 47% make raw numbers unusable, but the gap was 11.8 points in favour of Conrad


That's an average voting gap of 9.3 and a median gap of 9.5.
What's more the gap for governor in Georgia (50k or 1.4 points) was overcome in every double-barrel Senate save one since 1980.
There's a chance.

[MaxQue]

It would be interesting to find the raw gaps in votes in double-barrel Senate seats.
Last election Minnesota saw at least 150,000 voters split their votes between Klobuchar and Housley.

The gap for governor was only 50k, so a double-barrel Senate race in Georgia would actually be a real opportunity for Dems.

Since 2008 (there was none between 1996 and 2008):
OK 2014 had no significant vote splitting.
SC 2014 (the D candidate against Lindsey Graham overpolled the other by 20000 votes).
NY 2010 (probably roughly 103000 voted voted Schumer and DioGuardi)
MS 2008 (80000 split votes between Cochrane and Musgrove).
WY 2008 (probably 6000 electors voted Enzi and Carter)

[MT Treasurer]

I’d rate both races Tossup/Tilt R, but I’m glad he retired this year rather than 2022 when the GOP would have been forced to defend an open seat. Having a Republican incumbent who runs for reelection in 2022 should be at least somewhat conducive to Republican chances that year, although it almost certainly wouldn’t be enough to hold the seat in another Democratic wave year.

[Coldstream]

Karen Handel has to be the greatest political operator in history if she can wrangle it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It will be a right winger

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1166812835265044481

If true, does this signal the guy maybe just a placeholder as opposed to someone planned to defend the seat as an incumbent.

When would this election be? If it is a special election rather than a regular 2020 election oh, wouldn't that significantly improve Republican chances considering the drop off and turn out Democrats will suffer?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1166812835265044481

If true, does this signal the guy maybe just a placeholder as opposed to someone planned to defend the seat as an incumbent.

When would this election be? If it is a special election rather than a regular 2020 election oh, wouldn't that significantly improve Republican chances considering the drop off and turn out Democrats will suffer?

It will be a jungle primary coincident with the regular November general election.  If nobody gets a majority, a runoff will be held in January 2021.

It will be fun if control of the Senate hinges on a Georgia runoff, or maybe even two Georgia runoffs.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1166812835265044481

If true, does this signal the guy maybe just a placeholder as opposed to someone planned to defend the seat as an incumbent.

When would this election be? If it is a special election rather than a regular 2020 election oh, wouldn't that significantly improve Republican chances considering the drop off and turn out Democrats will suffer?

It will be a jungle primary coincident with the regular November general election.  If nobody gets a majority, a runoff will be held in January 2021.

It will be fun if control of the Senate hinges on a Georgia runoff, or maybe even two Georgia runoffs.

I doubt it. Maine and NC would flip before GA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only Solid thinks that TX and GA is tilting Dem before ME and NC. Solid has 412 EC map victory for Biden

[MT Treasurer]

Maine and NC would flip before GA.

GA could absolutely flip before ME.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Maine and NC would flip before GA.

GA could absolutely flip before ME.

Atlas seems to have this weird obsession with GA being a safe R state and VA, IA and OH being quintessential swing states

[MT Treasurer]

Atlas seems to have this weird obsession with GA being a safe R state and VA, IA and OH being quintessential swing states

Well, as soon as inevitable Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren starts talking about kitchen table issues, GA/IA/VA/TX/ME will instantaneously trend back to the other party and vote like they did in 2012 (FL like 2004 tho) and everyone and their mother will be happy again.

[Politician]

Atlas seems to have this weird obsession with GA being a safe R state and VA, IA and OH being quintessential swing states

Well, as soon as inevitable Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren starts talking about kitchen table issues, GA/IA/VA/TX/ME will instantaneously trend back to the other party and vote like they did in 2012 (FL like 2004 tho) and everyone and their mother will be happy again.

As opposed to TX/KS/UT/ME/RI flipping simultaneously because of WWC trends and suburban trends?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Atlas seems to have this weird obsession with GA being a safe R state and VA, IA and OH being quintessential swing states

Well, as soon as inevitable Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren starts talking about kitchen table issues, GA/IA/VA/TX/ME will instantaneously trend back to the other party and vote like they did in 2012 (FL like 2004 tho) and everyone and their mother will be happy again.

As opposed to TX/KS/UT/ME/RI flipping simultaneously because of WWC trends and suburban trends?

Can you please point out to me where anyone has suggested that they will all flip up simultaneously? Or even point out to me where people have said Kansas and UT will flip? I know some of the blue avatar lunatics have made circle jerk threads about RI going Trump, but not anyone serious

[Nutmeg]

I could see Saxby as a Jon Kyl-type figure here, but it presumably would be someone with close ties to Kemp.

[Pandaguineapig]

Probably Chris Carr or BJ Pak

[Young Conservative]

BJ Pak would be one of the best picks.

[Mr. Smith]

Here are the gaps in votes in double-barrel Senate seats since 1980:

- Minnesota 2018: 150,000 voted both Klobuchar (D) and Housley (R), gap of 13.5 points

- South Carolina 2014 : 20,000 voted Scott (R) and Hutto (D), gap of 9.5 points

- Oklahoma 2014: 2,000 voted Inhofe (R) and Connie Johnson (D), gap of 0.6 points

- New-York 2010: 100,000 voted Schumer (D) and DioGuardi (R), gap of 6.2 points

- Mississippi 2008: 83,000 voted Cochrane (R) and Musgrove (D), gap of 12.8 points

- Wyoming 2008: 6,000 voted Enzi (R) and Nick Carter (D), gap of 4.4 points

- Kansas 1996: 77,000 voted Roberts (R) and Docking (D), gap of 17 points

- Tennessee 1994: 52,000 voted Thompson (R) and Sasser (D), gap of 5.5 points

- California 1992: 555,000 voted split between Feinstein (D) and Herschensohn (R), gap of 11.4 points


So the gap for governor in Georgia (50k or 1.4 points) was overcome in every double-barrel Senate save one since 1980.
There's a chance.

Oh? And of Wicker (R) v Espy (D) for MS 2018?

[Oryxslayer]

Here are the gaps in votes in double-barrel Senate seats since 1980:

- Minnesota 2018: 150,000 voted both Klobuchar (D) and Housley (R), gap of 13.5 points

- South Carolina 2014 : 20,000 voted Scott (R) and Hutto (D), gap of 9.5 points

- Oklahoma 2014: 2,000 voted Inhofe (R) and Connie Johnson (D), gap of 0.6 points

- New-York 2010: 100,000 voted Schumer (D) and DioGuardi (R), gap of 6.2 points

- Mississippi 2008: 83,000 voted Cochrane (R) and Musgrove (D), gap of 12.8 points

- Wyoming 2008: 6,000 voted Enzi (R) and Nick Carter (D), gap of 4.4 points

- Kansas 1996: 77,000 voted Roberts (R) and Docking (D), gap of 17 points

- Tennessee 1994: 52,000 voted Thompson (R) and Sasser (D), gap of 5.5 points

- California 1992: 555,000 voted split between Feinstein (D) and Herschensohn (R), gap of 11.4 points


So the gap for governor in Georgia (50k or 1.4 points) was overcome in every double-barrel Senate save one since 1980.
There's a chance.

I think the more interesting statistic is that we have never quite had a double-barrel in a state as close to the national median as GA 2020. Maybe CA in 92 or Minnesota in 28, but both ended up falling by the side of history. When there is a serious divination in the totals, it's often because of candidate quality and one party investing heavily in one race. Like:

CA 92: CA was a close state back then, but as we all know, the 90s were the turning point in Californian political history.
TN 94: Gore put this state on the map for Clinton, but a normally reddish state won't elect a Dem senator in the 94 wave.
KS 96: One of the most reliably GOP states in the nation, and your presidential candidate is from there. No.
WY 08: Red state.
MS 08: Red state, but running a Dem gov is a candidate improvement.
NY 10: Blue state.
OK 14: Red state.
SC 14: Red state .
MN 18: theoretically could have been closer, but the blue wave pushed the state off the playing field. Also, klobuchar is an electoral machine.

IF 2020 is a close election like expected, GA will be sitting there on the margins...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Hope it's Handle. I think she'd be one of the easier candidates to beat.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Here are the gaps in votes in double-barrel Senate seats since 1980:

- Minnesota 2018: 150,000 voted both Klobuchar (D) and Housley (R), gap of 13.5 points

- South Carolina 2014 : 20,000 voted Scott (R) and Hutto (D), gap of 9.5 points

- Oklahoma 2014: 2,000 voted Inhofe (R) and Connie Johnson (D), gap of 0.6 points

- New-York 2010: 100,000 voted Schumer (D) and DioGuardi (R), gap of 6.2 points

- Mississippi 2008: 83,000 voted Cochrane (R) and Musgrove (D), gap of 12.8 points

- Wyoming 2008: 6,000 voted Enzi (R) and Nick Carter (D), gap of 4.4 points

- Kansas 1996: 77,000 voted Roberts (R) and Docking (D), gap of 17 points

- Tennessee 1994: 52,000 voted Thompson (R) and Sasser (D), gap of 5.5 points

- California 1992: 555,000 voted split between Feinstein (D) and Herschensohn (R), gap of 11.4 points


So the gap for governor in Georgia (50k or 1.4 points) was overcome in every double-barrel Senate save one since 1980.
There's a chance.

I think the more interesting statistic is that we have never quite had a double-barrel in a state as close to the national median as GA 2020. Maybe CA in 92 or Minnesota in 28, but both ended up falling by the side of history. When there is a serious divination in the totals, it's often because of candidate quality and one party investing heavily in one race. Like:

CA 92: CA was a close state back then, but as we all know, the 90s were the turning point in Californian political history.
TN 94: Gore put this state on the map for Clinton, but a normally reddish state won't elect a Dem senator in the 94 wave.
KS 96: One of the most reliably GOP states in the nation, and your presidential candidate is from there. No.
WY 08: Red state.
MS 08: Red state, but running a Dem gov is a candidate improvement.
NY 10: Blue state.
OK 14: Red state.
SC 14: Red state .
MN 18: theoretically could have been closer, but the blue wave pushed the state off the playing field. Also, klobuchar is an electoral machine.

IF 2020 is a close election like expected, GA will be sitting there on the margins...

ND was of course solid Republican in the 1992 Presidential election, but that didn't stop Democrats from winning both seats. The special election was in December, so technically isn't a double barrel.  It's a good one for certain trivia questions about Senate elections because Conrad was sworn in the at the same time that Dorgan replaced him in the Senate.

[Frenchrepublican]

Maine and NC would flip before GA.

GA could absolutely flip before ME.

It’s unlikely to say the least. Collins has seen a big drop in her approval rate and the chances that Trump loses ME by double digits are much higher than the probability he loses GA. If democrats are flipping the GA seats it means that we are in the midst of democratic tsunami and Collins is already gone in a such scenario. 
 

[Frenchrepublican]

Maine and NC would flip before GA.

GA could absolutely flip before ME.

Atlas seems to have this weird obsession with GA being a safe R state and VA, IA and OH being quintessential swing states

Where did I say that GA is safe R ? Where did I say that VA and OH are toss-ups ?
VA is safe D and OH is likely R. GA is more complicated, I expect the race to be close but you don’t have a lot of swing voters thus the state is on the border between lean and likely R.

[Epaminondas]

Good catches by MormDem and jfern, here's the updated list with are the two missing double-barrel races since 1992:


- Minnesota 2018: 150,000 voted both Klobuchar (D) and Housley (R), gap of 13.5 points

- Mississippi 2018: 51,000 voted for Wicker (R) and Espy (D), gap of 9.3 points

- South Carolina 2014 : 20,000 voted Scott (R) and Hutto (D), gap of 9.5 points

- Oklahoma 2014: 2,000 voted Inhofe (R) and Connie Johnson (D), gap of 0.6 points

- New-York 2010: 100,000 voted Schumer (D) and DioGuardi (R), gap of 6.2 points

- Mississippi 2008: 83,000 voted Cochrane (R) and Musgrove (D), gap of 12.8 points

- Wyoming 2008: 6,000 voted Enzi (R) and Nick Carter (D), gap of 4.4 points

- Kansas 1996: 77,000 voted Roberts (R) and Docking (D), gap of 17 points

- Tennessee 1994: 52,000 voted Thompson (R) and Sasser (D), gap of 5.5 points

- California 1992: 555,000 voted split between Feinstein (D) and Herschensohn (R), gap of 11.4 points

- North Darkota 1992 (1 month apart): turnout drop of 47% makes raw numbers unusable, but gap was 11.8 points in favour of Conrad


That's an average voting gap of 9.3 and a median gap of 9.5.

Thus in the past 25 years, a 5% Senate vote split has been the norm, easily enough for Georgia on paper.

[Epaminondas]

Given that she just drove her family business into bankruptcy that would be a hard sell

Wouldn't that make her more attractive to the GOP base now?