Florida 2022 Megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

I stand by my previous statement, the race is done.
https://twitter.com/karlamats/status/802522374641958912?s=21&t=zlMQhmbfPNHWz...

[Roll Roons]

I honestly wonder if Crist only wins Alachua, Broward, Gadsden, Leon and Orange at this point.

[ajc0918]

I stand by my previous statement, the race is done.
https://twitter.com/karlamats/status/802522374641958912?s=21&t=zlMQhmbfPNHWz...

This isn't controversial

[Roll Roons]

I honestly wonder if Crist only wins Alachua, Broward, Gadsden, Leon and Orange at this point.

how's darren bailey doing

I wrote that one off ages ago. I'm not that delusional

[Utah Neolib]

Everything here points to high-Likely R.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Hot-take I don't expect Desants to outperform trump that much, I think him winning by 6 points is probably his celling. People like to pretend Florida is a titanium R state rather than one of the closest states in the country with plenty of democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A poll just came out today showing a 51/46 race and all the users like in OH Sen thinks it's over with lol it's not over with we still have to vote

Users forget about NY 19 and AK alot they just think Red states the Rs have this, no they don't

[Eraserhead]

Horrible state with awful candidates.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hot-take I don't expect Desants to outperform trump that much, I think him winning by 6 points is probably his celling. People like to pretend Florida is a titanium R state rather than one of the closest states in the country with plenty of democrats.

I agree. Looking at the 2020 precinct map, there really aren't a ton of areas where an R could really overperform Trump much without being insanely strong overall or dramatic re-alignment. Especially in communities like Tampa and Jacksonville, Dem support as is is pretty stripped to just black and non-cuban Hispanic communities.

I'm still keeping this at likely R due to Florida's turnout dynamics in midterms, however, I'd be pretty shocked if DeSantis won by double digits especially if folks like Kelly and Fetterman are competitive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis isn't winning by double digits in an R plus 3 state

[Real Texan Politics]

DeSantis isn't winning by double digits in an R plus 3 state

By that logic, Rubio shouldn’t have won by 8 in the same year Trump won by only 1.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He ran against Murphy not Demings and Demings is over performing Crist anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sources-crist-picks-teachers-union-214024865.html

Crist picks Karia Hernandez as running mate not Gwen Graham

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

DeSantis isn't winning by double digits in an R plus 3 state

By that logic, Rubio shouldn’t have won by 8 in the same year Trump won by only 1.

Rubio didn't go out of his way to become a polarizing fireband. Like there are 3 ways that Desantis outperforms Trump is by either getting a lot of Biden voters to vote for him, getting non-voter for him or hoping democratic turnout craters.

Which of these is likley ?

[Real Texan Politics]

DeSantis isn't winning by double digits in an R plus 3 state

By that logic, Rubio shouldn’t have won by 8 in the same year Trump won by only 1.

Rubio didn't go out of his way to become a polarizing fireband. Like there are 3 ways that Desantis outperforms Trump is by either getting a lot of Biden voters to vote for him, getting non-voter for him or hoping democratic turnout craters.

Which of these is likley ?

Most likely non-voters

[2016]

According to Carla Hernandez-Mats, Crists Running Mate
https://twitter.com/ChristinaPushaw/status/1563540618076295174

Saying you are not a Parent of a Children because you don't support a Mask Mandate is quite something.

The Issue of Education did not work out so well for Randi Weingarten & Terry McAuliffe in VA 2021.

Crist is finished with this choice. Hernandez-Mats also was sympathetic to Fidel Castro.

[ProgressiveModerate]

DeSantis isn't winning by double digits in an R plus 3 state

By that logic, Rubio shouldn’t have won by 8 in the same year Trump won by only 1.

Rubio didn't go out of his way to become a polarizing fireband. Like there are 3 ways that Desantis outperforms Trump is by either getting a lot of Biden voters to vote for him, getting non-voter for him or hoping democratic turnout craters.

Which of these is likley ?

Most likely non-voters

Ironically non-voters in FL are voters you'd demographically expect to skew heavily D, so if this does turn out to be true, it'd be very imrpessive on DeSantis's part.

I think what's most likely if the GOP generally just does a better job at showing up allowing DeSantis a 7-8 point win, but he doesn't significantly improve on Trump's margins in many communities.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis isn't winning by double digits in an R plus 3 state

By that logic, Rubio shouldn’t have won by 8 in the same year Trump won by only 1.

Rubio didn't go out of his way to become a polarizing fireband. Like there are 3 ways that Desantis outperforms Trump is by either getting a lot of Biden voters to vote for him, getting non-voter for him or hoping democratic turnout craters.

Which of these is likley ?

Most likely non-voters

Ironically non-voters in FL are voters you'd demographically expect to skew heavily D, so if this does turn out to be true, it'd be very imrpessive on DeSantis's part.

I think what's most likely if the GOP generally just does a better job at showing up allowing DeSantis a 7-8 point win, but he doesn't significantly improve on Trump's margins in many communities.

DeSantis isn't winning by 8 pts and you know it he is only up five c'mon

[2016]

Republicans have gained another 16,000 Voters in Registration since the Book Closing for the FL Primary on July 25th. They have now nearly a 247,000 or 248,000 Registration Advantage over the Democrats.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, Crist may be well-meaning, the dude just has terrible political instincts. He already proved this over a decade ago when he ran for senate as Indy and perhaps gave the seat to Rubio. And Scott may have been beatable in 2014 and he screwed it up. Now he apparently made a poor lt. gov. choice, although I don't believe it will matter much. Lt. gov. candidates hardly matter, though this one doesn't even meet the "do no harm" requirement. I dunno why Crist even jumped back into this race instead of having a good time in the House. He just as horrible political instincts. This election will for sure end his career and it may be better that way.

FL-Dems just continue embarrass themselves here. Unfortunately, the alternative to Crist in this primary was flawed as well.

The race is Safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not safe R 5 pts is 5 pts so was AK AL and NY 19 Safe R

[2016]

Some Questions to Olowakandi:

# 1 Have you ever been to Florida?
# 2 Have you ever been part of a Political Campaign?
# 3 Do you know how difficult it is to advertise in Florida given it's a big State and has at least 5 different Media Markets?
# 4 No one wins Florida without putting in the work. You can't just win Florida on Name Recognition alone. You have to put in the Infrastructure and Crist doesn't have that. DeSantis became the 2nd Governor in Floridas Modern History after Jeb Bush to visit all 67 Florida Counties and hold Events in them.

If you can't answer the first 3 Question you are just an Armchair Political Expert that throws out Numbers. Such people should be ignored.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not talking to Rs on this forum I know where they stand this is the same Sir Muhammad that overpredicted FL in 2020 and now he's a DeSantis supporter, Lol you can look at his prediction he has FL colored D in 2020

We don't need FL but I put it on my map like OH, NC and AL, TX and sD in case we won it because you can't update your map on EDay

But, Sir Muhammad is a D not an R that's why I critique him

No your EDay map don't have to accurate some users like Sir Muhammad and Progressive Moderate think they get brownie pts for making an accurate map no you don't it's scored but I rather lose pts of overpredicted not underpredicted

[2016]

I am not talking to Rs on this forum I know where they stand this is the same Sir Muhammad that overpredicted FL in 2020 and now he's a DeSantis supporter, Lol you can look at his prediction he has FL colored D

We don't need FL but I put it on my map like OH, NC and AL, TX and sD in case we won it because you can't update your map on EDay

But, Sir Muhammad is a D not an R that's why I critique him

No your EDay map don't have to accurate some users like zsir Muhammad abd Progressive Moderate think they get brownie pts for making an accurate map no you don't it's scored but I rather lose pts of overpredicted not underpredicted

I am not talking about Predictions! Answer the first 3 Questions!

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://www.local10.com/news/local/2022/08/26/an-existential-dilemma-florida-homeowners-scramble-as-another-major-insurer-exits/

Another reason I think Desantis will win by an underwhelming margin is that he has gone out of his way to alienate democrats despite having initaly been able to build up some bipartisan support with policies like increasing teacher pay as well as protecting the everglades against Sugar farms runoff* but seems to have thrown all that bipartisan support away in an attempt to bolster his credentials for a future run for president.

The democrats have a route to victory by hammering in these kind of pocketbook issues that Desantis is ignoring in favour of culture war nonsence.

*unlike Fried who's in the pockets of big sugar