Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[crals]

One would think USAmerican users would be more familiar with the concept of "mirages"

[Mike88]

With each new update, Lula seems to be winning around 0.2-0.3% of the vote and if this trend countinues, he will get exactly 50.1% when all is counted, if my math is correct. But, it's very, very close, so, not sure about my math.

[brucejoel99]

One would think USAmerican users would be more familiar with the concept of "mirages"

If I had a nickel for every time a revered elder statesman who had to make a political comeback in order to take down a fascist incumbent after a tragedy prevented them from running in the last election had to watch that fascist incumbent start out with a lead that's destined to shrink & disappear over time, I'd have 2 nickels, which isn't a lot, but it's weird that it's happened twice.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This is one time where I hate having to say "I told you so"...but I told you so. Bolsonaro is doing much better than expected, and he might actually win, as horrifying as that prospect is for Brazil and the world.

As much as I want Bolsonaro to win he will not.

what makes you say that?

Jaichind would sell his entire family for a 5% increase in his stock portfolio.

[Duke of York]

Oh great. Who told SL about this thread?

Huh?

[jaichind]

bolsonaro is the favorite now surely

Very unlikely.  He is at 47.17% now and most likely 46.5% by 50% of votes counted.  That means he will be around 43.5% at the end.  He outperformed polls but 43.5% in the first round means defeat in the second round.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

41.20% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 22,035,860 (47.01%)
LULA- 20,700,033 (44.16%)

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Today is a chance for Brazil to correct a massive historical wrong and throw out the fascist trash, just as we did a few short years ago. I genuinely wish all my progressive Brazilian compatriots the best in this endeavor.

[omar04]

Personally I choose to believe the election gods will reverse the polls this round with Bolsonaro just barely getting under 50% and have him be crushed by Lula in the runoff 😎

[CookieDamage]

41.20% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 22,035,860 (47.01%)
LULA- 20,700,033 (44.16%)

Doomer trolls getting a lil nervous!!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

One would think USAmerican users would be more familiar with the concept of "mirages"

If I had a nickel for every time a revered elder statesman who had to make a political comeback in order to take down a fascist incumbent after a tragedy prevented them from running in the last election had to watch that fascist incumbent start out with a lead that's destined to shrink & disappear over time, I'd have 2 nickels, which isn't a lot, but it's weird that it's happened twice.

Excellent choice of meme.

[win win]

this is another Trump 2016
the polls got it wrong again, at least it will be 2% margin of victory, not 13% ridiculousnless

[Crumpets]

If Bolsonaro does better than expected and there's a second round, how does he spin this to his "he will win in the first round" supporters? Will he try to encourage them to vote for him again on the offchance he wins in the second round, or still try to burn it all down?

[rc18]

Another interesting thing, the rate of invalid/blank votes has gone down significantly.
2018 : 8.79%
2022 : 4.04%
Clear evidence of polarization in the electorate.

Also the vote for the other candidates is much lower. This looks much closer to a 2nd round election.

bolsonaro is the favorite now surely

Very unlikely.  He is at 47.17% now and most likely 46.5% by 50% of votes counted.  That means he will be around 43.5% at the end.  He outperformed polls but 43.5% in the first round means defeat in the second round.

Is that necessarily true though? The best other candidate seems centre-right. There is no large reservoir of leftist voters left for Lula to mine.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

44.17% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 23,591,925 (46.84%)
LULA- 22,324,551 (44.32%)

From The Guardian map it looks like Lula is gaining in the Amazon. At this rate he might win it off the backs of the indigenous folks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

F**k, I really need to go to bed. I was really hoping most of the vote would be in by now. Oh well.

[jaichind]

Another interesting thing, the rate of invalid/blank votes has gone down significantly.
2018 : 8.79%
2022 : 4.04%
Clear evidence of polarization in the electorate.

Also the vote for the other candidates is much lower. This looks much closer to a 2nd round election.

bolsonaro is the favorite now surely

Very unlikely.  He is at 47.17% now and most likely 46.5% by 50% of votes counted.  That means he will be around 43.5% at the end.  He outperformed polls but 43.5% in the first round means defeat in the second round.

Is that necessarily true though? The best other candidate seems centre-right. There is no large reservoir of leftist voters left for Lula to mine.

But even in such a case, the Left vote > Right vote and given the personality factor is in favor of Lula he will win in such a situation.

[Duke of York]

44.17% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 23,591,925 (46.84%)
LULA- 22,324,551 (44.32%)

From The Guardian map it looks like Lula is gaining in the Amazon. At this rate he might win it off the backs of the indigenous folks.

There is still a large portion of Lula's strongholds to come in. Its still possible he wins outright.

[Duke of York]

44.17% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 23,591,925 (46.84%)
LULA- 22,324,551 (44.32%)

From The Guardian map it looks like Lula is gaining in the Amazon. At this rate he might win it off the backs of the indigenous folks.

you think he can avoid a runoff?

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1576701179555635200

I almost think this guy is reading the thread lol

[Sestak]

God, Atlas somtoehow even worse than usual this evening. What's gotten into you all?

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1576701179555635200

I almost think this guy is reading the thread lol

He absolutely does, he copied several posts of mine on previous elections. I don't mind though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

God, Atlas somtoehow even worse than usual this evening. What's gotten into you all?

Doomers gonna doom.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

46.46% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 24,781,400 (46.69%)
LULA- 23,602,830 (44.47%)

44.17% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 23,591,925 (46.84%)
LULA- 22,324,551 (44.32%)

From The Guardian map it looks like Lula is gaining in the Amazon. At this rate he might win it off the backs of the indigenous folks.

you think he can avoid a runoff?

It's entirely possible (maybe 25% chance) but if it does it's probably around 50.1%-50.5%, perfect for Ballsonaro's antics.

[Pivaru]

In Paraná, the governor Ratinho Jr has just been reelected with with almost 70% of the vote, he supported Bolsonaro. The second place was the PT candidate, Roberto Requião, with 25,9%.

The senate race still is not decided, but Sergio Moro is leading and the incumbent, Alvaro Dias, is in third, he seems to be underperforming so far.