latest Betfair odds

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Why's Bernie so low there? He's at 13 on Predict It.

He's low on Betfair Exchange compared to the sites with prices set by bookies, but even there, he's not above an 11% chance on any of the bookie sites:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

8 -> 1 / (1+8) = 11% chance, while 16 -> 1 / (1 + 16) = 6% chance.

I guess the bookies just don't like him then.

Or people realize he is very unlikely to be the nominee, if he even runs.

Predict It traders don't seem to have "realized" this. Funny that someone with the name Bloomberg in their name doesn't like the free market of Predict It.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why's Bernie so low there? He's at 13 on Predict It.

He's low on Betfair Exchange compared to the sites with prices set by bookies, but even there, he's not above an 11% chance on any of the bookie sites:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

8 -> 1 / (1+8) = 11% chance, while 16 -> 1 / (1 + 16) = 6% chance.

I guess the bookies just don't like him then.

Or people realize he is very unlikely to be the nominee, if he even runs.

Predict It traders don't seem to have "realized" this. Funny that someone with the name Bloomberg in their name doesn't like the free market of Predict It.

For someone of his stature and name recognition, I would consider the 11% chance of being the nominee to be very low.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL at jfern thinking that the bookies are part of a giant anti-Sanders conspiracy.

[Mr. Morden]

Betfair Exchange is peer-to-peer like PredictIt, and it has Sanders as low as anyone else.  Also, Sanders is at 11 on PredictIt right now, not 13.

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic nominee
Harris 25.0
O’Rourke 23.1
Biden 13.9
Gabbard 7.5
Warren 7.0
Sanders 6.2
Gillibrand 5.7
Brown 5.6
Klobuchar 5.5

Republican nominee
Trump 66.7
Haley 6.6
Pence 5.7
Kasich 5.6
Romney 3.8
Corker 2.8
Ryan 2.8

Four years ago at this point:

Democratic nominee
Clinton 75.2
Warren 12.8
Biden 6.2
Gilllibrand 3.1
O'Malley 3.1
Cuomo 2.5
Webb 2.2

Republican nominee
Bush 29.2
Romney 17.4
Rubio 13.4
Paul 13.1
Walker 10.9
Christie 8.8
Cruz 6.4
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 5.0
Ryan 3.1
Jindal 2.9
Pence 2.8
Martinez 2.2
Santorum 1.8

Eight years ago  on Intrade:

GOP nomination
Romney 21.1
Palin 13.6
Thune 11.7
Pawlenty 10.8
Huckabee 8.7
Daniels 8.0
Gingrich 4.3
Pence 3.5
Barbour 2.1
Giuliani 1.9
Bachmann 1.8
Christie 1.7
Paul 1.7
Huntsman 1.6
Trump 1.5

Twelve years ago today on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1107586#msg1107586

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[Landslide Lyndon]

Why the hell is Gabbard so high? Are there really people out there who think that she can win the nomination?

[SCNCmod]

Why the hell is Gabbard so high? Are there really people out there who think that she can win the nomination?

Baffles me also- she has no chance.

It will be between Beto, Kamala, and probably Sherrod Brown (he would be a definitely Top 3 Bet IMO, as the dark horse... if his Senate seat were not an issue).

[TarHeelDem]

Still think Trump's rather high.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders gains (now back up to 4th place) as O’Rourke sinks:

Democratic nominee
Harris 26.3
O’Rourke 17.9
Biden 13.9
Sanders 8.1
Warren 6.8
Gabbard 6.4
Gillibrand 5.7
Brown 5.0
Klobuchar 4.8
Booker 3.4

Four years ago at this time:

Dems
Clinton 80.0
Warren 12.8
Biden 6.2

GOP
Bush 28.0
Romney 16.3
Walker 14.9
Rubio 13.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 8.4
Cruz 6.4
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 5.0

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

GOP nomination
Romney 22.5
Thune 12.9
Palin 12.8
Huckabee 9.8
Pawlenty 9.8
Daniels 7.9
Gingrich 4.7
Bachmann 4.0
Barbour 3.0
Huntsman 3.0
Giuliani 2.9
Christie 1.9
DeMint 1.7
Trump 1.6
Johnson 1.5

Twelve years ago today on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1109057#msg1109057

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[Mr. Morden]

O’Rourke’s been dropping like a rock (O’Rock?).  Biden now ahead of him for 2nd place:

Harris 25.0
Biden 13.9
O’Rourke 13.2
Sanders 8.1
Warren 7.0
Brown 6.4
Gabbard 6.0
Klobuchar 5.6
Gillibrand 5.4
Booker 3.4
Clinton 2.9
Newsom 2.9

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Gillibrand seems substantially undervalued.

[NyIndy]

Gillibrand seems substantially undervalued.

Was just gonna say that. Seems like it would be a good time to buy Gillibrand.

[RaphaelDLG]

Gabbard seems substantially overvalued

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Gabbard seems substantially overvalued

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gabbard seems substantially overvalued

Gabbard would be overvalued at 1.

[Mr. Morden]

Booker’s announcement bumps him back up to 7th place:

Democratic nominee
Harris 25.0
Biden 13.9
O’Rourke 11.4
Sanders 8.8
Warren 7.8
Brown 7.5
Booker 5.9
Gillibrand 5.7
Klobuchar 5.6
Gabbard 5.3

Republican nominee
Trump 66.7
Haley 6.6
Pence 6.4
Kasich 5.0
Romney 3.8

Four years ago today:

Bush 30.0
Walker 20.8
Rubio 17.4
Paul 11.4
Christie 7.2
Cruz 5.5
Perry 5.5
Huckabee 4.0
Pence 2.8
Jindal 2.2
Carson 1.8
Martinez 1.8
Santorum 1.8

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2804148#msg2804148

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Twelve years ago today on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1115434#msg1115434

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[Mr. Morden]

O’Rourke’s Oprah interview has given him a big boost.  Now back in second place:

Democratic nominee
Harris 26.3
O’Rourke 16.7
Biden 13.9
Sanders 8.8
Booker 7.5
Brown 6.8
Klobuchar 6.8
Warren 6.6
Gillibrand 5.7

Republican nominee
Trump 69.2
Pence 7.0
Haley 6.6
Kasich 5.0
Romney 3.8

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Warren 10.5
Biden 4.0
Gillibrand 2.5
Cuomo 2.1
O'Malley 2.1
Webb 1.8

Republicans
Bush 30.1
Walker 19.6
Rubio 17.4
Paul 10.5
Christie 6.8
Perry 5.5
Cruz 5.0
Huckabee 4.0
Carson 1.8
Jindal 1.8
Martinez 1.8
Santorum 1.8
Pence 1.4
Romney 1.3

Eight years ago on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2805654#msg2805654

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Twelve years ago on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1120968#msg1120968

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[Mr. Morden]

This probably won't last, but for now Klobuchar's entry into the race has bumped her up to fourth place:

Harris 26.3
O’Rourke 16.1
Biden 14.3
Klobuchar 8.8
Sanders 8.1
Brown 7.2
Warren 7.2
Gabbard 6.0
Gillibrand 5.7

[Mr. Morden]

Biden's back up to a tie for 2nd place with O'Rourke:

Harris 26.3
Biden 16.1
O’Rourke 16.1
Klobuchar 8.8
Sanders 8.8
Brown 7.5
Warren 6.4
Booker 5.9

On the GOP side, there isn’t even a contract available for Weld yet, but Trump is actually *up* in recent days to 74.4.

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 76.9
Warren 9.5
Biden 3.3
Gillibrand 2.5

Republicans
Bush 31.0
Walker 19.6
Rubio 17.4
Paul 13.1
Christie 5.4
Cruz 5.0
Perry 4.3
Huckabee 3.8
Ryan 2.9
Carson 1.5

Eight years ago on Intrade:

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 23.1
Palin 10.9
Daniels 10.2
Pawlenty 8.9
Huckabee 8.4
Thune 8.0
Huntsman 5.2
Gingrich 5.0
Christie 3.1
Barbour 2.7
Bachmann 2.6
Paul 2.1
Trump 1.8
J. Bush 1.6
Giuliani 1.5

Twelve years ago on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1128140#msg1128140

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[Mr. Morden]

Sanders’s entry into the race has bumped him into second place, and dropped O’Rourke down to fourth:

Harris 25.0
Sanders 16.7
Biden 15.4
O’Rourke 10.5
Brown 7.5
Klobuchar 7.2
Warren 6.8
Booker 5.7
Gabbard 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

O’Rourke teasing a decision has greatly boosted his price (now in 2nd with Biden):

Harris 25.0
Biden 17.9
O’Rourke 17.9
Sanders 16.1
Brown 7.5
Klobuchar 7.5
Warren 6.4

The GOP race four years ago at this point:

Bush 30.5
Walker 20.8
Rubio 17.7
Paul 10.9
Cruz 5.0
Christie 4.3
Huckabee 3.8
Carson 2.9
Ryan 2.9
Pence 2.5

Eight years ago on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2829440#msg2829440

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[Mr. Morden]

Sanders has rebounded to second place, and has narrowed the gap with Harris:

Democratic nominee
Harris 23.1
Sanders 18.5
Biden 16.1
O’Rourke 15.2
Klobuchar 6.6
Brown 5.6
Booker 5.3
Warren 5.3
Gabbard 4.0

Republican nominee
Trump 73.3
Haley 5.3
Pence 4.8
Cotton 3.4
Kasich 3.4

[Mr. Morden]

Brown out:

Harris 25.0
Sanders 19.2
Biden 17.9
O’Rourke 14.7
Booker 6.2
Klobuchar 5.7
Warren 4.8
Gabbard 4.3

[Mr. Morden]

Both Sanders and Biden are gaining, narrowing the gap with Harris:

Harris 23.1
Sanders 22.2
Biden 19.2
O’Rourke 14.3
Booker 4.8
Klobuchar 4.5
Warren 4.5
Gabbard 3.4

[Mr. Morden]

Biden and Harris now tied for the lead, with Sanders just a few tenths behind, so it’s effectively a 3-way tie….and Yang has moved up into 8th place:

Biden 21.7
Harris 21.7
Sanders 21.3
O’Rourke 14.7
Warren 5.3
Booker 4.8
Klobuchar 4.5
Yang 4.0