latest Betfair odds

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can think of one fairly massive circumstance that has changed in Trump's favor: Mueller.

Has it though? Half the Democratic caucus in the House now support impeachment.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I can think of one fairly massive circumstance that has changed in Trump's favor: Mueller.

Has it though? Half the Democratic caucus in the House now support impeachment.

Yes, but it's now clear that Mueller won't deliver some devastating findings that would make Trump's removal a slam dunk.  Without something like that, the House may impeach, but the Senate won't vote to remove.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can think of one fairly massive circumstance that has changed in Trump's favor: Mueller.

Has it though? Half the Democratic caucus in the House now support impeachment.

Yes, but it's now clear that Mueller won't deliver some devastating findings that would make Trump's removal a slam dunk.  Without something like that, the House may impeach, but the Senate won't vote to remove.

Mueller could have played video footage of Trump murdering a child and their puppy while admitting to it and bragging about it, and The Republican Senate would end up acquitting him. Conviction isn't the point anymore.

[eric82oslo]

I can think of one fairly massive circumstance that has changed in Trump's favor: Mueller.

Has it though? Half the Democratic caucus in the House now support impeachment.

Yes, but it's now clear that Mueller won't deliver some devastating findings that would make Trump's removal a slam dunk.  Without something like that, the House may impeach, but the Senate won't vote to remove.

Mueller could have played video footage of Trump murdering a child and their puppy while admitting to it and bragging about it, and The Republican Senate would end up acquitting him. Conviction isn't the point anymore.

Trump has already murdered several children by proxy (along the border, in detention facilities and in Puerto Rico), yet Republicans still don't care.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren nearly caught up to Biden now, as Harris drops hard:

Up: Biden, Warren, Sanders
Down: Harris, Buttigieg

Biden 26.9
Warren 26.6
Harris 14.9
Sanders 12.8
Buttigieg 6.8
Gabbard 4.0
Yang 4.0
Booker 2.5
Clinton 1.8
O’Rourke 1.8

Four years ago at this point:

Bush 41.8
Walker 17.7
Rubio 15.8
Trump 9.1
Fiorina 6.8
Huckabee 6.2
Kasich 5.7
Paul 5.3
Cruz 4.0
Carson 3.8
Christie 3.3

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2984231#msg2984231

Romney 33.5
Perry 32.0
Huntsman 7.5
Pawlenty 7.0
Palin 6.7
Bachmann 6.1
Paul 3.7
Christie 1.8
Giuliani 1.8
Gingrich 0.6
Johnson 0.5
Pataki 0.5
Ryan 0.5
Cain 0.4

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1257958#msg1257958

Democrats
Clinton 54.0
Obama 30.1
Edwards 7.0
Gore 5.0
Richardson 2.6
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.6

Republicans
Giuliani 33.0
Thompson 32.3
Romney 19.4
McCain 6.3
Paul 3.3
Gingrich 3.1
Hagel 1.3
Huckabee 1.1
Rice 0.6
Tancredo 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

Warren takes the lead, now narrowly ahead of Biden.  Meanwhile, Sanders may be close to overtaking Harris for 3rd place:

Up: Warren
Down: Harris

Democrats
Warren 27.4
Biden 26.6
Harris 13.8
Sanders 13.1
Buttigieg 6.8
Yang 3.8
Gabbard 3.3
Booker 2.8
Clinton 1.9
O’Rourke 1.6

Republicans
Trump 92.3
Pence 2.8
Rubio 2.6

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 78.7
Sanders 13.8
Biden 7.8

Republicans
Bush 40.3
Walker 16.8
Rubio 14.5
Trump 7.5
Kasich 6.2
Huckabee 5.0
Carson 4.2
Fiorina 4.2
Cruz 4.0
Paul 4.0
Christie 3.3

[Eraserhead]

Warren overtaking Biden is pretty ridiculous. I say this as someone who would greatly prefer Warren to Biden.

[Skill and Chance]

Warren overtaking Biden is pretty ridiculous. I say this as someone who would greatly prefer Warren to Biden.

The overwhelming majority of betting market participants are bachelor's degree + in education.  I am sure that skews the results (in this case, toward Warren and Buttigieg and against Biden and Sanders).

[Mr. Morden]

Most of the betting sites with prices set by bookies still have Biden narrowly ahead of Warren, though it's close.  At least one such site has them in an exact tie though.  The peer-to-peer sites like Betfair (or specifically, Betfair Exchange which is what I quote in this thread) are split between Biden being slightly ahead and Warren slightly ahead.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders moves up into 3rd place as Harris keeps dropping:

Up: Warren, Sanders
Down: Biden, Harris

Democrats
Warren 28.4
Biden 24.7
Sanders 14.9
Harris 12.8
Buttigieg 7.0
Yang 4.3
Gabbard 2.9
Booker 2.4
Clinton 2.1
O’Rourke 1.6

Republicans
Trump 91.7
Pence 2.8
Haley 2.1
Ryan 1.9

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Sanders 16.3

Republicans
Bush 38.0
Rubio 16.3
Walker 14.9
Trump 7.8
Kasich 6.5
Fiorina 5.8
Cruz 5.3
Huckabee 4.2
Carson 4.0
Paul 4.0

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2990488#msg2990488

Perry 35.7
Romney 30.5
Palin 7.0
Huntsman 6.1
Bachmann 6.0
Paul 4.0
Giuliani 1.8
Christie 1.5
Gingrich 1.2
Cain 0.6
Pataki 0.5
Ryan 0.5
Johnson 0.4
Rubio 0.4
Santorum 0.4

Twelve year ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1265021#msg1265021

Democrats
Clinton 59.1
Obama 23.7
Edwards 7.4
Gore 7.2
Richardson 2.2
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1
Clark 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 35.5
Thompson 23.0
Romney 22.1
McCain 6.4
Paul 5.5
Gingrich 3.5
Huckabee 3.5
Rice 0.6
Hagel 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Brownback 0.1
J. Bush 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Warren's now either leading or tied for first with Biden on all the major betting sites.

[eric82oslo]

Over the last 3-5 days, Yang has almost caught up with Buttigieg in the odds market, there is now hardly daylight between them anymore. Which is pretty interesting all the time he was the leader in fundraising last quarter and is the clear darling of the ruling class, Democratic establishment and the majority of the Hollywood elite.

Longest odds for the top ten candidates right now:

1. Warren: 2.4
2. Biden: 2.75

3. Sanders: 7
4. Harris: 7.5

5. Buttigieg: 16
6. Yang: 20

7. Gabbard: 40
8. Booker: 50
9. Beto: 66
10. Steyer: 80


Since bookmakers on average make somewhere between a 20% and 35% profit on each bet (my best estimate), the actual odds for each candidate is somewhat lower than shown above. So for instance, the chance of Warren becoming the nominee right now is about 30%, for Sanders about 10%, for Buttigieg about 4.5%, for Gabbard about 2% and for Steyer about 1%. Likewise, the chance for either Warren, Biden, Sanders or Harris winning the nomination is around 76% as we speak.


All numbers: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[eric82oslo]

Many betting sites are offering odds on who will win the general election, but the only one I’ve found offering Democratic nomination odds is Betway:

https://sports.betway.com/#/politics/us/us-presidential-election/985177_us-presidential-election-democratic-nominee-2020

Warren 28.6
Kaine 18.2
Booker 12.5
Cuomo 11.1
Clinton 9.1
M. Obama 9.1
de Blasio 6.7
Castro 5.9
Klobuchar 5.3
Duckworth 4.8
Harris 4.8
Sanders 4.8

7 out of these 12 possible candidates ended up running - not bad. And: Warren is still number 1, which is interesting - and strong. Some candidates have taken huge falls though, like Booker and de Blasio. And to a lesser extent Castro and Klobuchar. Biggest jump out of these 7 or 12: Sanders. Yet out of all the current candidates, Buttigieg and Yang have increased their chances the most of course.

[Mr. Morden]

Steyer’s made it into the top 10.

Up: Warren, Biden, Haley
Down: Sanders, Harris, Trump

Democrats
Warren 30.5
Biden 28.0
Sanders 12.4
Harris 11.2
Buttigieg 6.8
Yang 3.8
Clinton 2.5
Booker 2.4
Gabbard 2.2
Steyer 1.5

Republicans
Trump 88.9
Haley 3.3
Pence 3.1
Romney 1.9

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 70.9
Sanders 13.8
Biden 12.8

Republicans
Bush 37.2
Rubio 15.3
Trump 15.3
Walker 13.4
Kasich 5.5
Cruz 5.0
Fiorina 4.3
Carson 3.3
Christie 2.6
Huckabee 2.6
Paul 2.6

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3000001#msg3000001

Perry 35.9
Romney 31.5
Huntsman 7.0
Palin 5.5
Bachmann 5.4
Paul 3.0
Christie 2.1
Giuliani 2.0
Pataki 2.0
Gingrich 1.0
Ryan 0.6
Bolton 0.5
Cain 0.5
Rubio 0.5
Johnson 0.4

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1272568#msg1272568

Democrats
Clinton 66.7
Obama 18.2
Gore 7.4
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 1.2
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 41.0
Romney 26.0
Thompson 19.4
McCain 6.0
Paul 3.6
Gingrich 3.5
Huckabee 3.3
Rice 0.5
Hagel 0.3
J. Bush 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Brownback 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Warren expands her lead….

Up: Warren, Sanders, Harris, Yang
Down: Biden, Buttigieg, Gabbard

Warren 34.5
Biden 24.7
Sanders 13.8
Harris 12.4
Buttigieg 5.8
Yang 4.8
Booker 2.8
Clinton 2.2
Gabbard 1.1
O’Rourke 1.1

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 70.4
Sanders 13.4
Biden 12.8
O’Malley 2.5

Republicans
Bush 39.1
Rubio 15.4
Trump 14.5
Walker 10.5
Kasich 7.2
Carson 5.0
Cruz 3.6
Huckabee 3.4
Fiorina 2.6
Paul 2.6
Christie 2.4

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3009958#msg3009958

Perry 38.5
Romney 31.1
Huntsman 7.0
Palin 6.5
Bachmann 4.4
Paul 3.4
Christie 2.7
Giuliani 1.9
Gingrich 1.5
Cain 0.6
Ryan 0.6
Johnson 0.5
Bolton 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Santorum 0.3

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1278586#msg1278586

Democrats
Clinton 67.0
Obama 17.1
Gore 7.3
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 1.1
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 38.0
Romney 23.0
Thompson 22.4
Paul 4.5
McCain 3.8
Huckabee 3.5
Gingrich 3.3
Rice 0.5
Hagel 0.2
J. Bush 0.1
Tancredo 0.1

[eric82oslo]

RCP has now officially launched their own betting odds tracker (maybe it was a while ago, as I haven't been visiting the site much lately): https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/democratic_2020_nomination/

Their odds are a compilation and average from 9 different bookmakers.

Only 4 candidates have been leading the RCP betting odds average since they started their tracking on February 18. The betting leader has changed about 9 times:

From February 18 till March 11: Harris (up to 26.4% chance)
On March 12: Biden (20.6%)
On March 13: Harris (20.9%)
From March 14 till March 29: Biden (up to 23.6%)
From March 30 till April 29: Sanders (up to 22.9%)
From April 30 till June 29: Biden (up to 34%)
From June 30 till July 31: Harris (up to 34.2%)
From August 1 till August 14: Biden (up to 29.4%)
From August 15 till September 3 [today]: Warren (up to 33.8%)

So far, the betting odds leader has usually been ahead for either 2 weeks, 1 month or 2 months at a time. Odd and curious, yet true.

Here are the betting odds peaks for some of the other candidates so far:

Buttigieg: 18.3% on April 24
Beto: 18.0% on March 24
Klobuchar: 7.1% on March 8
Yang: 6.3% on June 27-28
Booker: 5.7% on March 7-10
Gabbard: 5.2% on February 18-19
Bennet: 3.5% on June 26 & 28

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Warren, Yang
Down: Biden, Harris

Warren 35.5
Biden 23.2
Sanders 14.5
Harris 11.4
Buttigieg 5.8
Yang 5.7
Booker 2.6
Clinton 2.6
O’Rourke 1.0
Gabbard 0.9
M. Obama 0.9

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 69.4
Biden 16.3
Sanders 15.4

Republicans
Bush 38.0
Rubio 15.8
Trump 14.9
Walker 9.1
Carson 8.1
Kasich 7.0
Fiorina 6.0
Huckabee 4.2
Cruz 3.8
Paul 3.1

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3014096#msg3014096

Perry 39.0
Romney 32.9
Huntsman 7.0
Palin 6.0
Paul 4.0
Bachmann 3.9
Christie 2.6
Gingrich 1.5
Giuliani 1.1
Cain 0.9
Johnson 0.5
J. Bush 0.3
Rubio 0.3
Ryan 0.3
Santorum 0.3

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1283795#msg1283795

Democrats
Clinton 69.0
Obama 16.6
Edwards 7.2
Gore 6.6
Richardson 1.1
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 38.0
Thompson 23.2
Romney 23.1
McCain 4.7
Paul 4.0
Gingrich 3.2
Huckabee 3.1
Rice 0.5
Hagel 0.2
Hunter 0.1

[IceSpear]

I like how Biden, still polling way ahead nationally and in the early states, isn't even doing that much better than he was in 2015 at this point when he obviously wasn't even going to run, lol.

[Mr. Morden]

I like how Biden, still polling way ahead nationally and in the early states,

I wouldn't say he's polling "way ahead" in the early states (aside from SC).

[Mr. Morden]

Harris is dropping like a rock, and now tied with Yang for 4th place.

Up: Warren, Biden, Clinton
Down: Harris, Sanders

Warren 36.8
Biden 24.7
Sanders 13.4
Harris 6.5
Yang 6.5
Buttigieg 5.0
Clinton 4.2
Booker 2.6
O’Rourke 1.6
Castro 1.0
Gabbard 1.0

[Mr. Morden]

Warren keeps expanding her lead, and Harris also regains some ground after her initial post-debate cratering…now no longer tied with Yang.

Democrats
Warren 38.1
Biden 24.1
Sanders 13.1
Harris 7.5
Yang 5.7
Buttigieg 4.3
Clinton 3.6
Booker 2.8
O’Rourke 1.5
Gabbard 1.2

Republicans
Trump 90.0
Pence 3.6
Haley 2.9
Ryan 1.2
Sasse 1.2

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 68.0
Biden 17.4
Sanders 15.4

Republicans
Bush 36.1
Rubio 15.4
Trump 14.9
Walker 9.1
Carson 7.2
Kasich 7.2
Fiorina 6.2
Huckabee 4.2
Cruz 4.0
Christie 2.2
Paul 2.2

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3020686#msg3020686

Romney 40.0
Perry 34.9
Huntsman 5.9
Palin 5.0
Bachmann 3.2
Paul 3.2
Christie 1.8
Gingrich 1.4
Giuliani 1.3
Cain 0.7
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.6
J. Bush 0.3
Ryan 0.2
Bolton 0.2
Rubio 0.2

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1291903#msg1291903

Democrats
Clinton 67.9
Obama 16.9
Edwards 7.6
Gore 7.2
Richardson 0.5
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 35.9
Thompson 24.7
Romney 22.6
McCain 5.2
Paul 4.2
Gingrich 3.4
Huckabee 3.4
Rice 0.5
Hunter 0.1

[rhg2052]

Literally who is still betting that Clinton will be the nominee?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Literally who is still betting that Clinton will be the nominee?

Brokered convention folk?

[Mr. Morden]

Biden has regained some ground since last week, but still well behind Warren.  Clinton also gaining more for some reason(!).  And it’s not just Betfair.  Clinton is at about 5% to win the nomination across all the betting sites right now:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/democratic_2020_nomination/

Up: Biden, Clinton, Trump
Down: Sanders, Pence

Democrats
Warren 37.8
Biden 26.6
Sanders 11.9
Harris 6.8
Yang 6.0
Buttigieg 5.0
Clinton 5.0
Booker 2.2
O’Rourke 1.6
Gabbard 1.1
Klobuchar 1.1

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Pence 2.5
Haley 2.4
Sasse 1.0
Kasich 0.9
Ryan 0.9

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Biden 19.3
Sanders 13.8

Republicans
Bush 35.6
Rubio 17.4
Trump 14.1
Fiorina 10.0
Walker 6.5
Carson 5.4
Christie 5.3
Kasich 4.8
Huckabee 3.8
Cruz 3.6

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3029838#msg3029838

Romney 38.0
Perry 35.9
Palin 9.5
Huntsman 4.5
Christie 3.3
Paul 3.0
Bachmann 1.9
Gingrich 1.2
Giuliani 1.2
Johnson 0.5
Huckabee 0.3
Santorum 0.3
J. Bush 0.2
Cain 0.2
Ryan 0.2

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1299213#msg1299213

Democrats
Clinton 66.7
Obama 16.6
Gore 7.9
Edwards 7.0
Richardson 0.5
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 35.4
Thompson 25.1
Romney 23.0
Paul 5.5
McCain 4.3
Gingrich 3.8
Huckabee 3.5
Rice 0.5
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Warren has been surging like mad these last few days, now over 45, and more than double the share price of Biden.  On the GOP side, Ukraine has taken a bite out of Trump’s share price.  He drops while Pence gains.

Up: Warren, Buttigieg, Gabbard, Pence, Haley
Down: Biden, Sanders, Clinton, Booker, Trump

Democrats
Warren 47.6
Biden 20.1
Sanders 9.1
Harris 6.2
Buttigieg 6.0
Yang 6.0
Clinton 3.6
Gabbard 2.1
O’Rourke 1.5
Booker 1.0
Klobuchar 1.0

Republicans
Trump 84.2
Pence 7.0
Haley 5.0
Sasse 1.5
Romney 1.2