latest Betfair odds

[Eraserhead]

So Gabbard was significantly ahead of Sanders on this thing like a month or so ago? I wish I had noticed that. We have some real mental giants using this thing.

[KaiserDave]

These "odds" are nonsense, who in their right mind would bet on Yang?

[Mr. Morden]

Yang up to 5th place:

Biden 22.2
Harris 21.3
Sanders 20.8
O’Rourke 17.9
Yang 7.0
Warren 5.0
Booker 4.8

[BlueSwan]

Yang surge, wtf??

[Comrade Funk]

Yang surge, wtf??

Virgin 4chan trolls

[RaphaelDLG]

Yang surge, wtf??

Realistically Yang has no chance of winning but he has really taken off and looks like he has a good chance at being the Ron Paul of this cycle (having a devoted following, exceeding expectations, etc)

[Sestak]

Yang is probably a reasonable short now. Though depending, it may be better to wait until a debate.

[7,052,770]

Yang surge, wtf??

If no one else puts UBI into their platforms, Yang is going to do really well in the Rust Belt.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-O’Rourke announcement, Sanders now leads, but it’s a ridiculously tight 4-way race:

Sanders 21.3
Biden 20.5
Harris 19.6
O’Rourke 18.9
Yang 6.8
Warren 5.3
Booker 4.0
Gabbard 4.0
Klobuchar 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Harris, Sanders, and Biden now virtually in a 3-way tie, as O’Rourke falls back to Earth a bit:

Democrats
Harris 20.1
Sanders 20.1
Biden 19.6
O’Rourke 15.4
Yang 7.0
Booker 4.8
Warren 4.3
Gabbard 4.2
Klobuchar 4.0

Republicans
Trump 73.9
Pence 11.4
Haley 5.3
Kasich 3.4
Rubio 3.4

Four years ago today:

Bush 30.5
Walker 21.7
Rubio 16.8
Paul 10.5
Cruz 4.2
Perry 4.2
Christie 4.0
Huckabee 3.8
Carson 2.9
Pence 2.6

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.6
Pawlenty 18.1
Daniels 10.2
Huckabee 7.2
Palin 6.2
Gingrich 5.7
Bachmann 4.2
Barbour 4.2
Huntsman 4.0
Christie 2.8
Trump 2.5
Paul 1.4
J. Bush 1.0
Giuliani 1.0
Rubio 0.9

Twelve years ago today on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1149606#msg1149606

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 31.0
Gore 9.7
Edwards 8.7
Richardson 3.8
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.0
McCain 23.0
Romney 14.6
F. Thompson 7.1
Gingrich 3.9
Hagel 3.0
Brownback 2.5
Huckabee 2.2
Rice 1.8
Bloomberg 1.0
T. Thompson 0.8
Cheney 0.5
Bush 0.4
Paul 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

The top 3 remain virtually tied, though now with Biden back in a (super narrow) lead for 1st.  And Buttigieg is now up to 7th place:

Biden 20.5
Harris 20.1
Sanders 20.1
O’Rourke 16.8
Yang 7.2
Booker 4.5
Buttigieg 3.8
Warren 3.6
Gabbard 3.3
Klobuchar 3.1

[eric82oslo]

Oddschecker has officially placed Andrew Yang on 5th place now.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Why isn't Gravel on top?

[BlueSwan]

Biden 20.5
Super overrated. He hasn't even announced yet and is extremely likely to bomb if he does. I do not have him in my top 4 most likely candidates.

Harris 20.1
Should be higher. The most likely candidate currently in my view.

Sanders 20.1
Yeah, sure. I don't think Sanders wins but I have to admit that there are several plausible scenarios where he wins.

O’Rourke 16.8
Too low. I have him second to Harris at the moment. Could bomb for sure, but his upside is massive. Probably the only candidate who could potentially just run away with the primary quickly.

Yang 7.2
LOL, no. In a year full of mainstream candidates, Yang might have the alt-dem line for himself and could post serious numbers. This is not such a year.

Booker 4.5
Too low. The guy has what it takes. Harris is a problem for him, but if she bombs, then he is immediately Tier 1.

Buttigieg 3.8
Seems about right.

Warren 3.6
Also seems about right. Certainly not too low. Warrens chances are slim and I'm glad that most people seem to have figured this out by now (Nate Silver had her as the most likely candidate recently, proving that he should stick to analyzing data).

Gabbard 3.3
This seems crazy to me. I just don't see any scenario where Gabbard wins.

Klobuchar 3.1
Probably about right. Should be the moderate segments choice, but the abusive boss stories hurt her. Republicans can get away with that, democrats probably can't.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump gains, creeping up on 80.  Yangsanity eases a bit, while Buttigieg is now up to 6th place:

Democrats
Biden 20.8
Harris 20.1
Sanders 20.1
O’Rourke 17.4
Yang 5.9
Buttigieg 4.8
Warren 4.2
Booker 3.8
Gabbard 3.3
Klobuchar 3.3
Bullock 2.4

Republicans
Trump 78.6
Pence 4.2
Haley 3.1
Kasich 3.1
Sasse 1.6

Winning Individual
Trump 35.7
Sanders 13.5
Biden 13.2
Harris 11.9
O’Rourke 10.5
Yang 2.9
Buttigieg 2.3
Warren 2.3

Four years ago today:

GOP nomination
Bush 33.9
Walker 21.7
Rubio 17.4
Paul 10.5
Christie 4.0
Huckabee 3.8
Cruz 3.4
Perry 3.4
Carson 2.9
Pence 2.6
Trump 2.5

Winning individual
Clinton 41.5
Bush 17.4
Rubio 8.4
Walker 7.8
Paul 5.3
Warren 5.3
Biden 3.3
Christie 1.9

Roughly eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

GOP nominee
Romney 24.1
Pawlenty 19.3
Daniels 8.9
Huckabee 6.8
Palin 6.4
Barbour 5.2
Gingrich 5.0
Bachmann 4.8
Huntsman 3.9
Christie 3.0
Trump 2.6
Paul 1.7
Giuliani 1.0
J. Bush 0.9

Winning individual
Obama 60.8
Romney 11.6
Pawlenty 9.0
Huckabee 4.9
Daniels 4.7
Gingrich 2.9
Paul 2.0
Biden 1.6
Palin 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Buttigieg up to 5th place on the Dem. side, and Trump breaks 80 on the GOP side:

Democrats
Biden 20.8
Harris 19.6
Sanders 19.6
O’Rourke 18.0
Buttigieg 5.8
Yang 5.5
Booker 3.7
Warren 3.6
Klobuchar 3.1
Gabbard 2.9

Republicans
Trump 84.2
Haley 4.3
Pence 4.2
Kasich 3.1

[Minnesota Mike]

Buttigieg up to 5th place on the Dem. side, and Trump breaks 80 on the GOP side:

Democrats
Biden 20.8
Harris 19.6
Sanders 19.6
O’Rourke 18.0
Buttigieg 5.8
Yang 5.5
Booker 3.7
Warren 3.6
Klobuchar 3.1
Gabbard 2.9

Republicans
Trump 84.2
Haley 4.3
Pence 4.2
Kasich 3.1

Buy Biden, Buttigieg, Trump. Sell Harris, O’Rourke, Yang.

[eric82oslo]

Buttigieg is about to surpass Yang for the 5th place on Oddschecker.com, however even Yang's numbers are mostly still shortening.

Buttigieg's shortest odds are 12, Yang's are 13.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[eric82oslo]

Buttigieg just surpassed Yang on Oddschecker and the 17 different bookmakers they're currently tracking.

Oddschecker's full ranking as of March 26:

1. Bernie Sanders - 4.5
2. Kamala Harris - 4.5
3. Joe Biden - 5
4. Beto O'Rourke - 5

5. Pete Buttigieg - 17
6. Andrew Yang - 18
7. Elizabeth Warren - 25
8. Cory Booker - 25
9. Amy Klobuchar - 33
10. Tulsi Gabbard - 33

11. Kirsten Gillibrand - 66
12. John Hickenlooper - 66
13. Julian Castro - 80
14. Jay Inslee - 80
(Steve Bullock - 80)
(Eric Swalwell - 100)
(Tim Ryan - 100)
(Michael Bennet - 100)
(Seth Moulton - 100)
(Bill de Blasio - 100)
(Stacey Abrams - 100)
15. John Delaney - 100
16. Marianne Williamson - 150

[Mr. Morden]

Biden takes a hit, now tied for 3rd place with O'Rourke.  Harris and Sanders now tied for 1st.  And Buttigieg continues to gain:

Democrats
Harris 21.3
Sanders 21.3
Biden 17.4
O’Rourke 17.4
Buttigieg 8.8
Yang 4.8
Warren 4.3
Booker 3.7
Klobuchar 3.1
Gabbard 2.3

Republicans
Trump 86.7
Pence 6.2
Haley 4.8

[Mr. Morden]

More volatility today, as the Biden collapse continues, with him now dropping below 15.  In contrast, Sanders jumps ahead, now alone in 1st place.  And Buttigieg above 10:

Sanders 24.7
Harris 21.3
O’Rourke 17.4
Biden 14.9
Buttigieg 10.5
Yang 5.0
Warren 4.3

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

More volatility today, as the Biden collapse continues, with him now dropping below 15. 

Bye bye!

[Mr. Morden]

Biden still dropping:

Sanders 22.6
Harris 22.2
O’Rourke 15.8
Biden 12.8
Buttigieg 10.7
Yang 5.0
Warren 4.2
Booker 3.3
Gabbard 2.6
Klobuchar 2.6

Four years ago at this point:

Bush 35.6
Walker 19.3
Rubio 18.3
Paul 11.4
Cruz 5.3
Christie 3.6
Perry 3.3
Huckabee 2.6
Pence 2.6
Trump 2.6
Carson 2.5

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2859589#msg2859589

Romney 25.0
Pawlenty 17.7
Daniels 8.6
Huntsman 6.7
Bachmann 6.6
Huckabee 6.6
Palin 5.7
Barbour 5.0
Gingrich 4.0
Trump 3.2
Christie 2.5
Paul 1.7
J. Bush 1.2
Johnson 1.2
Giuliani 1.1

Twelve years ago at this point on Tradesports:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1160829#msg1160829

Democrats
Clinton 49.4
Obama 28.5
Gore 10.5
Edwards 7.5
Richardson 3.9
Clark 0.5
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 33.4
McCain 21.5
Thompson 17.0
Romney 15.0
Gingrich 3.4
Hagel 2.2
Rice 1.7
Huckabee 1.0
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 1.0
Bloomberg 0.6
Cheney 0.5
Tancredo 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2

[SCNCmod]

Biden 20.5
Super overrated. He hasn't even announced yet and is extremely likely to bomb if he does. I do not have him in my top 4 most likely candidates.

Harris 20.1
Should be higher. The most likely candidate currently in my view.

Sanders 20.1
Yeah, sure. I don't think Sanders wins but I have to admit that there are several plausible scenarios where he wins.

O’Rourke 16.8
Too low. I have him second to Harris at the moment. Could bomb for sure, but his upside is massive. Probably the only candidate who could potentially just run away with the primary quickly.

I think this is a pretty good take- with the exception of Harris.  She certainty has a path, But I would put her in 3rd.

I would put the likelihood:
1. Beto
2. Bernie
3. Kamala
4. Booker
5. Biden
6. Pete

Bernie will likely get 20-25% of the vote, but I think 25% is his Max.  Definitely not over 30%.  So he probably stuck with 2nd, regardless of who wins.

I think the race will come down to Beto, Bernie, and 1 other (Kamala or maybe even Booker)

The Key for who is the 3rd candidate will be SC.  After a year of campaigning, I think Beto will end up winning Iowa.  Bernie will win NH. Then Beto wins NV with Bernie in 2nd.  

Then it comes to SC.
Biden is strong in SC, But the state will likely be won by Kamala or Booker (unless they end up completely splitting the AA vote, which is 60% of the Dem Primary vote in SC). Right now Booker and Kamala are pretty even in SC.  But I think Booker might end up connecting more with the AA community in SC (and some of the other southern states as well- where he has put in a lot of time the past couple of years).  If Biden ended up winning SC, then it would be a 4 person race between Beto, Bernie, Biden, whoever prevailed between Kamala/Booker.  If Kamala or Booker wins SC, then Biden is out, and its a 3 person race between Beto, Bernie & Kamala/Booker (whoever wins SC).

So I guess in a way, Booker is the only one I could consider a potential dark horse (since most people consider Biden, Bernie, Beto, Kamala to be the current front runners).  Pete is certainly picking up steam at the moment (and I think could make a very good president), but in a year when beating Trump is such a high priority, I wonder if Dem voters will be willing to take a chance on an under-40, gay, mayor (even though he's Military Vet & Rhodes Scholar).  I'm not saying its not possible, but highly unlikely at this point. (But I do think he will have a Cabinet high position & I also very easily see him being President in the future).

If Kamala wins SC- then the field would go down to Beto, Bernie, Kamala.  At this point I think Beto picks up a large part of Biden's support & Kamala solidifies much of the AA (But there is still part of the older AA community that thinks a black candidate will not win the general election in 2020).  At this point the winner would be Beto or Kamala, whichever can generate the most excitement & whichever (at that point in the race) Dems think is most electable.

Granted if Biden were to win Iowa, all of the above is thrown into the wind- but I do not see him winning Iowa.  He has been on the ground in several previous campaigns for the Dem nominee... and never had a bit of success connecting.

[Mr. Morden]

I feel like O’Rourke, Biden, and Buttigieg are all very slowly converging towards a 3-way tie for 3rd place:

Sanders 22.2
Harris 21.7
O’Rourke 14.5
Biden 13.1
Buttigieg 11.6
Yang 5.3
Warren 3.8
Gabbard 3.3
Booker 2.9
Klobuchar 2.9