Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bandit, you've made the point that you don't like Beshear because of his COVID policies.  You don't need to keep repeating it.  Further replies in that vein will be deleted as spam.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1658615846447763456

[GeorgiaModerate]

Craft really flopped, wow. Though Cameron being such a well known statewide figure should not have even made this into a question.

I couldn’t even imagine spending millions of my own money to not even make it out of the primary.

If I had millions of dollars of disposable money, there are many many things I would prefer to blow it on rather than running for office.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1678387799588761601

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1681020362069254144

[GeorgiaModerate]

That's interesting because reguardless of if Beshear wins or loses, I expect smtg simillar to KS-Gov where the Dem has a massive overperformance statewide but re-alignment catches up. In 2022, Kelly lost a significant chunk of her rural support, but made gains in Johnson allowing her to just eek out another win.

That's the perfect summation of the Democrats' problems these days. They pick up rich areas like Johnson County, Kansas, but lose people of normal means in rural areas.

Democrats in 2023 = Republicans in 1991

While I do agree your average resident in Johnson County is better off economically than your average rural Kansas resident, I would not call the voters Dems have been gaining in Johnson County wealthy, moreso professional or upper-middle-class.

The median income in Johnson County is roughly 92k/year. That's def enough to live a decent quality of life, but not enough to be removed from the economic concerns most Americans face and doesn't give you true financial freedom.

Also consider that generally the "educated elite" types Democrats have been gaining with tend to live in communities that are just more expensive to live in, have demanding jobs, and had to invest a lot of time and money into their education. Once you adjust for those factors, I think the economic delta between the rural KS and KY voters Dems have been losing and suburban voters Dems have been gaining is a lot smaller than topline income stats would suggest.

There is a lot of evidence to suggest the truly rich (like 500k/year+) still lean overwhelmingly R, and didn't swing much to the left in 2020.

Democrats may be becoming the party of the upper middle or professional class, but not the rich.

I understand the sentiment here (and your point about cost of living is valid) but this feels like a stretch. And that's coming from someone who has really only lived in affluent areas my whole life (western Union County, NJ and NOVA).

A Household income of $92,000 is in the 62nd percentile -- so a family making that much is basically in the most affluent third of the nation. That's not rich (at least not in America) but it's certainly affluent, especially compared to non-US parts of the West.

There's certainly a distinction between the richer vs the upper middle class, but this feels like splitting hairs a little bit.

Upper half, not third.  62% is less than 2/3.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DDHQ's preview of the race: https://decisiondeskhq.com/kentucky-gubernatorial-election-preview-and-a-warning-about-polling-in-the-bluegrass-state/.  Summary: they predict a close Beshear win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1719438063015711129

I'm sure some of Trump's MAGA fans will believe this.  But is there anyone who believes it that wasn't already voting for Cameron?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1720431537944993966

[GeorgiaModerate]

Its interesting how one Emerson poll has changed the vibes of this race, ar least on the forum.

Same thing happened to the forum after one tweet with a news clip of a woman in Mississippi saying she's flipping to Presley. This site is too reactionary.

Overreacting is one of our core competencies.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cameron might well win this, but some of you are indulging in the long-held Atlas tradition of placing way too much importance on a single poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cameron might well win this, but some of you are indulging in the long-held Atlas tradition of placing way too much importance on a single poll.

I don't know for sure if the poll is accurate, an outlier, or overly Bashear-friendly. That said, it is equally true that some folks here are engaging in another Atlas tradition of putting hopiem over the data. That poll, for better or worse, is the current data set.

No, it is one element of the current data set.  As it's the most recent poll, it's indeed fair to place more weight on it than older polls, but it does not invalidate them.  Put it this way: if another poll should come out with later survey dates that shows (for example) Beshear+5, would that then become the current data set and invalidate the Emerson poll?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cameron might well win this, but some of you are indulging in the long-held Atlas tradition of placing way too much importance on a single poll.

I don't know for sure if the poll is accurate, an outlier, or overly Bashear-friendly. That said, it is equally true that some folks here are engaging in another Atlas tradition of putting hopiem over the data. That poll, for better or worse, is the current data set.

No, it is one element of the current data set.  As it's the most recent poll, it's indeed fair to place more weight on it than older polls, but it does not invalidate them.  Put it this way: if another poll should come out with later survey dates that shows (for example) Beshear+5, would that then become the current data set and invalidate the Emerson poll?

Well, if a subsequent poll is evidence that this poll is an outlier, then, the outlier assumption would be buttressed. If a subsequent poll shows Cameron ahead five, the outlier assumption would tend to be disproven. What's your point?

My point is that it's not good to rely overly much on any single poll (which is not to deny that some pollsters, and therefore some polls, are better than others).  The hypothetical newer poll might or might not be itself an outlier.  It's also important to remember that (a) the margin of error is real, and it applies to each candidate's vote share (not the margin between them), and (b) even if a pollster does everything absolutely right, 5% of polls will be wrong outside the MoE.  This is why there are polling averages.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Even if Emerson is "right" and Beshear loses, it calls into question why they released a fake poll earlier saying that Beshear is 16 points ahead.

I think what is likely is that they're anticipating the race to be closer than their polls indicate and they fudged the numbers in order to look better or have plausible deniability.

Fudged the Beshear+16, the tied poll, or both?

The tied poll.

Even if they didn't, it's still a bad sign because it shows that they fail to get accurate samples of the electorate. I don't believe that the race shifted 16 points recently.

No, it's not.  The two polls aren't inconsistent!  The +16 poll had N=450, which is a MoE of about 4.5%.  This applies to each candidate's share, so even without being an actual outlier, it could represent a real margin of Beshear +7 to +25.  I don't think Beshear was ever ahead by 16, let alone 25, but I can believe he was up by about 7 or so at the time of that poll.  The tied poll had N=1000, a MoE of about 3%, so it could represent anything from Cameron +3 to Beshear +3.  Based on other reports, I don't have any trouble believing the race has closed from, say, Beshear +7 to Beshear +3.  It could be even closer than that, of course, but that's all it would take to make the polls consistent based on their margins of error.

I think many of you don't appreciate how inexact polling, even high-quality polling, actually is.  The two polls DO NOT say the race has closed by 16.  They say the race has closed by somewhere between 4 (B+7 to B+3) and 28 (B+25 to C+3).  Yes, one end of this range is a lot likelier than the other.  

And that's not even considering that either or both polls could be actual outliers (i.e. outside the 95% confidence interval), and more importantly: the earlier poll was registered voters, while the later one was likely voters.  So they're comparing apples vs oranges; they're not measuring the same population of potential voters!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Split Ticket's final rating: Lean D.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why is this race getting such little attention compared to VA 2021? In that one it was virtually the main story of the msm, and we had 1oo more pages on that thread than we do for this race a day before the election.

obviously there's more going on in the news, so that's likely it. but the cynic in me believes that the press ate VA up more bc it was "GOP winning in VA!! GOP winning in blue state!!" which entices them way more than a D winning in a GOP state.

Also, Youngkin winning was a flip, while Beshear is already the incumbent in Kentucky; he already won once, so it can't be that shocking if he wins again.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My final guess is Beshear +2, tossup that tilts D. The abortion amendment map will be the closest reference to how this race plays out, IMO. However, I wouldn’t be surprised by anything Cameron +2 to Beshear +2. I’d be surprised if it’s a fairly decisive win outside of this range—Beshear stomping by over 5 feels anomalous and would be a very interesting indicator. I look to the re-elects of JBE and Laura Kelly as the closest comps.

What would happen if Cameron wins by 5 or more?

Many of would be very surprised.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

It probably actually is in large part because a nontrivial number of rural Kentucky whites who otherwise would vote Republican can't bring themselves to turn out for a black man.

Still?!

Yeah, racism ain't over yet. Certainly not in Eastern Kentucky.

Or in North Georgia, either.  I think in some cases it's unconscious racism; while some people wouldn't intentionally discriminate, they may get an uncomfortable "vibe" about a black candidate when it comes time to choose.  (For others, of course, it's more conscious and deliberate.)