Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Tekken_Guy]

Its interesting how one Emerson poll has changed the vibes of this race, ar least on the forum.

Same thing happened to the forum after one tweet with a news clip of a woman in Mississippi saying she's flipping to Presley. This site is too reactionary.

I remember how around September or so the 2024 presidential race seemed to have strongly shifted in Trump’s direction according to the site.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Its interesting how one Emerson poll has changed the vibes of this race, ar least on the forum.

Same thing happened to the forum after one tweet with a news clip of a woman in Mississippi saying she's flipping to Presley. This site is too reactionary.

Overreacting is one of our core competencies.

[Xing]

Its interesting how one Emerson poll has changed the vibes of this race, ar least on the forum.

Same thing happened to the forum after one tweet with a news clip of a woman in Mississippi saying she's flipping to Presley. This site is too reactionary.

Overreacting is one of our core competencies.

Yep. I do think people were a bit too bullish on Beshear prior to the past couple of weeks, but some might be overcorrecting now, which is very common on here.

[BigSkyBob]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

[EastwoodS]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

Inb4 someone says "MUH WHITMER" "MUH GRISHAM"

It still, even years later, baffles me just how reckless and nonchalant republicans demanded the government be during covid.

What I was trying to say is people would use the argument that because Whitmer outran biden significantly and Grisham didn't fair much worse than Biden that people stopped caring about c0vid restrictions, which I don't think is a great argument considering Polis crafted his whole image out of being more leniant on c0vid restrictions and he won by more than Biden as well. Sisolak, the only democratic incumbent governor to lose, was also infamous for his strict c0vid restrictions compared to other states.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

[EastwoodS]

The early vote looks kinda rough for the Democrats I’m ngl. D+11 on day 1 and only D +2 on Friday. The weekend should show a revival for Dems.

[BigSkyBob]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

[Tekken_Guy]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

[BigSkyBob]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

[EastwoodS]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

The poll looks pretty decent and properly weighed

[jvmh2009]

Cameron may very well be the favorite but it has absolutely nothing to do with this poll..... a poll demoralizing or helping enthusiam is laughable. The amount of people that look at polls is small. The amount of people that analyze and critique and make wide wide ranging predictions from polls are much much smaller.

[BigSkyBob]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

The poll looks pretty decent and properly weighed

If the poll is accurate, the history of such momentum is that it builds rather than suddenly stalls and reverses. If so, Cameron is quite the favorite.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cameron might well win this, but some of you are indulging in the long-held Atlas tradition of placing way too much importance on a single poll.

[Tekken_Guy]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

The poll looks pretty decent and properly weighed

The polls is by a notoriously bad pollster whose final polls of 2022 overestimated Republicans across the board.

[EastwoodS]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

The poll looks pretty decent and properly weighed

The polls is by a notoriously bad pollster whose final polls of 2022 overestimated Republicans across the board.

Oh. Don’t care. I still believe what I believe.

[BigSkyBob]

Cameron might well win this, but some of you are indulging in the long-held Atlas tradition of placing way too much importance on a single poll.

I don't know for sure if the poll is accurate, an outlier, or overly Bashear-friendly. That said, it is equally true that some folks here are engaging in another Atlas tradition of putting hopiem over the data. That poll, for better or worse, is the current data set.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cameron might well win this, but some of you are indulging in the long-held Atlas tradition of placing way too much importance on a single poll.

I don't know for sure if the poll is accurate, an outlier, or overly Bashear-friendly. That said, it is equally true that some folks here are engaging in another Atlas tradition of putting hopiem over the data. That poll, for better or worse, is the current data set.

No, it is one element of the current data set.  As it's the most recent poll, it's indeed fair to place more weight on it than older polls, but it does not invalidate them.  Put it this way: if another poll should come out with later survey dates that shows (for example) Beshear+5, would that then become the current data set and invalidate the Emerson poll?

[BigSkyBob]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

The poll looks pretty decent and properly weighed

The polls is by a notoriously bad pollster whose final polls of 2022 overestimated Republicans across the board.

FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson A- with a slight Democratic bias.

[Tekken_Guy]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

The poll looks pretty decent and properly weighed

The polls is by a notoriously bad pollster whose final polls of 2022 overestimated Republicans across the board.

FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson A- with a slight Democratic bias.

Then why would they suddenly be more accurate in 2023 than in 2022?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

The poll looks pretty decent and properly weighed

The polls is by a notoriously bad pollster whose final polls of 2022 overestimated Republicans across the board.

FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson A- with a slight Democratic bias.

Then why would they suddenly be more accurate in 2023 than in 2022?

We don't know, Emerson could be more accurate this time or less. The answer will be out in a few more days.

[BigSkyBob]

The KY posters may be able to confirm this, but my impression is that this race is slipping away from Beshear at the last minute.

Cameron has been far more on message in recent days, relentlessly nationalizing the race and painting Beshear as a national Democrat on two of the most unpopular political stances in the state: his support for Joe Biden and his support for draconian COVID lockdowns.

Previously, Beshear had managed to put Cameron on the defensive on abortion, his ties to Bevin, etc. while Cameron's own attacks were comparatively weak (e.g. on trans rights), but that seems to have changed, and it’s not good for Beshear.

Might turn into another example of "incumbent wishing the election had been held one week earlier."

I doubt Cameron is able to turn the race around in one week though.

It is more accurate to state Cameron has turned the race around already. He was tracking for a blowout loss.  The only question is whether, or not, his momentum will carry him to victory, or not.

Something in me doubts that it was ever really gonna be anything but close.

This.  In a state that strongly favors one party, it's normal for there to be movement toward that party late in an election. 

Both of these things can be true: Beshear is still favored, but Cameron has closed the gap.

And, also, both of these things can be true; the poll showing Cameron ahead, including leaners, can be an accurate snapshot of the race as it stood when the poll was taken, as opposed to an outlier, and, Cameron has such momentum that he is the favorite.

Beshear is very much still the favorite.

This presumes the poll is an outlier. If it isn't, Cameron is the favorite. Furthermore, the poll has almost certainly changed the race. Demoralized Republicans aren't going to be demoralized anymore. This should help Cameron's turnout. This is especially true after Donald Trump's enthusiastic endorsement. I don't know if the poll is an outlier, or not. Do you?

The poll looks pretty decent and properly weighed

The polls is by a notoriously bad pollster whose final polls of 2022 overestimated Republicans across the board.

FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson A- with a slight Democratic bias.

Then why would they suddenly be more accurate in 2023 than in 2022?

Because the herd of pollsters all overrated Republicans in 2022.

[BigSkyBob]

Cameron might well win this, but some of you are indulging in the long-held Atlas tradition of placing way too much importance on a single poll.

I don't know for sure if the poll is accurate, an outlier, or overly Bashear-friendly. That said, it is equally true that some folks here are engaging in another Atlas tradition of putting hopiem over the data. That poll, for better or worse, is the current data set.

No, it is one element of the current data set.  As it's the most recent poll, it's indeed fair to place more weight on it than older polls, but it does not invalidate them.  Put it this way: if another poll should come out with later survey dates that shows (for example) Beshear+5, would that then become the current data set and invalidate the Emerson poll?

Well, if a subsequent poll is evidence that this poll is an outlier, then, the outlier assumption would be buttressed. If a subsequent poll shows Cameron ahead five, the outlier assumption would tend to be disproven. What's your point?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cameron might well win this, but some of you are indulging in the long-held Atlas tradition of placing way too much importance on a single poll.

I don't know for sure if the poll is accurate, an outlier, or overly Bashear-friendly. That said, it is equally true that some folks here are engaging in another Atlas tradition of putting hopiem over the data. That poll, for better or worse, is the current data set.

No, it is one element of the current data set.  As it's the most recent poll, it's indeed fair to place more weight on it than older polls, but it does not invalidate them.  Put it this way: if another poll should come out with later survey dates that shows (for example) Beshear+5, would that then become the current data set and invalidate the Emerson poll?

Well, if a subsequent poll is evidence that this poll is an outlier, then, the outlier assumption would be buttressed. If a subsequent poll shows Cameron ahead five, the outlier assumption would tend to be disproven. What's your point?

My point is that it's not good to rely overly much on any single poll (which is not to deny that some pollsters, and therefore some polls, are better than others).  The hypothetical newer poll might or might not be itself an outlier.  It's also important to remember that (a) the margin of error is real, and it applies to each candidate's vote share (not the margin between them), and (b) even if a pollster does everything absolutely right, 5% of polls will be wrong outside the MoE.  This is why there are polling averages.