Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The usual Russian response to military failure, targeting civilian infrastructure:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1569025874690994176?s=20&t=MBmMs11W...

Blackouts have been reported in large parts of eastern Ukraine as electricity and water infrastructure has been attacked. As your post acknowledges, individual sets of missile attacks like this are the norm, but not at this scale (at least since the first phase).

My guess is that this is the missile tantrum I predicted (meant to console the ultranationalists like Girkin), but it might disrupt logistics enough in the short term to allow the collapsing front line to stabilise. Attacks on this kind of infrastructure are not inherently war crimes and can have military value - the US used them in Iraq to cause confusion, but it was able to follow this up with a coordinated air campaign which Russia doesn't seem to be capable of.

Let's hope the damage can be repaired in good order and that aid is stepped up (including humanitarian to help with this).

Zelensky's response:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1569044030272454663?s=20&t=Nm0MV6Nu...

"Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as frightening and deadly for us as your friendship and brotherhood."

Holy s*** that is an all-time quote.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It seems Russia's retaliation has all of unoccupied Ukraine without power

That should just increase the Ukrainians’ resolve. If Russians are doing this to them now, imagine what they will be doing to them if they are able to overrun enough of their country. And if they are able to do that, imagine what they then will do.

I am 100% confident this is just a photoshop of the Earth at Night composite that NASA did like a decade ago.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_earth_at_night.jpg

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Wagner Brigade to Russia's rescue... let send out the convicts to do something the regular Russian military is incapable of doing!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570676754997727232?s=20&t=q74x4mIbTub8os...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirlewanger_Brigade

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Even mass conscription won't save the Russian war effort in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1572343200534171648

Mobilization could make military service compulsory for millions of Russians who, at present, easily can avoid the armed forces’ twice-a-year draft. In theory, mobilization could swell the Russian army’s ranks by millions.

In practice, those throngs of new troops would lack instructors to train them, units to absorb them, commanders to lead them, noncommissioned officers to mentor them and equipment to give them useful combat power.

The main effects of mobilization would be to clog up the army’s fragile home garrisons, undermine the legitimacy of Putin and his regime, deplete the federal treasury and—in the best case—feed into Ukraine a lot of untrained, under-equipped and poorly led men who, more likely that not, quickly would surrender, desert or die.

"We have reserves" has basically been the Russian military motto for as long as Russia has existed, and if we've reached the point where that is no longer viable, well, that definitely changes what kind of military power they can be.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Mobilisation without refresher training for <30s, in at least some oblasts. Worse than what the mobilised LDPR gangs get.

https://www.twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1572664720901152773

This is how you generate bodies.

Meat shields

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheNationalNews/status/1573371234687008768

Can we ...do that?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Another bad day for the Russian Air force courtesy of Rob:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573685526191902720?s=20&t=KXfw2dyoNk9Dmr...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573754691116318720?s=20&t=KXfw2dyoNk9Dmr...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573769893975031808?s=20&t=KXfw2dyoNk9Dmr...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1573762334702682112?s=20&t=KXfw2dyoNk9Dmr...

This is what we call "engine-rich exhaust"

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Edward Snowden has been granted Russian citizenship and can now be drafted.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

A protester read an anti-war poem in Moscow. In response, police kidnapped him and tortured him by shoving a dumb bell up his rectum. They then kidnapped his girlfriend and brought her to the next room over to hear the torture while they superglued her mouth shut and threatened her with gang rape.

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1574490380481052674

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574272320071426049?s=20&t=dVYAl_CQk...

Reminds me of the Belarussian Andrei Zeltser, who obliterated a KGB agent raiding his apartment with a shotgun. Yet another example of why an armed society is the last defense against totalitarianism.

https://twitter.com/MishaKononovich/status/1442919434050433024

Hopefully they said "no homo" before any of that. I mean, not to nitpick on this, but it sounds like there are some extreme deep-rooted psychological disturbances amongst the Russian Authorities. Not that, as an American, I will be throwing stones out of my glass house, however.

But about the armed thing. Yeah. That's what liberals don't usually get or at least what they are not ready to concede. That is, that there comes a time when armed resistance becomes necessary. Still, we still have elections here and there two important ones coming up but if worse came to worse, that's the next step. Will maybe there is a step where civil disobedience and jury nullification becomes the next line of defense, but after that, that's the next step.

So yeah. The levels of escalation against totalitarianism are - The Law, The Electoral Process, non-violent resistance, and then armed resistance.

In Eastern Europe, they made it all the way to the bottom of this list. In America, we have just exhausted #1 and now we are looking at #2.

I don't want to derail this thread with a discussion about America, but if armed resistance is going to happen here because a totalitarian regime takes over the federal government in the future, that resistance is going to be led by state governments rather than independent armed citizens. As much as I support better gun laws in America, I can assure you I want essentially zero restrictions on what arms state governments can acquire, precisely for this reason.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

USA - neutral to net positive impact of the war (EUR/GBP > USD transfer, EU industry moving to the US, American industry outcompeting EU etc.) 💸

And you truly believe that's something that is on Joe Biden's mind right now? You're really a piece of work, aren't you?

Every yellow avatar on here is either completely unhinged or else from Norway, it seems.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Yes, this is good.  Putin won't bat an eye at sending others to their deaths, but there's a better chance he was some sense of self-preservation.  A guarantee that he, personally, will die if he tries to order a nuclear strike might be more compelling for him than a promise of a declaration of war.  Laying out the consequences very clearly ahead of time is a good idea.  The goal, after all, is to deter Putin from using WMDs, not baiting him into it.

Cannot agree with this more. "Strategic ambiguity" is a terrible idea in these sorts of situations where things are no longer far-off hypotheticals but are instead near-term potentialities.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Unambiguous talk is essential when responding to belligerent nuclear powers. I would be concerned if the Biden Administration wasn't making it clear that Putin would be killed immediately if he uses any nuclear weapons.

One of the few good things Trump said in the White House was when he made clear that he would annihilate the Kim dynasty of North Korea if he started a nuclear war. Of course brain-rotted liberals were offended by that then and the hypocritical conservatives that supported Trump then will hate Biden for this now, but that's a reflection of American foolishness. In reality, both were correct to respond unambiguously.

Should Harry Truman have been killed? Let me guess, that was different.

Also, all Putin has to do to respond to this is to have a trigger that nukes will fire on the event of his assasination.

America was waging a defensive war in World War II so yes, that actually is very different.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Elon Musk is just another silver spoon pussy coward

he's afraid of Vlad the Demon's nukes lmao. why? bcuz if he dies in nuclear Armageddon he won't be around to ensure his Congolese child slaves don't stop working in his cobalt mines?

absolute moron that man is. snake oil salesman down to his core.

I don't think he's afraid of Putin's nukes. I think Elon Musk believes he's such a genius that everybody should simply accept his brilliant peace plan.

https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1577096256748670976?s=20&t=xVy84ue...

I have probably a better opinion of Elon than most of the online left, but my god does he need to stick to just building rockets and literally nothing else.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

What's worse than mobilisation? The Russian government offers some answers:

https://twitter.com/vidtranslator/status/1578108073306165261
America: a terrifying place where lesbians surround you, vegetarians regulate plane food, and black people jump toilet queues. Better to die in the Donbas than walk into hell itself.

Edit: I posted the auto-translated version instead.

The Russian target audience seems to be the average Tucker Carlson viewer.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

For the first time during the war, Russian Forces in Ukraine will be under the command of one man, now "Commander-in-chief" Surovikin. He is the one who is credited for saving Assad's regime during the Civil War. Previously he was only commanding the Southern Campaign. Hardliners like Prigozhin and Kadyrov are backing him

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1578767684556111873

It's completely reprehensible the way your tone clearly demonstrates you are typing this with one hand.

Days since this website gave me a mental image I wouldn't want in a million years: 0

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Yall don't have Woodbury on mute? Wildin

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Could Ukraine realistically take back Crimea

Realistic, as in militarily realistic?

Maybe, though fairly difficult.

Realistic, as in Putin won't use tactical nukes?

Very unlikely. Losing Crimea would guarantee the end of Putin's regime. Losing Kherson, Kharkov oblast etc. does not.

Coupled with the fact that most Crimean residents (even pre-2014) are ethnically Russian, and in favor of being part of the RF ever since Euromaidan, I don't see how it would be worth it.

Some Americans here mentioning they are just pro-RU Ukrainian separatists makes no sense if one is familiar with how ethnic identities work in some parts of the World. A Russian born in Ukraine is Russian. A Croat born in Bosnia is still Croat. Nationality and ethnicity are different in these parts compared to the US.

It pains me to say this, but conceding/recognizing Crimea as Russian territory in exchange for the return of all other Crimean land and all of their many thousands of kidnapped citizens might be a way to achieve peace once the Ukraine has beaten Russia out of the other occupied portions of the country. It's enough to save Putin enough face to declare the victory with their concession on Ukraine and not suffer a coup. Not that I don't wish to see him rotting in hell, I just wish to see Ukraine unconquered and at peace.

Btw my guess is Ukraine would accept this as well but it has to be a compromise Russia comes up with , not something Ukraine themselves would offer upfront as doing so would make the actual  deal worse.

I think a vaguely-realistic negotiated outcome would be Russia ceases its occupation of the lands they have occupied this year in exchange for a UN-monitored referendum on Crimea's status that the pro-Russian side would probably win.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

"Nazism is when you look at a map. The more you look at a map, the more nazi you are."

https://twitter.com/StopAntisemites/status/1580370426995216385

Given the extreme-right turn that the Libertarian Party has taken lately, are we absolutely certain this was not supposed to be a pro-Zelensky comparison? /s

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Keep the Q troll on ignore yall, it will improve your experience here so much.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Me seeing the new troll a few posts above

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Doubt this coup attempt works, and honestly probably for the best if it doesn't since a mercenary army running a nuclear power sounds extremely dangerous, but hopefully enough damage is done against Putin's regime and the Russian state army to further undermine their invasion of Ukraine.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This is one of those weeks where decades happen.

Yup. Whether Prigozhin wins or loses, there is going to be a very different constitutional order in Russia after this plays out.

I can kinda see this turning to a Warlord Era for Russia.

That could be nice…

Yeah I'm gonna go out on a limb and say a Warlord Era in a country with nuclear weapons is not a good idea.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Alright I'm muting PSOL until this current situation is over because yall don't know how to avoid getting baited into a pointless side-conversation.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This is the first time during this entire conflict that I have felt some real possibility that this ends with Putin actually losing power. Not to the mercenaries - I don't think they ultimately will have the numbers to pull off a successful coup - but to the army leadership, at least some of whom have to be getting tired of this disastrous enterprise by now.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1672621332998103043
No idea what they could possibly offer Wagner at this point (improbable as this seems, Carroll’s done some great journalism in Ukraine for the Economist, so I’m inclined to believe him).

Last ditch stalling tactic, maybe?

Well Putin has showed his hand at it's not a good one.

The military is not doing much to defend him and the people are indifferent to his fate.

Wagner has shown already that Putin is increadibly weak within Russia and can easily be toppled.

Idk about "easily" toppling Putin, I think that's yet to be determined, but it has become significantly more clear that the invasion of Ukraine has made Putin's domestic situation meaningfully more unstable than it was two years ago.