Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[LimoLiberal]

Rasoul is close to Ayala in Loudoun and Arlington. Washington Post endorsement can do a lot in NoVA.

[LimoLiberal]

Some random thoughts:

• Terry McAuliffe has not run a "bad" campaign thus far and the pieces lambasting his campaign and its tactics are really quite divorced from reality. The political environment is what's making Youngkin competitive here, not TMac's "gaffes" - if Biden's numbers are below water in Virginia, the race is going to be close.
• In 2017 the AG and LG Democratic candidates did 4-5 points worse than Northam. Justin Fairfax was a little left for the state but Herring, an incumbent, probably should have done better. If that sort of underperformance is repeated this year, Herring and Ayala could have trouble even if TMac is winning by a good margin.
• The HoD is unpredictable, and looking at presidential margins won't tell you the whole story, especially in NoVA. One example is HD-34, which runs along the Potomac from McLean to Trump's golf course (this is probably in the top ten wealthiest state legislative districts in the country). Biden won this district by 25+ points, but incumbent Kathleen Murphy won by just 16 in 2019. If there's going to be a rebound in the suburbs it will be here, and she's facing a well-funded opponent in Gary Pan. Although presidential margin wise this district is more Democratic than some of the other targets in NoVA, it might be likelier to flip. Just as you might see in Darien, CT; the massive swings to Clinton and then again to Biden may mask Republican strength down-ballot, and Youngkin is a pretty good candidate for that purpose.
• On the subject of the HoD, there are a number of seats that will make the difference. HD-12 in Blacksburg - Hurst (D) needs engagement from VTech voters to keep his seat. I'm not sure that this election has really galvanized young folks like the ones during the Trump era, but that's mostly anecdotal. HD-63 and HD-75 in Southside VA - these are majority Black seats where Clinton did better than Biden, similar to G.K. Butterfield's seat across the border in North Carolina. There are hints that Biden continues to slip with minority voters relative to his col-educated white base; if that's true, it might show up in losses here. Similarly, HD-31, HD-50 and HD-51 in Prince William County are districts that voted for Biden by double digtits but where Democrats rely partly on Hispanic turnout in suburban Manassas/Dale City/Woodbridge to outweight more Republican exurban areas in outer PWC and Fauquier. If there's Hispanic turnout or persuasion problems, it will show up here. HD-83, HD-85, HD-28 and HD-10 are obvious competitive races in VA Beach, Fredericksburg, and exurban Loudoun/Clarke. Some or even all of these can flip and Democrats can still retain control of the HoD, these are the closest districts by Biden/Clinton #s and thus top targets.

[LimoLiberal]

If anyone wants a good breakdown of the Loudoun County assault story, I recommend this from DC Urban Moms (a sneakily powerful message board):

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/1007838.page

[LimoLiberal]

We did a very preliminary dial test of the "he'll do all of the things we want a governor to do" audio and not only did it activate Democratic voters, but did genuinely astonishing damage to Youngkin's support among independents (possibly exacerbated by the state having a large population of government-adjacent voters).

Potentially a huge gift that Trump just handed to the VA Dems at the most opportune time for them, I'm fully expecting to hear it all over television in the next week.

I think it's useful to look at the recall in California here. No doubt a Biden +10 state has different circumstances than Biden+29, but look at how successful the Democrats were in activating college-educated suburban whites by tying Elder to Trump. If there are turnout problems in NoVA, this is the way to go for the McAuliffe campaign, however cringy it may appear to us to constantly frame the race around an ex-President.

This New York Times article says much of the same:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/15/us/politics/terry-mcauliffe-virginia-governor-race.html

In interviews outside Fairfax’s early-voting site, every McAuliffe voter cited Mr. Trump as a reason for supporting the Democrat. Transportation, education and taxes — longtime core issues of Virginia governor’s races — were scarcely mentioned.

Paul Erickson, an architect from Vienna, Va., summoned a reporter back after revealing his concerns about Mr. Trump and said in an urgent tone that he had more to share.

“What I didn’t say is, for the first time in my adult life I fear for our nation,” Mr. Erickson said. “We’re tearing ourselves apart from within.”

Others were less expansive but equally to the point.

“I don’t like Trump, and I believe Youngkin is equal to Trump,” said Carol Myers, a retiree who, with her husband, was voting before playing a round of golf at the Army Navy Country Club in Arlington.

[LimoLiberal]

I just drove through some heavily Korean neighborhoods in Annandale (Fairfax County) on the way to a restaurant.

I have never seen such a high concentration of political signs in one place - literally every house had Youngkin signs up. My anecdotal conclusion is that NoVA Asians are breaking hard for Youngkin. It also feels like the Youngkin campaign is very well organized in the community.

[LimoLiberal]

I just drove through some heavily Korean neighborhoods in Annandale (Fairfax County) on the way to a restaurant.

I have never seen such a high concentration of political signs in one place - literally every house had Youngkin signs up. My anecdotal conclusion is that NoVA Asians are breaking hard for Youngkin. It also feels like the Youngkin campaign is very well organized in the community.

I've noticed many Asians and Latinos at his rallies and events.  There are actually a few Korean videos that I saw expressing support for Youngkin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hPgq55iuLc

Asians in my community started to turning away from Democrats last summer, because they were pissed about all the BLM dudes committing vandalism against their businesses and violent hate crimes against across the nation.  They saw right through the blame Trump nonsense.  They also felt discriminated against by Democrat-controlled state and local governments that wouldn’t provide Covid-19 relief funds to their small businesses.  Lastly, they feel targeted by local enforcers of Covid-19 restrictions, particularly in Democrat areas.  When I looked up these issue in reference to Virginia, the first article I found was about a Democrat Councilman that said Asians shouldn’t receive Covid-19 relief cause they “don’t give anything back to the black community.”  https://nextshark.com/chinese-restaurants-virginia-councilman-no-aid/

It seems pretty evident that Youngkin’s movement supporting parent input in schools has successfully pulled Asians into the Republican camp.  It also didn’t help Democrats when some schools recently set quotas that discriminate against Asians who qualify for advanced programs, classes, and schools.  Asian parents have filed suit against Fairfax County.  
https://legalinsurrection.com/2021/06/asian-enrollment-slashed-at-top-virginia-high-school-after-admissions-changes-subject-of-lawsuit/

The video you linked is in Chinese, not Korean.

Also, you did not describe the TJ admissions changes accurately. There are no "quotas', although the Asian % did drop. The new system is a random lottery for those who meet a certain GPA threshold.

I would not consider myself "woke" or especially pro-affirmative action but I do think that there's something important to having public schools reflect the diversity of the communities they exist in. Having a 70% Asian school in an 18% Asian county is unsustainable. I also find the "meritocracy" argument for magnet high schools pretty ridiculous; the reality is that people from a variety of academic backgrounds can go into TJ (or Harvard or MIT) and succeed.

[LimoLiberal]

This is really desperate. It's hard to say McAuliffe is a favorite at this point.

[LimoLiberal]

Looks like Youngkin will be my new governor.

[LimoLiberal]

'Twas the night before the election, when all through Virginia
All the voters were voting, in the oldest dominion
The Youngkin campaign waited with baited breath
As the McAuliffe camp dreaded their soon-to-be death
The Democrats watched closely the stories in NoVA
Those suburban trends were soon to be over
In Arlington, Alexandria, and Prince William too
Those never Trump Rs were not coming through
In Loudoun, and Fairfax, the school boards made noise
And angry parents responded in droves
In the Tidewater region, black voters ran all
The TMac campaigners made nary one call
And Biden watched close from his West Wing window
As the over Potomac gave his people new info
The prices too high, the pandemic too strong
Had this great great great nation chosen so wrong?

[LimoLiberal]

Rain in the forecast for NoVA...

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455553552743604232?s=21

[LimoLiberal]

Sounds like a turnout surge in Republican areas.

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455557554856202245

[LimoLiberal]

Republican stronghold at 31% turnout at 10 AM.

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455564150365696003

They had ~48% turnout in 2017.

[LimoLiberal]

Falls Church is a pretty good sign for TMac. Well on track to reach and probably surpass 2017 #s in one of the most white lib places.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/wetzler_jessica/status/1455551950766886917

FYI Bergton is the 2nd reddest precinct in the county.

More red = less early vote = more (relative) election day vote.

[LimoLiberal]

For fun

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1455577405251334146?s=20

His previous 8 tweets are about PredictIt, lol.

[LimoLiberal]

Wow, great news for Youngkin in Stafford

https://twitter.com/DRexrode/status/1455572108432527362

[LimoLiberal]

Big, big NoVA turnout is surprising me a little bit.

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1455587757242396679

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455590841200881673

[LimoLiberal]

Arlington at 45% turnout at 1:30 PM!

https://twitter.com/ArlingtonVotes/status/1455593144914006028

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455601326142930948?s=20

That's pretty bad news for McAuliffe.

[LimoLiberal]

Things starting to look very positive for Youngkin:

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153

[LimoLiberal]

Worst news for Youngkin yet, I would say:

You could argue because there was such little early voting in these counties they should have the highest increase in turnout % over the day.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455611282158243841

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455613443957002244