Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Famous Mortimer]

Gabbay dumped Livni live and right in front of her, it was a very entertaining moment.

It was like watching David Levy reborn. And as he’s such a small man that would also be his downfall. Only plus side maybe Labour can finally die.

Explain to me this reference. I know who David Levy is. What did he do that was similar?

[Famous Mortimer]

It's not even a good take. Lots of white nationalists find common cause with anti-zionists. Ahed Tamimi's white-presenting features were a huge clarion call for David Duke in particular. Tying Zionism/anti-Zionism to other forms of racism doesn't quite work, because anti-semitism has always very much been its own thing and functioned differently from other bigotries.

I'm not talking about White Nationalists. White Nationalists are indeed hypocrites for supporting ethnic nationalism in their own countries and opposing it in Israel. They are clearly anti-Semites.

I'm talking about the left. The left is perfectly consistent. Every country must open its borders to poorer browner people. They are not anti-Semites. They are anti-white.

[Famous Mortimer]

From their membership roster, it looks like Gantz' party is just Likud minus Netanyahu. Albeit, while trying to remain intentionally vague about it.

[Famous Mortimer]

a lot of incumbents found themselves towards the end, but I will note number 34 on the list May Golan who might even get in. She was very active against the refugees in South Tel Aviv, has links to Khanist groups, and a foul mouth that even Regev might pale.

Interesting. She seems to have potential to be the next Hazan.

I don't think Hazan was unusually Right wing for Likud, he was just a generally horrible person outside of his opinions in the way he treated people. As far as I know May Golan isn't like that, she's a more normal person that is to the right of what you would expect in the Likud.

I've seen her interview, she has a foul mouth, maybe not as daft as Hazan but very much prone to outrageous statements

Number 27 is Shlomo Karai'i, who could basically  be in the National Union.
So we lost some mupptes like Hazan and Boker but the list did tilt to the right.

I am also happy to see the New Likudniks completely failed, I've been saying for years how pointless it all was.

What's the deal with the New Likudniks?

Are they really just trolling Meretz voters.

Or are they economically populist conservatives?

[Famous Mortimer]

What's the deal with the New Likudniks?

Or are they economically populist conservatives?

Closer to the opposite, economically liberal, more moderate or left regarding national issues and the judiciary.

So they're neo-liberals? I thought they came out of the housing protests?

[Famous Mortimer]

Why wouldn't National Union run with Otzma? Who is even in National Union anymore? It's just Moledet now, right? I thought Otzma left National Union because of National Unions merger into the Jewish Home. Now that they ain't in Jewish Home, what's separating them?

[Famous Mortimer]

This seems like a victory for Gabbay since Shmuli is the least ideologically left-wing.

[Famous Mortimer]

Good that Lapid and Gantz have united, makes the race more interesting. Since the election is mainly about bloc strength rather than about party strength, I'm personally not completely sure it was a smart move from Gantz to unite with Lapid: I am very skeptical they will attract the number of Likud voters necessary to get to 61. Even if Gantz/Lapid get to 36-37 seats and top the poll, where do they go from there? They presumably suck the life out of Labour, who would get to 5-7 seats, and Meretz wit 4-5 seats - so say you're at 47-48 then. They should hope Gesher and Kulanu will both get in and will both reject Bibi, who will possibly have been indicted by then. Still doesn't get you to 61 and this already requires quite a bit of luck. I don't think Balad and Ta'al will nominate Gantz after his populist campaign videos cheering on the death toll in Gaza. You'd have a coalition depending on an ideological range from Kulanu to Hadash and every single one of them would have to agree on it. Not impossible, but difficult as hell for sure.

Meanwhile the math remains much easier for Bibi. Even if he is like 5 seats behind and gets to 32 or so, he might only need the New Right, BY-NU/Otzma and the Haredim. He may either already be at 61 or be in the high 50s - if YB gets in, he's definitely there already. If not, it's trickier and Kulanu/Gesher would be kingmakers.

In essence all of this is about a) getting a sizeable enough number of right-wing voters to vote for Gantz/Lapid and b) having a convincing argument for Kulanu/Gesher to support Gantz over Bibi. I suppose they try to achieve a) by putting Ashkenazi on the slate and b) by uniting and becoming so much bigger than Likud that it will be illogical for Kulanu/Gesher to reject Gantz, especially after an indictment. It's the only shot Gantz has, so if I were him, I would be doing exactly the same even if doing b) by uniting with Lapid may jeopardize the prospects of a). But it would still take a ton of luck for it to work out.

Gantz/Yesh Atid is not trying to form a left-wing coalition. They are trying to get more seats than Likud and force them into a grand coalition.

[Famous Mortimer]

Gantz/Yesh Atid is not trying to form a left-wing coalition. They are trying to get more seats than Likud and force them into a grand coalition.

Can't exclude this possibility, it's true, but the party seems crammed with center-left people and in a grand coalition with Likud not much would change in terms of policy (unless Likud decide to set their relationship with the Haredim on fire). I see no reason why Likud would do this, even if they don't top the poll.

It would be a coalition of conservative and liberal Zionists that would push Labor and Meretz in the direction of the One State Solution they have always been headed.

[Famous Mortimer]

I notice a lot of the lists are rather small. What's the procedure if a party surges after the lists have been submitted and they have more MK's than seats?

Law might have changed but in the 80s, some dude ran as an independent and won enough for 2 seats but just had to forfeit that seat because he was the only one on his list. It's an incentive for everyone to submit lists with more people than they have a chance of winning.

[Famous Mortimer]

Gantz, Lapid aim at a grand coalition with Likud, not at a coalition with the left and the Arab parties. Sounds good to me.

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UTJ exclude the possibility of sitting with Gantz because of Lapid.

Since when is it such a sure thing that Kulanu would back Bibi ober Gantz?

It's not. But I think a small overperformance by Gantz could probably shift the analysis a bit for them, too. In any case they aren't going to back Arab parties in government, so unless Gantz really overperforms I don't see it happening.

It's not certain but Kulanu have explicitly stated that they will support Bibi.

Called national unity government before the Israelis on the board.

[Famous Mortimer]

Ashkenazi is probably left of Lapid since he was always floated as a Labor Party candidate. Actually, probably just better to say that Ashkenazi is thought to be center-left, and not compare him to Lapid, who has no real ideology.

[Famous Mortimer]

Wasn't the National Union in government when Ben-Ari was an MK before?

[Famous Mortimer]

Hadash-Ta'al has no Jews in realistic spots?

[Famous Mortimer]

Kahlons Positions seems to be in Conflict with what Kulanu Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton said in Beersheba today:
“We do not rule out any Zionist party, as long as it is not a situation of them forming a technical bloc alongside anti-Zionist parties who do not believe in Israel’s Zionist identity.
If Gantz manages to form a government with a true majority, without any anti-Zionist parties, then yes, we do not rule out that possibility,”

I suspect it is Kulanu´s Strategy to cloud their Position in Smoke in order to still appear in the Centre and be able to scoop up the Voters who are Jumping the Likud Ship because of the Corruption allegations, but who are not at all Comfortable with a Gantz Government backed by the Left.
Similar Strategy to what they ran on in 2015 to be honest, i still think that Kahlon will, like in 2015, not walk the talk and go with Netanyahu after the election.

One should not forget that Cultural-Voting Bloc Connections are Important in Israel and Kahlon has always been from the Mizrahim-Likud Part of Israeli Society and i suspect that will influence him strongly when playing Kingmaker.

Basically saying they will join a Blue and White gov if Blue and White, Labor, and Meretz win enough seats to govern on their own, which of course is impossible. Irrelevant statement.

[Famous Mortimer]

Who is the highest non-Jew on the Blue and White list?

Who is the highest non-Jew on the Labor list?

[Famous Mortimer]

It would be appreciated if this thread does not head off in a certain direction.

"Please don't discuss politics on this politics forum"

[Famous Mortimer]

Two elections ago, YB was running in an alliance with Likud and people were talking about the possibility of Lieberman becoming Likud leader/PM after Netanyahu. Now he's not even going to be re-elected. Israeli is fickle. On the other hand, Israeli politics is fickle. So he'll probably still end up being Prime Minister somehow in some ridiculous way no one ever expected.

[Famous Mortimer]

Looks like Zehut is past the threshold for a couple of polls now.  Assuming they make it in will they back a Right-Religious government  ?  I though the leader of Zehut is a rival of Netanyahu so will Zehut demand that Netanyahu goes as part of its condition to join up a Likud led Center-Religious government ?

Remember that Netanyahu and Barak were moral enemies, ran against each other in 1999, then Barak pushed Labor into a grand coalition with Likud.

Remember that Yacimovich was Peretz' protege and had all the same views as him, then they ran against each other Peretz started attacking her for continuing to espouse the same views he had previously.

Rivalries in Israeli politics have a way of disappearing when their disappearing gives both people power. 

[Famous Mortimer]

I see number 2 on the Zehut list is Haim Amsalem. I remember he was an MK for Shas who broke away and formed a punnily named party called Whole Nation that sometimes polled like it might win Knesset seats. I don't remember what the ideology of the party was though. What's his deal again?

[Famous Mortimer]

Policy-wise, Levy is closer to the left. Politically, she is closer to the right. The same can be said of her former party as well actually.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm 99% sure that barely any of the US Presidental candidates understand about a 2 state solution and how many people would be displaced.

Who are you talking about settlers or Palestinian refugees? No one is going to overly concerned about settlers and Palestinian refugees have already been displaced.

[Famous Mortimer]

BTW I'm just going to say that I am too invested in this election personally as a Jew to make an unbiased prediction.

Do you make American election predictions?

lol

[Famous Mortimer]

Prison votes are going to come in and put Balad over the threshold. This happened in every election prior to the formation of the Joint List.

[Famous Mortimer]

First election since 1996 where the two top parties by themselves won a majority of seats.