Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Walmart_shopper]

So last night Bibi surprised everyone and did something he almost never does, and went on Channel 12, which is the Israeli version of CNN, for a personal interview. He imploded. He refused to rule out support for a French style immunity law that would basically shield him from prosecution in the indictments that have been leveled against him. He looked absolutely lost in front 9f the camera.

The rumor is that the private polling is actually really bad for the Likud right now and that he is doing what he usually does when he's in trouble, which is panic. Obviously there's no way of knowing if that rumor is true.

from my experience, private polls are not better than public ones.

Correct. But private polls direct campaign behavior much more than public ones do. Private polls would compel Bibi to expose himself on TV last night, and public ones would not. I'm not saying the Likud is imploding, only that it's probably the case that some private polling is painting that picture.

It's also worth pointing out that in 2015 Likud's private polling showed that heading into Election Day the Zionist Union had recovered and was leading after Herzog and Livni canceled their rotation agreement. That's what prompted the totally scripted "Arabs are flocking to the polls" lie and Bibi's announcement of opposition to a Palestinian state. And then during the day it was Likud's private polling that showed the Likud skyrocketing ahead by several mandates. Those private polls caught what even the exit polls could not. In Israel public polls are usually very hit or miss, but private polling can be very good.


In any case, even public polling has Blue and White regaining after a brief slip. But the right bloc is still in obviously better shape. I think Bibi is much more concerned about the Likud than about the right wing, though.

[danny]

So last night Bibi surprised everyone and did something he almost never does, and went on Channel 12, which is the Israeli version of CNN, for a personal interview. He imploded. He refused to rule out support for a French style immunity law that would basically shield him from prosecution in the indictments that have been leveled against him. He looked absolutely lost in front 9f the camera.

The rumor is that the private polling is actually really bad for the Likud right now and that he is doing what he usually does when he's in trouble, which is panic. Obviously there's no way of knowing if that rumor is true.

Bibi doesn't do interviews in normal times, but he does do them before elections, so this isn't really unusual. As for "implosion", that's not what I thought. He seemed too whiny, but his actual answers seemed reasonable.

 I didn't like the interview, but that was because of the interviewers rather than Bibi. All the questions were about Submarines, Gantz's phone and why wasn't Miri Regev in a campaign photo, but nothing about actual policy. no questions about Gaza, nothing about the deficit, nothing about the situation in the hospitals or surrogacy pregnancy for gay people etc.

Bibi is a the prime minister but they interviewed him as if he's some contestant on reality show rather than someone who can affect how the country is run.

[Oryxslayer]

So last night Bibi surprised everyone and did something he almost never does, and went on Channel 12, which is the Israeli version of CNN, for a personal interview. He imploded. He refused to rule out support for a French style immunity law that would basically shield him from prosecution in the indictments that have been leveled against him. He looked absolutely lost in front 9f the camera.

The rumor is that the private polling is actually really bad for the Likud right now and that he is doing what he usually does when he's in trouble, which is panic. Obviously there's no way of knowing if that rumor is true.

from my experience, private polls are not better than public ones.

TBH, all polls in 2015 were off the final result by a country mile. So maybe there is something we are not seeing, and polls will once again be consistently off.  I'm wondering why the interview happened now, when Trump just gave Bibi a lifeline with the Golon statement. It changes the media's topic from one that benefits Bibi to an uncertain one.

Another possibility exists: Bibi doesn't want to form another all-right government. Polls are showing that he would have to add more parties, potentially zehut whose loyalty is uncertain. So it might be easier for B&W and Likud to just form a government, no matter who comes in first. The potential downside is that Bibi would certainly need to step back as part of B&W demands, but this might not be a downside if Bibi knows he is finished

[Walmart_shopper]

So last night Bibi surprised everyone and did something he almost never does, and went on Channel 12, which is the Israeli version of CNN, for a personal interview. He imploded. He refused to rule out support for a French style immunity law that would basically shield him from prosecution in the indictments that have been leveled against him. He looked absolutely lost in front 9f the camera.

The rumor is that the private polling is actually really bad for the Likud right now and that he is doing what he usually does when he's in trouble, which is panic. Obviously there's no way of knowing if that rumor is true.

from my experience, private polls are not better than public ones.

TBH, all polls in 2015 were off the final result by a country mile. So maybe there is something we are not seeing, and polls will once again be consistently off.  I'm wondering why the interview happened now, when Trump just gave Bibi a lifeline with the Golon statement. It changes the media's topic from one that benefits Bibi to an uncertain one.

Another possibility exists: Bibi doesn't want to form another all-right government. Polls are showing that he would have to add more parties, potentially zehut whose loyalty is uncertain. So it might be easier for B&W and Likud to just form a government, no matter who comes in first. The potential downside is that Bibi would certainly need to step back as part of B&W demands, but this might not be a downside if Bibi knows he is finished

People thought Mark Mellman was out of his mind in 2013 when he said that Yair Lapid, whose campaign he was working with, could pick up 22 mandates. He wound up with 19. There's often a current in Israeli politics that public polling just doesn't pick up, and it often runs on issues that aren't even being highlighted in the media (think Pensioner Party).  In 2015 it was Likud's consolidation of the right wing and Bayit Yehudi's flop. It's totally possible, even probable, that something is happening that we don't even see. Nobody knows what exactly that is but if I had to guess I would guess that it was Yesh Atid's secular middle class base coming home to take back government from the Haredim and picking up a fair amount of secular Likud voters tired of Bibi and leftist voters hoping to end right wing government. We're all talking about corruption and annexation of the West Bank and it could be that the electorate is fired up about a cadre of Haredi rabbis determining the country's future. Obviously, though, that's just a hunch. I also think that the Arabs will actually flock to the polls and significantly outperform their polling, which likely won't get them into government but will ensure the math isn't there for Netanyahu.

[Walmart_shopper]

As an illustration of my argument above, here's a new Hadashot poll:

Blue and White  32
Likud 28
Labor 10
UTJ and Hadash Taal 7
Shas 6
Bayit Yehudi and New Right 5
Meretz, Raam Balaad, Gesher, Zehut and Lieberman  4

Assuming Zehut backs a right wing coalition, that's 61-59 in favor of the center-left-Arab opposition. And that also assumes that the vast array of right wing parties (and Raam Balaad) actually cross the threshold. It's the second poll in a week showing Gesher over the threshold, by the way.
   .

[bigic]

And a grand coalition would need a smaller party to get over 61. But I think it's not that hard and that there are willing partners (in this case Gesher?)

[Walmart_shopper]

And a grand coalition would need a smaller party to get over 61. But I think it's not that hard and that there are willing partners (in this case Gesher?)

The problem with a grand coalition is figuring out who will lead it, not who will be a part of it. Gesher and Kulanu would push very hard to make that happen, and Labor and at least a couple right wing parties would probably be very easy to bring on board (although I think Labor would be very smart to lead the opposition rather than join a grand coalition led by Netanyahu).

[Kosmos]

So last night Bibi surprised everyone and did something he almost never does, and went on Channel 12, which is the Israeli version of CNN, for a personal interview. He imploded. He refused to rule out support for a French style immunity law that would basically shield him from prosecution in the indictments that have been leveled against him. He looked absolutely lost in front 9f the camera.

The rumor is that the private polling is actually really bad for the Likud right now and that he is doing what he usually does when he's in trouble, which is panic. Obviously there's no way of knowing if that rumor is true.

Bibi doesn't do interviews in normal times, but he does do them before elections, so this isn't really unusual. As for "implosion", that's not what I thought. He seemed too whiny, but his actual answers seemed reasonable.

 I didn't like the interview, but that was because of the interviewers rather than Bibi. All the questions were about Submarines, Gantz's phone and why wasn't Miri Regev in a campaign photo, but nothing about actual policy. no questions about Gaza, nothing about the deficit, nothing about the situation in the hospitals or surrogacy pregnancy for gay people etc.

Bibi is a the prime minister but they interviewed him as if he's some contestant on reality show rather than someone who can affect how the country is run.

I think it is logical that he would get those questions, given what he has hanging over his head. Truth be told, he shouldn't even be in the running. He should be taking a timeout, preparing for his court cases.

[America Needs R'hllor]

And a grand coalition would need a smaller party to get over 61. But I think it's not that hard and that there are willing partners (in this case Gesher?)

The problem with a grand coalition is figuring out who will lead it, not who will be a part of it. Gesher and Kulanu would push very hard to make that happen, and Labor and at least a couple right wing parties would probably be very easy to bring on board (although I think Labor would be very smart to lead the opposition rather than join a grand coalition led by Netanyahu).

Yeah, the Labour base would be angry if they joined a Netanyahu government. A Gantz-lead grand coalition they would join, though, because the baseis also hungry for influence.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Hebrew University's lawschool student council was hosting an election panel tonight, where, amongst others, URWP's Bezalel Smotrich, Labour's Revital Swid and Meretz's Michal Rozin were supposed to attend. The URWP switched their representative from Smotrich to Kahanist Itamar Ben Gvir in the last moments, prompting Labour, Meretz and the Arab parties to withdraw. There's going to be a demonstration to stop the outrage of bringing this murder-supporter here.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Hebrew University's lawschool student council was hosting an election panel tonight, where, amongst others, URWP's Bezalel Smotrich, Labour's Revital Swid and Meretz's Michal Rozin were supposed to attend. The URWP switched their representative from Smotrich to Kahanist Itamar Ben Gvir in the last moments, prompting Labour, Meretz and the Arab parties to withdraw. There's going to be a demonstration to stop the outrage of bringing this murder-supporter here.

The problem with this logic is that Smotrich isn't really much better. What time is the demonstration, by the way? We actually live fairly close to campus.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Hebrew University's lawschool student council was hosting an election panel tonight, where, amongst others, URWP's Bezalel Smotrich, Labour's Revital Swid and Meretz's Michal Rozin were supposed to attend. The URWP switched their representative from Smotrich to Kahanist Itamar Ben Gvir in the last moments, prompting Labour, Meretz and the Arab parties to withdraw. There's going to be a demonstration to stop the outrage of bringing this murder-supporter here.

The problem with this logic is that Smotrich isn't really much better.

I think the line needs to be drawn at Kahanism as a school of thought. Sure, Smotrich is a racist and a homophobe and personally might hold views not far from Ben Gvir, but he doesn't subscribe to the nazi-like views of Kahanism, doesn't glorify murderers etc.

[Hnv1]

The Hebrew University's lawschool student council was hosting an election panel tonight, where, amongst others, URWP's Bezalel Smotrich, Labour's Revital Swid and Meretz's Michal Rozin were supposed to attend. The URWP switched their representative from Smotrich to Kahanist Itamar Ben Gvir in the last moments, prompting Labour, Meretz and the Arab parties to withdraw. There's going to be a demonstration to stop the outrage of bringing this murder-supporter here.

Shocking, the approval of candidates by the SC gives them a moral approval in public eyes...it's like liberals didn't say that it will happen.

As I recall from my days the Law Faculty's student union were basically the mediocre students who looked for some lines in their CVs, I'm not surprised by any blunder they make.

[Oryxslayer]

The Hebrew University's lawschool student council was hosting an election panel tonight, where, amongst others, URWP's Bezalel Smotrich, Labour's Revital Swid and Meretz's Michal Rozin were supposed to attend. The URWP switched their representative from Smotrich to Kahanist Itamar Ben Gvir in the last moments, prompting Labour, Meretz and the Arab parties to withdraw. There's going to be a demonstration to stop the outrage of bringing this murder-supporter here.

Shocking, the approval of candidates by the SC gives them a moral approval in public eyes...it's like liberals didn't say that it will happen.

As I recall from my days the Law Faculty's student union were basically the mediocre students who looked for some lines in their CVs, I'm not surprised by any blunder they make.

I'm not sure what your trying to say here...that because the court only banned Ben Ari kahanism is okay? An analogy might be that because the Kahanists ended a fight with only several broken bones and a hospital trip rather than dead means that they won the publics approval? I don't get the logic.

[Hnv1]

The Hebrew University's lawschool student council was hosting an election panel tonight, where, amongst others, URWP's Bezalel Smotrich, Labour's Revital Swid and Meretz's Michal Rozin were supposed to attend. The URWP switched their representative from Smotrich to Kahanist Itamar Ben Gvir in the last moments, prompting Labour, Meretz and the Arab parties to withdraw. There's going to be a demonstration to stop the outrage of bringing this murder-supporter here.

Shocking, the approval of candidates by the SC gives them a moral approval in public eyes...it's like liberals didn't say that it will happen.

As I recall from my days the Law Faculty's student union were basically the mediocre students who looked for some lines in their CVs, I'm not surprised by any blunder they make.

I'm not sure what your trying to say here...that because the court only banned Ben Ari kahanism is okay? An analogy might be that because the Kahanists ended a fight with only several broken bones and a hospital trip rather than dead means that they won the publics approval? I don't get the logic.

No. I'm saying that the whole banning festival was ridiculous and it's results are terrible (especially for the left). Public condemnation of khanism takes a blow once you have to authorize the run of Khanist candidates (which you legally do), the legal go ahead falsely gives a moral clearance and is counterproductive to the effort of isolating racism. And that's what we saw in the students' union announcement.

It was internal criticism of Meretz stupid populist moves. 

[DC Al Fine]

I'm curious about the Jewish left. What are the major idelogical and demographic differences between Labour, Meretz and Hadash*?

*I know Hadash is more of an Arab party, but my understanding is that they do contain a small contingent of far left Jews. Is that correct?

[Hnv1]

I'm curious about the Jewish left. What are the major idelogical and demographic differences between Labour, Meretz and Hadash*?

*I know Hadash is more of an Arab party, but my understanding is that they do contain a small contingent of far left Jews. Is that correct?

Labour - used to be a broad tent. But basically upper middle class, Ashkenaz, educated, secularish. And remnants of the farmers vote in the Kibbutzim.
Meretz - same as Labour though they tend to be more Ashkenazi, more secular, and more educated on average, also more urban concentrated (Tel Aviv Metro while being less dominant in the suburbs). a research found Meretz were most popular with people with no children or 1 child, and also popular with the LGBTQ community. with even smaller remnants in the farmers section
adash- the Jewish voters of Hadash are almost universally from Haifa\Tel Aviv (and a small Jerusalem group). Highly educated, secular, Ashkenazi, a lot of radical LGBTQ, and some veteran commies.

[danny]

I think it is logical that he would get those questions, given what he has hanging over his head. Truth be told, he shouldn't even be in the running. He should be taking a timeout, preparing for his court cases.

I don't mind that he had some questions about corruption, but I still think that he should also get questions about policy. Also, not all questions were about corruption but other things about Gantz and some who was in some campaign picture (this one seemed the least important to me).

As for not running, We have had in the past cases of politicians being under investigation for years without it ever leading to anything, or even leading to an exoneration in trial. Turning any investigation into something that would force a politician to leave would make it far too easy to dispose of political opponents by using the justice system.

[America Needs R'hllor]

A successful demonstration. It was clear to everyone that attended that Ben Gvir is not normal, and that there will be a response to him. He was barely able to speak (mostly due to brave people who weren't part of the Labour Party cell- we acted lawfully) and no one could argue that the opposition to him wasn't strongly felt.

Kahanism is where we drew the line.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

New Migdam/Channel 12 poll:

B&W: 32
Likud: 28
Labor: 10
Hadash/Ta'al: 7
United Torah Judaism: 7
Shas: 6
New Right: 5
URWP: 5
Zehut: 4
Gesher: 4
Yisrael Beiteinu: 4
Ra'am/Balad: 4
Meretz: 4

--------------------------

Kulanu - 2.6%

[DL]

New Migdam/Channel 12 poll:

B&W: 32
Likud: 28
Labor: 10
Hadash/Ta'al: 7
United Torah Judaism: 7
Shas: 6
New Right: 5
URWP: 5
Zehut: 4
Gesher: 4
Yisrael Beiteinu: 4
Ra'am/Balad: 4
Meretz: 4

--------------------------

Kulanu - 2.6%

Am I correct that Gesher would be more in the centre left camp that in the Likud/hard right religious camp?

[Walmart_shopper]

New Migdam/Channel 12 poll:

B&W: 32
Likud: 28
Labor: 10
Hadash/Ta'al: 7
United Torah Judaism: 7
Shas: 6
New Right: 5
URWP: 5
Zehut: 4
Gesher: 4
Yisrael Beiteinu: 4
Ra'am/Balad: 4
Meretz: 4

--------------------------

Kulanu - 2.6%

Am I correct that Gesher would be more in the centre left camp that in the Likud/hard right religious camp?

This is correct.

Orly-Levy left Liberman's party because she felt that it had gotten away from its focus on social issues, especially aid to Russian migrants, secularism, and inclusivity. She's from the right, but her heart and political impulse is from the left.

[Hnv1]

New Migdam/Channel 12 poll:

B&W: 32
Likud: 28
Labor: 10
Hadash/Ta'al: 7
United Torah Judaism: 7
Shas: 6
New Right: 5
URWP: 5
Zehut: 4
Gesher: 4
Yisrael Beiteinu: 4
Ra'am/Balad: 4
Meretz: 4

--------------------------

Kulanu - 2.6%

Am I correct that Gesher would be more in the centre left camp that in the Likud/hard right religious camp?

ideologically closer to the left, but Levy is not a leftist by any means, and economically she's a catastrophe.

[Famous Mortimer]

Policy-wise, Levy is closer to the left. Politically, she is closer to the right. The same can be said of her former party as well actually.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Policy-wise, Levy is closer to the left. Politically, she is closer to the right. The same can be said of her former party as well actually.

Uhh you're talking about a party that makes a big deal out of supporting the death penalty for terrorist and ran on a "no citizenship without loyalty" slogan, right?