BC Election on October 24th

[Continential]

When does the polls close?
12 AM EDT
Where can I can watch the results?
CBC News
Global News
Results Page

[mileslunn]

Right now NDP has a big lead in polls and would easily get an majority, but calling an early opportunistic election during the middle of a pandemic with rising cases, could backfire.  The one thing NDP has going for them is the BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson is an incredibly weak leader so that might be their best saving grace.  If BC Liberals had a stronger leader, I somehow suspect they would have second thoughts about this.

Of early opportunistic ones in Canada, record is kind of mixed:

2000 Chretien calls and early one and pays off with stronger majority
2008 Harper calls an early one and gets a stronger minority
2020 Higgs in New Brunswick calls one and goes from minority to majority
2019 Pallister calls and early one and wins a decent size majority with only minor losses, but after record landslide in 2016, that was expected.

But some have not worked out so well

1990 David Peterson calls one with a 25 point lead and loses to Bob Rae
2015 Jim Prentice calls and early one and also results in NDP pulling off an upset

So its gamble.  Probably will work out, but I think Horgan's odds of a majority would have been even higher had he waited another year.

[Benjamin Frank]

Right now NDP has a big lead in polls and would easily get an majority, but calling an early opportunistic election during the middle of a pandemic with rising cases, could backfire.  The one thing NDP has going for them is the BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson is an incredibly weak leader so that might be their best saving grace.  If BC Liberals had a stronger leader, I somehow suspect they would have second thoughts about this.

Of early opportunistic ones in Canada, record is kind of mixed:

2000 Chretien calls and early one and pays off with stronger majority
2008 Harper calls an early one and gets a stronger minority
2020 Higgs in New Brunswick calls one and goes from minority to majority
2019 Pallister calls and early one and wins a decent size majority with only minor losses, but after record landslide in 2016, that was expected.

But some have not worked out so well

1990 David Peterson calls one with a 25 point lead and loses to Bob Rae
2015 Jim Prentice calls and early one and also results in NDP pulling off an upset

So its gamble.  Probably will work out, but I think Horgan's odds of a majority would have been even higher had he waited another year.

1997 Chretien nearly loses majority after being unable to explain the need for an early election call.

2011, Harper calls an early election and gains a majority.

[brucejoel99]

Calling an election right now is a bad look but I doubt it'll bite Horgan & the NDP in the ass too much. The BC Liberals have been ghosts for a while, Wilkinson is an awful & unlikeable leader, & the BC Greens don't seem to matter so much anymore now that Weaver is gone.

[brucejoel99]

Right now NDP has a big lead in polls and would easily get an majority, but calling an early opportunistic election during the middle of a pandemic with rising cases, could backfire.  The one thing NDP has going for them is the BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson is an incredibly weak leader so that might be their best saving grace.  If BC Liberals had a stronger leader, I somehow suspect they would have second thoughts about this.

Of early opportunistic ones in Canada, record is kind of mixed:

2000 Chretien calls and early one and pays off with stronger majority
2008 Harper calls an early one and gets a stronger minority
2020 Higgs in New Brunswick calls one and goes from minority to majority
2019 Pallister calls and early one and wins a decent size majority with only minor losses, but after record landslide in 2016, that was expected.

But some have not worked out so well

1990 David Peterson calls one with a 25 point lead and loses to Bob Rae
2015 Jim Prentice calls and early one and also results in NDP pulling off an upset

So its gamble.  Probably will work out, but I think Horgan's odds of a majority would have been even higher had he waited another year.

1997 Chretien nearly loses majority after being unable to explain the need for an early election call.

2011, Harper calls an early election and gains a majority.

2011 wasn't Harper calling an early election, his government had lost a confidence motion.

[Benjamin Frank]

Right now NDP has a big lead in polls and would easily get an majority, but calling an early opportunistic election during the middle of a pandemic with rising cases, could backfire.  The one thing NDP has going for them is the BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson is an incredibly weak leader so that might be their best saving grace.  If BC Liberals had a stronger leader, I somehow suspect they would have second thoughts about this.

Of early opportunistic ones in Canada, record is kind of mixed:

2000 Chretien calls and early one and pays off with stronger majority
2008 Harper calls an early one and gets a stronger minority
2020 Higgs in New Brunswick calls one and goes from minority to majority
2019 Pallister calls and early one and wins a decent size majority with only minor losses, but after record landslide in 2016, that was expected.

But some have not worked out so well

1990 David Peterson calls one with a 25 point lead and loses to Bob Rae
2015 Jim Prentice calls and early one and also results in NDP pulling off an upset

So its gamble.  Probably will work out, but I think Horgan's odds of a majority would have been even higher had he waited another year.

1997 Chretien nearly loses majority after being unable to explain the need for an early election call.

2011, Harper calls an early election and gains a majority.

2011 wasn't Harper calling an early election, his government had lost a confidence motion.

I had forgotten that, but Harper engineered the loss because he thought he could win a majority.

[RogueBeaver]

In Quebec: 1939, 1976, 2014 are wipeouts for incumbents. 1962, 1973 and 2008 are jackpots.

[adma]

And in Ontario, 1987 was a jackpot.

Somehow I can see the BC gap narrowing by proxy, simply because urban vs rural voting demos have "sorted" so much in recent times, no matter what the leadership...

[DC Al Fine]

I'll throw another one out there. In 2006 NS Tory leader Rodney MacDonald called a snap election in hopes of turning a minority into a majority. He increased his vote share from 36% to 40% but somehow managed to lose two seats. Not a wipeot, but a big oof nonetheless.

[jaichind]

I always thought that the 2008 Harper gambit was sort of a disappointment.  My impression was that he was certain of a CON majority when he called the election.

[Oryxslayer]

All this talk about the other Minority govts in Atlantic Canada following Higgs lead, when it was actually BC we should have been paying attention to. I have no doubts that if polling follows the trend seen in NB, Horgan will get his majority, even though BC has a polarized seat allocation similar to NB.

One thing to remember though is that about 2/3's of the NDP's current Polling lead can be attributed to the nonexistent BC Conservatives pulling about 10-12% out of the Libs column. Last time they ran ten candidates and got less than 1% despite enticing poll numbers before the election was called. They currently have no candidates listed. It will be interesting to see if these voters come home like they always have in the past when it is clearly a two-horse race (and deny the NDP a large majority), or whether they will find a home to cast protest votes against Wilkinson.

[Benjamin Frank]

All this talk about the other Minority govts in Atlantic Canada following Higgs lead, when it was actually BC we should have been paying attention to. I have no doubts that if polling follows the trend seen in NB, Horgan will get his majority, even though BC has a polarized seat allocation similar to NB.

One thing to remember though is that about 2/3's of the NDP's current Polling lead can be attributed to the nonexistent BC Conservatives who ran ten candidates last time, and currently have none listed. It will be interesting to see if these voters come home like they always have in the past when it becomes a two-horse race (and deny the NDP a large majority), or whether they will find a home to cast protest votes against Wilkinson.

While I don't doubt that the B.C Conservatives were caught off guard by this election call, they actually have a credible leader in Fort St John City Councilor Trevor Bolin, and those who divided the party on its provincial executive to the party's detriment in both 2013 and 2017 are all gone.

I would expect the B.C Conservatives to get a fair amount of support in some ridings. 

[Hatman 🍁]

I have a very bad feeling about this.

[DC Al Fine]

I have a very bad feeling about this.

I also have a bad feeling... for the right. We'll have to see who's right in a few weeks

[brucejoel99]

All this talk about the other Minority govts in Atlantic Canada following Higgs lead, when it was actually BC we should have been paying attention to. I have no doubts that if polling follows the trend seen in NB, Horgan will get his majority, even though BC has a polarized seat allocation similar to NB.

One thing to remember though is that about 2/3's of the NDP's current Polling lead can be attributed to the nonexistent BC Conservatives who ran ten candidates last time, and currently have none listed. It will be interesting to see if these voters come home like they always have in the past when it becomes a two-horse race (and deny the NDP a large majority), or whether they will find a home to cast protest votes against Wilkinson.

While I don't doubt that the B.C Conservatives were caught off guard by this election call, they actually have a credible leader in Fort St John City Councilor Trevor Bolin, and those who divided the party on its provincial executive to the party's detriment in both 2013 and 2017 are all gone.

I would expect the B.C Conservatives to get a fair amount of support in some ridings.  

Not to mention, even if the BC Conservatives do end up consolidating behind the BC Liberals (like they always do), it depends where those Conservative votes are. They're probably moreso in the Interior, where they don't really matter. What really matters is how many of them there are in those 5-7 suburban ridings that the NDP needs to win a majority.

Though none of this is to say that a low-turnout pandemic election still couldn't easily end up being a disaster for the NDP in a perfect-storm scenario against them.

[Benjamin Frank]

All this talk about the other Minority govts in Atlantic Canada following Higgs lead, when it was actually BC we should have been paying attention to. I have no doubts that if polling follows the trend seen in NB, Horgan will get his majority, even though BC has a polarized seat allocation similar to NB.

One thing to remember though is that about 2/3's of the NDP's current Polling lead can be attributed to the nonexistent BC Conservatives who ran ten candidates last time, and currently have none listed. It will be interesting to see if these voters come home like they always have in the past when it becomes a two-horse race (and deny the NDP a large majority), or whether they will find a home to cast protest votes against Wilkinson.

While I don't doubt that the B.C Conservatives were caught off guard by this election call, they actually have a credible leader in Fort St John City Councilor Trevor Bolin, and those who divided the party on its provincial executive to the party's detriment in both 2013 and 2017 are all gone.

I would expect the B.C Conservatives to get a fair amount of support in some ridings.  

Not to mention, even if the BC Conservatives do end up consolidating behind the BC Liberals (like they always do), it depends where those Conservative votes are. They're probably moreso in the Interior, where they don't really matter. What really matters is how many of them there are in those 5-7 suburban ridings that the NDP needs to win a majority.

Though none of this is to say that a low-turnout pandemic election still couldn't easily end up being a disaster for the NDP in a perfect-storm scenario against them.

Mostly in the Interior but the B.C Conservatives also have a fair amount of historical support (that continues) in Comox/Parksville-Qualicum on Vancouver Island and in parts of the Fraser Valley, essentially the exurban area of Metro Vancouver.

The Comox riding was the one that decided the last B.C election and the Langley City based riding (as opposed to the District of Langley) is trending NDP as it has become more of a suburb of Surrey than an Exurb of Vancouver.

Interestingly though, the B.C Conservatives historically have an identity and policies different from that of the Federal Conservatives.  The B.C Conservatives are more populist (but not necessarily right wing populist) than the Federal Conservatives, to whom they aren't connected with.)

In my city of Richmond, British Columbia, city councilor Carol Day ran for the B.C Conservatives in 2013.  She's also part of a non-coalition type thing on the city council with one Green and 2 New Democrats.

As a result of this, the vote results seem to show that the B.C Conservatives 'take' fairly evenly from the B.C Liberals and the NDP, though that differs by riding.

[Oryxslayer]

Maybe people are mistaking my post. The BC Con vote in the polls is unstable, and it may just end up returning to the Libs. Even if it does though, the NDP will/should still be leading, just they would be on track for a small majority similar to Higgs's last week rather than a demolishing victory. Only about 2/3s of the party gap is because of the Cons. Something else would need to happen to change the trajectory of the election for the Libs to pull even.

[Benjamin Frank]

Maybe people are mistaking my post. The BC Con vote in the polls is unstable, and it may just end up returning to the Libs. Even if it does though, the NDP will/should still be leading, just they would be on track for a small majority similar to Higgs's last week rather than a demolishing victory. Only about 2/3s of the party gap is because of the Cons. Something else would need to happen to change the trajectory of the election for the Libs to pull even.

I get that. I'm just pointing out that the B.C Conservatives seem to have historically 'taken' as many votes from the B.C Liberals as from the NDP.  Again, it's different in each riding where the Conservative Party has most of their historical support, but B.C Conservative voters historically haven't been a monolith where their second choice is the B.C Liberals.

[Continential]

If somehow, the BC Conservatives get around 15%, would they get a seat?

[mileslunn]

Maybe people are mistaking my post. The BC Con vote in the polls is unstable, and it may just end up returning to the Libs. Even if it does though, the NDP will/should still be leading, just they would be on track for a small majority similar to Higgs's last week rather than a demolishing victory. Only about 2/3s of the party gap is because of the Cons. Something else would need to happen to change the trajectory of the election for the Libs to pull even.

I get that. I'm just pointing out that the B.C Conservatives seem to have historically 'taken' as many votes from the B.C Liberals as from the NDP.  Again, it's different in each riding where the Conservative Party has most of their historical support, but B.C Conservative voters historically haven't been a monolith where their second choice is the B.C Liberals.

You cannot add two together agreed, but BC Conservatives take more from BC Liberals but not 100%.  Also some of their voters would just not vote at all if BC Conservatives not on ballot.  Its probably something like 60% from BC Liberals, 20%, NDP, 10% Green, and 10% would not vote.

[mileslunn]

If somehow, the BC Conservatives get around 15%, would they get a seat?

Depends on distribution.  If heavily concentrated yes, if spread out reasonably evenly no.

[Hatman 🍁]

If somehow, the BC Conservatives get around 15%, would they get a seat?

Depends on the quality of candidates. They could realistically only ever hope to win one of the Peace River ridings.

[DL]

Horgan is taking a gamble here but I disagree that he would have been better waiting a year. A year from now the “rally around the flag” sentiment will be gone, there will likely be a bad economy, a towering deficit and possibly more Indigenous blockade etc... I think the government could get very un popular over the coming year

[mileslunn]

Horgan is taking a gamble here but I disagree that he would have been better waiting a year. A year from now the “rally around the flag” sentiment will be gone, there will likely be a bad economy, a towering deficit and possibly more Indigenous blockade etc... I think the government could get very un popular over the coming year

Depends on when vaccine is developed.  I think for both BC NDP and federal Liberals, best time to go is immediately after vaccine developed so don't have to make any of the tough decisions, but also not the backlash of holding during pandemic.  Assuming a vaccine developed early next year, which is a big if, then I actually think spring would be best time.  More importantly if COVID-19 cases follow similar trajectory next year, you will see big drop off in May thus that or June being good months.  Off course who knows what trajectory they will follow, especially considering I suspect government will try to avoid another lockdown at all costs.

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder if Horgan (and possibly Trudeau?) learned the wrong lesson from Higgs' victory. That is, Higgs called a snap election in largely COVID-free New Brunswick and was rewarded. Horgan seems to have taken the lesson that the pandemic has given him a bump in the polls assuring him victory, but I wonder if what really sealed the deal for Higgs was being free of COVID...