2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[pppolitics]

NYT isn't free this year?!?! Why Needle Why!?

What's the best alternative?

incognito mode.

NYT has incognito detection.

Just delete your cookies.

[pppolitics]

It's time for GA!

[pppolitics]

What's going on with GA?

I see nothing.

[pppolitics]

The needle is now running!

[pppolitics]

What is going on with NC?

No vote yet.

[pppolitics]

Time for the Florida Democratic Party to disband.

[pppolitics]

Biden will lose AZ, TX, and GA because he can't keep up with minorities.

Definitely, because Mexican Americans vote like Cuban Americans /s

[pppolitics]

What's going on in NC?

Why are the votes so slow?

[pppolitics]

Biden way up in NC with over half reporting.... Come on, that would be huge.

I just saw NC went from <1% in to suddenly 55% in

[pppolitics]

Ultimately, Biden's job is to hold Clinton's states and win back MI/WI/PA.

That would be a very disappointing result, but Biden would have done the job that Democrats needed him to do.

[pppolitics]

If Trump has improved by 15% with hispanics like the exit polls and results show, Biden is not winning Arizona.

This will come down to PA, and I still think Joe has the edge there.

As said many times already, Hispanics are not monolithic.

[pppolitics]

Does anyone know what's going on with NV?

No data is coming in.

[pppolitics]

I've got to say, 2020 may be the very last time the Democrats run on a "Midwest strategy".

A "sunbelt strategy" might be the way to go from now on.

[pppolitics]

I've got to say, 2020 may be the very last time the Democrats run on a "Midwest strategy".

A "sunbelt strategy" might be the way to go from now on.

How did Biden not run on a sunbelt strategy?

No. His entire campaign revolves around trying to win back MI/WI/PA.

[pppolitics]

I think it's pretty clear now that, no matter who wins, the 2024 Democratic strategy is going to revolve around winning GA + NC.

[pppolitics]

Noticeable Biden improvement in Wisconsin just now.

I am not seeing anything

[pppolitics]

I know no one is gonna read this but, supposedly the city of Milwaukee has 169,000 outstanding votes. Milwaukee county has about 40,000 outstanding votes.

So the city of Milwaukee has more outstanding votes than Milwaukee county?

[pppolitics]

Just a very weird and disappointing election overall. Biden seemingly doing worse than Clinton in many working-class areas ranging from Youngstown to the Rio Grande Valley despite an admirable recovery in the Iron Range and New England. Even the denser white working class suburbs which I had thought were more winnable (Macomb, Long Island, Staten Island) have swung massively towards Trump with him currently leading in Nassau. Blue Dog Democrats like Bullock, Peterson, Torres-Small lost their races. A Democratic Senate looks increasingly unlikely and its clear that the dominant narrative will be that Trump defied the polls yet again even if Biden pulls through on the outstanding absentee ballots in the Rust Belt trio. Any semblance of moral victory against Trumpism or of a decisive electoral defeat for the GOP has been lost. At best, Biden will preside over a replay of Obama's second term with all the potential for midterm disaster and a rerun of Trumpism in 2024 that it entails.

I hate saying this, but I actually want Trump to win at this point. A Biden Presidency with a Republican Senate and an underwhelming electoral mandate would usher in a revival of Trumpism in 2024-with a banner carried by a more electorally formidable and "relatable" Republican candidate such as Hawley or DeSantis. Trump winning this year would give Democrats a fighting chance at a decent midterm in 2022 and the White House in 2024.

Just no. Another four years of Trump will be absolutely horrible, give us a 7-2 supreme court, more relentless attacks on democratic institutions and lead to absolute apathy amongst democratic voters, especially after this election result.

It's a choice between two evils for many. Biden's agenda will be blocked by McConnell, and Republicans would be poised to regain control of the House in 2022, ridding off anti-Biden backlash. Recent political history shows us that such an outcome is very possible.

I don't think there will be an anti-Biden backlash, with Biden not being able to pass anything in the first place.

[pppolitics]

Morning, all.  

Fell asleep on the couch and was just woken up by my roommate -- up early to study for a clinical -- thinking aloud that Arizona better not "(expletive) us in the (expletive)".

I...guess it's nice she's paying attention?

PQG, there is a chance you could get what you wanted: Biden with a Republican senate.

Is PR statehood out of the question?

I wonder what excuse McConnell could come up with.

"Brown people speaking Spanish doesn't deserve representation".

[pppolitics]

What's the chance that PA fails to flip and the country's newest battleground state, AZ, comes to save the day?

[pppolitics]

Arizona just got a big dump

[pppolitics]

GA has about 400K ballots oustanding, majoirty of which are Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, with some in Cobb and Gwinnett and the mid-sized cities (Dougherty, Chatham, Bibb, Muscogee). There are virtually no votes left in R counties.  

Just out of curiosity...why are Dems still high on Georgia?  Trump has a 100k lead with >90% of the vote reporting, and NYT has Fulton and Gwinnett as nearly fully-in.  The only outstanding vote for Dems seem to spread out between DeKalb, Muscogee, Chatham, Richmond and Bibb, but these are all north of 80% reported already.

Biden probably closes the margin some, but him flipping it this late in the count seems very unlikely to me.   

There is like ~127K out just from Fulton and DeKalb. I don't think the % are taking into account that its all VBM.

Given Biden is currently down about 100k statewide, that should be doable, right?

Yes, if current trends hold in the remaining vote, Biden would be on track for a narrow win.  But there's still a lot left to count.

I'll take it.

...anything to take the orange con man out of the white house.

[pppolitics]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

[pppolitics]

What's the chance that the closeness of the race reflects the failure to deliver the absentee ballots on time and the high rate of rejection of absentee ballots?

[pppolitics]

Officials in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, have said they will update results around 9 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. local time) on Wednesday.