2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Crumpets]

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324007806694023169
Lol this is awesome

I now have an image in my head of some anime daikaiju firing hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots at Tokyo and destroying the city.

[wbrocks67]

Philadelphia new mail-in batch

Biden 40984
Trump 3329

Biden wins these by 85%, approximately 160k uncounted mail in the county.

First batch this morning was 94-6, these are 93-7. Very good still.

[Hope For A New Era]

I feel like I've aged ten years in one night.

[Intell]

Trump seems to have done better with rural black voters from results in the Alabama blackbelt, Missippi delta as well as in AR, SC and NC. This seems to be the case anyway.

[forsythvoter]

GA has about 400K ballots oustanding, majoirty of which are Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, with some in Cobb and Gwinnett and the mid-sized cities (Dougherty, Chatham, Bibb, Muscogee). There are virtually no votes left in R counties.  

Just out of curiosity...why are Dems still high on Georgia?  Trump has a 100k lead with >90% of the vote reporting, and NYT has Fulton and Gwinnett as nearly fully-in.  The only outstanding vote for Dems seem to spread out between DeKalb, Muscogee, Chatham, Richmond and Bibb, but these are all north of 80% reported already.

Biden probably closes the margin some, but him flipping it this late in the count seems very unlikely to me.   

There is like ~127K out just from Fulton and DeKalb. I don't think the % are taking into account that its all VBM.

[Sir Mohamed]

Philadelphia new mail-in batch

Biden 40984
Trump 3329

Biden wins these by 85%, approximately 160k uncounted mail in the county.

Ugh, wut? Biden is still trialing by half a million in PA. He's gotta find them somewhere. Otherwise, we may actually end up with the HORRIBLE 270 map if GA doesn't flip. That's giving me a lot of anxiety. I mean, it would be a great Hollywood blockbuster, but we have a literal fascist in the WH who must go.

[emailking]

What is up in the Senate race in MI?

Not worried about Peters.  Running somewhat behind Biden, but he will make it.

Regarding ME, major ticket splitting appears to be in play in favor of Collins.  But she is running below 50 right now.

What would the next step be if Collins ends up with say 49%?

She's probably won then, but we'd have to wait a few weeks for the SOS to announce the results after the voters for the minor candidates have had their choices reallocated.

[n1240]

Just out of curiosity...why are Dems still high on Georgia?  Trump has a 100k lead with >90% of the vote reporting, and NYT has Fulton and Gwinnett as nearly fully-in.  The only outstanding vote for Dems seem to spread out between DeKalb, Muscogee, Chatham, Richmond and Bibb, but these are all north of 80% reported already.

Biden probably closes the margin some, but him flipping it this late in the count seems very unlikely to me.   

There is like ~127K out just from Fulton and DeKalb. I don't think the % are taking into account that its all VBM.

Where are you seeing the 127k number, though?  Biden is already ahead of Clinton's  2016 totals in Fulton by ~10k votes

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/Fulton/105430/web.264614/#/detail/1?v=268871%2F

Only 380k early vote tallied so far in Fulton, but they had 450k reported early votes cast, similar trend for DeKalb.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Any idea how the Senate will shake out? I see PredictIt seems to feel pretty good about Republicans holding it and Susan Collins looks like she’s in good shape, but I can’t figure out the overall picture one way or the other.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1324010277793370113?s=19

[Rand]

I feel like I've aged ten years in one night.

I feel young again as my first election night was 2000. Ah, nostalgia.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Has ME-02 been called yet?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I really hope Gary Peters pulls through also.

It's astonishing that Democrats must now be concerned about Peters. I'm also still shocked by how every competitive Senate race-aside from Arizona and Colorado, where Republicans were DOA-broke in favor of the Republicans. This very much resembles what happened in 2018, when Arizona and Nevada broke for the Democrats but they lost Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota.

Ticket splitters as effect of "we are gonna pack the court etc", perhaps?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any idea how the Senate will shake out? I see PredictIt seems to feel pretty good about Republicans holding it and Susan Collins looks like she’s in good shape, but I can’t figure out the overall picture one way or the other.

Assuming Gary Peters holds on in Michigan, Democrats need two of Maine and the two Georgia races to get to 50-50, with Harris breaking ties.  This looks like a very uphill climb.

[kwabbit]

Any idea how the Senate will shake out? I see PredictIt seems to feel pretty good about Republicans holding it and Susan Collins looks like she’s in good shape, but I can’t figure out the overall picture one way or the other.

Tillis almost certain to win, Peters likely to beat James but some uncertainty there, Collins very likely to win, the GA races going to runoff. Probably 50R-48D with the two GA races being decided in January.

[dunceDude]

https://twitter.com/MollyNagle3/status/1323990864327286784

Calling WI + MI for him today would be such, such sweet relief.

[Astatine]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-rhode-island-question-1-change-the-state-name.html

Even more of a nailbiter than the presidential race: The tough question whether the state of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations will change its official name.

[Sir Mohamed]

GA has about 400K ballots oustanding, majoirty of which are Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, with some in Cobb and Gwinnett and the mid-sized cities (Dougherty, Chatham, Bibb, Muscogee). There are virtually no votes left in R counties.  

Just out of curiosity...why are Dems still high on Georgia?  Trump has a 100k lead with >90% of the vote reporting, and NYT has Fulton and Gwinnett as nearly fully-in.  The only outstanding vote for Dems seem to spread out between DeKalb, Muscogee, Chatham, Richmond and Bibb, but these are all north of 80% reported already.

Biden probably closes the margin some, but him flipping it this late in the count seems very unlikely to me.   

There is like ~127K out just from Fulton and DeKalb. I don't think the % are taking into account that its all VBM.

Given Biden is currently down about 100k statewide, that should be doable, right?

[BlueSwan]

Any idea how the Senate will shake out? I see PredictIt seems to feel pretty good about Republicans holding it and Susan Collins looks like she’s in good shape, but I can’t figure out the overall picture one way or the other.

I have it at 50-48 for republicans with the Georgia races going to runoffs.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Philadelphia new mail-in batch

Biden 40984
Trump 3329

Biden wins these by 85%, approximately 160k uncounted mail in the county.

Ugh, wut? Biden is still trialing by half a million in PA. He's gotta find them somewhere. Otherwise, we may actually end up with the HORRIBLE 270 map if GA doesn't flip. That's giving me a lot of anxiety. I mean, it would be a great Hollywood blockbuster, but we have a literal fascist in the WH who must go.

I’m sorry, what? This is the benchmark he needs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

GA has about 400K ballots oustanding, majoirty of which are Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, with some in Cobb and Gwinnett and the mid-sized cities (Dougherty, Chatham, Bibb, Muscogee). There are virtually no votes left in R counties.  

Just out of curiosity...why are Dems still high on Georgia?  Trump has a 100k lead with >90% of the vote reporting, and NYT has Fulton and Gwinnett as nearly fully-in.  The only outstanding vote for Dems seem to spread out between DeKalb, Muscogee, Chatham, Richmond and Bibb, but these are all north of 80% reported already.

Biden probably closes the margin some, but him flipping it this late in the count seems very unlikely to me.   

There is like ~127K out just from Fulton and DeKalb. I don't think the % are taking into account that its all VBM.

Given Biden is currently down about 100k statewide, that should be doable, right?

Yes, if current trends hold in the remaining vote, Biden would be on track for a narrow win.  But there's still a lot left to count.

[DrScholl]

One thing is evident and it's that had there been faster vote counting of mail ballots this race probably would have been called already.

[CookieDamage]

Plsss Georgia

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Hoo boy...

(NYT)

Because of an error in an Edison Research data feed of results, the estimate of the counted vote in Arizona displaying on maps and tables is too high. The actual estimate is that 86% of the vote has been counted.

[MasterJedi]

One thing is evident and it's that had there been faster vote counting of mail ballots this race probably would have been called already.

State laws and Republicans not wanting it and wanting to contest the results in court.