Canadian Election 2019

[DC Al Fine]

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.

I think it was fair to say that Truro-Bible Hill wasn't an NDP seat, but a Zann-Seat. I feel her personal popularity/notoriety helped her hold the seat in 2013 and then increase her vote in 2017. I don't see this seat really staying NDP though... unless an equally high profile-well known NDP candidate is in place.

I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing

This. Rural Maritime politics are still very candidate based.

[DC Al Fine]

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.

I think it was fair to say that Truro-Bible Hill wasn't an NDP seat, but a Zann-Seat. I feel her personal popularity/notoriety helped her hold the seat in 2013 and then increase her vote in 2017. I don't see this seat really staying NDP though... unless an equally high profile-well known NDP candidate is in place.

I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing

This. Rural Maritime politics are still very candidate based.

Andrew Younger (although he was Dartmouth rather than a rural seat) seems to be the most striking example from NS, gaining a seat from the NDP in 2009, other than Bill Casey of course.

Yeah exactly.

I find when predicting Atlantic elections, it's far better to make picks based on the candidates amd then adjust for the polls, rather than the other way around.

[DC Al Fine]

Over the weekend, at the Ontario NDP convention, Jagmeet Singh released, basically, the platform for 2019 election:
https://www.ndp.ca/courage?fbclid=IwAR2owrUOeBCxRh1E5e3E5WmzEMmfinmrLPjOsD2a14rNVpkU_P0lJ8lKC50

The Star did a pretty decent summary:
https://www.thestar.com/amp/politics/federal/2019/06/16/ndp-election-platform-promises-head-to-toe-health-care.html?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR3xRcFLl-YKu7CWMu7wWLOheYOrZU3mbeB3Vv7FvvOB33GkesV1yFmsg-Y

Summary:
- "goal of making post-secondary education tuition-free" remove the interest from student loans and shift to non-repayable grants.
- cap cellphone bills, Telecom Consumers’ Bill of Rights
- $1 billion per year to support provincial child care programs.
- basic income pilot project,
- drug decriminalization
- change employment insurance so people can qualify after working fewer hours; introduce new payouts so no recipients have to live on less than $1,200 per month.
- Postal Banking, restore door-to-door service
- $5 billion into the federal government’s national housing programs within two years, to build 500,000 new affordable units within a decade.
- In its first four years in power, spend $15 billion to fight climate change by building more public transit, subsidizing zero-emission vehicles that are built in Canada, and funding green programs and infrastructure through a new $3-billion “climate bank.
- a push to retrofit all buildings so they are energy-efficient by 2050 — would create at least 300,00 new jobs.
- Universal pharmacare by the end of 2020, with an initial federal price tag of $10 billion per year.
- will work over the next decade to extend Canada’s health care system into dental, vision and hearing care, mental health services, long term home care and addictions treatment.
- create a new, 1-per-cent tax on people whose net worth is more than $20 million — a 1 per cent tax on the 1 per cent. This would apply to net worth over that amount, so someone worth $25 million would get a 1 per cent tax on their excess $5 million.
- hike the federal corporate income tax from 15 per cent to 18 per cent, increase the top federal income tax bracket, for people earning more than $210,000 per year, from 33 to 35 per cent.
- increasing how much capital gains income is subject to tax ($3Bin revenues), and another $1 billion annually by closing tax loopholes like stock option compensation for corporate executives.
- cancelling tax breaks for the oil and gas industry that are estimated to be worth more than $3 billion per year, redirect into programs listed here
- Introducing a form of Mixed Member Proportional

There's more but I haven't read the whole thing yet! it's like 100 pages!

Probably a smart move for the NDP. They desperately need to make some noise and stand out from the progressive crowd. I wonder how this will affect the Liberal platform.

[DC Al Fine]

The NDP have dropped their candidate in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour over anti-Semitic comments.

[DC Al Fine]

Rob Ford's widow is running for the People's Party in Etobicoke North

[DC Al Fine]

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.

Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

[DC Al Fine]

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.

Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.

Rural NS 's politics are highly candidate based, so while I wouldn't bet on Orrell or MacLeod winning their seats, but at the same time it wouldn't be that surprising if either of them pulled off an upset.

Sackville and Kings-Hants are trickier. Both were more considered safe by virtue of their incumbent until Stoffer's surprise loss and Brison's retirement. I would guess they're both Liberal holds but I really don't know what's going on. Kings-Hants might be a dark horse candidate for a Tory pickup though.

One other thing to note: Stephen McNeil's popularity has taken a turn for the worse over the past year, and there hasn't been a chance for the elctorate to replace him with a Tory like other provinces. Trudeau won't have the advantage of a Doug Ford blunting his losses here.

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

[DC Al Fine]

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.

Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.

Rural NS 's politics are highly candidate based, so while I wouldn't bet on Orrell or MacLeod winning their seats, but at the same time it wouldn't be that surprising if either of them pulled off an upset.

Sackville and Kings-Hants are trickier. Both were more considered safe by virtue of their incumbent until Stoffer's surprise loss and Brison's retirement. I would guess they're both Liberal holds but I really don't know what's going on. Kings-Hants might be a dark horse candidate for a Tory pickup though.

One other thing to note: Stephen McNeil's popularity has taken a turn for the worse over the past year, and there hasn't been a chance for the elctorate to replace him with a Tory like other provinces. Trudeau won't have the advantage of a Doug Ford blunting his losses here.

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Any chance for the Green Party in either the Halifax Metro area or on Cape Breton (I wouldn't expect 'Mainland' Nova Scotia - which includes the coasts!)

If the Greens surge they might have a chance in Halifax or Halifax West. Halifax is a very good fit demographically for the Greens. If they surged to 10-20 seats it would definitely be on my list of pickups. Halifax West isn't a great fit, but the Greens are running a city councilor there. Cape Breton is one of the last places I'd expect a Green to win.

[DC Al Fine]

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Why not South Shore-St Margarets?  I might even put that and Sackville ahead of the Cape Breton seats or at least Sydney-Victoria--unless they're both overly touched by Greater Halifax-ism at this point..

If it were a generic election with generic candidates sure, but I expect the Tory MLA's to make an outsized impact. It's not that much of a bold prediction in my opinion. The Tories do hold a majority of provincial seats on the island.

South Shore-St. Margaret's is trending away from the Tories due to the "Greater Halifaxism" you described. I'd estimate it's about 2/3 rural, 1/3 Halifax suburbia/exurbia. I live in the Sackville riding and it's always been about as Greater Halifax as Mississauga is GTA haha

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

How about Charlottetown?

Yeah, sure I'd throw it on the target list.

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

This especially now that the progressive vote has become more divided. It would be interesting to see how Scheer's leadership would fare if the Tories took 20ish seats from the Liberals, and the Liberals maintained their majority at the expense of the NDP and Bloc, but that looks unlikely now.

[DC Al Fine]

For comparison, what was the Toronto result in 2015?

[DC Al Fine]

Ok, so probably enough to pick up York Centre, but otherwise fortress Toronto should hold.

[DC Al Fine]

Rosemont is the only seat they can hold (it's probably their best shot in Quebec and the one seat they're favoured in) but they'll lose the other two, probably both to the Bloc.

With Steven Guilbeault running for the Libs in Laurier-Ste Marie, I wouldn't assume "probably both to the Bloc"--and in general, I don't know how well positioned the Bloc is these days as an "urban left" proxy option, particularly given how provincially, QS has swallowed up the PQ's urban-left base.  (And because of the QS factor, I'd probably also expect an echo of the Outremont byelection's NDP overperformance-in-defeat.  Overperformance relative to the conventional wisdom that the NDP's reverted to a single-digit-oblivion Quebec status quo, that is.)

The question for Laurier-Sainte Marie is how much will the NDP drop in East Montreal. The Liberals absolute best result on this seat was in the high 30's, and they've struggled to break 25%, even in good years in Quebec. If the NDP collapses, I suspect the Liberals will win it, but if they hold up at all, I'd actually consider Guilbeault's candidacy a point in the Bloc's favour; splitting the urban progressive vote and letting the Bloc come up the middle.

[DC Al Fine]

The Bloc vote in Laurier Ste. Marie was very inflated in 2011 and 2015 because Gilles Duceppe was the candidate. It’s actually a very cosmopolitan socially liberal bohemian riding that went massively Quebec Solidaire provincially. With the NDP running the wife of the very popular Qs MNA. I suspect that it will be very much an NDP/Liberal contest and the BQ won’t be much of a factor.

Oh? I thought it was more working class, like Beaulieu's riding.

[DC Al Fine]

https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)

People think that? That's optimistic. The NDP are in a really rough spot electorally right now.

[DC Al Fine]

MQO reserach is doing polls for each province in Atlantic Canada.  In Newfoundland, Liberals are ahead, but the shift since 2015 is pretty massive, mind you Liberal numbers there were so high reversion to the mean was probably expected.

Liberal 46%
Conservative 38%
NDP 11%
Green 2%
PPC 2%

Regardless of what any poll says - the NDP is almost certain to pick up St. John's East where they are running Jack Harris. He will win on the strength of his personal brand

Absolutely true. Atlantic Canada is where you predict based on local candidates and then adjust for polls, not the other way around.

[DC Al Fine]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Liberals just can't keep gaining traction.

And by the way, why Bernier and his Popular Party has so small support and what about Greens?

Bernier quit the Tories and didn't really bring much of a constituency with him. That is at least in part because the Tories have bad memories of the last party split keeping them out of power. Plus his conversion to right wing populism is quite new, so the party was kind of directionless, caught between libertarianism and right wing populism until quite recently. Overall not a good recipe to pick up a lot of support.

[DC Al Fine]

If (as I gather polls are currently showing) the Tories gain in literally every province but decline or stay about still in Ontario, and Liberals are reduced to a minority government, would Scheer stay around as leader? It'd be pretty easy to point at the improvement and just blame Ford. Or is the perception of Scheer as a non-entity already pretty set at this point? Who might even replace him -- would O'Toole be any better? (Or someone else)?

That's largely a question of expectations, and narrative (kind of like coaches in pro sports), so we won't really know until after the election. For example: before Trudeau's JWR debacle, I suspect  most Tories would have been happy with Scheer holding the Liberals to a minority. Now that Tories have been more or less tied with the Liberals for the past several months, expectations have risen and a Liberal minority would probably be perceived as Scheer fumbling a winnable election. My guess (emphasis on guess) is that if he will survive if he wins the most seats but the Liberals form government anyway, or if he holds the Liberals to a very weak minority, but he's gone if the Liberals win a stronger minority.

There's no obvious leader in waiting right now, which helps Scheer a little bit. Bernier had that spot before, but he's not an option anymore. O'Toole might be the most likely candidate, but again, we will have to see how the election shapes up before we can make a reasonable guess about new leaders.

[DC Al Fine]

What's a rough estimate on where PPC stands now?  Polls seem to be all over from a low of 1% to a max of 5%.

Polling averages have them around 3% or so.

[DC Al Fine]

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287

This is absolutely ridiculous to me. Most of these sites rely on past election results to do their projections. How can they be of any use in the case for a new party? I suppose they can pull numbers out of their a**es to boost candidate numbers for people like Renata Ford or Steven Fletcher, or they might try to some regression analysis based on demographics, but I doubt any of them are doing that.

I guess some regional crosstabs or a riding poll could do it, but I agree it's completely ridiculous. Especially with past precedent; May was in a similar boat in 2008 and they still let her into the debates.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/natnewswatch/status/1163904553437151233

I'm sure Godin is welcome to run if he wants. It would've also been nice if he had entered provincial politics.

Yeah. Parties have limited resources and they ought to spend them on

a) Marginal seats
b) Investing in seats that might trend your way for whatever reason (e.g. IIRC the Tories spent a lot of $$$ in Quebec City in 2004 and 2006).

I can't think of anywhere in New Brunswick that fits those categories for the NDP.

[DC Al Fine]

Right, and to not even have candidates in place for an ordinarily scheduled election in two months?

That's not really that unusual for the NDP though. They're notoriously slow at nominating candidates, even in seats that could be considered targets. Scrolling through Wikipedia, there are still a few seats that the NDP that could reasonably win, that have nominations scheduled for right before the writ drops.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/natnewswatch/status/1163904553437151233

I'm sure Godin is welcome to run if he wants. It would've also been nice if he had entered provincial politics.

Yeah. Parties have limited resources and they ought to spend them on

a) Marginal seats
b) Investing in seats that might trend your way for whatever reason (e.g. IIRC the Tories spent a lot of $$$ in Quebec City in 2004 and 2006).

I can't think of anywhere in New Brunswick that fits those categories for the NDP.

Well, strictly building on 2015, Acadie-Bathurst (where the replacement for Yvan Godin got 39.4%) and Madawaska-Restigouche (NDP 2nd at 26%, almost 10 points ahead of PC incumbent Bernard Valcourt)  That is, *strictly* building.  But it sounds like they're not even trying.  (And oddly enough, NB's a place where the federal NDP in recent elections has noticeably overperformed what they "should" be doing given their dismal provincial record--in both 2008 and more predictably 2011, all their NB candidates got over 15%)

Peesonally, I think the NDP's 'Maritime moment' is over outside of a few urban centres, based on the direction the party is going, but fair point. They aren't ridiculously behind in those seats, and should at least have candidates lined up, especially in Godin's old seat.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/CochraneCBC/status/1163602982828728320

Seems it make to make place for "known" country singer George Canyon.

Is MacKay totally gone from politics? On the question of who has the gravitas to succeed Scheer, where I'd previously suggested O'Toole, it seems like one of the figures on the Canadian right who is best-known, if very controversial, would be MacKay. (Other Harper-era figures who would definitely be strong candidates for the leadership and might have more "presence" than Scheer that come to mind would be Ambrose or James Moore).

Ambrose might return if Scheer loses. Moore has a disabled child, which is part of why he quit back in 2015. I doubt we'll see him in politics again.

[DC Al Fine]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Does Scheer speech about same sex marriages in 2005 had impact on latest CBC forecasts?

Not yet. Canadians don't pay much attention to politics in the summer. I see exactly one poll since the Liberals attacked him on SSM and it shows no change. That's not to say it won't have an effect, but I wouldn't expect to see it until September.