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Adam T
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« Reply #575 on: July 15, 2019, 07:04:25 PM »


As leader of the 'third party'? 

Elizabeth May.

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Poirot
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« Reply #576 on: July 15, 2019, 07:59:05 PM »


Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.
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Poirot
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« Reply #577 on: July 15, 2019, 08:34:54 PM »

I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

Last leadership race the big names took a pass. The prospect of replacing a two term government might look better so my guess is Scheer stays depends if high profile people are interested in the job and organizing behind the scenes. I don't think the Conservative would drop their leader without good replacement options interested like NDP did. 
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mileslunn
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« Reply #578 on: July 15, 2019, 10:50:59 PM »

I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

Last leadership race the big names took a pass. The prospect of replacing a two term government might look better so my guess is Scheer stays depends if high profile people are interested in the job and organizing behind the scenes. I don't think the Conservative would drop their leader without good replacement options interested like NDP did. 

Depends on results.  If the Tories gain both votes and seats but fall short, than I think Scheer is safe, but if the party loses seats I think there will be a lot of pressure on him to resign.  I also think if Tories gain everywhere but Ontario, you could see things get interesting.  Not enough to push Ford out right away, but probably will see some organizing there and MPPs more emboldened to go against him.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #579 on: July 17, 2019, 08:42:23 AM »


Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Svend Robinson, Niki Ashton, Charlie Angus, Guy Caron, Alexandre Boulerice

Some others to think about: REB, Tracey Ramsey, Andrew Cash
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beesley
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« Reply #580 on: July 17, 2019, 08:46:45 AM »


Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Svend Robinson, Niki Ashton, Charlie Angus, Guy Caron, Alexandre Boulerice

Some others to think about: REB, Tracey Ramsey, Andrew Cash

Not a bad list. You could add Peter Julian. Trouble is, it's possible only two of those win (Angus and Boulerice, add Julian for a third). That would be a really bad result for the NDP and I think they can definitely do better - but it isn't outside the realms of possibility.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #581 on: July 17, 2019, 09:24:08 AM »


Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Svend Robinson, Niki Ashton, Charlie Angus, Guy Caron, Alexandre Boulerice

Some others to think about: REB, Tracey Ramsey, Andrew Cash

Not a bad list. You could add Peter Julian. Trouble is, it's possible only two of those win (Angus and Boulerice, add Julian for a third). That would be a really bad result for the NDP and I think they can definitely do better - but it isn't outside the realms of possibility.

Ya, *depending on if they win*

There are a couple other names of candidates that "could" be leadership contenders but have no Parliamentary experience. I'm thinking of a couple of notables from municipal politics:
Laurel Collins in Victoria, Matthew Green in Hamilton Centre or Taylor Bachrach in Skeena-Bulkley Valley

another MP that I wouldn't be surprised if they ran for leadership: Daniel Blakie
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DL
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« Reply #582 on: July 17, 2019, 10:25:40 AM »


Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Svend Robinson, Niki Ashton, Charlie Angus, Guy Caron, Alexandre Boulerice

Some others to think about: REB, Tracey Ramsey, Andrew Cash

Not a bad list. You could add Peter Julian. Trouble is, it's possible only two of those win (Angus and Boulerice, add Julian for a third). That would be a really bad result for the NDP and I think they can definitely do better - but it isn't outside the realms of possibility.

Ya, *depending on if they win*

There are a couple other names of candidates that "could" be leadership contenders but have no Parliamentary experience. I'm thinking of a couple of notables from municipal politics:
Laurel Collins in Victoria, Matthew Green in Hamilton Centre or Taylor Bachrach in Skeena-Bulkley Valley

another MP that I wouldn't be surprised if they ran for leadership: Daniel Blaikie

Anyone who even runs for the NDP leadership MUST be able to speak at least some French (and English). That qualifies Boulerice, Caron, Ashton, Julian, Robinson, REB and Angus (sort of). As far as i know the other names mentioned speak no French. GONG!
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beesley
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« Reply #583 on: July 18, 2019, 02:54:20 AM »



Interesting poll this - voting intention after respondents named their most important issues. The numbers are for each issue's respondents, so each individual voter is included multiple times.
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beesley
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« Reply #584 on: July 19, 2019, 07:56:20 PM »

https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.
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adma
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« Reply #585 on: July 19, 2019, 09:12:41 PM »

https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)
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beesley
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« Reply #586 on: July 20, 2019, 04:44:01 AM »

https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #587 on: July 20, 2019, 05:54:06 AM »

https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)

People think that? That's optimistic. The NDP are in a really rough spot electorally right now.
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beesley
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« Reply #588 on: July 20, 2019, 08:45:34 AM »
« Edited: July 20, 2019, 08:58:02 AM by beesley.CA.UK »

https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)

People think that? That's optimistic. The NDP are in a really rough spot electorally right now.

I don't see how it can happen really. It would either involve the NDP winning back seats like Ottawa Centre, Halifax or Northwest Territories, all of which should stay Liberal, or the NDP regaining their position against the Conservatives and holding up in the West, assuming they don't recover in Quebec. None of those look possible or likely.

Never doubt hyper partisans ability to talk up their chances though. If you listened to them you could expect Liberal wins in Lethbridge and Louis Saint Laurent and Conservative wins in Lac Saint Louis and Victoria.
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adma
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« Reply #589 on: July 20, 2019, 10:21:50 AM »

https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)

People think that? That's optimistic. The NDP are in a really rough spot electorally right now.

I don't see how it can happen really. It would either involve the NDP winning back seats like Ottawa Centre, Halifax or Northwest Territories, all of which should stay Liberal, or the NDP regaining their position against the Conservatives and holding up in the West, assuming they don't recover in Quebec. None of those look possible or likely.

Never doubt hyper partisans ability to talk up their chances though. If you listened to them you could expect Liberal wins in Lethbridge and Louis Saint Laurent and Conservative wins in Lac Saint Louis and Victoria.

I think some of the "net gains" wishful-think argument might involve stuff like "Singhburbia" or wherever Horwathmania reaped Ontario rewards in 2018.

Incidentally, it's worth noting that in Niagara Centre (or Welland, as it was then known), Allen forced Liberal incumbent John Maloney into 3rd place in 2008--and then in the 2011 rematch, the Iggy disaster relegated Maloney to a *really* distant 14% as both NDP and CPC were 40%+.  So maybe a bit of deja vu re Allen's current polling underperformance.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #590 on: July 23, 2019, 07:07:49 AM »

https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)

People think that? That's optimistic. The NDP are in a really rough spot electorally right now.

I don't see how it can happen really. It would either involve the NDP winning back seats like Ottawa Centre, Halifax or Northwest Territories, all of which should stay Liberal, or the NDP regaining their position against the Conservatives and holding up in the West, assuming they don't recover in Quebec. None of those look possible or likely.

Never doubt hyper partisans ability to talk up their chances though. If you listened to them you could expect Liberal wins in Lethbridge and Louis Saint Laurent and Conservative wins in Lac Saint Louis and Victoria.

I think some of the "net gains" wishful-think argument might involve stuff like "Singhburbia" or wherever Horwathmania reaped Ontario rewards in 2018.

Incidentally, it's worth noting that in Niagara Centre (or Welland, as it was then known), Allen forced Liberal incumbent John Maloney into 3rd place in 2008--and then in the 2011 rematch, the Iggy disaster relegated Maloney to a *really* distant 14% as both NDP and CPC were 40%+.  So maybe a bit of deja vu re Allen's current polling underperformance.

This is not unrealistic; Niagara Centre has a long history of voting NDP, mostly provincially but Allen was a two term MP, and is a high profile Candidate taking on a low-profile Liberal MP.

The point I want to make is that campaigns matter. We only have to look at 2015. Polling from August 2015 looked like - NDP 39%, CPC 28%, LPC 25% and we all know how the Third polling party for most of the time then won the election.
This will be an NDP target, so that means resources that may or may not have been there in 2015.

If we look at momentum, the NDP from Ipsos and Nanos (who had weekly polling going) have the NDP up to 18%, from Nanos that a 4% gain in 2 months. There is a mild momentum towards the NDP mostly coming from the Greens I'd wager. We also have a stable lead for the LPC now and a decreasing/stabilizing CPC.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #591 on: July 23, 2019, 03:59:48 PM »

I always take riding polls with a grain of salt.  I think using a whole bunch of them to get overall average perhaps and sometimes they tell you something, after all Mainstreet showed a three way race in Ottawa West-Nepean in 2018 provincial election with NDP narrowly ahead and although NDP came up support, they almost won that riding and that is not a riding they generally perform well in.  On the other hand, they've had some pretty big misses such as Nanaimo by-election or last BC election, showed BC Liberals narrowly ahead in when they came in third and BC Liberals 20 points ahead in Surrey-Fleetwood which they lost by 18 points.  Another big miss was Forum showed Liberals winning Brandon-Souris by-election by 30 points and Tories narrowly held on. 

Every election you get a few shockers, but generally best way to figure out target seats is look at past federal and provincial results.  If a party has never even been competitive in a certain riding or they won it many years ago but haven't been competitive in recent elections (i.e. Tories in Toronto-St. Paul's or NDP in Yorkton-Melville are examples of this) they probably aren't going to win it unless a party is polling at record heights (see NDP in Alberta in 2015) in which you will see them win some of these. 

So in sum any riding where the Liberals didn't win or have a strong second in 2015 are probably not winneable.  For Tories any riding that hasn't voted Tory in last decade either provincially or federally or they haven't had a close second is also off the table and even there, there are some ridings in 2011 they won and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall.  For NDP, unless a major surge, I think you can apply same rule but ignore those that went NDP in Quebec in 2011 (those they won elsewhere are doable in most cases), Alberta in 2015 provincially, and Ontario ones 2018 where NDP never came within 10 points in any other election save that since 1990.
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Smid
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« Reply #592 on: July 23, 2019, 05:17:15 PM »

As is frequently the case, Miles speaks common sense that is so often missing in political hot takes...
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beesley
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« Reply #593 on: July 23, 2019, 06:59:01 PM »

For one example, in one riding poll last time round, Seamus O'Regan lost to Ryan Clearly by a good margin - obviously the Liberals gained and he won with over 50%.

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adma
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« Reply #594 on: July 23, 2019, 08:25:09 PM »

and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #595 on: July 23, 2019, 09:54:40 PM »

and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.
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adma
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« Reply #596 on: July 24, 2019, 06:17:40 AM »

and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.

Though one wild card in Ford Nation turf: Renata Ford's PPC candidacy.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #597 on: July 24, 2019, 06:25:28 AM »

and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.

Though one wild card in Ford Nation turf: Renata Ford's PPC candidacy.

I don't think she's running as part of the Ford clan, though, so that could make a difference as well.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #598 on: July 24, 2019, 06:31:31 AM »

and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.

Though one wild card in Ford Nation turf: Renata Ford's PPC candidacy.

I don't think she's running as part of the Ford clan, though, so that could make a difference as well.

Rob Ford's wife, but definitely OUT with the official Ford Clan who are wrapped around Doug. I think she may grab some of that Ford personal conservative vote, and that may be just enough to keep this with the LPC. Interestingly Etobicoke North was one of the 30+ seats the LPC held after the 2011 disaster, and by 10 points.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #599 on: July 24, 2019, 02:41:59 PM »

and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.

Though one wild card in Ford Nation turf: Renata Ford's PPC candidacy.

I don't think she's running as part of the Ford clan, though, so that could make a difference as well.

Rob Ford's wife, but definitely OUT with the official Ford Clan who are wrapped around Doug. I think she may grab some of that Ford personal conservative vote, and that may be just enough to keep this with the LPC. Interestingly Etobicoke North was one of the 30+ seats the LPC held after the 2011 disaster, and by 10 points.

Also with all the cuts and much of the Ford Nation tending to be lower middle income, there is the question whether that group still supports him or no longer does.  Either way I suspect Tories to do better in Etobicoke North than 2015 even if they drop province wide, but the gap was almost 40 points and don't see them closing that completely.
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