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Poirot
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« Reply #450 on: June 07, 2019, 05:11:08 PM »

Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection
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« Reply #451 on: June 07, 2019, 05:24:33 PM »

What are the percentage of odds that Trudeau wins reelection as Canadian PM this fall ?


If you mean remains PM, I would say quite high, if you mean greatest number of seats, not so great, but polls suggest things are levelling off and Liberals rebounding in Ontario, but not so much elsewhere.  Lets remember Greens and NDP are far closer to Liberals than Tories so as long as those three combined get 170 seats, he will remain PM even if Tories win a plurality of seats.  For Tories they have to get a majority for Scheer to become PM or at least Tories + PPC (who are unlikely to win any seats) get a majority.  I think if Doug Ford wasn't messing up so badly in Ontario, Tories would have a decent shot at a majority, but Doug Ford is really hurting the Tories in Ontario and being the largest province that is a bit of a problem.

Would Bernier lose his own seat? I don't know about that, he is a institution in the Beauce and they love him.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #452 on: June 07, 2019, 11:18:58 PM »

What are the percentage of odds that Trudeau wins reelection as Canadian PM this fall ?


If you mean remains PM, I would say quite high, if you mean greatest number of seats, not so great, but polls suggest things are levelling off and Liberals rebounding in Ontario, but not so much elsewhere.  Lets remember Greens and NDP are far closer to Liberals than Tories so as long as those three combined get 170 seats, he will remain PM even if Tories win a plurality of seats.  For Tories they have to get a majority for Scheer to become PM or at least Tories + PPC (who are unlikely to win any seats) get a majority.  I think if Doug Ford wasn't messing up so badly in Ontario, Tories would have a decent shot at a majority, but Doug Ford is really hurting the Tories in Ontario and being the largest province that is a bit of a problem.

Would Bernier lose his own seat? I don't know about that, he is a institution in the Beauce and they love him.

I think he will, up until his run for Tory leadership race never said much on supply management, but his opposition to supply management will probably hurt him in the riding as his riding has more dairy farmers than any other riding in the country.  He could win, also could split the vote to allow Liberals to come up the middle, but most likely is Tories regain it.
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beesley
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« Reply #453 on: June 08, 2019, 10:34:42 AM »

Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.

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136or142
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« Reply #454 on: June 08, 2019, 03:17:03 PM »

Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



I wonder if she waited out the NDP decision on whether Erin Weir could run under their banner again or not.
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« Reply #455 on: June 08, 2019, 07:31:34 PM »

Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #456 on: June 08, 2019, 07:34:48 PM »

Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.

But it is in line with the increasingly common trend of minorities voting against conservatives.
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Intell
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« Reply #457 on: June 08, 2019, 10:22:38 PM »

Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.

But it is in line with the increasingly common trend of minorities voting against conservatives.

Canada and Australia would disagree but sure.
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adma
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« Reply #458 on: June 08, 2019, 10:25:03 PM »

Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.

But it is in line with the increasingly common trend of minorities voting against conservatives.

"Minorities" in what sense?  First Nations?

If anything, thanks to Ford/Kenney et al, Canada's been a place where minorities (not FN, but definitely ethnoburbia) have been trending *to* conservatives.  And when it comes to "rural extractive areas", Northern Ontario's probably more analogous to, say, northern Sweden than West Virginia...
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lilTommy
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« Reply #459 on: June 09, 2019, 03:32:58 PM »

Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.

But it is in line with the increasingly common trend of minorities voting against conservatives.

"Minorities" in what sense?  First Nations?

If anything, thanks to Ford/Kenney et al, Canada's been a place where minorities (not FN, but definitely ethnoburbia) have been trending *to* conservatives.  And when it comes to "rural extractive areas", Northern Ontario's probably more analogous to, say, northern Sweden than West Virginia...

What we are seeing in Canada is that minorities as a whole (non-white european, non-indigenous/first nations) are swing voters. This is visible in areas like the Vancouver suburbs and Toronto's 905. They gave Harper is majority eventually in 2011, and Trudeau his in 2015.
I don't believe "minorities" are a solid voting block either really, I would say Urban minorities and suburban minorities vote somewhat differently too.
someone who is more knowledgeable on this could comment but I believe in BC the East Asian community (Chinese, Japanese, etc) were far more BC Liberal (right-wing) while the South Asian community (sikh's, Indian's, etc) were more NDP leaning.
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beesley
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« Reply #460 on: June 09, 2019, 03:35:27 PM »

In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.
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adma
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« Reply #461 on: June 09, 2019, 05:36:41 PM »

In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #462 on: June 09, 2019, 05:45:29 PM »

In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

Hmm, that's interesting, could put a wrinkle in what should be a fairly easy Tory pickup.
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DL
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« Reply #463 on: June 09, 2019, 06:31:13 PM »

In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

Hmm, that's interesting, could put a wrinkle in what should be a fairly easy Tory pickup.

What’s in it for her? First of all apparently three other people are running for the Liberal nomination so who knows if she can even win the nomination. Second of all the Tories are heavily favoured to win that seat. The Nova Scotia Liberals are extremely unpopular these days. So what exactly does she gain? Does she think Trudeau might appoint her to the senate ?
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beesley
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« Reply #464 on: June 10, 2019, 06:26:41 AM »

In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

Hmm, that's interesting, could put a wrinkle in what should be a fairly easy Tory pickup.

What’s in it for her? First of all apparently three other people are running for the Liberal nomination so who knows if she can even win the nomination. Second of all the Tories are heavily favoured to win that seat. The Nova Scotia Liberals are extremely unpopular these days. So what exactly does she gain? Does she think Trudeau might appoint her to the senate ?

Definitely agree with you DL.

The law in Canada says that if you are nominated as a federal candidate, you are disqualified from your provincial seat. So Zann, Eddie Orrell, Chris d'Entremont, Alfie Macleod, Warren Steinley and Marie-France Lalonde (that's all as far as I'm aware) will all be affected; considering only Lalonde and Steinley are definite favourites it's a risky move.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #465 on: June 10, 2019, 08:21:43 AM »

In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

Hmm, that's interesting, could put a wrinkle in what should be a fairly easy Tory pickup.

What’s in it for her? First of all apparently three other people are running for the Liberal nomination so who knows if she can even win the nomination. Second of all the Tories are heavily favoured to win that seat. The Nova Scotia Liberals are extremely unpopular these days. So what exactly does she gain? Does she think Trudeau might appoint her to the senate ?

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint
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beesley
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« Reply #466 on: June 10, 2019, 10:31:58 AM »

In other news, Lenore Zann has left the NS NDP, in order to run for the chance to lose to Scott Armstrong in Cumberland-Colchester.

To clarify, she's running federally for the *Liberals*.  (Which blurs the chance-to-lose potential, even if it infuriates the NDP left.)

Hmm, that's interesting, could put a wrinkle in what should be a fairly easy Tory pickup.

What’s in it for her? First of all apparently three other people are running for the Liberal nomination so who knows if she can even win the nomination. Second of all the Tories are heavily favoured to win that seat. The Nova Scotia Liberals are extremely unpopular these days. So what exactly does she gain? Does she think Trudeau might appoint her to the senate ?

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Makes sense - NDP gained Halifax Chebucto and one of the two Dartmouth seats (forget which), whilst losing Chester-St Margaret's and Queens-Shelburne last time and failing to retake Sydney-Whitney Pier.

Is this the only major caucus in Canada with just one man, the rest being women?
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DL
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« Reply #467 on: June 10, 2019, 01:02:22 PM »


This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense
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beesley
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« Reply #468 on: June 10, 2019, 01:46:21 PM »


This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #469 on: June 10, 2019, 02:53:24 PM »


This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.

I think it was fair to say that Truro-Bible Hill wasn't an NDP seat, but a Zann-Seat. I feel her personal popularity/notoriety helped her hold the seat in 2013 and then increase her vote in 2017. I don't see this seat really staying NDP though... unless an equally high profile-well known NDP candidate is in place.

I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing
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beesley
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« Reply #470 on: June 10, 2019, 03:20:13 PM »



I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing

We can always ask Glenn Thibeault how his current long-term political career is going. Needless to say this could be a lot shorter. Agreed, disappointing.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #471 on: June 10, 2019, 03:57:32 PM »

What we are seeing in Canada is that minorities as a whole (non-white european, non-indigenous/first nations) are swing voters. This is visible in areas like the Vancouver suburbs and Toronto's 905. They gave Harper is majority eventually in 2011, and Trudeau his in 2015.
I don't believe "minorities" are a solid voting block either really, I would say Urban minorities and suburban minorities vote somewhat differently too.
someone who is more knowledgeable on this could comment but I believe in BC the East Asian community (Chinese, Japanese, etc) were far more BC Liberal (right-wing) while the South Asian community (sikh's, Indian's, etc) were more NDP leaning.

There's definitely been a big shift to the Conservatives among Chinese Canadians.  South Asians are less likely to vote Conservative than the general population.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #472 on: June 11, 2019, 04:28:20 AM »


This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.

I think it was fair to say that Truro-Bible Hill wasn't an NDP seat, but a Zann-Seat. I feel her personal popularity/notoriety helped her hold the seat in 2013 and then increase her vote in 2017. I don't see this seat really staying NDP though... unless an equally high profile-well known NDP candidate is in place.

I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing

This. Rural Maritime politics are still very candidate based.
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beesley
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« Reply #473 on: June 12, 2019, 02:27:28 PM »


This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.

I think it was fair to say that Truro-Bible Hill wasn't an NDP seat, but a Zann-Seat. I feel her personal popularity/notoriety helped her hold the seat in 2013 and then increase her vote in 2017. I don't see this seat really staying NDP though... unless an equally high profile-well known NDP candidate is in place.

I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing

This. Rural Maritime politics are still very candidate based.

Andrew Younger (although he was Dartmouth rather than a rural seat) seems to be the most striking example from NS, gaining a seat from the NDP in 2009, other than Bill Casey of course.
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toaster
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« Reply #474 on: June 12, 2019, 09:36:16 PM »

Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.



I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.

But it is in line with the increasingly common trend of minorities voting against conservatives.

"Minorities" in what sense?  First Nations?

If anything, thanks to Ford/Kenney et al, Canada's been a place where minorities (not FN, but definitely ethnoburbia) have been trending *to* conservatives.  And when it comes to "rural extractive areas", Northern Ontario's probably more analogous to, say, northern Sweden than West Virginia...

Not sure if Francophones was implied in minorities, also much of the non-French white population in Northern Ontario is "white ethnic" as opposed to WASP.

I think Northern Ontario is much more like rural Quebec - labour left, socialist/subsidize "us" left..  but not so much progressive left.  I think the remaining NDP MPs in the North (including Angus) will lose to Liberals, as much as I hate to say it, due to the NDP leader.  Kind of a "xenophobic left", you might call it.
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