Canadian Election 2019
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #475 on: June 13, 2019, 10:40:07 AM »


This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.

I think it was fair to say that Truro-Bible Hill wasn't an NDP seat, but a Zann-Seat. I feel her personal popularity/notoriety helped her hold the seat in 2013 and then increase her vote in 2017. I don't see this seat really staying NDP though... unless an equally high profile-well known NDP candidate is in place.

I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing

This. Rural Maritime politics are still very candidate based.

Andrew Younger (although he was Dartmouth rather than a rural seat) seems to be the most striking example from NS, gaining a seat from the NDP in 2009, other than Bill Casey of course.

Yeah exactly.

I find when predicting Atlantic elections, it's far better to make picks based on the candidates amd then adjust for the polls, rather than the other way around.
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adma
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« Reply #476 on: June 13, 2019, 05:35:19 PM »


Not sure if Francophones was implied in minorities, also much of the non-French white population in Northern Ontario is "white ethnic" as opposed to WASP.

I think Northern Ontario is much more like rural Quebec - labour left, socialist/subsidize "us" left..  but not so much progressive left.  I think the remaining NDP MPs in the North (including Angus) will lose to Liberals, as much as I hate to say it, due to the NDP leader.  Kind of a "xenophobic left", you might call it.
I've a measured skepticism about such inevitability, in part because (esp. if we're talking about Ontario rather than Quebec) the "xenophobic left" isn't necessary all that "left"--those for whom Jagmeet's race is an issue isn't necessarily the element that'd uniformly default/defect to the Justin Libs.  And a lot of the Charlie Angus base is the sort that might otherwise be in fact Con-leaning, and has been in the past...
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beesley
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« Reply #477 on: June 14, 2019, 01:59:12 AM »



Didn't see this coming. Not sure Kevin Flynn did either.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #478 on: June 16, 2019, 08:21:53 AM »

This happened like 2 weeks but the Toronto-Danforth NDP nominated a candidate. Probably their best shot in Toronto to win back a seat from the Liberals, along with Davenport where Andrew Cash is running to retake his seat.

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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #479 on: June 16, 2019, 10:51:26 AM »

This happened like 2 weeks but the Toronto-Danforth NDP nominated a candidate. Probably their best shot in Toronto to win back a seat from the Liberals, along with Davenport where Andrew Cash is running to retake his seat.



Both are star candidates. The GTA is attracting a lot of the best CPC and NDP candidates.


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lilTommy
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« Reply #480 on: June 17, 2019, 08:51:34 AM »
« Edited: June 17, 2019, 09:32:19 AM by lilTommy »

Over the weekend, at the Ontario NDP convention, Jagmeet Singh released, basically, the platform for 2019 election:
https://www.ndp.ca/courage?fbclid=IwAR2owrUOeBCxRh1E5e3E5WmzEMmfinmrLPjOsD2a14rNVpkU_P0lJ8lKC50

The Star did a pretty decent summary:
https://www.thestar.com/amp/politics/federal/2019/06/16/ndp-election-platform-promises-head-to-toe-health-care.html?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR3xRcFLl-YKu7CWMu7wWLOheYOrZU3mbeB3Vv7FvvOB33GkesV1yFmsg-Y

Summary:
- "goal of making post-secondary education tuition-free" remove the interest from student loans and shift to non-repayable grants.
- cap cellphone bills, Telecom Consumers’ Bill of Rights
- $1 billion per year to support provincial child care programs.
- basic income pilot project,
- drug decriminalization
- change employment insurance so people can qualify after working fewer hours; introduce new payouts so no recipients have to live on less than $1,200 per month.
- Postal Banking, restore door-to-door service
- $5 billion into the federal government’s national housing programs within two years, to build 500,000 new affordable units within a decade.
- In its first four years in power, spend $15 billion to fight climate change by building more public transit, subsidizing zero-emission vehicles that are built in Canada, and funding green programs and infrastructure through a new $3-billion “climate bank.
- a push to retrofit all buildings so they are energy-efficient by 2050 — would create at least 300,00 new jobs.
- Universal pharmacare by the end of 2020, with an initial federal price tag of $10 billion per year.
- will work over the next decade to extend Canada’s health care system into dental, vision and hearing care, mental health services, long term home care and addictions treatment.
- create a new, 1-per-cent tax on people whose net worth is more than $20 million — a 1 per cent tax on the 1 per cent. This would apply to net worth over that amount, so someone worth $25 million would get a 1 per cent tax on their excess $5 million.
- hike the federal corporate income tax from 15 per cent to 18 per cent, increase the top federal income tax bracket, for people earning more than $210,000 per year, from 33 to 35 per cent.
- increasing how much capital gains income is subject to tax ($3Bin revenues), and another $1 billion annually by closing tax loopholes like stock option compensation for corporate executives.
- cancelling tax breaks for the oil and gas industry that are estimated to be worth more than $3 billion per year, redirect into programs listed here
- Introducing a form of Mixed Member Proportional

There's more but I haven't read the whole thing yet! it's like 100 pages!
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #481 on: June 17, 2019, 03:24:40 PM »

I know it's not exactly "on topic" but still posting

https://toronto.citynews.ca/video/2019/06/17/premier-doug-ford-booed-by-crowd-at-raptors-victory-parade/
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Poirot
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« Reply #482 on: June 17, 2019, 07:43:04 PM »

Two Liberal MPs not running. Geng Tan of Don Valley North and Frank Baylis of Pierrefonds-Dollard.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #483 on: June 18, 2019, 06:18:19 AM »

Two Liberal MPs not running. Geng Tan of Don Valley North and Frank Baylis of Pierrefonds-Dollard.

Don Valley North will be "interesting" the conservative candidate is the woman who tried to drink water out of a full sized cardboard box. social media fail.
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #484 on: June 18, 2019, 07:03:17 AM »

Two Liberal MPs not running. Geng Tan of Don Valley North and Frank Baylis of Pierrefonds-Dollard.

Surprising - CPC is targeting neighbouring Willowdale, Markham-Thornhill and Scarboro Agincourt which are all similarly vulnerable, so add that to the mix. Pierrefonds-Dollard is however safe for the Liberals. I'm guessing that with the background of Tan, he would've wanted a higher position as an incentive to stay in politics.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #485 on: June 18, 2019, 08:58:27 AM »

Over the weekend, at the Ontario NDP convention, Jagmeet Singh released, basically, the platform for 2019 election:
https://www.ndp.ca/courage?fbclid=IwAR2owrUOeBCxRh1E5e3E5WmzEMmfinmrLPjOsD2a14rNVpkU_P0lJ8lKC50

The Star did a pretty decent summary:
https://www.thestar.com/amp/politics/federal/2019/06/16/ndp-election-platform-promises-head-to-toe-health-care.html?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR3xRcFLl-YKu7CWMu7wWLOheYOrZU3mbeB3Vv7FvvOB33GkesV1yFmsg-Y

Summary:
- "goal of making post-secondary education tuition-free" remove the interest from student loans and shift to non-repayable grants.
- cap cellphone bills, Telecom Consumers’ Bill of Rights
- $1 billion per year to support provincial child care programs.
- basic income pilot project,
- drug decriminalization
- change employment insurance so people can qualify after working fewer hours; introduce new payouts so no recipients have to live on less than $1,200 per month.
- Postal Banking, restore door-to-door service
- $5 billion into the federal government’s national housing programs within two years, to build 500,000 new affordable units within a decade.
- In its first four years in power, spend $15 billion to fight climate change by building more public transit, subsidizing zero-emission vehicles that are built in Canada, and funding green programs and infrastructure through a new $3-billion “climate bank.
- a push to retrofit all buildings so they are energy-efficient by 2050 — would create at least 300,00 new jobs.
- Universal pharmacare by the end of 2020, with an initial federal price tag of $10 billion per year.
- will work over the next decade to extend Canada’s health care system into dental, vision and hearing care, mental health services, long term home care and addictions treatment.
- create a new, 1-per-cent tax on people whose net worth is more than $20 million — a 1 per cent tax on the 1 per cent. This would apply to net worth over that amount, so someone worth $25 million would get a 1 per cent tax on their excess $5 million.
- hike the federal corporate income tax from 15 per cent to 18 per cent, increase the top federal income tax bracket, for people earning more than $210,000 per year, from 33 to 35 per cent.
- increasing how much capital gains income is subject to tax ($3Bin revenues), and another $1 billion annually by closing tax loopholes like stock option compensation for corporate executives.
- cancelling tax breaks for the oil and gas industry that are estimated to be worth more than $3 billion per year, redirect into programs listed here
- Introducing a form of Mixed Member Proportional

There's more but I haven't read the whole thing yet! it's like 100 pages!

Probably a smart move for the NDP. They desperately need to make some noise and stand out from the progressive crowd. I wonder how this will affect the Liberal platform.
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beesley
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« Reply #486 on: June 18, 2019, 09:49:03 AM »

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=89981

He's a projection of mine - based on what I've posted on EPP, but without tossups.
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Former President tack50
tack50
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« Reply #487 on: June 18, 2019, 12:16:22 PM »

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=89981

He's a projection of mine - based on what I've posted on EPP, but without tossups.

Assuming that projection was right, what would be the outcome? A very unstable Conservative government propped up by BQ? Or some sort of "Coalition of chaos" propping up Trudeau?
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VPH
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« Reply #488 on: June 18, 2019, 12:44:10 PM »

Comprehensive pharmacare by 2020 is ambitious to say the least
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #489 on: June 18, 2019, 12:46:02 PM »

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=89981

He's a projection of mine - based on what I've posted on EPP, but without tossups.

Assuming that projection was right, what would be the outcome? A very unstable Conservative government propped up by BQ? Or some sort of "Coalition of chaos" propping up Trudeau?

Hard to tell as successful deals tend not to be the norm, and as the BQ would be the Kingmakers - (Lib+NDP+Green is only 164.) Deals between parties are also a more recent thing in Canada anyway as the high NDP+Green+BQ total owes itself to recent trends. In my opinion, the most likely outcome is that whatever government is formed would be largely short term. Andrew Scheer could do a Joe Clark and govern as an unstable minority, but unlike Joe Clark, who was no confidenced once his budget turned out not to be palatable as he still stuck to his platform, Scheer would have to make a lot more concessions. There is the option that neither the NDP or BQ support either party, leaving a minority situation for the Conservatives by default, as happened in 2006. As we saw in 2008, any coalition/c&s on the left would be a coalition of chaos. Unlike the current agreements in NB and BC, the smaller parties are considerably larger and hold more leverage.

It reminds me of the forecasts for the 2015 Election over here (I live in the UK rather than Canada currently) - the opposition leading the government with the third party leading and the two small ones gaining, but that turned out differently. Oof the 21 seats I have as 'Tilt Conservative' only Jonquiere could go to the Bloc, and the rest would go to a progressive party, so if the Conservatives got much less than this, they could struggle.

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lilTommy
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« Reply #490 on: June 18, 2019, 03:55:12 PM »

Trans Canada pipeline has been approved:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-trans-mountain-trudeau-cabinet-decision-1.5180269?fbclid=IwAR1a35cg-2WVKCH1eVltWkj9PVsMvFfjDBN1iNIhc1fl-7hcWCK_jUTcbjg

Expect a bump for the NDP and Greens (even though they support pipelines in general, but not this one). May see some soft centre-centre-right support move back from CPC to the LPC to compensate on the loss they will have in votes to the NDP and Greens. Expect some loss in support in Quebec too.
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beesley
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« Reply #491 on: June 19, 2019, 01:19:47 AM »

Trans Canada pipeline has been approved:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-trans-mountain-trudeau-cabinet-decision-1.5180269?fbclid=IwAR1a35cg-2WVKCH1eVltWkj9PVsMvFfjDBN1iNIhc1fl-7hcWCK_jUTcbjg

Expect a bump for the NDP and Greens (even though they support pipelines in general, but not this one). May see some soft centre-centre-right support move back from CPC to the LPC to compensate on the loss they will have in votes to the NDP and Greens. Expect some loss in support in Quebec too.

Pretty bad electorally - doubt that the small centre right party will be significant, and probably wouldn't keep them any Alberta seats still, but they may have just given Svend Robinson his seat in Parliament.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #492 on: June 19, 2019, 06:37:05 AM »

Trans Canada pipeline has been approved:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-trans-mountain-trudeau-cabinet-decision-1.5180269?fbclid=IwAR1a35cg-2WVKCH1eVltWkj9PVsMvFfjDBN1iNIhc1fl-7hcWCK_jUTcbjg

Expect a bump for the NDP and Greens (even though they support pipelines in general, but not this one). May see some soft centre-centre-right support move back from CPC to the LPC to compensate on the loss they will have in votes to the NDP and Greens. Expect some loss in support in Quebec too.

Pretty bad electorally - doubt that the small centre right party will be significant, and probably wouldn't keep them any Alberta seats still, but they may have just given Svend Robinson his seat in Parliament.

Agreed, I'm thinking more of a bump in say Ontario, or a stabilization and perhaps a small bit in Alberta; Edmonton Centre and maybe Calgary Centre might feel a little more comfortable, the more "progressive" parts of the big cities (minus Edmonton-Strathcona which i'd normally say is a good call for the NDP, but I honestly can't tell). Might also have made Goodale breath a little easier in Regina-Wascana.
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Poirot
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« Reply #493 on: June 19, 2019, 04:52:12 PM »

Steven Guilbeault will finally announce he is seeking the Liberal nomination in Laurier-Sainte-Marie. He defended the environment record of the government claining it's the government who has done the most for environment. He was against Trans Mountain. It will be interesting to see if voters who have the environment as a priority will follow the environment star.

The Green party is running Jamil Azzaoui, seems to be a singer.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1182432/jamil-candidat-parti-vert-elections-federales-laurier-sainte-marie-montreal
Maybe they should have run the Green co-leader to face Guilbeault since it was expected he would run there. The Bloc will run an author who was the candidate in the Outremont by-election. Could indicate they don't think they can win, could not run someone with a higher public profile ?
A riding with young people so the more they split between NDP and Greens, it's easier for Libs to win and Guilbeault has the personal environment brand.   
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Poirot
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« Reply #494 on: June 19, 2019, 05:26:19 PM »

The Liberals will not be represented by an Italian in Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel. Form imam Hassan Guillet is the candidate.

Former PQ health minister Réjean Hébert will probably run for the Liberal party. Trudeau met him last winter to recruit him. His issue is homecare. He said it's the progressive party who has a chance to win. For the riding, Sherbrooke or somewhere in greater Montreal were mentioned.   
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #495 on: June 20, 2019, 03:06:41 AM »

Steven Guilbeault will finally announce he is seeking the Liberal nomination in Laurier-Sainte-Marie. He defended the environment record of the government claining it's the government who has done the most for environment. He was against Trans Mountain. It will be interesting to see if voters who have the environment as a priority will follow the environment star.

The Green party is running Jamil Azzaoui, seems to be a singer.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1182432/jamil-candidat-parti-vert-elections-federales-laurier-sainte-marie-montreal
Maybe they should have run the Green co-leader to face Guilbeault since it was expected he would run there. The Bloc will run an author who was the candidate in the Outremont by-election. Could indicate they don't think they can win, could not run someone with a higher public profile ?
A riding with young people so the more they split between NDP and Greens, it's easier for Libs to win and Guilbeault has the personal environment brand.   

From what I've heard, the Bloc think they have a far better chance in Hochelaga, their candidate there, Simon Marchand, fought the seat last time and has been working hard for a while. Neither are definitive.

The Liberals will not be represented by an Italian in Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel. Form imam Hassan Guillet is the candidate.

Former PQ health minister Réjean Hébert will probably run for the Liberal party. Trudeau met him last winter to recruit him. His issue is homecare. He said it's the progressive party who has a chance to win. For the riding, Sherbrooke or somewhere in greater Montreal were mentioned.   

The two best options seem to be Sherbrooke and Pierrefonds-Dollard, but neither are perfect for him.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #496 on: June 20, 2019, 08:01:55 PM »

The NDP have dropped their candidate in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour over anti-Semitic comments.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #497 on: June 21, 2019, 02:43:41 PM »

Rob Ford's widow is running for the People's Party in Etobicoke North
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #498 on: June 21, 2019, 02:46:50 PM »


Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.
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DL
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« Reply #499 on: June 21, 2019, 03:01:04 PM »


Further proof that the Fords only care about their name and actually have little regard for the OPCs/CPC. But Kirsty Duncan should still be re-elected.

Its not quite as simple as that...Renata Ford is "one Ford" - but she seems to be on the outs with the rest of the Ford family since she is suing Doug Ford for stealing money from her. I suspect that all the rest of "the Fords" will pull out all stops to ensure she is crushed like a bug
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