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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #525 on: June 26, 2019, 12:55:03 AM »

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?
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beesley
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« Reply #526 on: June 26, 2019, 05:55:37 AM »

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?

They would have won it in 2011 by 500 votes (redistributed), so I doubt if the boundaries had changed then they would've scored that high a win, but yeah, you're right on the rest of it.



Thanks for the reply. 

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.

For a party like the Greens a lot depends on where they actually target, so I don't see them going for Cape Breton - the two seats were to my knowledge the only two where the Liberals won a majority of electors, not just votes. That didn't even happen in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. But I agree with you that Cape Breton is a more diverse place than it would first appear.

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.
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adma
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« Reply #527 on: June 26, 2019, 07:04:43 AM »

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

How about Charlottetown?
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adma
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« Reply #528 on: June 26, 2019, 07:06:19 AM »

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

Though the "local factor" of Scheer's leadership could just as well boost the Cons, instead.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #529 on: June 26, 2019, 07:33:27 AM »

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Why not South Shore-St Margarets?  I might even put that and Sackville ahead of the Cape Breton seats or at least Sydney-Victoria--unless they're both overly touched by Greater Halifax-ism at this point..

If it were a generic election with generic candidates sure, but I expect the Tory MLA's to make an outsized impact. It's not that much of a bold prediction in my opinion. The Tories do hold a majority of provincial seats on the island.

South Shore-St. Margaret's is trending away from the Tories due to the "Greater Halifaxism" you described. I'd estimate it's about 2/3 rural, 1/3 Halifax suburbia/exurbia. I live in the Sackville riding and it's always been about as Greater Halifax as Mississauga is GTA haha Cheesy

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

How about Charlottetown?

Yeah, sure I'd throw it on the target list.
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beesley
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« Reply #530 on: June 26, 2019, 07:45:25 AM »

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

How about Charlottetown?

I did a long post on EPP about Charlottetown, which I've quoted below. I think it'll likely go Liberal again; I honestly think Fredericton is a far better shot for the Greens. Not that they don't do well in Charlottetown, but with small parties there's a fine line between seats they win, and seats they do well in.

Quote
I am no Liberal advocate, and I've been confident about the Green's chances elsewhere, but some questions remain unanswered here. First of all, if Guelph is listed as Liberal on this (which I agree with,) I'm not entirely sure why this would be closer, the provincial result there was better than here; the Greens did better and the Liberals actually won two seats against the odds as opposed to placing fourth. This area is still ripe for a Green breakthrough, the Southern part of the riding could see many Green votes, and whereas the Liberals have to worry about 6 or so seats in New Brunswick, this and another seat in PEI, 5 seats in Nova Scotia and 1 in Newfoundland, the Greens can focus on two in Atlantic Canada. Naturally the Liberals have a fundraising advantage, so that may be offset. Sean Casey is a good MP, and unlike in Guelph/Esquimalt etc. this riding is tiny, and Sean will be a more localised and recognisable face within the community. The Greens tend to do better in open races anyway (or NDP seats), not ones with a decent Liberal incumbent. But ultimately the provincial election is a completely different scenario. That was a choice between which of the other two parties (the NDP had no representation or momentum here) could be trusted as an alternative to the long-serving Liberals. The federal election will be a straight battle between the Liberals and Conservatives. As I spend some of my time in the UK, I remember 2015 - there UKIP were polling similarly, having also held two seats at dissolution, and we were talking about UKIP winning seats like Castle Point, Boston and Skegness, Great Grimsby and of course South Thanet. The GPEW were wondering if they could gain Norwich South (where they went backwards) and Bristol West. In reality, they won a single seat. Now, I'm not saying that the GPC will do as badly, but I'm saying that once they get their four on Vancouver Island, it's going to be a tough fight from there. So I'll call this as Liberal for now. But if the Greens are truly contesting, that is a different scenario to our current one, and so at that point I will reconsider. Otherwise, this is a Liberal seat, and should certainly stay that way.

So I think the Greens have a chance. But this is a far tougher fight for them.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #531 on: June 26, 2019, 03:14:28 PM »

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?

They would have won it in 2011 by 500 votes (redistributed), so I doubt if the boundaries had changed then they would've scored that high a win, but yeah, you're right on the rest of it.



Thanks for the reply. 

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.

For a party like the Greens a lot depends on where they actually target, so I don't see them going for Cape Breton - the two seats were to my knowledge the only two where the Liberals won a majority of electors, not just votes. That didn't even happen in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. But I agree with you that Cape Breton is a more diverse place than it would first appear.

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

I remember Hatman went through the redistributed numbers in 2015 including for Regina-Lewvan.  It may not have been as much as a redistributed 10% win in 2011 but I'm sure it was more than 500 votes.
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beesley
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« Reply #532 on: June 26, 2019, 04:20:34 PM »

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?

They would have won it in 2011 by 500 votes (redistributed), so I doubt if the boundaries had changed then they would've scored that high a win, but yeah, you're right on the rest of it.



Thanks for the reply.  

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.

For a party like the Greens a lot depends on where they actually target, so I don't see them going for Cape Breton - the two seats were to my knowledge the only two where the Liberals won a majority of electors, not just votes. That didn't even happen in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. But I agree with you that Cape Breton is a more diverse place than it would first appear.

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

I remember Hatman went through the redistributed numbers in 2015 including for Regina-Lewvan.  It may not have been as much as a redistributed 10% win in 2011 but I'm sure it was more than 500 votes.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/trans2013&document=p46&lang=e

It was slightly more - 506 votes.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #533 on: June 26, 2019, 04:28:15 PM »

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?

They would have won it in 2011 by 500 votes (redistributed), so I doubt if the boundaries had changed then they would've scored that high a win, but yeah, you're right on the rest of it.



Thanks for the reply.  

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.

For a party like the Greens a lot depends on where they actually target, so I don't see them going for Cape Breton - the two seats were to my knowledge the only two where the Liberals won a majority of electors, not just votes. That didn't even happen in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. But I agree with you that Cape Breton is a more diverse place than it would first appear.

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

I remember Hatman went through the redistributed numbers in 2015 including for Regina-Lewvan.  It may not have been as much as a redistributed 10% win in 2011 but I'm sure it was more than 500 votes.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/trans2013&document=p46&lang=e

It was slightly more - 506 votes.

Thanks for the correction.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #534 on: June 26, 2019, 05:48:34 PM »

Quebec Proud is sending automated text messages about Quebec producing their own gas instead of "importing it from Trump's USA".
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Zyzz
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« Reply #535 on: June 26, 2019, 07:28:32 PM »

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

Though the "local factor" of Scheer's leadership could just as well boost the Cons, instead.

I wonder if Ralph Goodale can hold on Regina.
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adma
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« Reply #536 on: June 26, 2019, 09:31:49 PM »

I wonder if Ralph Goodale can hold on Regina.

If he could survive the Iggy bust, he could survive the Scheer bump.  (Then again, Jim Bradley in Ontario was thought indestructable...until last year.)
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beesley
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« Reply #537 on: June 27, 2019, 02:34:47 AM »


I wonder if Ralph Goodale can hold on Regina.


So it would seem... but there are other seats seats Iggy won that are ripe for a Conservative pickup (or at least were until Doug Ford weakened the CPC in Ontario) such as Markham-Thornhill and Scarborough-Agincourt. Goodale is still a mild favourite in my view, but I wouldn't rule out a gain here.
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beesley
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« Reply #538 on: June 28, 2019, 02:49:43 PM »

Good news for my party: Tilly O'Neill-Gordon was nominated as the CPC candidate in Miramichi-Grand Lake. This is one of the more areas of NB more palatable to the CPC regardless of how right they go, with the PANB doing well. Despite previous Liberal strength, O'Neill-Gordon was a popular MP who held Finnigan to under 50% (a comparatively great result.)
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« Reply #539 on: June 30, 2019, 10:15:59 PM »

http://338canada.com/map.htm

Canada has our own Nate Silver by name of Eric Grenier.
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beesley
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« Reply #540 on: July 01, 2019, 01:58:33 AM »


He's great as are Philippe Fournier and Robert Martin.

https://leantossup.ca is also a good website imo.

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Smid
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« Reply #541 on: July 01, 2019, 03:11:47 AM »


He's great as are Philippe Fournier and Robert Martin.

https://leantossup.ca is also a good website imo.



Robert Martin launched a podcast about a week ago, too.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #542 on: July 02, 2019, 09:40:05 AM »


Hatman doesn't like Eric Grenier.
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Poirot
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« Reply #543 on: July 03, 2019, 03:28:13 PM »

Maybe there is some confusion. 338canada.com is Philippe J. Fournier (alos does qc125)

Grenier did ThreeHundredEight.com but is now on CBC politics. He has a poll average and number of seats projection but I don't think he shows individual riding.

Since the election is coming maybe Tooclosetocall will reactivate soon.
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beesley
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« Reply #544 on: July 08, 2019, 02:57:37 AM »



In addition Geng Tan's wife is running, which is odd when you consider he said he stepped down to be closer to family. I would suspect as he was never given a cabinet/parlsec role despite his expertise in science, he probably felt he could be doing something better that was closer to home.

Don Valley North is of course a fairly marginal seat - but the Liberals are likely the favourites. Out of that bbelt of suburban and exurban diverse GTA seats (incl. York Centre, Markham-Thornhill, Richmond Hill, Scarborough-Agincourt, Markham-Unionville, Scarborough North, Willowdale) it's probably going to be onr of the most out of reach for the CPC (Scarborough North is also quite tricky)
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Poirot
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« Reply #545 on: July 08, 2019, 08:19:07 PM »

Quebec Proud is sending automated text messages about Quebec producing their own gas instead of "importing it from Trump's USA".

I received an automated phone message and it was about Trudreau and Blanchet supporting a carbon tax (or price on carbon don't remember the exact words).
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Poirot
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« Reply #546 on: July 08, 2019, 08:45:50 PM »

Former PQ health minister Réjean Hébert will probably run for the Liberal party. Trudeau met him last winter to recruit him. His issue is homecare. He said it's the progressive party who has a chance to win. For the riding, Sherbrooke or somewhere in greater Montreal were mentioned.   

The two best options seem to be Sherbrooke and Pierrefonds-Dollard, but neither are perfect for him.

Hébert will seek the nomination in Longueuil - Saint-Hubert. Declared candidate in Sherbrooke wanted to go to nomination meeting and not wihtdraw. But in Longueuil - Saint-Hubert there is someone who declared in February. Eric Beaulieu has been on city council for 10 years and left the position of Vice President of the executive committee a few weeks ago. 
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lilTommy
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« Reply #547 on: July 09, 2019, 06:49:18 AM »

Weekly Nanos numbers,change since last week:

LPC - 34.65% - +0.15
CPC - 30.38% - -1.32
NDP - 17.91% - +1.37
GRN - 8..77% - -1.03

I wish I could see the regionals but Nanos now makes you subscribe so pfft.

Trend: LPC have gained about 4% since June, the NDP gained about 2%. This is the highest the NDP has polled since March. Gains here for the LPC and NDP at the expense of the CPC, the CPC lost about 4% since June, the Greens are backdown to their normal polling averages, losing about 3% since June.

For the LPC and NDP in particular, the trend is even better when you go back two months and look at May, where we had highs for the CPC and Greens, vs current polling:

LPC - 30.64% - +3.74 (vs current)
CPC - 35.89% - -5.51
NDP - 14.19% - +3.72
GRN - 11.14% - -2.37
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« Reply #548 on: July 09, 2019, 08:40:59 PM »

I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #549 on: July 09, 2019, 10:29:15 PM »

I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.
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