2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[ajc0918]

NJ GOP on track for a nice thrashing.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1012410105097347072

Winnable.

[ajc0918]

I haven't seen this posted anywhere yet.

CA-22 (PPP) [Paid for by End Citizens United]

David Nunes (R) - 49%
Andrew Janz (D) - 41%

http://endcitizensunited.org/press-releases/new-poll-ca-22-race-within-eight-points/

[ajc0918]

Ipsos/Reuters, June 24-28, 1810 registered voters

D 45 (+4)
R 35 (-2)

Wow

[ajc0918]

 52% of respondents think we are "Off on the wrong track" including 47% of independents. That doesn't bode well for the ruling party.

[ajc0918]

WaPo/Schar - Dems lead 47-37 nationwide, 49-37 in battlegrounds

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/national/washington-post-schar-school-poll-us-and-congressional-battlegrounds/2313/

Dang... +12 in Battleground Seats is wild.

[ajc0918]

Here's that Civitas NC-09 poll: https://www.nccivitas.org/2018/civitas-poll-mccready-leads-nc-09-jobs-economy-top-election-issues/

McCready (D) 43
Harris (R) 36
Scott (L) 3

July 5-8, 543 likely voters.

Nice. Maybe it's time to move this to Toss Up instead of Lean R?

[ajc0918]

Here's that Civitas NC-09 poll: https://www.nccivitas.org/2018/civitas-poll-mccready-leads-nc-09-jobs-economy-top-election-issues/

McCready (D) 43
Harris (R) 36
Scott (L) 3

July 5-8, 543 likely voters.

Nice. Maybe it's time to move this to Toss Up instead of Lean R?

Sabato  has had this seat at tossup since the primary. I personally consider it a tossup, and I don't see it moving from there unless something drastic happens.

Gotcha. I was looking at Cook.

[ajc0918]

NY-19 (DCCC):

Delgado (D) 49
Faso (R-inc) 42

545 LV, June 27-28 (MoE: 4.2%)

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/dccc-poll-new-york

Damn that's surprisingly low for Faso especially considering this is a 51-44 Trump district.

Trump's approval underwater at 39/53.

[ajc0918]

NC13 Civitas: Budd 40% Manning 35%

This seems like a trash poll to have 25% undecided but Manning down by 5 wouldn't surprise me.

[ajc0918]

FL-25 Diaz-Balart in trouble?

Initial ask:

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After gun control questions:

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Full results:
https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/FL-CD-25-ARS-May-2018-2-Questionnaire-1.pdf

[ajc0918]

Dems are probably not winning FL-25 this year but I expect our 2020 nominee to carry it based on recent trends. Eventually (by 2024) this will be blue at the congressional level. Of course the next redistricting may cut out the Collier part of the district as well.

Yeah it's going to be hard to carve out a GOP district in Miami-Dade in 2020. And given that SW FL will likely get a new seat, it will only make the Miami-Dade districts more compact.

[ajc0918]

https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/FL-CD-25-ARS-May-2018-2-Questionnaire-1.pdf

PPP internal for Dem outside group in FL-25:

Flores (Dem): 39
Diaz-Balart(GOP): 46

Generic D: 45
Generic R: 47

Internal poll, GOP still ahead in generic ballot and match up; seems pretty unremarkable, no?

... oh

(Diaz-Balart won by nearly 2:1 margin in 2016. That even a partisan internal poll could show him <50% and within single digits is awful for him, and most every other Republican this year)

He's facing a much better challenger.

[ajc0918]

CO-06:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1021758738963857408

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021772134320877568

AHHHHHHHH

BOOM

Rothfus will be Lambinated

[ajc0918]

Quinnipiac:

Democrats 51% (+1)
Republicans 39% (-2)

Source

Republicans: Republican +83
Democrats: Demoratic +90
Independents: Democratic +17

Men: Republican +2
Women: Democratic +25

College Educated Whites: Democratic +13
Non-College Educated Whites: Republican +11

18-34: Democratic +26
35-49: Democratic +2
50-64: Democratic +9
65+: Democratic +14

White Men: Republican +14
White Women: Democratic +14

Whites: Democratic +1
Blacks: Democratic +62
Hispanics: Democratic +43

The young people will win.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1027721445869277185?s=21

We will have to see if the Kim camp has a poll they can counter this with.

D+1

[ajc0918]

CA-45: Global Strategy Group (D), July 26-31, 500 likely voters (live caller poll)

Mimi Walters (R, inc) 45%
Katie Porter 44%

Mimi Imfurst Walters was number third one in the voting I could NOT believe it

[ajc0918]

CA-45: Global Strategy Group (D), July 26-31, 500 likely voters (live caller poll)

Mimi Walters (R, inc) 45%
Katie Porter 44%

Mimi Imfurst Walters was number third one in the voting I could NOT believe it

Do not attack her fans. 

Of the sh**t that I've seen, she doesn't have that many.

He was making a Ru Paul's drag race reference (as was I)

[ajc0918]

CA-45: Global Strategy Group (D), July 26-31, 500 likely voters (live caller poll)

Mimi Walters (R, inc) 45%
Katie Porter 44%

Mimi Imfurst Walters was number third one in the voting I could NOT believe it

Do not attack her fans.  

Of the sh**t that I've seen, she doesn't have that many.

He was making a Ru Paul's drag race reference (as was I)

So was I. Rewatch the clip.

I’ll sashay away now

[ajc0918]

TX-32 Democratic internal poll
Pete Sessions (R) - 47%
Colin Allred (D) - 45%

Trump at 41% approval and Sessions at 38% approval

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/democratic-poll-shows-close-race-pete-sessions-seat-texas

Not sure what to make of it. I guess it confirms this is a real race.

[ajc0918]

*raises eyebrow*

I do think Woodall is in more danger than Handel; though.

The same thought.

It would make sense given that GA-07 is 15% less white than GA-06.

[ajc0918]

In this NBC poll of millennials, the the GCB has the GOP garnering paltry support from Blacks, Asians, and Latinx with 8%, 9%, and also 9% respectively for the 2018 midterms.

https://t.co/jrMBgwf8Ff

Devastating.

[ajc0918]

FL-16 - Anzalone Liszt Research Group (Shapiro Internal)

Buchanan (R) - 48%
Shapiro (D) - 44%

https://voteshapiro2018.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/08/POLL-SUMMARY-FL-CD-16-AUG-2018-2.pdf

FL-16 is Trump+11.

[ajc0918]

NC-02 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll for Linda Coleman-D):

45% Linda Coleman (D)
44% George Holding (R-Inc.)
  5% Jeff Matemu (L)

The poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, was conducted between Aug. 23 and Aug. 27 and covered 401 likely voters in the 2nd Congressional District. The district covers parts or all of Wake, Franklin, Harnett, Johnston, Nash, and Wilson counties.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article217851615.html

This district was Holding+14 in 2016 and Trump+10.

This district remains a Tossup, just as it's always been.

If NC-02 is a toss up is NC-09 tilt D?